News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[Vegas Disney Fan]

What you are highlighting is 'disney nerds who want to talk about financials but are actually ignorant of the subject'. The people that actually are interested/concerned in financial health as investing do know how to interpret the key data points. It's apparently the Disney nerds drifting out of their lane... not the other way around.




Or what you are saying is 99.99% of people are willing to post about things before they get informed about it?

“Where do people keep getting the idea that Disney is short on cash?”

A very simple question, to which I gave a very simple answer… I didn’t justify it or say it was correct, just explained where I think the get the idea from.

 

[Minthorne]

Even if Disney were cash strapped, who would be positioned to buy them? I don’t think anyone expects them to go bankrupt.

 

[GoofGoof]

17 billion is status quo for a decade at current WDW, and it will probably be pretty lean as all departments tend to not do as well as the last couple decades.

Netflix ditched Marvel for a reason with multiple series and focused on a fewer in house creations that were much less budget so better ROI that covers more production when they get hits.

Disney did not listen and oversaturated three to four big budget series for Star Wars and Marvel.
It is going to take awhile and be lean before it is likely to get better for them, and the way writers are being treated are not going to get them much rusjed projects going to diversify.

They will streamline and Disney will just be the obvious hits which will create the cycle.

The hubris.

Agreed on the status quo part, but that still isn’t nothing. In the last decade at WDW we got (in no particular order)

1. Fantasyland Expansion (double dumbo, Mine Train, LM ride, etc)
2. Tron Coaster
3. Pandora (FoP, boat ride)
4. Galaxy’s Edge (RoTR, Smuggler’s run)
5. Toy Story Land (Slinky Dog, Alien Spinner, doubled TSMM)
6. Great Mickey Ride
7. Rat Ride
8. Guardians of the Universe of Energy
9. Frozen in Norway (I know…kinda lame)
10. Disney Springs expansion
11. Skyliner
12. Multiple DVC resorts and one failed Star Wars hotel

So while it wasn’t the Disney decade for sure the $15B spent over the last decade got us some interesting new stuff. This isn’t intended to be some debate about how that isn’t enough and which rides and lands were planned to be more then scaled down or replacements of existing rides. My only point is $17B will likely get us upkeep of existing stuff, for sure some DVC resorts, maybe a few more actual hotel rooms and then some “stuff” for the parks as well. That parks stuff isn’t going to be. 5th gate but isn‘t nothing either.

 

[celluloid]

Thaetrical underhwelming performances, closing a hotel, ceasing operations on operated dining options and and removing content from your streaming service does not exactly give confidence that it is rolling in.

You can have cash reserved, but you have to keep it coming back.

 

[GoofGoof]

Even if Disney were cash strapped, who would be positioned to buy them? I don’t think anyone expects them to go bankrupt.

They are still solidly in investment grade. Their debt could be downgraded another level and would still be investment grade. There’s no expectation of bankruptcy any time soon.

 

[celluloid]

Agreed on the status quo part, but that still isn’t nothing. In the last decade at WDW we got (in no particular order)

1. Fantasyland Expansion (double dumbo, Mine Train, LM ride, etc)
2. Tron Coaster
3. Pandora (FoP, boat ride)
4. Galaxy’s Edge (RoTR, Smuggler’s run)
5. Toy Story Land (Slinky Dog, Alien Spinner, doubled TSMM)
6. Great Mickey Ride
7. Rat Ride
8. Guardians of the Universe of Energy
9. Frozen in Norway (I know…kinda lame)
10. Disney Springs expansion
11. Skyliner
12. Multiple DVC resorts and one failed Star Wars hotel

So while it wasn’t the Disney decade for sure the $15B spent over the last decade got us some interesting new stuff. This isn’t intended to be some debate about how that isn’t enough and which rides and lands were planned to be more then scaled down or replacements of existing rides. My only point is $17B will likely get us upkeep of existing stuff, for sure some DVC resorts, maybe a few more actual hotel rooms and then some “stuff” for the parks as well. That parks stuff isn’t going to be. 5th gate but isn‘t nothing either.

No one said nothoing. I said status quo. I expect a theme park to get a new atraction every two years and every other to be a large scale ticketed attraction, rather than a retheme or use of one that it replaced and shares a building. The most visited theme park in the world got two ground to open built rides in the last decade. No debate about it. ha.

The point is they say investing 17 billion because it sounds like good PR, but it is status quo.

