Resale Prices Down?

[Club Cooloholic]

Just doing a little perusing, but not actually looking to buy, I noticed that resale prices for AKL are a bit lower than when I was looking last summer. Maybe there is more inventory this time of year but prices that were being listed at 110 to 115 and over are now down to 107.

 

[FCivish3]

According to this website: https://www.disneydvcresale.com/Dis..._max=&cpp_min=&cpp_max=&price_min=&price_max=
Animal Kingdom contracts are being listed at about $99 per point up to $125 per point. But the most common mid point is probably around $108. So, I do think you are right, and it is off just a bit. In December, some of my relatives bought a 250 point contract (loaded) for $110 a point. Perhaps they could have bought a bit lower. Perhaps not.

 

[Lensman]

Just doing a little perusing, but not actually looking to buy, I noticed that resale prices for AKL are a bit lower than when I was looking last summer. Maybe there is more inventory this time of year but prices that were being listed at 110 to 115 and over are now down to 107.

I think dvcresalemarket.com does a good job of tracking average resale prices. Their data is only up to Feb 2019 so far: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2019/

The monthly fluctuations seem to be great enough that I don't see a strong trend one way or the other.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Jeez, lol I need to sell my points. I think I purchased at the Beach club when it when it first went on sale. I did buy direct, I think I paid 80 bucks a point. now they are hanging out at the 130+ avenue.

Of course I'd then have to sleep with one eye open at all times because my family would murder me.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

I think dvcresalemarket.com does a good job of tracking average resale prices. Their data is only up to Feb 2019 so far: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2019/

The monthly fluctuations seem to be great enough that I don't see a strong trend one way or the other.

Maybe its still the effects of the rising maintenance costs

 

[DisneyOutsider]

In normal market conditions, you would expect the price to decrease year over year, because each passing year is one less year on the contract.

I know this hasn't always been the case, but with the recent resale restrictions, we shouldn't be surprised to see the price per point dropping each year on the resale market.

 

[ryguy]

I would argue that DVC is more successful than other timeshares because of the resale market. Disney is definitely testing limits with high direct price points and restrictions on resale contracts. Many resale buyers spend a good chunk of change on their contracts. Spending $20,000 on a product and you are made to feel like a second class member, doesn't leave a good taste in one's mouth. Curious to see how DVC shakes out over the next 10 years. I think the next few years are critical for the program.

 

[aliceismad]

Is Star Wars Land predicted to boost resale prices? I would think so, particularly at Epcot resorts.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

I would argue that DVC is more successful than other timeshares because of the resale market. Disney is definitely testing limits with high direct price points and restrictions on resale contracts. Many resale buyers spend a good chunk of change on their contracts. Spending $20,000 on a product and you are made to feel like a second class member, doesn't leave a good taste in one's mouth. Curious to see how DVC shakes out over the next 10 years. I think the next few years are critical for the program.

I agree. One of the reasons some people buy DVC, weather resale oe direct is because it is nothing like other timeshare programs, which I would never give the time of day to. The Rivera is going to be a real test.
A thought, and this is a crazy one. If they really wanted to appeal to people they would make it exclusive. Like one giant TOW, memebers only. It would not appeal to me but some people just love to feel they are VIP.

 

[slappy magoo]

Just doing a little perusing, but not actually looking to buy, I noticed that resale prices for AKL are a bit lower than when I was looking last summer. Maybe there is more inventory this time of year but prices that were being listed at 110 to 115 and over are now down to 107.

Did you happen to notice the size of the contracts? I'm sure you know contracts with fewer points tend to fetch a higher price from people looking to add on a few more to their already-existing contracts. So maybe a lot of AK contracts happen to contain more points.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Did you happen to notice the size of the contracts? I'm sure you know contracts with fewer points tend to fetch a higher price from people looking to add on a few more to their already-existing contracts. So maybe a lot of AK contracts happen to contain more points.

