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News Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)
- Thread starter danlb_2000
- Start date
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
It looks like the longest they've ever gone is 4 years, even with 3 resorts opening during the Recession.
The metric though comes to how quickly they think they'll now sell through Riviera. It was certainly on track to meet their 2022 timeline to be towards the end of its sales cycle.
I assume they'll start with a delay (maybe even a year) and if things are a total mess then re-evaluate the cancellation. But if they project they need something for 2023 (instead of 2022) it really doesn't make sense for them to start from scratch. DVC is easy money for them.
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
If they work off of commission (do they?) I wouldn’t want to be a DVC salesman for a while... gonna be a hard sell.
Jayhawker
Member
I believe they do work off of commission. Regardless, I would never want to be a DVC salesman. I would be terrible at this job in a roaring economy let alone a Coronavirus Recession.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
For all intents and purposes, you can extend out work permits indefinitely. And this talk of “you have to because of code updates” is not accurate either. Codes change very little.
It’s also Florida - which is like “the Wild Wild south” of regulation: if they didn’t have hurricanes you’d just have to slip the code guy $100.
Permits aren’t a problem...really they’re not.
3??
Contemporary (concrete nightmare) and Kidani we’re well under construction during the house crash. What was the other? Treehouse at Crapatoga?
The river dvc is dead in the water...just my take. Have they done demo af the sight? It’s early enough go shelve it indefinitely.
It’s also “mixed use” and there will be no reason to build more rack rooms now. None.
Jayhawker
Member
Also, I am sure they will complete this project. Like others have said, DVC makes too much $$$ to pass up. Of course, the project will surely be delayed by a bit now. People will still be buying DVC just like people will still be going to WDW in record #'s. This is just a relatively short term decrease in demand brought along by an unusual event.
I predict that 6 months from now DVC sales of Riviera and the overall DVC market (including resale) will be back to decent levels. We may not be quite back to the sales revenue experienced over the last decade, but the trend will be up in my opinion. The economy was in the later stages of record bull market, and we all knew it had to stop at some point. I never would have believed that a worldwide Coronavirus pandemic would be what would end the the expansion and begin a recession though.
I predict that 6 months from now DVC sales of Riviera and the overall DVC market (including resale) will be back to decent levels. We may not be quite back to the sales revenue experienced over the last decade, but the trend will be up in my opinion. The economy was in the later stages of record bull market, and we all knew it had to stop at some point. I never would have believed that a worldwide Coronavirus pandemic would be what would end the the expansion and begin a recession though.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I think people overestimate how much cash is made from construction. It’s made from the repeat customers over time.
And if they can’t sell it...and it looks to be heading that way...then it’s a disaster for them they don’t tolerate.
I can’t see how they trudge ahead until they have some semblance of normalcy and the recession that’s already started starts to subside. That’s a few years away now regardless.
I hope they modify their approach...maybe build something smaller and themed. Go back to what made Disney hotels popular in the first place - dump the ambiguous Marriotts
Jayhawker
Member
I sure hope you are correct in stating that the river DVC is dead. I did not like the project from the start.
I also wonder what work has already been completed for this site. Does anyone know if work has started on ground prep, foundation, etc.? My apologies in advance if this information has already been posted earlier in the thread. I have only read through 10 or so pages...
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I like the location...I’ve always liked the campground area and wilderness lodge...
But I HATE the concept...it’s like they’re trying to build the four seasons’ little brother there...
And after seeing how the bon bini tower turned out...I’m not impressed. Lack of theming and labels placed on high rises will be the death of the demand for dvc.
carolina_yankee
Well-Known Member
Reflections is the next resort in the pipeline after Riviera. If Disney is going to keep selling DVC, they need inventory. I don't know how Riviera sales are right now (probably in the tank), but if Disney wants to continue DVC, Reflections is going to have to be built. They can slow it down based on how Riviera sales are going, but they can't shut it down completely unless they've decided "this is it."
I wonder if COVID-19 has actually encouraged Disney to double down on DVC - it's a great way to insure income and open resorts, which means people, which means parks and dining. From what I see on DVC boards, as soon as Disney is open, people are going. They've got their vacations booked (11 months out in some cases) or they are desperate to use their points from the shutdown before they expire.
Also something I've seen on DVC boards - the economic shut down isn't hitting DVC owners as bad as others. Doesn't mean it won't continue to be the case, but DVC may be where the money is for Disney for awhile. I don't mean to be elitist at all since I'm in the category of potentially having to sell as my income line is steady for now but not guaranteed if things continue like this into mid-late summer. Of course, my fellow owners may be in the same boat . . .
I wonder if COVID-19 has actually encouraged Disney to double down on DVC - it's a great way to insure income and open resorts, which means people, which means parks and dining. From what I see on DVC boards, as soon as Disney is open, people are going. They've got their vacations booked (11 months out in some cases) or they are desperate to use their points from the shutdown before they expire.
Also something I've seen on DVC boards - the economic shut down isn't hitting DVC owners as bad as others. Doesn't mean it won't continue to be the case, but DVC may be where the money is for Disney for awhile. I don't mean to be elitist at all since I'm in the category of potentially having to sell as my income line is steady for now but not guaranteed if things continue like this into mid-late summer. Of course, my fellow owners may be in the same boat . . .
