News Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)

[Josh Hendy]

Any rumblings.of this project being put on extended hiatus due to Covid? Finish what has gone vertical the idle the project like POP/AoA.

On the one hand travel and park attendance are likely to go down ... on the other hand the official "fix" for the economic woes is going to be, print more money and blow up the worldwide debt bubble to even more epic proportions. This is a DVC project right? The debt bubble being what it is, Disney will have practically no choice except to borrow more (at super cheap rates), build more condos, and lend the money out to customers to buy timeshares.

In the long term the debt bubble is a financial suicide pact. In the short term shareholders would quickly toss out any corporate execs who don't borrow and lend money "to da max".

 

[toolsnspools]

On the one hand travel and park attendance are likely to go down ... on the other hand the official "fix" for the economic woes is going to be, print more money and blow up the worldwide debt bubble to even more epic proportions. This is a DVC project right? The debt bubble being what it is, Disney will have practically no choice except to borrow more (at super cheap rates), build more condos, and lend the money out to customers to buy timeshares.

In the long term the debt bubble is a financial suicide pact. In the short term shareholders would quickly toss out any corporate execs who don't borrow and lend money "to da max".

To say that they have practically no choice to borrow is wrong. I could get a new credit card tomorrow, at a very good rate, and spend the next month at Disney. That would be a very fun, but poor choice. Large corporations have the same option. Especially large corporations like Disney. Executives that use the "we have no choice" excuse to create a debt bubble, simply because the rates are low, are very bad executives. Low rates give the opportunity for reducing debt, and increasing cash flow into the business due to lowered overhead on existing debt. They don't create "need" for more debt, unless the executives don't have the character needed to run a healthy business.

 

[note2001]

Any rumblings.of this project being put on extended hiatus due to Covid? Finish what has gone vertical the idle the project like POP/AoA.

How would Covid-19 impact a development? Disney still has plans to develop and a major party coming up in 2021 that even the airport is preparing for.

Long term, this may put a halt to more developments, but I think Disney has been building too many too fast as it is. Central Florida has gone nuts with building.

 

[Bocabear]

How would Covid-19 impact a development? Disney still has plans to develop and a major party coming up in 2021 that even the airport is preparing for.

Long term, this may put a halt to more developments, but I think Disney has been building too many too fast as it is. Central Florida has gone nuts with building.

Honestly they are just playing catch up for decades of decline and stagnation... Their marketing department has outsold capacity...but this has been ongoing while they are closing and not updating attractions... They are finally building...this is all necessary...and nothing Disney does is fast...painfully slow. The entire park was built in less time than it takes them now to build one hotel...

 

[WDWtraveler]

Photo update as of Sunday, March 8, 2020. View of Disney's Lakeside Lodge under construction taken from across the lake at Bay Lake Tower. The Four Seasons resort is the large building on the left behind the crane.

 

[Wngo905]

Photo update as of Sunday, March 8, 2020. View of Disney's Lakeside Lodge under construction from across the lake at Bayside Tower. The Four Seasons resort is the large building on the left behind the crane.

View attachment 455253

I see the barn under construction but nothing verticle for the lodge. I am curious on the view, Was this taken from Contemporary or Bay Lake Tower?

 

[MattFrees71]

I wonder how this is/will be affected by COVID-19.

 

[note2001]

I wonder how this is/will be affected by COVID-19.

Depends on how well the economy snaps back and Disney feels people are ready to buy.

In my opinion, I believe there is a 70% chance Disney will put the project on hold. It seems to me that this location is always being put off. (River Country curse.)

 

[SpaceMountain77]

It is my sincere hope that Hyatt Place: The Art of Disney follows in the footsteps of Pop Century - Legendary Years. Deluxe hotels should be themed, not decorated with Disney art.

Personally, the previous concept art for this space looked more thematically appropriate.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

If nothing has gone vertical I can’t imagine they will continue with construction.

It will be very difficult to sell DVC units for a while.

 

[danlb_2000]

Bunch of permits today...


4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
648 #D, #E, #f, #G, #H, #J W Wilderness Way - Outdoor Structure

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
648 West Wilderness Way - Pool Restroom Building

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
612 West wilderness Way - Trasnsporation Dock

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
810 Timberline Dr - Security Kiosk

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
640 West Wilderness Way - Table Service Resturant

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
636 West Wilderness Way - Bus Stop and Covered Walkway

 

[nickys]

Bunch of permits today...