I actually did take a look and while some did not have points til 2020, there were a few with 2019 and they were still going at 107. And only 160 too. Now remember the buyback rate from disney has never been higher though either

 

[EOD K9]

The Rivera is going to be a real test.

I've been DVC since 2005 but really havent kept up with the Riviera. Why is it a test? Thanks in advance.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

I've been DVC since 2005 but really havent kept up with the Riviera. Why is it a test? Thanks in advance.

Its the first resort that will be so restricted on resale. A direct buyer who tries to sell it is selling just the Riviera, no access to the other DVCs.

 

[YorkshireT]

I may stay at Riviera at Xmas ( with my resale points) but no way would I buy it. I bought DVC because I researched and saw it held its value for when I want to sell. Whilst DVD will sell Riviera to uneducated impulse buyers, savvy resale buyers will be expecting big discounts to buy it when the points can only be used at that resort. The biggest issue will be at busy times, particularly if you are wanting a studio, there’s a risk if you cannot book there, you will be entirely locked out. It will be interesting to see what the points are valued at when they finally hit resale, but I would expect sub 100 at least (possibly sub 80) which isn’t good when you paid $100 more only months or a few years before. Whereas if it had been normal DVC, it would have been hitting resale at around 150+
And all because DVD want to make even more money and control resale and eventually destroy it. Makes no sense to me to damage one of the key features of your product, we will see how it works out for them.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

I may stay at Riviera at Xmas ( with my resale points) but no way would I buy it. I bought DVC because I researched and saw it held its value for when I want to sell. Whilst DVD will sell Riviera to uneducated impulse buyers, savvy resale buyers will be expecting big discounts to buy it when the points can only be used at that resort. The biggest issue will be at busy times, particularly if you are wanting a studio, there’s a risk if you cannot book there, you will be entirely locked out. It will be interesting to see what the points are valued at when they finally hit resale, but I would expect sub 100 at least (possibly sub 80) which isn’t good when you paid $100 more only months or a few years before. Whereas if it had been normal DVC, it would have been hitting resale at around 150+
And all because DVD want to make even more money and control resale and eventually destroy it. Makes no sense to me to damage one of the key features of your product, we will see how it works out for them.

A counter argument could be that original Riviera owners are less likely to sell their contact than any other owners. They bought knowing (hopefully) about these re sale restrictions and intend to use their contacts to completion, which greatly constricts the supply of Riviera on the resale market and thus keeps the value inflated.

Another scenario is that the resale value of Riviera really is tanked just like you suspect. If this is the case, I think Disney will exercise ROFR at a very high rate and just keep re-selling these points direct. I think it's pretty likely, actually.

 

[Lensman]

A counter argument could be that original Riviera owners are less likely to sell their contact than any other owners. They bought knowing (hopefully) about these re sale restrictions and intend to use their contacts to completion, which greatly constricts the supply of Riviera on the resale market and thus keeps the value inflated.

Another scenario is that the resale value of Riviera really is tanked just like you suspect. If this is the case, I think Disney will exercise ROFR at a very high rate and just keep re-selling these points direct. I think it's pretty likely, actually.

I though I'd try to research what percentage of DVC owners bought direct vs resale. It wasn't easy but I found this one thread where a posted did an estimate of the percentage of original owners based on deed transfer data: https://www.disboards.com/threads/what-is-average-lenght-of-dvc-ownership.3197790/

The bottom line was an estimate that OKW likely had 88% original owners as of 2013, SSR was at 94%, and AKV at 97%. These numbers were surprisingly high to me (and to everyone on the thread). Note that the estimate defines original as either the original owner or a gratuitous transfer (gift or inheritance) from the original owner. This makes sense because they would remain full members, right?

OKW had 12% of contracts as resale 21 years after opening
SSR had 6% of contracts as resale 9 years after opening
AKV had 3% of contracts as resale 5 years after opening

This points to a gross estimate of 0.5% of original owners selling their DVC contract each year. So I'm not sure whether there will be any impact from fewer Riviera owners buying direct and not intending to sell. I suspect that selling is much more of an unanticipated "need to sell" or "don't want to go anymore" kind of motivation.

