News Reflections – A Disney Lakeside Lodge (Project 89 - Development near Fort Wilderness)

[BrianLo]

I have no idea, but does Disney really need more room capacity DVC and or traditional?

Hotels are a different matter, but DVC constantly requires more inventory as they sell them. We’re getting reflections on this timeframe because someone has the numbers that they’ll need more inventory in a few years. They’d never put themselves in a situation where they have nothing for sale.

In a good year they can sell 2 million new points. Rivieria today has 1.7 million points available to sell or possibly even less as our data significantly lags real time.

I’m not sure what Poly has exactly, we’ll likely have better estimations very soon, but maybe 4-5 million.

It’s pretty easy to track why someone wants more inventory in 3 years this way. They start reacquiring old inventory in 2042, so new DVC inventory will continue until then. Anywhere from 2-5 more “offering” after reflections depending on size of the resorts and sales rate. If you really made me guess I’d say 4, which can include add ons to existing resorts.

 

[BrianLo]

Regarding the hotel side of the conversation. This just occurred to me, are these the first deluxe cash rooms Igers tenure has ever added to WDW? Please fact check me, I might be forgetting something.

We seem to have been only slowly reducing them for the last 20 years and shifting the guest mix towards value with art of animation juicing that pool and even some moderate reduction occurring with Riviera and the Cabins.

Maybe we don’t need them? But this begs the question, how horribly did Eisner overbuild hotels if the mix was this bad? We talk about how hotels drowned Euro Disney all the time, but did he also kind of screw the pooch at WDW? The counterpoint is Iger perhaps failed to continue to expand to fill them.

 

[MouseEarsMom33]

Regarding the hotel side of the conversation. This just occurred to me, are these the first deluxe cash rooms Igers tenure has ever added to WDW? Please fact check me, I might be forgetting something.

We seem to have been only slowly reducing them for the last 20 years and shifting the guest mix towards value with art of animation juicing that pool and even some moderate reduction occurring with Riviera and the Cabins.

Maybe we don’t need them? But this begs the question, how horribly did Eisner overbuild hotels if the mix was this bad? We talk about how hotels drowned Euro Disney all the time, but did he also kind of screw the pooch at WDW? The counterpoint is Iger perhaps failed to continue to expand to fill them.

The Starcruiser disaster was started under Iger, but that was Deluxe+++.

For how many people go to WDW in a given day, Disney would be able to easily fill all the rooms if the price points were lower and comparable to the rest of the market. I'm not sure what the margin is on hotel rooms, but I have to imagine deluxe would easily sell out if Grand Floridian started at $450 rack rate and the rest of the prices went down from there. But maybe they charge double the price and are ok if only half the rooms gets filled because it takes less effort and money to support less people?

However, I guess the deluxe prices being what they are convinced me to get DVC...

 

[freediverdude]

Reflections doesn't sound interesting to me at all, and I'm not sure what other add-ons they can build before 2042. The only deluxe without a DVC side now is Yacht Club, and that's probably because of space available and the convention center. I guess we could get the rumored replacement of the Contemporary south wing. I wonder if they have considered turning some or all of a moderate resort into DVC.

 

[UNCgolf]

Reflections doesn't sound interesting to me at all, and I'm not sure what other add-ons they can build before 2042. The only deluxe without a DVC side now is Yacht Club, and that's probably because of space available and the convention center. I guess we could get the rumored replacement of the Contemporary south wing. I wonder if they have considered turning some or all of a moderate resort into DVC.

They did. The Riviera.

 

[nickys]

Anecdotally we've heard that DVC occupancy is typically quite high at most resorts.

The aim is to run at 95%. I believe the average is very close to that.

 

[nickys]

This summer it was not. Like it was alarmingly bad at the lower demand resorts. SS, OKW, Kidani, and surprisingly BLT.

Disney own more points there, at least at OKW and SSR. So if they don’t sell rooms direct the resorts will be less full.

 

[nickys]

Regarding the hotel side of the conversation. This just occurred to me, are these the first deluxe cash rooms Igers tenure has ever added to WDW? Please fact check me, I might be forgetting something.

We seem to have been only slowly reducing them for the last 20 years and shifting the guest mix towards value with art of animation juicing that pool and even some moderate reduction occurring with Riviera and the Cabins.

Maybe we don’t need them? But this begs the question, how horribly did Eisner overbuild hotels if the mix was this bad? We talk about how hotels drowned Euro Disney all the time, but did he also kind of screw the pooch at WDW? The counterpoint is Iger perhaps failed to continue to expand to fill them.

Iger took over in 2012 I think? In which case yes you are correct.

If Reflections is actually built as a hybrid regular & DVC resort, I think it will be the first since the Boardwalk in 1996. That’s why I’m not convinced that it will be.

 

[BrianLo]

Iger took over in 2012 I think? In which case yes you are correct.

