Reopening Disneyland

[fctiger]

What is up is vaccinations. Herd immunity is being predicted for sometime between June and Nov at the current rate of vaccination, and if that continues to increase, the point where we hit herd immunity will be sooner.

Magic Mountain made an announcement that they have no ability to guarantee. LA County has been diligent in keeping a higher degree of restrictions than even the state has recommended. Unless there is a dramatic change in infection rates, vaccination rates, or hospital capacity, it's pretty likely LA County (not Newsom) would keep Six Flags closed. If I recall correctly, LA County even refused to grant permissions to Universal's proposed reopening last June.

Six Flags knows' that it's dependent on the government allowing them to reopen, but they made the announcement anyway because words are cheap.

Yeah the SFMM announcement basically sounds like a cross your fingers scenario. I think all the theme parks are just hoping things turn around in the next few months with the vaccinations and less hospitalizations and both local and state will ease restrictions. Things are looking better but we are still far from out of the woods yet. So I wouldn't be buying any tickets for opening day yet or anything but we'll see.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m not sure tbh. I think it was Anaheim and some theme park union or something. Either way, Disney is aware and/ or behind it.

Sure, understand.

But I think based on some recent numbers that we could really be looking at a change, if not outright removal, to the current tier system. I mean I could see a simple mask and social distancing mandate by April with most things reopened including theme parks. We'll see what happens, but with vaccinations and minor natural immunity we should be in a good place with the pandemic by that time.

 

[mharrington]

I'm sorry but none of this makes sense.

What I'm getting at is that there is a chance that the bill to reopen parks sooner may not reach Newsom's desk. Even if it does, it will be up to him to sign it. He may very well veto it and thus not allow the parks to reopen sooner. I wouldn't put it past him not to do this.

Perhaps they voiced their support for this and members of the Newsom administration placed calls out to the parks suggesting they plan to loosen restrictions soon? This type of behavior is commonplace in politics and would help push these big companies back into a role of supporting the administration. To paraphrase James Madison, “it might be nice, it might be nice to have [Disneyland] on your side.”

While members of the Newsom administration may urge him to loosen restrictions, ultimately, it's up to him to do so, and there is no guarantee that he will. We should be ready for anything.

 

[Disney Irish]

What I'm getting at is that there is a chance that the bill to reopen parks sooner may not reach Newsom's desk. Even if it does, it will be up to him to sign it. He may very well veto it and thus not allow the parks to reopen sooner. I wouldn't put it past him not to do this.

This again is your fears talking.

At this point there is no reason to believe that he wouldn't sign the Bill if its put on his desk. However that might all be a moot point as there is reason to believe the tier system might go away completely in the spring. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

While members of the Newsom administration may urge him to loosen restrictions, ultimately, it's up to him to do so, and there is no guarantee that he will. We should be ready for anything.

Newsom has been following the advice of the Health Department lead by Dr Ghaly. All these tier requirements come out of Dr Ghaly's office. So there is no reason to believe that Newsom wouldn't follow Dr Ghaly's advice if its to loosen restrictions.

 

[mickEblu]

Yeah the SFMM announcement basically sounds like a cross your fingers scenario. I think all the theme parks are just hoping things turn around in the next few months with the vaccinations and less hospitalizations and both local and state will ease restrictions. Things are looking better but we are still far from out of the woods yet. So I wouldn't be buying any tickets for opening day yet or anything but we'll see.

That would be really dumb though right? And what’s to gain? Are people going to start booking their flights now to go to Magic Mountain in May? It’s a locals park. I would imagine after Disney put their foot in their mouth last year with the July 20 opening that any theme park would be a little more careful when making announcing opening dates.

 

[el_super]

That would be really dumb though right? And what’s to gain?

They gain the confidence of some fans and locals... Show investors that they are trying to reopen. That's all. They get some PR, stay in people's mind, maybe convince some people to check out their website. It's all just marketing.

What exactly do they have to lose? Maybe an apology when/if they cant reopen? No one will really hold them to it.

And who knows... They have until June 20th to reopen and still be "Spring" right?

