Resale Prices Down?

[Club Cooloholic]

I have a feeling that the points bought resale at Riviera, regardless of any direct bought points, will still only be available to use at Riviera.

And that is where buying into Riviera gets a bit sticky if you ask me, but I doubt all the folks they get to walk through the tours are going to consider all this

 

[LuvtheGoof]

And that is where buying into Riviera gets a bit sticky if you ask me, but I doubt all the folks they get to walk through the tours are going to consider all this

True. It will really be up to the guides to ensure that people understand the restrictions when buying resale.

 

[correcaminos]

And that is where buying into Riviera gets a bit sticky if you ask me, but I doubt all the folks they get to walk through the tours are going to consider all this

Why would it really affect them though? I think we put too much weight on resales and their effect on direct buying.

To be honest the guides are not responsible at all for those buying resale.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Why would it really affect them though? I think we put too much weight on resales and their effect on direct buying.

Ah, the newer generation is not into ownership as much as you think. We are becoming a society that likes to "rent" things and so you should always have an eye towards where things go if you want to get rid of something. If you are asking for the same amount of points for this as you are for CCV and the CCV is transferable to be used at a dozen resorts and this one can only be transferred to be used at this one, you would be crazy not to pick CCV over Rivera. Options are a good thing in life

 

[correcaminos]

Maybe you can clarify this for me. If one were to buy 150 points at the Riviera on resale, then buy 75 points direct there or anywhere else, are you sure that the 150 points would be allowed to be used anywhere? I think the 75 points just gets you the membership extras(discounts, parties) but not the ability to use all your points anywhere? I mean that is how I read it, no?

I think you’re correct. You could only use those 75 direct points to book at other resorts.

This is correct. The 75 will get the membership perks but no use of the booking perks. Those are tied to the resorts. Your 150 points in resale are restricted to whatever the booking restrictions at the time of purchase are - resort depending. The direct points have no booking restrictions location wise.

 

[correcaminos]

Ah, the newer generation is not into ownership as much as you think. We are becoming a society that likes to "rent" things and so you should always have an eye towards where things go if you want to get rid of something. If you are asking for the same amount of points for this as you are for CCV and the CCV is transferable to be used at a dozen resorts and this one can only be transferred to be used at this one, you would be crazy not to pick CCV over Rivera. Options are a good thing in life

You assume I'm old. While my 11yo might think I am, I'm not. We are 41 and 42

My point was we all have too much weight on value of a timeshare resale. We need to stop doing it because it likely will bite you in the rear if you expect too much. I expect to unload if needed, and not for profit. If you are a renter mentality, then buying in is not wise period. So many are spoiled with current resale thinking they'll get money back. Not a smart move to do financially with a luxury item like a timeshare.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

You assume I'm old. While my 11yo might think I am, I'm not. We are 41 and 42.

My point was we all have too much weight on value of a timeshare resale. We need to stop doing it because it likely will bite you in the rear if you expect too much. I expect to unload if needed, and not for profit. If you are a renter mentality, then buying in is not wise period. So many are spoiled with current resale thinking they'll get money back. Not a smart move to do financially with a luxury item like a timeshare.

Eh, hard to say that when if you bought direct 10 years ago and sold today, you are making money.

 

[correcaminos]

Eh, hard to say that when if you bought direct 10 years ago and sold today, you are making money.

That's my point, we need to stop the expectations. One massive recession again, and you will not make your money back. My whole point is that when people buy a timeshare, they really should go in with the expectation of the value comes from the use and not any resale ability. Financially timeshares are a luxury item that do not make money, and while most have been lucky with DVC, not all happened to come out ahead. I just think we need to be realistic about it. We should not look at this as something that makes money, but something that we can enjoy. Otherwise financially it's not a wise move in my opinion. I don't expect people to agree with me, I just know that many view this as something to invest in, and working in a business full of luxury items, I can tell you that is not a smart move.