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Everything you said makes a lot sense...except this: they may not be able to hold/maintain the sale prices and that will influence their decisions greatly...
DVC is not an elite country club...it’s probably in the range of 400,000 contracts that include a lot of what can be classified now as “middle class” incomes. Resell demand will plummet with price and the initial prices direct are bubble fueled insanity as is.
They will continue it...but a pause is probably warranted from their perspective.
And of course everyone moved their trips...we can’t be without or fixes!!! But that is very different than gauging new demand for contracts that start at about $25,000.
Jayhawker
Member
Yes, Sirwalterraleigh the location is great! It's the concept that I have issues with. I do believe that these new tower properties (Bay Lake tower, Coronado tower, Riviera, etc.) may have their place in the WDW lodging portfolio, but I sure hope future Disney lodging properties take a different approach. Also, I am in a younger demographic so if they are not impressing their future repeat customers who will be visiting the World for decades to come than I am not sure if this a good long-term strategy. I understand that I may not represent the majority of my age or demographic. Still, if I want to go to a sleek, modern high rise hotel, I visit the Cosmopolitan in Vegas or something like that. I go to WDW and stay at Disney resorts for the details, among other things.
I understand that DVC sales will continue, and that Disney does need new inventory to continue. My parents own Marriott time shares in Hawaii, and I have followed how Marriott developed these properties. My grandparents originally bought 2 units on Kauai in the late 1990's, then bought 2 units at Marriott Maui Ocean Club and then finally purchased 3 weeks on Oahu at Ko Olina (Disney's Aulani is located in the same development on a neighboring lagoon). Obviously, my grandparents fell for the timeshare sales pitch. They kept buying weeks at each new Marriott vacation club property. Subsequently, during the 2008 financial recession, my parents had to step in and purchase all 7 timeshare weeks from them when their financial condition worsened.
I tell this personal story to illustrate my knowledge of Disney Vacation Club and the timeshare industry, in general. Overall, timeshares are terrible investments. They have their advantages and disadvantages like anything and are great for those who want to visit the same place on a regular basis. Clearly, Disney, Marriott, and others are building DVC/timeshare units for a reason. They make a ton of money for their respective companies! So while there may be a pause or delay in DVC construction/sales. Unfortunately, sales will continue once the economy recovers.
Does anyone know the next area on property that Disney plans on developing for DVC? I know this is a few years out, but I am assuming Reflections will eventually sell its inventory and on and on we go....
I understand that DVC sales will continue, and that Disney does need new inventory to continue. My parents own Marriott time shares in Hawaii, and I have followed how Marriott developed these properties. My grandparents originally bought 2 units on Kauai in the late 1990's, then bought 2 units at Marriott Maui Ocean Club and then finally purchased 3 weeks on Oahu at Ko Olina (Disney's Aulani is located in the same development on a neighboring lagoon). Obviously, my grandparents fell for the timeshare sales pitch. They kept buying weeks at each new Marriott vacation club property. Subsequently, during the 2008 financial recession, my parents had to step in and purchase all 7 timeshare weeks from them when their financial condition worsened.
I tell this personal story to illustrate my knowledge of Disney Vacation Club and the timeshare industry, in general. Overall, timeshares are terrible investments. They have their advantages and disadvantages like anything and are great for those who want to visit the same place on a regular basis. Clearly, Disney, Marriott, and others are building DVC/timeshare units for a reason. They make a ton of money for their respective companies! So while there may be a pause or delay in DVC construction/sales. Unfortunately, sales will continue once the economy recovers.
Does anyone know the next area on property that Disney plans on developing for DVC? I know this is a few years out, but I am assuming Reflections will eventually sell its inventory and on and on we go....
MikeyK72
Well-Known Member
I have no insider information to offer on the subject but would like to say that I'm surprised Disney hasn't converted some of Coronado Springs into DVC yet (in a similar way they did for Poly). Who knows, that may be on the table at some point in the future.
Jayhawker
Member
Great point. I could see them doing that. I could see other resorts being partially converted to DVC too.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
They may...I just hate for them to continue to slide down this slippery slope of using what opened as $50-80 room hotels for DVC.
And the next two dvc add ons - logically - should be the tower at the poly where the ttc area can be rerouted (shown on some of the water management docs)...and two longhouse conversions at the grand...
If I had to guess
peter11435
Well-Known Member
Link to these water management docs?
MikeyK72
Well-Known Member
Thanks! Wasn't aware of a Poly tower possibility. I'd assume that an expansion like that would finally offer the 1-bedroom option that is currently missing.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I can’t remember where I saw them...this was like 4-5 years ago maybe?
What I recall - and this from memory so there’s margin of error- was all the work around the ttc including road and parking lot configuration jived with the potential add on. That...combined with only studios installed...makes sense. There is a void at least for 2 bedrooms that makes perfect sense.
wedenterprises
Well-Known Member
What's this?
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Sorry...river country...as in it’s being built ontop of the defunct river country water park