Reopening Disneyland

[mharrington]

As has been explained to @TP2000 already, a lot of us get our data directly from the CDC not some news site.

As of today California has currently given at least one shot to 21.3% of those 18 and older in the state, while 9.5% of those 18 and older have been fully vaccinated.

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

covid.cdc.gov

Also, do you believe it will take at least two months to get 20,000 CMs retrained?

Also also, as I said before, unless they actually say so, I have to assume that nothing will change and the yellow tier will remain in place. I can't just rely on bits and hints.

 

[Disney Irish]

Also, do you believe it will take at least two months to get 20,000 CMs retrained?

I honestly don’t know. My personal belief is that it could take that long to get everyone fully trained if they went from fully closed to full reopened.

However as I’ve stated before my guess is they would do a phased reopening in order to have things opened while they train everyone. This is why the food events this month are good, as it already retrains some CM.

Additionally if I was Disney I would be recalling some of the attraction trainers during this time in order to start the retraining process for those CM.

 

[mharrington]

Additionally if I was Disney I would be recalling some of the attraction trainers during this time in order to start the retraining process for those CM.

Unfortunately, I don't believe Disney has done that yet and probably won't until they are allowed to reopen.

 

[flutas]

You can come to your own conclusions why LA County always gets extra credit to improve their "adjusted" scores, while Orange County always gets mystery markdowns that worsen their "adjusted" scores.

Right?

This crazy health equity metric tries to imply Orange County isn't testing as many people as other counties. How dare they close a loophole that would make it better to not get tested.

Talk about reaching to imply stuff.

The case rate is adjusted based on testing volume per 100,000 population as described below. Due to variability in data, this adjustment does not apply to small counties (defined as those with a population less than 106,000 residents).

As counties focus on increased testing in their health equity quartiles and to support school openings, they are likely to experience an increased number of cases. We want to avoid disincentivizing increased testing, provided that test positivity is low and there is sufficient capacity for contact tracing and isolation. We are therefore increasing the adjustment for higher volume testing.

• For counties with testing volume above the state median, the factor is less than 1, decreasing in a linear manner from 1.0 to 0.5 as testing volume increases from the state median to 2x the state median. The factor remains at 0.5 if the testing volume is greater than 2x the state median.
• For counties with testing volume below the state median, the factor is greater than 1, increasing in a linear manner from 1.0 to 1.4 as testing volume decreases from the state median to zero. However, this adjustment for low testing volume will not be applied to counties with a test positivity < 3.5%.

California COVID-19 Case Rate Adjustment Factor

Testing Volume	Case Rate Adjustment Factor*
0	1.4
0.25* State Median	1.3
0.50* State Median	1.2
0.75* State Median	1.1
State Median	1
1.25* State Median	0.875
1.5* State Median	0.75
1.75* State Median	0.625
2.0*State Median and above	0.5

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID19CountyMonitoringOverview.aspx

 

[TP2000]

Right?

This crazy health equity metric tries to imply Orange County isn't testing as many people as other counties. How dare they close a loophole that would make it better to not get tested.

Talk about reaching to imply stuff.



https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID19CountyMonitoringOverview.aspx

I was talking about the "adjusted" metrics, which are confined to the Case Rate metric.

The Equity Metric can't be adjusted, it simply is. Because it's a metric dreamed up in Sacramento and only vaguely based in science. But it exists on the website, and is used to determine which Tier a county is assigned to, and thus which businesses in a county may operate or must remain closed.

Orange County has consistently had a better Equity Metric than Los Angeles County. Meaning the lower-class people who live in Orange County have a better life and better health than their equivalents in Los Angeles County.

As of the new ratings released March 2nd...

Orange County Equity Metric = 5.0%
Los Angeles County Equity Metric = 5.1%

Thus, Orange County is slightly more equitable than LA County is. Shame on LA County! What are they doing to rectify that inequity? How can they be more like Orange County?