Another way of over-analyzing the price data is to look at differences in pricing behavior between resorts. Beach Club, Grand Floridian, BLT, and CCV resale are likely not impacted by the resale policy changes. People are paying high resale prices for those resorts because they want to book at the 11-month window for those resorts. So you'd have to look at resale prices at SSR, OKW, BRV, or possibly AKV to see any price changes that might be due to people not buying resale at those resorts due to the fact that they can't book any future resort like Riviera or Reflections, and even then those changes would have to not be evident in the data for BCV, VGF, BLT, and CCV. I don't see that in the February data but I think we'll know more looking at March data.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

And all because DVD want to make even more money and control resale and eventually destroy it. Makes no sense to me to damage one of the key features of your product, we will see how it works out for them.

Actually, I've talked with management about this, and DVCs reasoning behind the resale restriction is that people are having a much harder time booking the original 14 resorts at the 7 month window. They have been receiving a lot of complaints from owners over that issue. When you add in so many more thousands of owners from Riviera and any future DVC resort, it will be even more difficult during busier times. This is their answer to the problem going forward. I completely agree with it.

Also, please remember that this shouldn't affect anyone that has already bought any points - even just 75 - direct from Disney. As long as you have those, it doesn't matter if you buy 500 resale points, you can use all them anywhere you wish. Any future Riviera resale buyer can do the same. Just buy some direct, and restrictions should go away. If that isn't true, then I agree that the resale for Riviera will pretty much tank.

I do agree that we'll have to see what the resale market for Riviera will be, but it's not a resort that we would buy into anyway. We will definitely stay there at some point, as we want to stay at every DVC resort. We only have a few left to try.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Actually, I've talked with management about this, and DVCs reasoning behind the resale restriction is that people are having a much harder time booking the original 14 resorts at the 7 month window. They have been receiving a lot of complaints from owners over that issue. When you add in so many more thousands of owners from Riviera and any future DVC resort, it will be even more difficult during busier times. This is their answer to the problem going forward. I completely agree with it.

Also, please remember that this shouldn't affect anyone that has already bought any points - even just 75 - direct from Disney. As long as you have those, it doesn't matter if you buy 500 resale points, you can use all them anywhere you wish. Any future Riviera resale buyer can do the same. Just buy some direct, and restrictions should go away. If that isn't true, then I agree that the resale for Riviera will pretty much tank.

I do agree that we'll have to see what the resale market for Riviera will be, but it's not a resort that we would buy into anyway. We will definitely stay there at some point, as we want to stay at every DVC resort. We only have a few left to try.

Maybe you can clarify this for me. If one were to buy 150 points at the Riviera on resale, then buy 75 points direct there or anywhere else, are you sure that the 150 points would be allowed to be used anywhere? I think the 75 points just gets you the membership extras(discounts, parties) but not the ability to use all your points anywhere? I mean that is how I read it, no?

 

[nickys]

Maybe you can clarify this for me. If one were to buy 150 points at the Riviera on resale, then buy 75 points direct there or anywhere else, are you sure that the 150 points would be allowed to be used anywhere? I think the 75 points just gets you the membership extras(discounts, parties) but not the ability to use all your points anywhere? I mean that is how I read it, no?

I think you’re correct. You could only use those 75 direct points to book at other resorts.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Maybe you can clarify this for me. If one were to buy 150 points at the Riviera on resale, then buy 75 points direct there or anywhere else, are you sure that the 150 points would be allowed to be used anywhere? I think the 75 points just gets you the membership extras(discounts, parties) but not the ability to use all your points anywhere? I mean that is how I read it, no?

I have a feeling that the points bought resale at Riviera, regardless of any direct bought points, will still only be available to use at Riviera.