News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[MisterPenguin]

This is just the 2030 land use agreement.

The ""news"" is presenting everything in the agreement as if it's all greenlit, which is just stupid.

Their quote from a source does not in any way confirm any specific thing is being built. Just that it's great Disney will be spending money and creating jobs.

You would think that a local news station would be able to get someone from WDW on the line to confirm or deny their reporting.

 

[zulemara]

This is just the 2030 land use agreement.

The ""news"" is presenting everything in the agreement as if it's all greenlit, which is just stupid.

Their quote from a source does not in any way confirm any specific thing is being built. Just that it's great Disney will be spending money and creating jobs.

You would think that a local news station would be able to get someone from WDW on the line to confirm or deny their reporting.

Thank you! That’s what I figured. Someone I know posted about a 5th gate on Facebook and I’m like…oh lord here we go.

 

[Unbanshee]

The news is saying Disney is submitting plans for a 5th gate to the committee. I’m extremely skeptical that this is accurate. How/when will we know? @wdwmagic

Unsurprisingly, the local news appears to have next to zero comprehension of what a development agreement is and what it isn't

In this article about the development agreement, blog mickey says:
"Inevitably, someone will read this and think that a 5th gate is coming – that’s not what’s happening at all. The development agreement lists development maximums, not development outcomes. So while the development agreement allows for the densities listed above, whether or not Disney will use all of the allowed densities remains a business decision for the theme park giant."

Tourism Oversight District & Disney World Reach Agreement on Theme Park, Hotel Development for Next Decade

The Central Florida Tourism Oversight District and Walt Disney World have reached an agreement on development plans for the next decade

blogmickey.com

 

[danlb_2000]

I think they are confusing what is allowed in the agreement with what is guaranteed by the agreement. I didn't hear anything about them submitting this to the board, although they didn't make clear at the end when the quote from the CFTOD admin stopped and when their musing on a 5th gate restarted.

Yeah, I would agree, especially since they are using the "major/minor park" terminology from the agreement.

 

[DCBaker]

Here’s a link to the full BoS packet for the CFTOD meeting on Wednesday, June 5, which includes the Developer’s Agreement between Disney and the CFTOD:

https://www.oversightdistrict.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BOS-Meeting-6-5-24-Agenda-Packet-FINAL-1.pdf

 

[MisterPenguin]

Here’s a link to the full BoS packet for the CFTOD meeting on Wednesday, June 5, which includes the Developer’s Agreement between Disney and the CFTOD:

https://www.oversightdistrict.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/BOS-Meeting-6-5-24-Agenda-Packet-FINAL-1.pdf

Nice and tidy.

"We will respect each other."

$8B in 10 years.

$17B in 10 - 20 years.

 

[Tha Realest]

$8B in 10 years.

Park normies: Well its not $17 billion over the next decade but that’ll buy a lot of attractions!

Disney: Yeah that includes “investment in existing infrastructure, new construction, and technology investment.”

 

[MisterPenguin]

Park normies: Well its not $17 billion over the next decade but that’ll buy a lot of attractions!

Disney: Yeah that includes “investment in existing infrastructure, new construction, and technology investment.”

View attachment 789382

Yes, Disney made that clear in the run-up to the proxy fight at the shareholders' meeting.

 

[Advisable Joseph]

So investment is more general here than in Disneyland.

But the $8 billion is a minimum.

And using the ratio of $8 non-ship parks and experience capex to $5 parks expansion capex, the planned $17 billion for the next decade becomes $10.625 billion. It is just that some of this may be delayed, but at least $5 billion (=8*5/8) will be spent in the next decade.

If some parks and experience technology spending is not charged to a specific resort, this ratio could be even better.

Also, recall that @Henry Mystic was saying the possible fifth park that has been talked about would be after the planned $17 billion round of expansion, if I'm not mistaken -- and although it is not confirmed, there had been a lot of chatter.

There's also this recent article from the Orlando Sentinel. (Use desktop mode or a computer.) Dennis Speigel, CEO and "founder of International Theme Park Services, which provides management and development services" talks about the fifth park he has been hearing about.

 

[JoeCamel]

So investment is more general here than in Disneyland.

But the $8 billion is a minimum.

And using the ratio of $8 non-ship parks and experience capex to $5 parks expansion capex, the planned $17 billion for the next decade becomes $10.625 billion. It is just that some of this may be delayed, but at least $5 billion (=8*5/8) will be spent in the next decade.

If some parks and experience technology spending is not charged to a specific resort, this ratio could be even better.

Also, recall that @Henry Mystic was saying the possible fifth park that has been talked about would be after the planned $17 billion round of expansion, if I'm not mistaken -- and although it is not confirmed, there had been a lot of chatter.

If you think what will happen 10 years from now is what they are saying will happen today I've got some prime south Florida land you will be interested in......