COVID-19 Resources

covid19.ca.gov

 

[flutas]

I was talking about the "adjusted" metrics, which are confined to the Case Rate metric.

The Equity Metric can't be adjusted, it simply is. Because it's a metric dreamed up in Sacramento and only vaguely based in science. But it exists on the website, and is used to determine which Tier a county is assigned to, and thus which businesses in a county may operate or must remain closed.

Orange County has consistently had a better Equity Metric than Los Angeles County. Meaning the lower-class people who live in Orange County have a better life and better health than their equivalents in Los Angeles County.

As of the new ratings released March 2nd...

Orange County Equity Metric = 5.0%
Los Angeles County Equity Metric = 5.1%

Thus, Orange County is slightly more equitable than LA County is. Shame on LA County! What are they doing to rectify that inequity? How can they be more like Orange County?

COVID-19 Resources

covid19.ca.gov

Mind reading what I posted again? I purposefully used the wrong term there to prove that you don't even read what others write.

I know you're desperately trying to pull those straws out that you're squeezing into a diamond, but it pays to read the full message before you reply.

 

[TP2000]

This crazy health equity metric tries to imply Orange County isn't testing as many people as other counties. How dare they close a loophole that would make it better to not get tested.

Mind reading what I posted again? I purposefully used the wrong term there to prove that you don't even read what others write.

I know you're desperately trying to pull those straws out that you're squeezing into a diamond, but it pays to read the full message before you reply.

Wait, so you weren't talking about the Equity Metric when you mentioned the Equity Metric?

What am I missing here?

I didn't realize this was a contest to try and trip up other posters.

I just thought this was a discussion board where we just, you know, discussed.

But the bigger question is, what is it about this solid data from Sacramento that you don't like?

Orange County Equity Metric = 5.0%
Los Angeles County Equity Metric = 5.1%

COVID-19 Resources

covid19.ca.gov

 

[flutas]

Wait, so you weren't talking about the Equity Metric when you mentioned the Equity Metric?

What am I missing here?

I didn't realize this was a contest to try and trip up other posters.

I just thought this was a discussion board where we just, you know, discussed.

My entire post is talking about the adjusted case rates, and how they are calculated. I simply changed the term to see if you would read the full message and the data it contained. Instead, you took the bait and jumped into even more bad faith arguments about one term in my entire post. Thanks for proving my point and rather quickly.

I am discussing this situation, you are ignoring entire posts to focus on one term in them, either purposefully to avoid continuing the conversation by pivoting to a new topic, or because you didn't actually read the post to try and argue in good faith.

 

[TP2000]

My entire post is talking about the adjusted case rates, and how they are calculated. I simply changed the term to see if you would read the full message and the data it contained. Instead, you took the bait and jumped into even more bad faith arguments about one term in my entire post. Thanks for proving my point and rather quickly.

I am discussing this situation, you are ignoring entire posts to focus on one term in them, either purposefully to avoid continuing the conversation by pivoting to a new topic, or because you didn't actually read the post to try and argue in good faith.

I read your post and assumed because you were talking about the Equity Metric you were actually talking about the Equity Metric.

I also clicked on your link, because I love a good link, and I got a giant government webpage of Covid paragraphs. I stopped reading that webpage after the first two sentences because, well, I'll just repost the link you posted as the crystal clear example.

If I was supposed to fall into some trap because you were talking about the Equity Metric but really meaning the Case Rates as explained in this link, then... what is the point of this game again?

Here's your Gotcha! link, for those who may have ignored it the first time...

Blueprint for a Safer Economy

www.cdph.ca.gov

That link speaks for itself.

I don't even think Gavin would read that to First Partner as love poetry on a Saturday night. It's too boring even for them.

 

[TP2000]

Okay, gang. I'm genuinely confused. And yes, I am finishing my nightcap (tonight I made a Rob Roy, which is basically a Manhattan made with Scotch instead of Bourbon), so I may not be at the tip-top of my game. But I didn't know I needed to be to converse here.

