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Reopening Disneyland

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MansionButler84

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
Another reason to temper my excitement...

Even as California sees a decline in cases, there is fear of another problem around the corner: a nightmare scenario from a new strain, a variant of the UK strain, which is apparently more resistant to the vaccine. It will likely be dominant by May.

Again, could @Disney Irish maybe weigh in? It came from the LA Times.
Variants have been developing since a year ago. It’s what viruses do. We are just more aware of them now because we are sequencing blood samples at a higher rate. And, every time, the media says, “this might be the one that escapes our vaccines.“ And then it is studied, we perhaps learn the vaccine is marginally less efficacious, but still prevents hospitalization and death. We need to relax and just get shots into arms ASAP.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Another reason to temper my excitement...

Even as California sees a decline in cases, there is fear of another problem around the corner: a nightmare scenario from a new strain, a variant of the UK strain, which is apparently more resistant to the vaccine. It will likely be dominant by May.

Again, could @Disney Irish maybe weigh in? It came from the LA Times.
The point of the vaccine is not to completely prevent someone from getting COVID, but rather to lessen the severity of the symptoms so hospitalization and death is avoided. The vaccines provide this type of protection even from the new variants. The key is to make sure enough people get vaccinated quick enough before the newer variants take hold in the un-vaccinated population.

Also as a reminder, as I pointed out yesterday, the mRNA vaccines such as the ones from Moderna and Pfizer can be adjusted really quickly, in a matter of days, for any new variant that comes along. This technology is very powerful, and will not only provide an end to this pandemic but can help prevent future pandemics.
 

Askimosita

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Another reason to temper my excitement...

Even as California sees a decline in cases, there is fear of another problem around the corner: a nightmare scenario from a new strain, a variant of the UK strain, which is apparently more resistant to the vaccine. It will likely be dominant by May.

Again, could @Disney Irish maybe weigh in? It came from the LA Times.
I wouldn’t worry at the sensationalism too much; viruses mutate all the time to improve their chances of survival. It’s part of why we need to get a flu shot every year, to “update” our immune systems.

Regardless (and we need to study it more) but the vaccine itself is 95~% effective at preventing COVID19 infection. Those other 5% that DO get it likely have only mild symptoms. It’s just how vaccines work; sometimes you build up enough antibodies and T cells to fight it off when first exposed, and in rarer cases not, but even so you had SOME immunity to fend it off for the most part to only feel the minor infection symptoms. That’s what they see with the flu, where the vaccine is only 67% effective, BUT those that have had the vaccine still typically get more mild symptoms if they are in The 33% group of people that end up infected after vaccination. And that’s what they are seeing in the few people that have been vaccinated with both vaccines and ended up with COVID19 anyway (very small number so far, with very mild symptoms).

My point in saying all this is that the variant is still a variant and not some entirely new thing, so our body still should recognize it after vaccination with the currently available vaccines, and if it doesn’t, it should still be just mild symptoms. That’s the most predicted means at least given our history of other viruses and other vaccines. So it shouldn’t be this big deadly thing if we are immunized.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Back to the headaches and hassles of trying to Reopen Disneyland, as the thread title reminds us...

At some point this summer into the fall the tourist market is going to start weighing on the US hospitality industry. It's looking more and more as though international tourism will be severely hampered from the countries who are far behind the USA when it comes to vaccinations. And many of those countries are the main ones who send their tourists to Disneyland; France, Germany, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.

Here's todays updated stats on how those nations are performing with vaccinating their citizens.

United States = 21.0 Doses Per 100 People, 14.0% Given 1 Shot, 6.5% Fully Vaccinated
Germany = 6.7 Doses Per 100 People, 4.4% Given 1 Shot, 2.3% Fully Vaccinated
France = 6.3 Doses Per 100 People, 4.2% Given 1 Shot, 2.2% Fully Vaccinated
Canada = 4.5 Doses Per 100 People, 2.2% Given 1 Shot, 1.3% Fully Vaccinated
Australia = 0.039 Doses Per 100 People, 0.04% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
New Zealand = 0.02 Doses Per 100 People, 0.02% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
Japan = 0.017 Doses Per 100 People, 0.02% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
South Korea = Vaccinations Not Yet Begun


Those are all huge tourism countries for California and Disneyland. :(

 

SuddenStorm

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Back to the headaches and hassles of trying to Reopen Disneyland, as the thread title reminds us...

At some point this summer into the fall the tourist market is going to start weighing on the US hospitality industry. It's looking more and more as though international tourism will be severely hampered from the countries who are far behind the USA when it comes to vaccinations. And many of those countries are the main ones who send their tourists to Disneyland; France, Germany, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.

