peter11435
Well-Known Member
I wouldn’t place much importance in anything analysts have to say at the moment. This is uncharted territory for everyone including them and they ALL have biases.
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News Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)
- Thread starter danlb_2000
- Start date
SpaceMountain77
Well-Known Member
DVC is currently selling legacy resorts for more than $200 per points. VGF, PVB, BCV, BLT, and CCV are $245, $235, $225, $225, and $220 per point, respectively. As long as buyers continue to support these prices, I do not foresee DVC going downmarket.
SpaceMountain77
Well-Known Member
Should it come to pass, there has been reasonable speculation that Tangaroa Terrace would be razed and a longhouse, comparable in length to Hawaii, built in its place. If this does happen, then I sincerely hope it is three floors, comparable to the other longhouses, rather than a towering five or six floors.
SpaceMountain77
Well-Known Member
Supposedly, Disney Meetings is working to centralize its offerings at CS and YC, moving operations out of the Magic Kingdom area resorts. Although I have not heard or seen it discussed recently, the convention centers at CR and GFRS would be razed and DVC offerings constructed.
BLT II has been speculated since the North Garden Wing was razed.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
There in lies much of the problem. Like buying a used car for 2 or 3 times the price.
DDC has decided not to go through the construction process of the south garden wing at contemporary for at least a long time. I work with a construction company who either has or will start to do a full gut of south garden to do a refit...but not dvc. They did the Fulton’s work and “copper creek” in similar fashion recently.
As far as the convention center stuff you said...it ALL makes sense. I hadn’t connected the Dots on the expansion of yacht club convention center till now. Great stuff.
Even the walking bridge to magic kingdom makes more sense. I doubted it was for me to run
Josh Hendy
Well-Known Member
Plus condo fees, minus daily housekeeping ... ?
(stirring the pot, can't help it I'm bored)
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
That feels like quite the turn around from reading here 3-4 years ago that the Contemporary wouldn’t get more DVC because the conventioneers don’t like the DVC clientele.There in lies much of the problem. Like buying a used car for 2 or 3 times the price.
DDC has decided not to go through the construction process of the south garden wing at contemporary for at least a long time. I work with a construction company who either has or will start to do a full gut of south garden to do a refit...but not dvc. They did the Fulton’s work and “copper creek” in similar fashion recently.
As far as the convention center stuff you said...it ALL makes sense. I hadn’t connected the Dots on the expansion of yacht club convention center till now. Great stuff.
Even the walking bridge to magic kingdom makes more sense. I doubted it was for me to run
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I think the implication here is they demolish the convention center and build dvc
One stone
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
I get that.
Not that they think long term, but there’s a lot of value in being able to walk to/see MK given the resort’s proximity. Especially for those that are far away from WDW and might be on the fence spending the money to attend a conference there.
Calmdownnow
Well-Known Member
I think that there is a good chance that the "new normality" in a mid and post COVID world will see corporations re-evaluating why they need to fork out for these mega convention gatherings. Are there other, cheaper ways of networking without being in the same space? Will their staff value a better bonus, more cash in hand, rather than a boondoggle down to the Sunshine State?
Calmdownnow
Well-Known Member
The DVC internal market becomes screwed every day that the lock down continues as the amount of points that can't be used rises day by day in an internal market where 97% of points are expected to be used in a given year. 3, 4, 5 months of points that can't be used in 2020 create problems for the market and will generate customer dissatisfaction.
On top of this, as people get hit in the economy, there will probably be increased defaults on DVC loans and the re-sale market price for contracts will drop considerably. This in turn will put pressure on the top-line DVC points costs, causing DVC to either drop the price point on it's existing resort sales, or provide major "specials". In this sort of climate it is unlikely that they will do any new builds, whether at Reflections or elsewhere on property. The cheapest route for them is to buy up any distressed points on the market (which they can do as they have Right of First Refusal) and sell them at a higher than purchase price, but lower than current direct sale prices, as and when the sales market improves. If the "vacation" market improves before the timeshare market, they can always sell these rooms as last minute, discounted bookings through Disney Travel.
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Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
I don’t think dvc has any shot of not having a major “member” issue on their hands for the next year or two.
It’s a mathematics algorithm at its core. You cannot have 2-3 or months of closure without it collapsing upon reopening.
A large percentage of members will want to go back ASAP. The math won’t work.
Calmdownnow
Well-Known Member
It becomes potentially even more difficult if the large majority of members decide to bank 2020, and even 2021 points.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Excellent point
nickys
Premium Member
DVC rules do allow them to suspend banking and borrowing if necessary.
But that would lead to other problems, such as points being lost if members are unwilling or unable to visit & / or book during their use year.
The easiest solution and the best one DVC can use for their long term benefit is to open up all of the Riviera rooms to DVC members for use by current DVC owners and stop taking cash reservations. This would hurt in the short run but definitely help current owners and show future owners that DVC will take care of you if you buy.
nickys
Premium Member
Do you think this would help even without lifting restrictions?
The problem is that Riviera is points heavy. So a few owners might decide to book to stay there, but unless a lot of people do then it doesn’t help those with restricted points. I don’t know if they can lift the restrictions for a fixed period to ease the problem in the short term. That would definitely help more owners.
I know I want to stay there and would once or twice. I am not sure I want to buy there though because of the number of points required and it's maintenance fees.
Chupaca Bruh
Active Member
They could also lower the cost, in points, for DVC owners to book at regular Disney hotels as well.
bpiper
Well-Known Member
Even if they did that, I don't think there would be enough rooms. 28% of the inventory has been declared into the condo association leaving 72% under Disney cash night control.
Here are the room counts:
Rooms: 341 (max 489)
Tower Studio: 24
Dedicated Studio: 38
Dedicated One Bedroom: 29
Dedicated Two Bedroom: 90
Lockoff Two Bedroom: 148
(Each can be booked separately as One Bedroom + Studio) 148
Three Bedroom Grand Villa: 12
I think the only solution to avoid the negative guest satisfaction of members having to loose unusable points due to lack of available reservations is allow them to book regular deluxe rooms (non DVC) for a discount on points. Disney would be sacrificing the cash, but I think there won't be enough demand from those rooms anyway.