Just as a reference, we bought 15 years ago, resale too.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

That's my point, we need to stop the expectations. One massive recession again, and you will not make your money back. My whole point is that when people buy a timeshare, they really should go in with the expectation of the value comes from the use and not any resale ability. Financially timeshares are a luxury item that do not make money, and while most have been lucky with DVC, not all happened to come out ahead. I just think we need to be realistic about it. We should not look at this as something that makes money, but something that we can enjoy. Otherwise financially it's not a wise move in my opinion. I don't expect people to agree with me, I just know that many view this as something to invest in, and working in a business full of luxury items, I can tell you that is not a smart move.

Just as a reference, we bought 15 years ago, resale too.

Thats fines but you are talking about larger economic situations effecting resale when I am talking about Disney actively trying to limit and devalue it. I dont think anyone should have the expectation of making money on their buy in BUT I think its reasonable for people to expect the company to not try to devalue their purchase either.

 

[correcaminos]

Thats fines but you are talking about larger economic situations effecting resale when I am talking about Disney actively trying to limit and devalue it. I dont think anyone should have the expectation of making money on their buy in BUT I think its reasonable for people to expect the company to not try to devalue their purchase either.

I suppose I don't see Disney as intentionally trying to make resale prices go down as much as they are just trying to make direct more desirable to buyers. I think the number of people who do resale is an insignificant portion really. I think honestly the weight you're putting on what Disney is doing to resale value is more than I think. I'm not going to argue any of that though, cuz we're all speculating and we are not sure of anything. It's a true opinion on my point and I truly understand and appreciate yours.

That said none of this has to do anything with what guides are telling people which is what I was talking about to begin with. Guides are not responsible at all for anything to do with resale. Guides are there for new purchases only. They shouldn't care or have to feel like they have to share everything about the insides and outs of resale vs direct because that is seriously not their job. Just like for a resale broker, I would never expect them to talk up buying direct either. That is not their job.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

I suppose I don't see Disney as intentionally trying to make resale prices go down as much as they are just trying to make direct more desirable to buyers. I think the number of people who do resale is an insignificant portion really. I think honestly the weight you're putting on what Disney is doing to resale value is more than I think. I'm not going to argue any of that though, cuz we're all speculating and we are not sure of anything. It's a true opinion on my point and I truly understand and appreciate yours.

That said none of this has to do anything with what guides are telling people which is what I was talking about to begin with. Guides are not responsible at all for anything to do with resale. Guides are there for new purchases only. They shouldn't care or have to feel like they have to share everything about the insides and outs of resale vs direct because that is seriously not their job. Just like for a resale broker, I would never expect them to talk up buying direct either. That is not their job.

We can see things differently, you bought when you were 27? I could never have dreamed of a luxury purchase at that age, and even now I still do not like it when a company does things that lower the value of my product, weather i choose to sell it or not is my business, if you want people to buy from you direct, don't overcharge for your product.

 

[correcaminos]

We can see things differently, you bought when you were 27? I could never have dreamed of a luxery purchase at that age, and even now I still dont like it when a company does things that lower the value of my product, weather i choose to sell it or not is my business, if you want people to buy from you direct, dont overcharge for your product.

Doing the math, yes, we bought our first contract via resale when we were 26 and 27. We were the dual income/no kids, that married at 23. We had already owned our home (23/24 purchased) and major debts like car & student loans were paid off. I had saved up for it before I quit full time work (we did that to make sure we would be comfortable financially with one income for having kids - though that took longer than expected).