If Reflections is actually built as a hybrid regular & DVC resort, I think it will be the first since the Boardwalk in 1996. That’s why I’m not convinced that it will be.

2005! Yes, really.

The planned footprint is so large. It could not be hybrid, but the fact it is seemingly unchanged by the layout would make a really, really, really big DVC.

I also feel like they regret not having some revenue rooms in Riviera, to an extent. Still think a second phase of that occurs before 2042.

 

[nickys]

2005! Yes, really.

The planned footprint is so large. It could not be hybrid, but the fact it is seemingly unchanged by the layout would make a really, really, really big DVC.

I also feel like they regret not having some revenue rooms in Riviera, to an extent. Still think a second phase of that occurs before 2042.

Why do you say it could not be a hybrid whilst saying you think they’ll make Riviera a hybrid?

 

[BrianLo]

Why do you say it could not be a hybrid whilst saying you think they’ll make Riviera a hybrid?

Sorry, worded funny. I think it will be a hybrid.

I just was saying if you are right and it isn’t, it’s going to be an awfully big DVC. Probably too big. Hence why I think it is still hybrid.

I’d need more evidence that wings have been taken off the hotel to think they’ve walked back on their original plans.

 

[nickys]

Sorry, worded funny. I think it will be a hybrid.

I just was saying if you are right and it isn’t, it’s going to be an awfully big DVC. Probably too big. Hence why I think it is still hybrid.

I’d need more evidence that wings have been taken off the hotel to think they’ve walked back on their original plans.

I see now!

But this is what confuses me. I thought Reflections was announced as a DVC resort. Did I miss them saying it would be a hybrid resort?

 

[BrianLo]

I see now!

But this is what confuses me. I thought Reflections was announced as a DVC resort. Did I miss them saying it would be a hybrid resort?

Oh yes, it was announced as a hybrid. With 900+ rooms across both the hotel and DVC wings.

We got concept art for all the DVC unit types, including Pods (Duo Studios), Studios through Grand Villa as well as hotel rooms, 1 bedroom hotel suites and a Presidential Hotel Suite. Chapek announced separately the presence of A frame DVC units and treehouse cabins.

That’s why I’m also a bit more confident on the Lazy River follow through. Since there’s revenue rooms there too and the sheer size of the resort.

 

[nickys]

Oh yes, it was announced as a hybrid. With 900+ rooms across both the hotel and DVC wings.

We got concept art for all the DVC unit types, including Pods (Duo Studios), Studios through Grand Villa as well as hotel rooms, 1 bedroom hotel suites and a Presidential Hotel Suite. Chapek announced separately the presence of A frame DVC units and treehouse cabins.

That’s why I’m also a bit more confident on the Lazy River follow through. Since there’s revenue rooms there too and the sheer size of the resort.

Thanks, I had to go back and look. With 900 rooms It’ll be about the size as the Boardwalk or Poly (pre-tower).

Not sure I agree with you on the lazy river, though I hope you’re right. They take a lot of maintenance and staffing, and it was always said on this forum that they’d never repeat an SAB scale pool.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

They did. The Riviera

And CFW.

 

[nickys]

And CFW.

They would rather you forgot that one. Sales figures are as bad as ever. Last month they sold about 45 deeds (might be 43 or 46), < 6.5k points . Still just 1.9% sold out.

 

[MouseEarsMom33]

Reflections doesn't sound interesting to me at all, and I'm not sure what other add-ons they can build before 2042. The only deluxe without a DVC side now is Yacht Club, and that's probably because of space available and the convention center. I guess we could get the rumored replacement of the Contemporary south wing. I wonder if they have considered turning some or all of a moderate resort into DVC.

Wasn't there a rumor about 2 years back of another EPCOT resort with an entrance near or directly into the park, but not in World Showcase?

Also another hotel that would connect directly into MK near Villains expansion?

Both of those would very likely be deluxe/DVC.

 

[bmr1591]

They would rather you forgot that one. Sales figures are as bad as ever. Last month they sold about 45 deeds (might be 43 or 46), < 6.5k points . Still just 1.9% sold out.

They look awful. I'm surprised they sold any.

 

[MouseEarsMom33]

They look awful. I'm surprised they sold any.

That's why they need Reflections ASAP. There is "trust" language built into the CFW contracts. The thinking is Reflections may become part of that trust and would help bring down annual dues.

 

[nickys]

That's why they need Reflections ASAP. There is "trust" language built into the CFW contracts. The thinking is Reflections may become part of that trust and would help bring down annual dues.

I don’t see how Reflections can bring down the annual dues unless they make them the same association & resort.

In any case, the annual dues need to cover the cost of replacing the Cabins. If they want to reduce the annual dues for the cabins those for Reflections will have to be higher than normal. And they have different cabin styles too, which will also need to be replaced.