Some of your list go past a decade too. So your list is a little inflated.

For example, Tron opened this year. Little Mermaid opened in 2012.

Toy Story Mania opened in 2008. I don't think a track capacity expansion is fair to say as a list of new things in what one would think, but it is there.


Not even going into all the closures and reductions.

If you think that costs will go down and executives to front of the line and contactors will accept less pay, than yeah, we could get some neat stuff.

They just don't know how anymore.

 

[DCLcruiser]

Thaetrical underhwelming performances, closing a hotel, ceasing operations on operated dining options and and removing content from your streaming service does not exactly give confidence that it is rolling in.

You can have cash reserved, but you have to keep it coming back.

They're looking at the near future and making decisions to reduce costs. That is what all companies do.

The movie's being good or not, isn't for a lack of spending money. They are closing a super expensive land-locked cruise ship on the eve of a possible recession. I assume you mean the food trucks? Big deal. D+ is expensive to run, and they are cancelling unpopular (?) shows. The merger with Hulu will also help to reduce operating costs. None of this spells doom for DIS.

 

[flynnibus]

Even if Disney were cash strapped, who would be positioned to buy them? I don’t think anyone expects them to go bankrupt.

Bro... get with it! They're basically on life support! The stock is down and they are doing layoffs! Abandon ship!!!

/s

 

[scottieRoss]

Because we read the news, it’s no secret they went $70 billion in debt to buy Fox/Hulu a few years ago (and still owe about half that amount), it’s also no secret they took out another $10 billion in credit during Covid.

It’s also no secret that they’ve been hemorrhaging money on D+ the last couple years and that their stock has underperformed the market. Also no secret they are making cuts and laying off people left and right.

Disney may have $10 billion cash in hand but they are also about $45 billion In debt.

Are they in trouble? Nope, they can easily manage this situation with their billions in revenue, but the last half decade hasn’t been good for Disney and it’s going to take a few more years for them to get out of the hole they’ve dug.

Disney has paid down almost 9 Billion dollars of their long-term debt over the course of the last 3 years. That is an almost 20% decrease in their long-term debt. And all of that while accumulating over 10 billion in cash on hand.

 

[celluloid]

They're looking at the near future and making decisions to reduce costs. That is what all companies do.

The movie's being good or not, isn't for a lack of spending money. They are closing a super expensive land-locked cruise ship on the eve of a possible recession. I assume you mean the food trucks? Big deal. D+ is expensive to run, and they are cancelling unpopular (?) shows. The merger with Hulu will also help to reduce operating costs. None of this spells doom for DIS.

Not doom, but not exactly healthy. No one said they are not spending money on movies. What I stated is that movies they have released have had large big budget their market misses. Disney used to be the obvious animated family movie hit.

They are not just cancelling unpopular shows. They are literally taking them off to conserve server space. Not exactly the same. They are reducing the library. It is not the same as just not renewing a season.

 

[flynnibus]

They are literally taking them off to conserve server space

Highly unlikely - probably more to do with royalty arrangements, or future promotions, or similar. Storage space is basically like water to them. Expensive when viewing the whole - but basically free by the cup.

 

[DCLcruiser]

Not doom, but not exactly healthy. No one said they are not spending money on movies. What I stated is that movies they have released have had large big budget their market misses. Disney used to be the obvious animated family movie hit.

They are not just cancelling unpopular shows. They are literally taking them off to conserve server space. Not exactly the same. They are reducing the library. It is not the same as just not renewing a season.

Which recent major movies were market misses? Eternals?

John Carter lost $200mm in 2012, and it's 2023... they haven't gone under yet. (FYI, JC was a good movie, and had potential that wasn't tapped).

I haven't heard of any major shows being cancelled/deleted. Just random no-name shows. WBD deleted shows and even didn't release movies to save money. Apparently service space is expensive. I don't consider that a failing business.

 

[celluloid]

Which recent major movies were market misses? Eternals?

John Carter lost $200mm in 2012, and it's 2023... they haven't gone under yet. (FYI, JC was a good movie, and had potential that wasn't tapped).

I haven't heard of any major shows being cancelled/deleted. Just random no-name shows. WBD deleted shows and even didn't release movies to save money. Apparently service space is expensive. I don't consider that a failing business.