 

[mickEblu]

They gain the confidence of some fans and locals... Show investors that they are trying to reopen. That's all. They get some PR, stay in people's mind, maybe convince some people to check out their website. It's all just marketing.

What exactly do they have to lose? Maybe an apology when/if they cant reopen? No one will really hold them to it.

And who knows... They have until June 20th to reopen and still be "Spring" right?

Not much to gain but Nothing really to lose I guess. With that said, you get 1 chance to make a bold statement and retract it. The second time people won’t really take you seriously. Don’t investors know they want to reopen? Every theme pro WANTS to reopen if the government will allow it. What good is the PR if nobody can go to the park or buy tickets? Like I said, no one is booking a flight or making a vacation out of Magic Mountain

 

[el_super]

Not much to gain but Nothing really to lose I guess. With that said, you get 1 chance to make a bold statement and retract it. The second time people won’t really take you seriously. Don’t investors know they want to reopen? Every theme pro WANTS to reopen if the government will allow it. What good is the PR if nobody can go to the park or buy tickets? Like I said, no one is booking a flight or making a vacation out of Magic Mountain

Lol but it's Six Flags... Does anyone really take them THAT seriously? Aren't these the same people that give away park admission for a can of coke?

I do think it's just some marketing though. Trying to get their name out there before Disney and Universal. Most of their target audience won't even remember they announced something a month from now.

 

[mickEblu]

Lol but it's Six Flags... Does anyone really take them THAT seriously? Aren't these the same people that give away park admission for a can of coke?

I do think it's just some marketing though. Trying to get their name out there before Disney and Universal. Most of their target audience won't even remember they announced something a month from now.

That’s my point. There’s nothing to really gain. Which goes back to my original point. I think they really believe they are opening in the Spring and along with Disney etc know something we don’t. I think that’s more likely then it being a pathetic PR attempt or them just hedging their bets based on what they think will happen.

 

[fctiger]

That would be really dumb though right? And what’s to gain? Are people going to start booking their flights now to go to Magic Mountain in May? It’s a locals park. I would imagine after Disney put their foot in their mouth last year with the July 20 opening that any theme park would be a little more careful when making announcing opening dates.

You have to ask them. But they already announced it right? Obviously I agree with you, after what happened last year with Disneyland (which I remember saying it was a mistake to announce ANYTHING until they got formal permission) you would think no one would be making any big plans. Not only that, it only gets the employees hopes up they are going back to work soon only to be told its not happening.

 

[mickEblu]

Not only that, it only gets the employees hopes up they are going back to work soon only to be told its not happening.

Great point. I think that their would be more to lose in this case by getting your employees hopes up than the tiny bit of PR they might get for 4 days don’t you @el_super ?

 

[mharrington]

This again is your fears talking.

At this point there is no reason to believe that he wouldn't sign the Bill if its put on his desk. However that might all be a moot point as there is reason to believe the tier system might go away completely in the spring. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Once again, we don't know if the tier system going away by spring is a sure thing, regardless of how antiquated it's becoming.

Newsom has been following the advice of the Health Department lead by Dr Ghaly. All these tier requirements come out of Dr Ghaly's office. So there is no reason to believe that Newsom wouldn't follow Dr Ghaly's advice if its to loosen restrictions.

Well, then, while everyone may be advocating for the removal of the tier system, Dr. Ghaly may want to keep it in place (which would probably make him as much a pariah as Newsom is becoming).

Even if Dr. Ghaly did allow for the loosening of restrictions, as @el_super pointed out, LA County may not go along with it, as it has been even more restrictive than the rest of the state. Granted, Orange County is a different county, but I would think that LA would have an influence on Orange, given its proximity.

 

[Disney Irish]

Once again, we don't know if the tier system going away by spring is a sure thing, regardless of how antiquated it's becoming.

Well we'll just have to wait and see what happens now won't we. My bet is on the tier system either being reworked, or more likely, replaced outright by spring.

Well, then, while everyone may be advocating for the removal of the tier system, Dr. Ghaly may want to keep it in place (which would probably make him as much a pariah as Newsom is becoming).

That is unlikely.