Again, what's the trick you pulled @flutas? You mentioned Equity Metric in your post but you really meant Case Rates, and then you included a link to a vague Sacramento Covid webpage. And so you were testing me on my reading comprehension to see if I could tell you meant Case Rates instead of Equity Metric?

Just cut to the chase and tell me who won the game. And do we have to play this every night?

For the record, here's the current Equity Metric for the two big SoCal counties with theme parks in them, as of March 2nd. Thus, Orange County is more equitable than LA County. Again.

Orange County Equity Metric = 5.0%
Los Angeles County Equity Metric = 5.1%

COVID-19 Resources

covid19.ca.gov

 

[ToTBellHop]

With the announcement that there will be enough vaccine for every adult by Memorial Day, Gavy-poo isn’t going to be able to sustain restrictions far beyond then.

A betting man would put money on DL opening no later than its 66th anniversary (can we just call it the 65th? What is the policy on lost years? Do I get to shave a year off my age?).

 

[el_super]

Unfortunately, I don't believe Disney has done that yet and probably won't until they are allowed to reopen.

Disney only laid off a fraction of their CMs. There are still CMs working at the park.

It will still take some time, probably a couple weeks, but it won't be some insurmountable hurdle to reopening. Since they only plan to open at 25% of capacity, they still technically have enough CMs on hand to meet that demand. Refresh training for a single shift of CMs (for a park open only 8-10 hours) will take even less time than training two full crews for double shifts.

Maintenance inside the park has started up again, and strangely work has started on a Matterhorn refurbishment. If you stand on Harbor Blvd at the right spot at the right time, you might hear the unmistakable sound of hundreds of lawnmower engines.

 

[Stevek]

Disney only laid off a fraction of their CMs. There are still CMs working at the park.

It will still take some time, probably a couple weeks, but it won't be some insurmountable hurdle to reopening. Since they only plan to open at 25% of capacity, they still technically have enough CMs on hand to meet that demand. Refresh training for a single shift of CMs (for a park open only 8-10 hours) will take even less time than training two full crews for double shifts.

Maintenance inside the park has started up again, and strangely work has started on a Matterhorn refurbishment. If you stand on Harbor Blvd at the right spot at the right time, you might hear the unmistakable sound of hundreds of lawnmower engines.

Methinks that the Disney has a pretty good idea when they will be opening again. Of course, they could also be preparing Disneyland for some type of main street opening to expand on shopping as well given the loss of BV to the new event.

 

[el_super]

Methinks that the Disney has a pretty good idea when they will be opening again. Of course, they could also be preparing Disneyland for some time of main street opening to expand on shopping as well given the loss of BV to the new event.

I still don't think they're going to do the Main Street event, but of course I've been wrong before. The way the numbers are trending, they may end up kicking themselves for putting the money in the food event, if the park reopening is a real possibility for May. Presumably the food event will have to be shut down when it comes time to start spinning up the park again for reopening.

Some things just have to be done to keep up the maintenance though. They've been running the trolleys on Main Street to keep up with training the horses, mostly because the horses need their exercise and training anyway. I would suspect that any work that's being done on the Matterhorn at the moment was the annual variety of "keep it from crumbling into dust" and was probably pre-scheduled long ago.

 

[Darkbeer1]

With the announcement that there will be enough vaccine for every adult by Memorial Day, Gavy-poo isn’t going to be able to sustain restrictions far beyond then.

A betting man would put money on DL opening no later than its 66th anniversary (can we just call it the 65th? What is the policy on lost years? Do I get to shave a year off my age?).

Both Cedar Point and Knott's are celebrating their anniversaries a year late.

Knott's turned 100 in December, and Cedar Point turned 150 last summer.

Gave my wife Lisa a 150th mask and coffee mug yesterday as part of her birthday gifts.

Heck, Disneyland's 50th celebration lasted 17 months, starting in May of 2005.

 

[mharrington]

Once again, this is for @Disney Irish...

I apologize if it seems I'm beating a dead horse, but I was informed that Orange County is still something of a hot spot, which may explain why it's still in the purple tier. Do you know how close it is to possibly switching to red?