 

[flyakite]

 

[John park hopper]

10 million over the next 10 yrs for affordable housing --a million a year so I ask how many house can you build for a million dollar -----I'm thinking not many

The average cost to build an apartment complex is $150 to $400 per square foot, or $75,000 to $600,000 per unit. Building a standard mid-rise apartment complex with 50 units costs $3.8 to $30 million, depending on the size of each unit, labor fees, material quality, and the building location.Nov 20, 2023

 

[wdwmagic]

10 million over the next 10 yrs for affordable housing --a million a year so I ask how many house can you build for a million dollar -----I'm thinking not many

The average cost to build an apartment complex is $150 to $400 per square foot, or $75,000 to $600,000 per unit. Building a standard mid-rise apartment complex with 50 units costs $3.8 to $30 million, depending on the size of each unit, labor fees, material quality, and the building location.Nov 20, 2023

Disney isn't building the actual housing.

 

[John park hopper]

Disney isn't building the actual housing.

That's good maybe it will get done in a timely fashion

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To my knowledge, Disney still hasn't sold off the land?

I don’t believe they have.

They should

Had the displeasure of being routed through there off boggy creek two weeks ago

That area sucks. The epitome of awful Florida sprawl

 

[monothingie]

10 million over the next 10 yrs for affordable housing --a million a year so I ask how many house can you build for a million dollar -----I'm thinking not many

The average cost to build an apartment complex is $150 to $400 per square foot, or $75,000 to $600,000 per unit. Building a standard mid-rise apartment complex with 50 units costs $3.8 to $30 million, depending on the size of each unit, labor fees, material quality, and the building location.Nov 20, 2023

Disney isn't building the actual housing.

It likely would primarily be for land acquisition or other expenses like infrastructure for the affordable housing sites.

For-Profit and Not-For-Profit companies like the Michaels Organization, which exclusively specialize on low-income housing development, are given these properties and use a combination of grants, federal funding, and tax credits to build affordable housing complexes at almost no cost to them. They then manage the properties, collect rent, and guide residents/applicants through the application and financial aid process to get them placed into the respective units.

 

[HauntedPirate]

"Disney has pledged to invest up to $17 billion over the next 10 to 20 years, with an initial $8 billion allocated for the first decade."

But... but... Bob and Josh said $17 billion over the next decade, remember?!?! 5th gates and expansions at all the parks and more more more everything!

Also note the carefully worded "up to $17 billion over the next 10 to 20 years". After that initial $8 billion (we'll run with it), they could build a single spinner in the second decade and still meet that.

 

[Dranth]

"Disney has pledged to invest up to $17 billion over the next 10 to 20 years, with an initial $8 billion allocated for the first decade."

But... but... Bob and Josh said $17 billion over the next decade, remember?!?! 5th gates and expansions at all the parks and more more more everything!

Also note the carefully worded "up to $17 billion over the next 10 to 20 years". After that initial $8 billion (we'll run with it), they could build a single spinner in the second decade and still meet that.

It says minimum of 8 billion under the economic development terms in Exhibit C:

"Disney agrees to make at least an initial capital investment of $8billion dollars within the first ten (10) years of the term of the Agreement, consisting of capital investment in existing infrastructure, new construction and technology investment."

They may well end up not doing all 17 in the first 10 but that is a pretty typical safety measure to guard against unforeseeable economic issues (think 9/11, housing crash or Covid) where you need to drastically reduce spending.

Personally I don't think they do all of it in 10 years as I expect a new CEO to come in long before many of the projects that money would go towards have started, halt everything to evaluate the potential projects, can a number of them and restart the whole design process pushing things back years.

 

[HauntedPirate]

It says minimum of 8 billion under the economic development terms in Exhibit C:

"Disney agrees to make at least an initial capital investment of $8billion dollars within the first ten (10) years of the term of the Agreement, consisting of capital investment in existing infrastructure, new construction and technology investment."

They may well end up not doing all 17 in the first 10 but that is a pretty typical safety measure to guard against unforeseeable economic issues (think 9/11, housing crash or Covid) where you need to drastically reduce spending.

Personally I don't think they do all of it in 10 years as I expect a new CEO to come in long before many of the projects that money would go towards have started, halt everything to evaluate the potential projects, can a number of them and restart the whole design process pushing things back years.

That's been the caveat that so many have missed all along - Things change.

And so many were saying, "nope, Bob said it, they filed papers with the SEC, they are LOCKED IN on that $17 billion in the next 10 years, baby, they're going to build tons of new things!!!!!!!!1!!!1!". No common sense, no peeling back a layer on the onion, just keep their pixie dust drip going strong and everything is fine.

 

[Advisable Joseph]

Yes, Disney made that clear in the run-up to the proxy fight at the shareholders' meeting.

The agreement says, abut the $8 million minimum:

capital investment in existing infrastructure, new construction and technology investment

Attractions and hotels aren't infrastructure (see the previous plans where they are differentiated), so the money from this amount going to attraction and hotels would have to be "new construction."

New Construction vs. Existing Property

When deciding what real estate property to invest in, you will likely also have to decide whether to choose new construction or an existing property.

...

While you’ll likely be able to receive higher rents from an investment in new construction, an existing property that needs renovations is usually where the money is at.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-factors-you-should-consider-when-investing-real-estate

I guess adding a new tower to a hotel or expanding a ride would be "new construction" but simple renovation or maintenance would not?