We can definitely disagree In my eyes I purchased my product and am getting the savings value out of it. So anything they do to resales has no bearing on me. I general they are upping the perks since I bought so I guess I'm okay with that. My end result is if I think I got value out of what I paid for my timeshare, I'm okay. So to me that's all I care about. My product is like a car, totally loses value. Though worse because it's not an item I'll be able to own as long as I would like. It ends on their terms, which is likely why I don't care about resale value. My thought is if I can unload for free even and be out of my MFs if needed, then we're okay. But I view it as a depreciating item, not appreciating.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Doing the math, yes, we bought our first contract via resale when we were 26 and 27. We were the dual income/no kids, that married at 23. We had already owned our home (23/24 purchased) and major debts like car & student loans were paid off. I had saved up for it before I quit full time work (we did that to make sure we would be comfortable financially with one income for having kids - though that took longer than expected).
We can definitely disagree In my eyes I purchased my product and am getting the savings value out of it. So anything they do to resales has no bearing on me. I general they are upping the perks since I bought so I guess I'm okay with that. My end result is if I think I got value out of what I paid for my timeshare, I'm okay. So to me that's all I care about. My product is like a car, totally loses value. Though worse because it's not an item I'll be able to own as long as I would like. It ends on their terms, which is likely why I don't care about resale value. My thought is if I can unload for free even and be out of my MFs if needed, then we're okay. But I view it as a depreciating item, not appreciating.

I regret not getting it about 6 years ago, when we could have afforded it, but we had gone enough times, I said "it's stupid to buy in now". I don't plan on selling either, we were moved to buy finally when I overheard an older gentleman in a line at Christmas 2 years ago, talking about the big trip he was doing with his kids and grand kids and he said he could never afford to treat them if he didn't have DVC.

 

[correcaminos]

I regret not getting it about 6 years ago, when we could have afforded it, but we had gone enough times, I said "it's stupid to buy in now". I don't plan on selling either, we were moved to buy finally when I overheard an older gentleman in a line at Christmas 2 years ago, talking about the big trip he was doing with his kids and grand kids and he said he could never afford to treat them if he didn't have DVC.

We were very mindful about all of our big purchases from day one. I had some help in college paying for it (maybe 1/3 of my costs covered), but at the end my husband had nothing. We both had student loans, but both of us had clear visions for our future. We both were in the technology sector which helped. So we wanted this before kids which is good because the recession hit about the time my son was 1. So we gave him things we likely could not have afforded otherwise. So I'm with that idea - without DVC no way we'd do what we do with our trips

 

[Lensman]

So we wanted this before kids which is good because the recession hit about the time my son was 1. So we gave him things we likely could not have afforded otherwise. So I'm with that idea - without DVC no way we'd do what we do with our trips

There is this weird psychological effect where you feel less bad about using your annual points for a nice DVC room. It's so true that I'd probably never shell out $3000 for a room for a week at WDW but I'd think nothing of using 230 of my points for the same room.

I'm also a person who has less trouble spending big money on "durable goods" than money on "transitory experiences". So I hate spending money on expensive sporting events but I have no trouble buying a nice TV to watch the games. I think in a similar way, DVC converted transitory "a week in a hotel room" to a lasting "30 years of rooms", so it was something I could spend a lot of money on.

BTW, I bought around when I was 30 after I got a new job that paid a lot more than my previous one.

 

[correcaminos]

There is this weird psychological effect where you feel less bad about using your annual points for a nice DVC room. It's so true that I'd probably never shell out $3000 for a room for a week at WDW but I'd think nothing of using 230 of my points for the same room.

I'm also a person who has less trouble spending big money on "durable goods" than money on "transitory experiences". So I hate spending money on expensive sporting events but I have no trouble buying a nice TV to watch the games. I think in a similar way, DVC converted transitory "a week in a hotel room" to a lasting "30 years of rooms", so it was something I could spend a lot of money on.

BTW, I bought around when I was 30 after I got a new job that paid a lot more than my previous one.

I will say if we had to shell out for the trip when he was 1, we wouldn't have gone. Air was paid for, DH was downsized but had a new lesser paying job and we were to meet a friend at Disney who had beaten cancer (she lived in CA so I didn't get to see her much). Good thing too because just about a year later the cancer came back and she died.

But at the time dues were only $4.50 ish and we had only our one OKW contract. I was also able to rent out extra points that next year too since DH had another new job but no vacation. It was to a friend who was out of points for her marathon running group. So emotionally and financially it worked.

Prior to DVC I was a very loyal Swan dweller paying $130-145 a night so even then I wasn't dropping as much cash on the rooms as some. But I saw those discounts ending and getting harder to find so it prompted me to buy OKW in resale. I saw it like you were saying. More upfront, but less in the grand scheme of it all! Really worked in our favor.

