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Reopening Disneyland

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mharrington

Well-Known Member
First we don't know where we'll be with vaccinations by mid-April, so we won't know the impact it'll have on future case numbers. If current trends continue California could be well over 50% vaccinated for ages 18+ by that point on the way to herd immunity.

Second while yes its possible that case numbers may go back up that doesn't mean that it'll be worse than last year. Once again the whole point of the vaccine is to lessen the severity of the symptoms and prevent those infected from having to be hospitalized and potentially die. So if a large portion of the population is already vaccinated by mid-April than case numbers won't make a dramatic rise. And will likely be a shorter time frame before they go back down.

Third I wouldn't expect theme parks in California will open before May anyways.

To be fair, the article did mention that the impending spike won't be as severe, nor would I expect parks to reopen before May, either. On the other hand, we still don't really have an idea for when things could reopen. It's not good enough for cases to go down, they have to stay down, and regardless of how severe the spike is, that may not be the case, which could lengthen the closure yet longer.
 

BuzzedPotatoHead89

Well-Known Member
I think that can all change if the guidelines get changed before then, which I expect at this point. Having the color tier completely scrapped or having large theme parks reopen in Orange instead of Yellow can mean a May opening is possible.

I agree with this sentiment. Politicians of varying partisan stripes from across the state, including the L.A. County Board of Supervisors (on a unanimous vote) joined the Anaheim City Council in their support of the bipartisan bill speeding the reopening.

I’ve highlighted multiple times why I think Orange tier is both a realistic and attainable goal. Once the Governor gets the K-6 school issues resolved, likely by giving into their demands of prioritizing vaccinations for faculty and teachers, the broader economy (for which tourism is a major part) will come back into focus.

Particularly with every local theme park soon to be operating as a “de facto food festival by another name” public opinion and political pressure will soon mount for an expanded reopening to bring us closer to full(er) employment.
 

GimpYancIent

Well-Known Member
>>Organizers behind the effort to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office said they have nearly met their goal.

“It’s not about if it will go through, but when it will go through — and it will go through,” said Randy Economy, senior advisor behind Recall Gavin Newsom.

Proponents of the effort said they have collected 1.825 million signatures as of Thursday.

They need about 1.5 million signatures validated by the secretary of state’s office. Supporters said they’re aiming for 2 million signatures to account for a potential rejection rate of about 25%.

“The heavy lifting is continuing and we think there will be a special election later this year,” Economy said.

The update comes after the governor spent two weeks touring various vaccination sites up and down the state with other local Democratic leaders.

Newsom has said he’s not focused on the recall effort against him.<<

Gov. Gav is a walking talking disaster. Cali has deteriorated consistently since he and his cronies have been in office. Yet no actual change is occurring just more hoops to jump through. It will be interesting to see how many people will return to their former professions (i.e. Disney CM's) when this log jam breaks up and everything begins to function again.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
To be fair, the article did mention that the impending spike won't be as severe, nor would I expect parks to reopen before May, either. On the other hand, we still don't really have an idea for when things could reopen. It's not good enough for cases to go down, they have to stay down, and regardless of how severe the spike is, that may not be the case, which could lengthen the closure yet longer.
Since there is still a lot of unknowns I don't think it does yourself any good to worry about something that may or may not happen. I've said this to you before, as have others.

At this point I think its safe to say that a reopening is possible by late spring/early summer, meaning May/June.
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
I agree with this sentiment. Politicians of varying partisan stripes from across the state, including the L.A. County Board of Supervisors (on a unanimous vote) joined the Anaheim City Council in their support of the bipartisan bill speeding the reopening.

I’ve highlighted multiple times why I think Orange tier is both a realistic and attainable goal. Once the Governor gets the K-6 school issues resolved, likely by giving into their demands of prioritizing vaccinations for faculty and teachers, the broader economy (for which tourism is a major part) will come back into focus.

Particularly with every local theme park soon to be operating as a “de facto food festival by another name” public opinion and political pressure will soon mount for an expanded reopening to bring us closer to full(er) employment.
And given that 10% of vaccinations are being set aside specifically for teachers/staff was announced earlier this week, that likely already takes care of a majority of the teacher/staff issues.
 