4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
648 #D, #E, #f, #G, #H, #J W Wilderness Way - Outdoor Structure

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
648 West Wilderness Way - Pool Restroom Building

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
612 West wilderness Way - Trasnsporation Dock

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
810 Timberline Dr - Security Kiosk

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
640 West Wilderness Way - Table Service Resturant

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
636 West Wilderness Way - Bus Stop and Covered Walkway

Could these be showing up now after sitting in an office waiting to be processed?

Otherwise maybe it shows the project isn’t being shelved, and they’re getting ready to resume as soon restrictions are lifted.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Could these be showing up now after sitting in an office waiting to be processed?

Otherwise maybe it shows the project isn’t being shelved, and they’re getting ready to resume as soon restrictions are lifted.

I assumed it was the former because permits, at least in New Jersey, are not processed quickly.

 

[Josh Hendy]

Could these be showing up now after sitting in an office waiting to be processed?

Maybe the permit for roofed enclosure of the TTC tram stop is still in the pipeline

 

[peter11435]

Could these be showing up now after sitting in an office waiting to be processed?

Otherwise maybe it shows the project isn’t being shelved, and they’re getting ready to resume as soon restrictions are lifted.

If you read the documents you’ll see that they were processed this morning but they were signed and dated by the WDI representative yesterday.

 

[nickys]

If you read the documents you’ll see that they were processed this morning but they were signed and dated by the WDI representative yesterday.

I don’t tend to read down to the bottom of them, I just read the actual description, but yes I do see that now!

So a sign that they expect to go ahead with the resort then. Or at least that it hasn’t been ruled out. No specific expiry date is given so that gives them a year (if I’m reading it correctly).

 

[Doberge]

That the project has a long timeline may work in its favor. With an opening date in 2022 it's still far off, but it still probably gets pushed back a little bit. I don't believe it's fair to expect the economy to be the same in 2023 as the next few months or longer.

It's a risk but the opportunity exists to build Reflections while economy is down (and maybe cheaper if competition for supplies and workers decreases) and have it ready for the next economic upturn to maximize time operating in that window. Disney likely also wants to spend part of the 50th showing where the resort is going and having a shiny new resort being constructed would draw a lot of excitement, especially if stuff in-park is scaled back. That said it's a gamble and I dont see Chapek choosing to gamble so early in his tenure when sitting on project is still the "safe" move.

 

[monothingie]

Bunch of permits today...


4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
648 #D, #E, #f, #G, #H, #J W Wilderness Way - Outdoor Structure

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
648 West Wilderness Way - Pool Restroom Building

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
612 West wilderness Way - Trasnsporation Dock

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
810 Timberline Dr - Security Kiosk

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
640 West Wilderness Way - Table Service Resturant

4/3/2020 - Reflections - Balfour Beatty Construction Llc
636 West Wilderness Way - Bus Stop and Covered Walkway

Could these be showing up now after sitting in an office waiting to be processed?

Otherwise maybe it shows the project isn’t being shelved, and they’re getting ready to resume as soon restrictions are lifted.

If you read the documents you’ll see that they were processed this morning but they were signed and dated by the WDI representative yesterday.

Permits have a lifespan if work is not initiated on them. Typically it is anywhere from 3-12 months. They can be extended but it would require complete resubmitals and possible reengineering. The reason for this is because building codes are updated frequently. Typically a building falls under the codes in effect at time of submittal, if permits had no expiration a project expected to start in 2022 could subject to building codes from 2020.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Permits have a lifespan if work is not initiated on them. Typically it is anywhere from 3-12 months. They can be extended but it would require complete resubmitals and possible reengineering. The reason for this is because building codes are updated frequently. Typically a building falls under the codes in effect at time of submittal, if permits had no expiration a project expected to start in 2022 could subject to building codes from 2020.

Every three years is not exactly frequent. Projects delayed now will only have potential issues because Florida is nearing the end of its cycle with the 2020 Florida Building Code and Florida Fire Prevention Code taking effect on December 31, 2020. This is two years behind the model codes so designers should be aware of any major changes that are upcoming. The EPCOT Building Code is also on a three year cycle, with the 2018 EPCOT Building Code only just taking effect on October 1, 2019.

 

[danlb_2000]

Permits have a lifespan if work is not initiated on them. Typically it is anywhere from 3-12 months. They can be extended but it would require complete resubmitals and possible reengineering. The reason for this is because building codes are updated frequently. Typically a building falls under the codes in effect at time of submittal, if permits had no expiration a project expected to start in 2022 could subject to building codes from 2020.

These do not have an explicit expiration date, so they are good for one year, although it's not unusual to see extensions filed for Notices of Commencement.