Here's todays updated stats on how those nations are performing with vaccinating their citizens.

United States = 21.0 Doses Per 100 People, 14.0% Given 1 Shot, 6.5% Fully Vaccinated
Germany = 6.7 Doses Per 100 People, 4.4% Given 1 Shot, 2.3% Fully Vaccinated
France = 6.3 Doses Per 100 People, 4.2% Given 1 Shot, 2.2% Fully Vaccinated
Canada = 4.5 Doses Per 100 People, 2.2% Given 1 Shot, 1.3% Fully Vaccinated
Australia = 0.039 Doses Per 100 People, 0.04% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
New Zealand = 0.02 Doses Per 100 People, 0.02% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
Japan = 0.017 Doses Per 100 People, 0.02% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
South Korea = Vaccinations Not Yet Begun


Those are all huge tourism countries for California and Disneyland. :(


It's also worth mentioning that tourists from out of state/country are typically the ones who book at the Disney hotels. With a significantly reduced park capacity, I imagine Disney's going to want as many of those guests as possible staying on property for the added revenue.

I'm primarily interested in Disneyland Park, however I don't envy the job of reopening the 745 rooms at the Grand Californian, the 990 Disneyland Hotel rooms, and the 481 Paradise Pier Hotel rooms.

My property (153 suites) experienced a number of issues during our low occupancy covid days, and we never closed entirely. I hope there's someone checking the lights, plumbing, and other amenities regularly- or they might have a heckuva job getting those rooms ready for guests when the time comes. Hotel rooms aren't designed to sit empty for a year.
 

TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Ah, got it. The CDC is only counting Californians over the age of 18 (which makes sense since kids really don't get sick from Covid). The media sites like Bloomberg are counting a states entire population in their info, not deleting the citizens under the age of 18.

And thank you for the CDC link!

I think it is critical for them to call out population of those 18+. I don't believe anyone under 18 has been cleared to receive it as of yet (maybe 16-17?) and they're doing studies for younger kids. You are correct that it has impacted those under 18 far less than those over that age and I truly do wonder why.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
I think it is critical for them to call out population of those 18+. I don't believe anyone under 18 has been cleared to receive it as of yet (maybe 16-17?) and they're doing studies for younger kids. You are correct that it has impacted those under 18 far less than those over that age and I truly do wonder why.

You're right. It is an important thing to call out because Covid has such a non-existent impact on those under age 18. Plus, only teenagers in late-stage cancer or other deathly situations are allowed to get the vaccine. It's just not an option for kids under 18.

But it's only the CDC that's making that distinction. The state and media tracking sites aren't taking out the under 18's from their reporting; they are simply comparing the vaccinations to the entire population regardless of age. Which caused the confusion.

I'll say it yet again; it's not going to be until late 2021 and 2022 before we see exactly what Covid was, and what it wasn't. And what worked and what didn't. Those trends are already becoming very apparent in early '21, but a year from now they'll be much more clear and far more easier to see. It's not going to be pretty for some politicians in the '22 election season, I can guarantee you that.
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Back to the headaches and hassles of trying to Reopen Disneyland, as the thread title reminds us...

At some point this summer into the fall the tourist market is going to start weighing on the US hospitality industry. It's looking more and more as though international tourism will be severely hampered from the countries who are far behind the USA when it comes to vaccinations. And many of those countries are the main ones who send their tourists to Disneyland; France, Germany, Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand.

Here's todays updated stats on how those nations are performing with vaccinating their citizens.

United States = 21.0 Doses Per 100 People, 14.0% Given 1 Shot, 6.5% Fully Vaccinated
Germany = 6.7 Doses Per 100 People, 4.4% Given 1 Shot, 2.3% Fully Vaccinated
France = 6.3 Doses Per 100 People, 4.2% Given 1 Shot, 2.2% Fully Vaccinated
Canada = 4.5 Doses Per 100 People, 2.2% Given 1 Shot, 1.3% Fully Vaccinated
Australia = 0.039 Doses Per 100 People, 0.04% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
New Zealand = 0.02 Doses Per 100 People, 0.02% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
Japan = 0.017 Doses Per 100 People, 0.02% Given 1 Shot, 0.0% Fully Vaccinated
South Korea = Vaccinations Not Yet Begun


Those are all huge tourism countries for California and Disneyland. :(


All I want is to come down and visit Disneyland. I don’t expect the majority in Canada to start being vaccinated until July through October.