Now that we're a little older we find we like the space and truly enjoy our apartment like rooms more than standard hotels. Plus I'm a but of a snob with Disney rooms.... so is my son lol

Those of us who could buy in earlier are lucky. We get so many great years out of our purchases!

 

[nickys]

BTW, I bought around when I was 30 after I got a new job that paid a lot more than my previous one.

We actually bought when I had taken voluntary redundancy, to be able to look after my mother after she’d had a stroke.

Luckily that didn’t come back to bite us too hard!

 

[YorkshireT]

Actually, I've talked with management about this, and DVCs reasoning behind the resale restriction is that people are having a much harder time booking the original 14 resorts at the 7 month window. They have been receiving a lot of complaints from owners over that issue. When you add in so many more thousands of owners from Riviera and any future DVC resort, it will be even more difficult during busier times. This is their answer to the problem going forward. I completely agree with it.

Also, please remember that this shouldn't affect anyone that has already bought any points - even just 75 - direct from Disney. As long as you have those, it doesn't matter if you buy 500 resale points, you can use all them anywhere you wish. Any future Riviera resale buyer can do the same. Just buy some direct, and restrictions should go away. If that isn't true, then I agree that the resale for Riviera will pretty much tank.

I do agree that we'll have to see what the resale market for Riviera will be, but it's not a resort that we would buy into anyway. We will definitely stay there at some point, as we want to stay at every DVC resort. We only have a few left to try.

And if you believe that, you'll believe anything. The argument it's for the good of members makes no logical sense.

It's all about DVD wanting to take control of the resale market.

And your point re Riviera points being usable by a resale buyer anywhere if they hold some direct points isn't correct.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

And your point re Riviera points being usable by a resale buyer anywhere if they hold some direct points isn't correct.

Yes, and I admitted as such in a later post.

 

[GoofGoof]

I though I'd try to research what percentage of DVC owners bought direct vs resale. It wasn't easy but I found this one thread where a posted did an estimate of the percentage of original owners based on deed transfer data: https://www.disboards.com/threads/what-is-average-lenght-of-dvc-ownership.3197790/

The bottom line was an estimate that OKW likely had 88% original owners as of 2013, SSR was at 94%, and AKV at 97%. These numbers were surprisingly high to me (and to everyone on the thread). Note that the estimate defines original as either the original owner or a gratuitous transfer (gift or inheritance) from the original owner. This makes sense because they would remain full members, right?

OKW had 12% of contracts as resale 21 years after opening
SSR had 6% of contracts as resale 9 years after opening
AKV had 3% of contracts as resale 5 years after opening

This points to a gross estimate of 0.5% of original owners selling their DVC contract each year. So I'm not sure whether there will be any impact from fewer Riviera owners buying direct and not intending to sell. I suspect that selling is much more of an unanticipated "need to sell" or "don't want to go anymore" kind of motivation.

Another way of over-analyzing the price data is to look at differences in pricing behavior between resorts. Beach Club, Grand Floridian, BLT, and CCV resale are likely not impacted by the resale policy changes. People are paying high resale prices for those resorts because they want to book at the 11-month window for those resorts. So you'd have to look at resale prices at SSR, OKW, BRV, or possibly AKV to see any price changes that might be due to people not buying resale at those resorts due to the fact that they can't book any future resort like Riviera or Reflections, and even then those changes would have to not be evident in the data for BCV, VGF, BLT, and CCV. I don't see that in the February data but I think we'll know more looking at March data.

That’s an interesting analysis. I don’t have the time or desire to update that to today’s DVC but it probably hasn’t changed too much. 9 and 5 years is pretty early into a 50 year contract and some owners used a 10 year loan to finance so they are unlikely to sell before the loan is paid off (especially if they are underwater).

OKW doesn’t surprise me. That’s the original and has a loyal owner base that bought in cheap compared to today’s pricing. I do wonder if foreclosures would be up for the newer more expensive resorts? Even so I would not be surprised if less than 15% of points ever make it to the resale market.