 

[Darkbeer1]

Once again, this is for @Disney Irish...

I apologize if it seems I'm beating a dead horse, but I was informed that Orange County is still something of a hot spot, which may explain why it's still in the purple tier. Do you know how close it is to possibly switching to red?

>>Orange County barely missed the mark this week that would have started its transition to the more relaxed red tier of the state’s four-level pandemic tracking system, meaning it remains in the most-restrictive purple tier that limits a lot of indoor activities.

Two metrics, the share of COVID-19 tests coming back positive countywide and among hard-hit neighborhoods, have met red tier goals for the past two weeks.

The hang up is the rate of new COVID-19 cases in the county, which remained just above the red tier threshold of 7 per 100,000 residents, according to a state Department of Public Health update Tuesday, March 2.

The case rate has been falling steadily for weeks and reached 7.6 cases per day per 100,000 residents by Tuesday. Last week, the county’s case rate was 11.9.<<

Orange County’s coronavirus case rate misses red tier status by a fraction

All three of a county’s metrics must fall within a certain range for two consecutive weeks to advance in the four-tier system that determines when and how businesses and public places should …

www.ocregister.com

 

[flutas]

Okay, gang. I'm genuinely confused. And yes, I am finishing my nightcap (tonight I made a Rob Roy, which is basically a Manhattan made with Scotch instead of Bourbon), so I may not be at the tip-top of my game. But I didn't know I needed to be to converse here.

Again, what's the trick you pulled @flutas? You mentioned Equity Metric in your post but you really meant Case Rates, and then you included a link to a vague Sacramento Covid webpage. And so you were testing me on my reading comprehension to see if I could tell you meant Case Rates instead of Equity Metric?

Just cut to the chase and tell me who won the game. And do we have to play this every night?

For the record, here's the current Equity Metric for the two big SoCal counties with theme parks in them, as of March 2nd. Thus, Orange County is more equitable than LA County. Again.

Orange County Equity Metric = 5.0%
Los Angeles County Equity Metric = 5.1%

COVID-19 Resources

covid19.ca.gov

The whole thing was because you mentioned the adjusted case rates and how they are "mysterious" and "favor LA county over OC because politics"

When in fact none of that is true, and I laid the data out for why that's not true, which you ignored to jump on 3 words out of the entire post.

You either willingly gave up that argument because the facts were laid out and you knew you couldn't defend it.

or

You didn't actually read the entire post, and decided to try and trash the entire post based off of 3 words because you don't read the entire posts of others and only read until you see something you can twist into "unga bunga newsom bad." Literally the first 5 words that I quoted from the CA website is "The case rate is adjusted" but you couldn't even read that far into my post.

Either case shows you arguing this in bad faith.

 

[ayyylmao]

Sounds like changes are coming to the tier system

In her biweekly COVID-19 report to the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, Dr. Wilma Wooten hinted that changes are in the offing for the state’s tier system.

“There may be news with modification of this coming out later this week,” Wooten said.

San Diego still in the purple tier as seven peers go to less-restrictive red

UC San Diego to resume vaccinations at Petco, but dearth of doses may make reboot short-lived

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

 

[milordsloth]

The whole thing was because you mentioned the adjusted case rates and how they are "mysterious" and "favor LA county over OC because politics"

When in fact none of that is true, and I laid the data out for why that's not true, which you ignored to jump on 3 words out of the entire post.

You either willingly gave up that argument because the facts were laid out and you knew you couldn't defend it.

or

You didn't actually read the entire post, and decided to try and trash the entire post based off of 3 words because you don't read the entire posts of others and only read until you see something you can twist into "unga bunga newsom bad." Literally the first 5 words that I quoted from the CA website is "The case rate is adjusted" but you couldn't even read that far into my post.

Either case shows you arguing this in bad faith.

I feel like purposefully using the wrong term to set up a "gotcha" moment is an example of discussing in bad faith.