I suspect if we get vaccinated and can start to travel again... that’ll be around Christmas or early 2022.
 

mickEblu

Well-Known Member
The point of the vaccine is not to completely prevent someone from getting COVID, but rather to lessen the severity of the symptoms so hospitalization and death is avoided. The vaccines provide this type of protection even from the new variants. The key is to make sure enough people get vaccinated quick enough before the newer variants take hold in the un-vaccinated population.

Also as a reminder, as I pointed out yesterday, the mRNA vaccines such as the ones from Moderna and Pfizer can be adjusted really quickly, in a matter of days, for any new variant that comes along. This technology is very powerful, and will not only provide an end to this pandemic but can help prevent future pandemics.

Wait, are you saying they can alter a vaccine that’s already been injected in our body? How? Also, that’s scary.
 

October82

Well-Known Member
Wait, are you saying they can alter a vaccine that’s already been injected in our body? How? Also, that’s scary.

No. What @Disney Irish was saying is that mRNA vaccines can be altered quickly to make booster shots that would protect against new variants. The modified boosters would encode for the changes to the spike protein seen in the variants.
 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
>>Organizers behind the effort to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom from office said they have nearly met their goal.

“It’s not about if it will go through, but when it will go through — and it will go through,” said Randy Economy, senior advisor behind Recall Gavin Newsom.

Proponents of the effort said they have collected 1.825 million signatures as of Thursday.

They need about 1.5 million signatures validated by the secretary of state’s office. Supporters said they’re aiming for 2 million signatures to account for a potential rejection rate of about 25%.

“The heavy lifting is continuing and we think there will be a special election later this year,” Economy said.

The update comes after the governor spent two weeks touring various vaccination sites up and down the state with other local Democratic leaders.

Newsom has said he’s not focused on the recall effort against him.<<

 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
>>The powerful Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors went on record Tuesday in support of Assembly Bill 420, which seeks to let theme parks reopen earlier than California Governor Gavin Newsom has allowed.

Supervisor Kathryn Barger recommended that the board back the bipartisan bill by Assembly members Sharon Quirk-Silva and Suzette Martinez Valladares. The bill would amend the state’s industry guidance to allow amusement and theme parks to open once a region is in the moderate or orange risk tier rather than the lower minimal or yellow tier.

Barger sent a letter of support to the bill’s sponsors earlier this month.

“With full outdoor operations and the ability to maintain physical distancing, theme parks across the country have proven that they can safely reopen,” Barger wrote. “Large theme parks nationwide began reopening last summer and there (have) not yet been any outbreaks or spread from these establishments.”

Barger said that densely populated counties such as Los Angeles would have a very difficult time meeting the minimal risk tier criteria of less than one daily case of COVID per 100,000 residents and a test positivity rate of less than 2%, which she said was unwarranted.

She cited a Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation report that the amusement, gambling, and recreation sector has experienced the highest percentage of job losses in the county, with more than 98% of jobs lost in the earliest months of the pandemic.

Most of those impacted are low-income workers with an average salary of $32,000 per year, according to the LAEDC study.

The board’s vote was unanimous.<<

 

Darkbeer1

Well-Known Member
>>California theme parks have shed 44,000 jobs during the pandemic and amusement park employment in the state has hit record lows as coronavirus closures of the major tourist destinations stretch toward a year, according to a new industry report.

A new report by the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions compares the vastly different approaches taken toward theme parks during the pandemic by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Theme park job losses were higher in California than the other 48 states combined excluding Florida. California lost 17,000 more theme park jobs than Florida even though the amusement park industry employs 25,000 more workers in Florida.

After theme parks on both coasts closed in March, Florida moved to reopen Disney, Universal and SeaWorld parks in the state as soon as possible while California has kept Disneyland, Universal Studios Hollywood and other theme parks closed for more than 11 months. No COVID-19 outbreaks have been traced to amusement parks around the world, according to the California Attractions and Parks Association.

IAAPA historian Jim Futrell used amusement parks and arcades employment and wage data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compile a 33-page report on the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. theme park industry.

“In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the attractions industry has faced its greatest crisis since World War II,” Futrell wrote in the report. “At one point in April, nearly every attraction in the world was closed as the pandemic spread globally.”

U.S. amusement parks saw employment drop from a record high of 275,000 jobs in July 2019 to 162,300 a year later, according to the IAAPA report. The 41% decline brought U.S. amusement park summertime employment to its lowest level since 1990 — the farthest the data goes back.

California and Florida — the two largest employers in the industry — account for roughly half of U.S. amusement park employment in the summer and even more during the off season.

Theme park employees in both California and Florida have been hit hard by the pandemic. California accounted for 39% of U.S. amusement park job losses between July 2019 and July 2020 while another 24% of industry jobs were lost in Florida, according to the IAAPA report.

