pigglewiggle
Well-Known Member
I get it. I'm just using it as an excuse to take a second vacation this year because we must. This was our off year for Disney.
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- Thread starter pheneix
- Start date
I get it. I'm just using it as an excuse to take a second vacation this year because we must. This was our off year for Disney.
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
They also failed to realize when you have the most popular theme park on earth, you should keep doing more of what your current visitors like - you don’t need to reinvent the wheel!
Willmark
Well-Known Member
In a way Disney is this currently:
Space Shuttle Challenger disaster - Wikipedia
Not that its going to suddenly explode but rather the underlying causes are all there for anyone who wants to look at it. Some simply don't.
The problems that brought down the Challenger were started from its earliest inception and flawed by many factors and by a number of key assumptions. Assumptions, that turned out to be catastrophic.
This is a case where wiki does a good job highlighting the chain of events. But of particular note in the Rogers Commission that investigated the "accident" there was a rogue agent, an agent provocateur if you will in Richard Feynman. I won't go into all the details, but he was particularly scathing of NASA and their "Go Fever" of getting up to 50 launches a year to their complete misunderstanding of what margin of safety actually means.
How this applies to Disney? A quote from Feynman himself:
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."
Disney would be wise to heed that. The warning signs are all there, just a question of whether or not they want to see them.
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I get it. I'm just using it as an excuse to take a second vacation this year because we must. This was our off year for Disney.
I think the bigger near term thing is “if there’s any old school stuff you like, big or small. See it now. Cause that’s the low hanging fruit”
Oh my god… this is the example I’ve used about Disney for years.In a way Disney is this currently:
Space Shuttle Challenger disaster - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Not that its going to suddenly explode but rather the underlying causes are all there for anyone who wants to look at it. Some simply don't.
The problems that brought down the Challenger were started from its earliest inception and flawed by many factors but a number of key assumptions. Assumptions that turned out to be catastrophic.
This is a case where wiki does a job highlighting the chain of events. But of particular not in the Rodgers commission that investigated the "accident" had a rogue agent, an agent provocateurs if you will in Richard Feynman. I wont go into all the details but he was particularly scathing of NASA and their "Go Fever" of getting up to 50 launches a year to their complete misunderstanding of what margin of safety actually means.
How this applies to Disney? A quote from Feynman himself:
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."
Disney would be wise to heed that. The warning signs are all there, just a question of when.
The decline never happened. The business they have is melting apart in real time. All the stuff we warned about festered and festered and it’s going off at once.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
So you're saying I'm right again?
Detractors (fans?) are going to be upset with you. /sarcasm.
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The castle parks are a visitor destination like no other on earth. Ppl say they can never be a museum. Well normal ppl go because the mainstream appeal of their collective work stands the rest of time.
Don’t be cheap. Offer the new and the old.
IanDLBZF
Well-Known Member
If they sell to a third party, like what was rumored in the past when the rumors of them selling WDW to the Chinese came about, and said third party is based outside of the US, then we could have problems.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Agree
But from an operational standpoint…at least in Orlando…it’s not possible.
They lost the flexibility to handle their own crowds.
How? Bobs years of not building anything new…couple with bobs years of replacing old and calling it new…and lots of timeshare blocks.
You have almost the same attraction capacity now as you did in 2000…with a 25%+ increase in attendance.
Math works…but not when you use the the wrong numbers in the formula.
That battle was lost about 15 years ago…when they decided overcrowding would be a solid profit strategy with no repercussions in perpetuity.
GhostHost1000
Premium Member
Me reading this thread
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
…oh that’s our next battle…that’s already been lost.
They’ve got as much chance of winning that one as the Italian army.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Defense of bob despite the facts really doesn’t change muchI have no idea what any of this means as I'm not a finance person, but when I read this I can't help but immediately think that I better go to WDW this year before they shutter it. Helps me justify a trip.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
The Rogers Commission and Boisjoly's lectures on whistle blowing and ethics in leadership should be required for every MBA and they should not be allowed to graduate until they can prove they have absorbed the teachings (half joking.)
This sums up NASA and from what you are saying? Disney's issues? Potentially very much the same.
"An accident rooted in history"
Rogers Commission Report - Wikipedia
mightynine
Well-Known Member
A good ol' insider musin' thread. In.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I could probably craft the “due to overwhelming guest demand” blip on the website right now…
…but it will crash so no one will ever see it
GhostHost1000
Premium Member
they probably spent $789k on designers to draw some stitch and others character crash screens to make it feel more magicalI could probably craft the “due to overwhelming guest demand” blip on the website right now…
…but it will crash so no one will ever see it
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The Rogers Commission and Boisjoly's lectures on whistle blowing and ethics in leadership should be required for every MBA and they should not be allowed to graduate until they can prove they have absorbed the teachings (half joking.)
This sums up NASA and from what you are saying? Disney's issues? Potentially very much the same.
"An accident rooted in history"
Rogers Commission Report - Wikipedia
That’s funny because I was jsut rereading part of the Roger’s commission history on the anniversary the other day…
Very similar correlation regarding mistakes…where they attempted to tell people what they saw wasn’t the case because a pre-determined, inflexible “strategic” plan that wasn’t realistic
Willmark
Well-Known Member
You mean like this forumala?
The Drake Equation
N= R * F * Ne * Fl * Fi * Fc * L
Drake equation - Wikipedia
Drake was a great scientist, but as he notes its simply an organizing principal for the equation (and by extension thought exercise) as several variables aren't known. Seems Disney is doing the same, just "plug in a few numbers here and there and presto! Profit!"
One point I haven’t made yet is how 2024 is going to be the worst year in Disneys history. Absolutely in its modern history as far back as 2010. But really it’s probably be the worst ever, even when accounting for how different Disney is.
Movie studio? Cooked. Streaming? Loses money. TV networks? Messy. ESPN? Literally selling a stake of their own network because they can’t afford the rights NFL wants (no one can tbh). Theme parks? Well we’re seeing compelling evidence they are cooling off fast.
So much has hit the fan so fast. Hard to keep track of it all.
Movie studio? Cooked. Streaming? Loses money. TV networks? Messy. ESPN? Literally selling a stake of their own network because they can’t afford the rights NFL wants (no one can tbh). Theme parks? Well we’re seeing compelling evidence they are cooling off fast.
So much has hit the fan so fast. Hard to keep track of it all.
Also, another random.
I don’t know how you expand magic kingdoms capacity. The difficulties they have managing this volume with their transit system don’t change. They get worse. MK just gets more overrun and more charm sucked out as they need more concrete just to move people.
They should have built a third Disneyland in the USA a long time ago. Best way to finally break the hold. Give the people another park to see. The destination they know they want to see.
I don’t know how you expand magic kingdoms capacity. The difficulties they have managing this volume with their transit system don’t change. They get worse. MK just gets more overrun and more charm sucked out as they need more concrete just to move people.
They should have built a third Disneyland in the USA a long time ago. Best way to finally break the hold. Give the people another park to see. The destination they know they want to see.