mickEblu

Well-Known Member
As much as I’ve been dying for Disneyland to open I’m not sure I’m going to run over their as soon as they do. Wednesday at DTD was my first taste of experiencing crowds and queues in conjunction with the social distancing and mask requirements and I didn’t like it. My family and I are “happy” to comply with all the rules but we were still approached 3 or 4 times by CM’s. Once immediately upon entering the queue to get into DTD (before security). We had forgot to put my sons mask on. Ok fine. Our fault. Then another time when he was eating his lollipop as we were pushing him on his stroller because we weren’t stationary. Then another time when we were stationary at a bench but his mask was down and he was not eating anything. There was at least one other time that I can’t remember off the top of my head. Oh ya, my wife had forgot to put her mask on between sips of her coffee. Then the confusing queues. Socially distancing queues from Ralph Brennan’s Jazz Kitchen Express and Wonderground Gallery merging together. Long waits just to get into a store to buy something and donate more money. Then the crowds building up at different pinch points because they are confused at what to do/ where to queue up. This was our 5th or 6th time going to DTD since they reopened but it was much different this time. Much more crowded. A 40 minute wait to get into DTD alone. To have people reprimanding you all day long in conjunction with the masks, chaos created by social distancing, plexiglass etc just doesn’t seem like a fun day. Especially not at full price for a family of 4.

Who am I kidding? I’m probably going to go anyway. Maybe once until they offer their new membership program. I’ll say one thing for sure though. I’m ecstatic my WDW plans fell through. Its one thing to experience this somewhere you ve been a million times. It’s another to have it be on your first trip to WDW that you spent thousands of dollars on and flew across the country for.
 
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TP2000

Well-Known Member
All I want is to come down and visit Disneyland. I don’t expect the majority in Canada to start being vaccinated until July through October.

I suspect if we get vaccinated and can start to travel again... that’ll be around Christmas or early 2022.

The last of my relatives in BC died several years ago, so I am not nearly as plugged in to Canadian politics and goings-on as I used to be when I was visiting there regularly. But the situation with the vaccines up there is quite alarming.

And the fact remains that BC and Alberta used to send a heckuva lot of tourists down to SoCal, especially in the last 10 years during the Alberta oil boom. Then there's Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc. that also used to send many tourists to SoCal. I think we've all heard that Aussie and Kiwi accents in the queues, and seen the Tokyo office ladies in their 2-years-ahead fashions wandering the parks.

That the foreign countries that are the worst at getting their citizens vaccinated were all once the most important foreign countries sending big-spending tourists to Disneyland is going to hurt the Anaheim Resort District once it reopens later this year. Ouch! :oops:
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
At this point I think its safe to say that a reopening is possible by late spring/early summer, meaning May/June.

I don't know. A county has to spend 3 consecutive weeks in the lower Tier in order to advance to that lower Tier, as tracked by the data released by the state every Tuesday. So even if Orange County instantly qualified for the Red Tier next Tuesday, and then repeated that into the Orange Tier and then the Yellow Tier, that's 9 weeks away. This would be the fastest possible timetable:

Purple Tier = March 2nd thru March 22nd
Red Tier = March 23rd thru April 12th
Orange Tier = April 13th thru May 3rd
Yellow Tier = Begins May 4th in Orange County


It's going to take a few months to get all the CM's back and retrained on top of that, but if TDA were to get some sort of side agreement with Sacramento in April they could maybe start that process early.

I think a more realistic goal would be to get Disneyland reopened by July 17th, 2021.

That is, of course, unless the current Blueprint For A Safer Economy and it's accompanying Theme Park Guidance remains in place. If it's thrown out and replaced with something far less restrictive, the timetable above would be replaced with something faster.

 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I don't know. A county has to spend 3 consecutive weeks in the lower Tier in order to advance to that lower Tier, as tracked by the data released by the state every Tuesday. So even if Orange County instantly qualified for the Red Tier next Tuesday, and then repeated that into the Orange Tier and then the Yellow Tier, that's 9 weeks away. This would be the fastest possible timetable:

Purple Tier = March 2nd thru March 22nd
Red Tier = March 23rd thru April 12th
Orange Tier = April 13th thru May 3rd
Yellow Tier = Begins May 4th in Orange County


It's going to take a few months to get all the CM's back and retrained on top of that, but if TDA were to get some sort of side agreement with Sacramento in April they could maybe start that process early.

I think a more realistic goal would be to get Disneyland reopened by July 17th, 2021.

That is, of course, unless the current Blueprint For A Safer Economy and it's accompanying Theme Park Guidance remains in place. If it's thrown out and replaced with something far less restrictive, the timetable above would be replaced with something faster.


Well you're making the assumption that is if nothing changes. However I am not making that same assumption.

Also I found where its indicated this color tier system is just for the fall/winter flu seasion:
To aggressively reduce case transmission to as low a rate as possible across the state so the potential burden of flu and COVID-19 in the late fall and winter does not challenge our healthcare delivery system's ability to surge with space, supplies and staff. Also, with winter weather pushing more activities indoors, low levels of transmission in the community will make large outbreaks in these riskier settings less likely.


So that indicates that the color tier system is going to be replaced or at least changed.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
The last of my relatives in BC died several years ago, so I am not nearly as plugged in to Canadian politics and goings-on as I used to be when I was visiting there regularly. But the situation with the vaccines up there is quite alarming.