Both California and Florida saw more than 80% drops in amusement park employment in May following the initial wave of coronavirus to hit the U.S. Florida quickly reopened theme parks and by July industry unemployment was down 30% compared to a year earlier. Some California parks partially reopened for special events without rides — causing industry unemployment to be down 70% by September.

California lost 44,000 theme park jobs — dropping from 57,900 in July 2019 to 13,900 in July 2020, according to the IAAPA report. Florida lost nearly 27,000 theme park jobs during the same period — declining from 83,000 to 56,200. The other 48 states saw amusement parks shed more than 42,000 jobs — dropping from 134,800 to 92,200.

Nationally, amusement park employment loss has been five times larger than the U.S. average, according to the IAAPA report. U.S. theme park wages fell $756 million — more than 50% — from 2019 to 2020.<<

 

mharrington

Well-Known Member
The point of the vaccine is not to completely prevent someone from getting COVID, but rather to lessen the severity of the symptoms so hospitalization and death is avoided. The vaccines provide this type of protection even from the new variants. The key is to make sure enough people get vaccinated quick enough before the newer variants take hold in the un-vaccinated population.

Also as a reminder, as I pointed out yesterday, the mRNA vaccines such as the ones from Moderna and Pfizer can be adjusted really quickly, in a matter of days, for any new variant that comes along. This technology is very powerful, and will not only provide an end to this pandemic but can help prevent future pandemics.

Speaking of future pandemics, I have read in an NY Times article that the coronavirus is likely planning a comeback, as it will be weeks before vaccinations will be effective. It is said that by mid-April or so, cases will stop declining and swing upward again, especially as people become confident enough to stop social distancing, mask wearing, etc. It is a matter of how high cases get next time.

That's likely going to complicate reopening things. I am also not sure if Newsom will go along with the LA County Board's decision.
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
Speaking of future pandemics, I have read in an NY Times article that the coronavirus is likely planning a comeback, as it will be weeks before vaccinations will be effective. It is said that by mid-April or so, cases will stop declining and swing upward again, especially as people become confident enough to stop social distancing, mask wearing, etc. It is a matter of how high cases get next time.

That's likely going to complicate reopening things. I am also not sure if Newsom will go along with the LA County Board's decision.
First we don't know where we'll be with vaccinations by mid-April, so we won't know the impact it'll have on future case numbers. If current trends continue California could be well over 50% vaccinated for ages 18+ by that point on the way to herd immunity.

Second while yes its possible that case numbers may go back up that doesn't mean that it'll be worse than last year. Once again the whole point of the vaccine is to lessen the severity of the symptoms and prevent those infected from having to be hospitalized and potentially die. So if a large portion of the population is already vaccinated by mid-April than case numbers won't make a dramatic rise. And will likely be a shorter time frame before they go back down.

Third I wouldn't expect theme parks in California will open before May anyways.
 

MansionButler84

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
First we don't know where we'll be with vaccinations by mid-April, so we won't know the impact it'll have on future case numbers. If current trends continue California could be well over 50% vaccinated for ages 18+ by that point on the way to herd immunity.

Second while yes its possible that case numbers may go back up that doesn't mean that it'll be worse than last year. Once again the whole point of the vaccine is to lessen the severity of the symptoms and prevent those infected from having to be hospitalized and potentially die. So if a large portion of the population is already vaccinated by mid-April than case numbers won't make a dramatic rise. And will likely be a shorter time frame before they go back down.

Third I wouldn't expect theme parks in California will open before May anyways.
Considering DLR won’t even open its tiny DVC until 5/2, it doesn’t seem they plan on opening the parks before May either.

No reasonable people expect a spike in April that in any way approaches the fall spike; a modest increase in cases and deaths leveling off for a few weeks before falling again.

I think it’s time for people to lean out of the news and social media a bit. The sensationalism is out of control.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Considering DLR won’t even open its tiny DVC until 5/2, it doesn’t seem they plan on opening the parks before May either.
I think that can all change if the guidelines get changed before then, which I expect at this point. Having the color tier completely scrapped or having large theme parks reopen in Orange instead of Yellow can mean a May opening is possible.

No reasonable people expect a spike in April that in any way approaches the fall spike; a modest increase in cases and deaths leveling off for a few weeks before falling again.
Yep, just like there was an initial small spike last spring before it went down again. I would expect the same here, but instead of a large spike in summer it just stays down.

I think it’s time for people to lean out of the news and social media a bit. The sensationalism is out of control.
The issue is the poster, and I don't believe I'm speaking out of turn here since its known publicly now, takes a majority of everything literally due to being Autistic. So a little patience is needed when dealing with this poster.
 
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