Even if Dr. Ghaly did allow for the loosening of restrictions, as @el_super pointed out, LA County may not go along with it, as it has been even more restrictive than the rest of the state. Granted, Orange County is a different county, but I would think that LA would have an influence on Orange, given its proximity.

OC is a different county run by a different set of politicians. Its very unlikely that OC would stick to any more restrictive model than what the state is using. Sorry, but not going to happen. And OC would seriously not follow what LA County is doing, if anything OC has shown to be less strict during the whole pandemic. Again not going to happen.

 

[el_super]

Great point. I think that their would be more to lose in this case by getting your employees hopes up than the tiny bit of PR they might get for 4 days don’t you @el_super ?

It couldn't be any worse than what Disneyland did. They've called back people to reopen twice (DL opening in July and Buena Vista St in Nov) just to send them home again.

At this point, I don't even know if Six Flags even retained their employees or let them go.

 

[SuddenStorm]

I had the chance to catch up with a friend who works in finance at Universal... while not directly related to Disneyland it is tangentially related.

Management at Universal Hollywood is fed up with the closure and recognizes how ridiculous it is to be closed with Florida and Japan open. Apparently, at least one meaningful person floated the idea of reopening in defiance of the order- but as part of such a large corporate that idea got shut down real quick internally.

The announcement of Disneyland cancelling their AP program caused them to consider the same as well, and they did thorough cost analysis. Whether it be due to pricing or attendance demographics, cancelling their AP program doesn't make sense like it does at Disneyland.

 

[TP2000]

Especially after a year of being closed.

That still blows my mind.

It will be more than a year. Perhaps many months more.

And yours isn't the only mind that is blown over that.

That some folks here, and in Sacramento, think that's perfectly fine blows even more minds.

 

[TP2000]

What does Magic Mountain know that we don’t? Is a Disneyland opening in the Spring announcement coming soon? All seems to line up with rumors that they are shooting for a Memorial Day reopening.

At best, it's a tacit acknowledgement that Six Flags assumes the political winds are blowing strong enough now for Gavin Newsom to reverse his position from October, 2020 and allow SoCal theme parks to reopen this spring regardless of Science & Data.

At worst, it's an intern in Communications that cut and pasted the Midwest Tweet onto the California Tweet by accident.

 

[TP2000]

I actually think he will allow CA to reopen theme parks by summer. There will be little public support for this once staunchly-conservative states like New York have allowed theirs to reopen. There is a shift happening out in public. And honestly, it’s a pretty modest, but impactful, olive branch to extend. It’s not like reopening all the clubs.

Too late. All the nightclubs in Orange County, from the clothing mandatory discos to the topless go-go girl places, have all been open for weeks now. In total defiance of Sacramento. Because they have no corporate lawyers to worry about, and the Orange County Sherriff has publicly said his deputies will not be enforcing any Covid regulations coming out of Sacramento.

The "clubs" in OC have already been reopened since Christmas.

And I had brunch and a fabulous Salmon Eggs Benedict earlier today in an indoor dining room in OC. In total defiance of Gavin.

It's just the big corporate chains and Disneyland that are still closed here. Sacramento lost all control and all moral authority months ago.

 

[TP2000]

What is up is vaccinations.

Not really. What is up is the wind advisory on political winds blowing in Sacramento.

The Anaheim Supersite has been closed since last Thursday, and won't reopen until Tuesday. I took this photo early today, thanks to the horribly cold winter the rest of North America is having...

As for the broader California vaccinations, here's how we fare as of February 21st compared to that other state that has allowed that other Disneyland to operate daily for the last seven months...

California = 18.86 Doses Per 100 Californians, 13.7% Population Given 1 Shot, 5.0% Population Given 2 Shots
Florida = 20.43 Doses Per 100 Floridians, 13.4% Population Given 1 Shot, 6.9% Population Given 2 Shots

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[ToTBellHop]

OC is a different county run by a different set of politicians. Its very unlikely that OC would stick to any more restrictive model than what the state is using. Sorry, but not going to happen. And OC would seriously not follow what LA County is doing, if anything OC has shown to be less strict during the whole pandemic. Again not going to happen.

I agree here. Disneyland picked a better county to be in than poor USH...