And the fact remains that BC and Alberta used to send a heckuva lot of tourists down to SoCal, especially in the last 10 years during the Alberta oil boom. Then there's Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc. that also used to send many tourists to SoCal. I think we've all heard that Aussie and Kiwi accents in the queues, and seen the Tokyo office ladies in their 2-years-ahead fashions wandering the parks.

That the foreign countries that are the worst at getting their citizens vaccinated were all once the most important foreign countries sending big-spending tourists to Disneyland is going to hurt the Anaheim Resort District once it reopens later this year. Ouch! :oops:

Yeah.

I think we will catch up soon, but Canada's message has always been vaccines for all who want them by September.

So I really suspect, if we have no more delays, majority vaccinated by fall. This leads me to think people start booking trips again (if allowed) for Christmas season and onward.
 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
Since there is still a lot of unknowns I don't think it does yourself any good to worry about something that may or may not happen. I've said this to you before, as have others.

At this point I think its safe to say that a reopening is possible by late spring/early summer, meaning May/June.

As @TP2000 pointed out, it depends on when/if Sacramento announces anything. Newsom has not given any indication as to when or if he will change his stance, and neither has Dr. Ghaly.

Also, we can't truly reopen things until/unless there are no spikes at all. Cases can't just go down, they must stay down. At the very least, cases need to be managed, if not eliminated entirely.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
As @TP2000 pointed out, it depends on when/if Sacramento announces anything. Newsom has not given any indication as to when or if he will change his stance, and neither has Dr. Ghaly.

Also, we can't truly reopen things until/unless there are no spikes at all. Cases can't just go down, they must stay down. At the very least, cases need to be managed, if not eliminated entirely.
I appreciate your opinion, however I disagree. There is every indication that the tier system will be changed or replaced in the spring. It even states right in the goals for the tier system that its to keep case rates as low as possible during the fall/winter months. So right in the goals of the tier system it indicates the the tier system will be replaced in spring.

In addition I don't know where this idea that "no spikes at all" is the metric to determine reopening at this point. We're in a different place in this pandemic than we were last year. Case rates are going to naturally decline as more of the population gets vaccinated. Spikes may happen but they'll be smaller and have less impact than the ones from last year.

So lets just wait and see what happens as we head to spring.
 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
I appreciate your opinion, however I disagree. There is every indication that the tier system will be changed or replaced in the spring. It even states right in the goals for the tier system that its to keep case rates as low as possible during the fall/winter months. So right in the goals of the tier system it indicates the the tier system will be replaced in spring.

In addition I don't know where this idea that "no spikes at all" is the metric to determine reopening at this point. We're in a different place in this pandemic than we were last year. Case rates are going to naturally decline as more of the population gets vaccinated. Spikes may happen but they'll be smaller and have less impact than the ones from last year.

True, they are declining now, but for how long? And while they will not likely be as high as before, they will still rise. Also, can you please divulge some evidence as to them altering the tier system come spring?
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
True, they are declining now, but for how long? And while they will not likely be as high as before, they will still rise. Also, can you please divulge some evidence as to them altering the tier system come spring?
Case numbers rise, that is what they do as people get infected, the point is are they rising so much to overwhelm the healthcare system. And the expectation at this point is that they won't.

As for the altering the tier system, there isn't anything explicitly stating that it will change in spring. However its been said during press conferences and its displayed right on the tier system web page that its second goal is to keep case rates as low as possible during the fall/winter season:

"2. To aggressively reduce case transmission to as low a rate as possible across the state so the potential burden of flu and COVID-19 in the late fall and winter does not challenge our healthcare delivery system's ability to surge with space, supplies and staff. Also, with winter weather pushing more activities indoors, low levels of transmission in the community will make large outbreaks in these riskier settings less likely. "

So given the fact they indicate that this is for the fall/winter season shows the tier system can and likely will be at least changed if not replaced in spring.
 

BuzzedPotatoHead89

Well-Known Member
As a follow up to my previous post from several weeks back regarding the CA Public Records Act (FOIA).

The Governor’s office is claiming process privilege in refusing to share the findings from their trip to Florida last Fall per the request below. If the litigants had standing this could presumably be challenged since the case law on this is quite murky but more recent case law has found that claiming such a broad process privilege exemption likely would not grant this level of umbrella protection from release.

Additionally names and confidential information could still be retracted as was ruled in two recent cases: Citizens for Local Government v. City of Lodi; and Caldecott v. Court of Orange County.

That said, there may also be sufficient risk that any findings in this report that would not behoove theme park operators. My advice to Newsom’s staff would be to recognize sunlight is the best disinfectant, and that it may just be easier to join the chorus calling for an opening in Orange tier. 😉

Mods - Apologies if this link can’t be shared on this forum.

 
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mharrington

Well-Known Member
Case numbers rise, that is what they do as people get infected, the point is are they rising so much to overwhelm the healthcare system. And the expectation at this point is that they won't.

As for the altering the tier system, there isn't anything explicitly stating that it will change in spring. However its been said during press conferences and its displayed right on the tier system web page that its second goal is to keep case rates as low as possible during the fall/winter season:

"2. To aggressively reduce case transmission to as low a rate as possible across the state so the potential burden of flu and COVID-19 in the late fall and winter does not challenge our healthcare delivery system's ability to surge with space, supplies and staff. Also, with winter weather pushing more activities indoors, low levels of transmission in the community will make large outbreaks in these riskier settings less likely. "

So given the fact they indicate that this is for the fall/winter season shows the tier system can and likely will be at least changed if not replaced in spring.

Why then did cases rises as high as they did in the fall/winter? I'm a little confused.
 

George Lucas on a Bench

Well-Known Member
As a follow up to my previous post from several weeks back regarding the CA Public Records Act (FOIA).

The Governor’s office is claiming process privilege in refusing to share the findings from their trip to Florida last Fall per the request below. If the litigants had standing this could presumably be challenged since the case law on this is quite murky but more recent case law has found that claiming such a broad process provledge exemption likely would not grant this level of umbrella protection from release.

Additionally names and confidential information could still be retracted as was ruled in two recent cases: Citizens for Local Government v. City of Lodi; and Caldecott v. Court of Orange County.

That said, there may also be sufficient risk that any findings in this report that would not behoove theme park operators. My advice to Newsom’s staff would be to recognize sunlight is the best disinfectant, and that it may just be easier to join the chorus calling for an opening in Orange tier. 😉

Mods - Apologies if this link can’t be shared on this forum.


It's incredibly obvious that if any such trip to WDW took place in regards to the Newsom Administration, it was clearly, clearly a leisurely French Laundry type trip and probably included Universal Orlando and a stay at the most exclusive resort with open bar.
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
And how about this.....

>>In other states, when a public official asks for a big check from an individual or business that would have good reason to be afraid to say no, it’s called extortion. In California, it’s called a “behested payment.”

A public official can ask for any amount of money. Unlike campaign contributions, there are no limits on behested payments. The money may be “behested” for a “charitable” purpose, which can include donations to non-profit organizations closely tied to the official or to a family member. Payments may also be sought for some government-related purpose, a category that has included lavish inaugural gala events and new office furniture.

It’s all legal. As long as the public official files a form to report “behested payments” of $5,000 or more within 30 days of the date they are made, activity that would flirt with a criminal investigation in other states is just one more fund-raising skill in California.

Nonetheless, it probably isn’t smart to overdo it. Asking too many companies for too much money is bound to attract attention.

That’s what has just happened to Gov. Gavin Newsom, who “behested” a mind-boggling $226,118,304 in donations in 2020.

Reason magazine reports that the haul of cash engineered by Newsom in 2020 is nearly $100 million more than all previously reported behested payments combined.

For example, the governor asked Blue Shield and Kaiser Permanente to donate a combined $45 million to support Project Homekey, Newsom’s effort to buy hotels and motels and turn them into permanent supportive housing for individuals experiencing homelessness. These state-regulated businesses may not have felt they could say no to the governor.

Then in January, Newsom selected Blue Shield for a $15 million contract to manage vaccine distribution in California, with assistance from Kaiser Permanente. CapRadio obtained a letter of intent confirming that there was no bidding process.

This is more than a problem of appearances. This is an abuse of emergency powers over an extended period of time. The governor is exercising absolute power, not only over lucrative contract awards, but over the ability of businesses to operate at all. Under these circumstances, a call from the governor asking for a payment is coercive, no matter how “voluntary” the donation may appear to be.

Behested payments can dwarf the amounts that companies donate in legally limited campaign contributions. Blue Shield gave $42,000 and $31,000 to Newsom’s campaign committee in 2018 and 2019, plus $69,000 and $200,000 to his ballot-measure committee in 2019 and 2020. These are significant donations, but they are dwarfed by the $20 million check Blue Shield wrote when the governor asked the company to support Project Homekey. That “ask” was considerably greater than the $100,000 payment Newsom “behested” from Blue Shield in 2019 for his “inaugural fund,” or the $300,000 he “behested” from the Blue Shield of California Foundation in 2020 to support the work of the “Commission on the Future of Work.”


Other companies that could potentially be hurt or helped by government actions also gave generously when the governor asked. Media companies donated millions of dollars worth of airtime and billboards. Facebook donated $25 million to pay for gift cards for the governor to give to nursing home workers.

Generosity is a wonderful thing, but coercion from a powerful public official is not. The practice of “behested payments” should be ended.<<

 
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