Strange World and Lightyear and Encanto. You can argue they never lost the company money thanks to ancillary(strange world definitely did) but they are underperformers by far of what they should have been. This is why Sing 2, PussnBoots and Mario have all. smashed them.

The Willow series, yeah I don't get why they picked that cult following either, has been on Disney Plus for less than a year and is going deleted completely.

Also, who cares about the fallacy of other businesses doing it? Disney is its own goal too. They are not healthy.

 

[celluloid]

Meanwhile Disney has the Fox IP and is planning a fifth gate. Intellectual property is waterfront property in that it is in fixed supply. The theming of Epic Universe just shows the dearth of Comcast's IP.

Maybe it is easy to think that if you think Universal is like Disney in that, the last twenty years they let things go stagnant.

IP is not in limited supply when you invest in creatives to make things in house and synergize with creatives in other departments.

I sure hope How to Train your Dragon with its popularity not in just movies but in a generation of Netflix kids the way we used to watch Saturday Morning Cartoons, the Classic Monsters that have entered a zeitgeist for over 100 years now and Mario, that is one of the biggest animated box office smashes of all time as well as a zeitgiest of its own as a character world do not struggle against Tron, Encanto, Coco and the postponed Tiana Disney Plus Series.

Universal is also getting original themed environments with the park too. Something DIsney has no desire to do anymore and corporately has chosen to paint themselves ina corner with. That is the only time it can become limited.

Not sure where you get a fifth gate for fox properties. You think that would be fitting in that 17 billion in the next decade? If they broke ground right now it would take 5 to 8 years to build. And they are not. By the time they do, Universal will have its ROI and going back into EPIC.

 

[DCLcruiser]

Strange World and Lightyear and Encanto. You can argue they never lost the company money thanks to ancillary(strange world definitely did) but they are underperformers by far of what they should have been. This is why Sing 2, PussnBoots and Mario have all. smashed them.

The Willow seires, yeah I don't get why they picked that cult following either, has been on Disney Plus for less than a year and is going deleted completey.

Also, who cares about the fallacy of other businesses doing it? Disney is its own goal too. They are not healthy.

SW and Lightyear were sabotaged by politics and fear mongering. Not because they were bad movies. Encanto, is one of the most popular current IP. It looks like it brought it more than it's budget, perhaps global?

Willow, I haven't seen. I am slightly too young for the original.

Other businesses exist in the same world, with similar problems. The economy is uncertain, streamers are struggling to overcome their budgets, etc. It is not unreasonable to view DIS vs peers in the current climate, not within a vacuum.

 

[MisterPenguin]

In the last quarter, TWDC net profited $1.2B. For the *quarter.*

At that rate, TWDC will net profit $4.8B per year.

In ten years, that's $48B.

That's enough to easily invest $17B in capex at WDW, buy out Comcast's stake in Hulu for $10B and have $21B left over. {$31B if you add in the current cash on hand.}

And that's with D+ currently throwing a deficit, which will continue to decrease until it's throwing a surplus sometime next year.

 

[celluloid]

Highly unlikely - probably more to do with royalty arrangements, or future promotions, or similar. Storage space is basically like water to them. Expensive when viewing the whole - but basically free by the cup.

You think Harmonious Live had a lot of royalties to pay?

What about Willow? A show that was just produced. Are they that fearful of the writer strike?

Pennies and drops in the bucket are how executives keep their bonuses and companies healthy.

 

[celluloid]

In the last quarter, TWDC net profited $1.2B. For the *quarter.*

At that rate, TWDC will net profit $4.8B per year.

In ten years, that's $48B.

That's enough to easily invest $17B in capex at WDW, buy out Comcast's stake in Hulu for $10B and have $21B left over. {$31B if you add in the current cash on hand.}

And that's with D+ currently throwing a deficit, which will continue to decrease until it's throwing a surplus sometime next year.

17 to WDW
10 B to Comcast

Let's give 2 billion to Disney Plus to be generous.

That would be
23 left over to DL, HK DL, Shanghai DL, DL Paris.

Not to mention investment for other ventures and divisons.

I see, so Disney is going to become one of those 501c3 deals. ;-)

 

[flynnibus]

You think Harmonious Live had a lot of royalties to pay?

What about Willow? A show that was just produced. Are they that fearful of the writer strike?

Pennies and drops in the bucket are how executives keep their bonuses and companies healthy.

I'm just responding to the idea that pulling a dozen shows is somehow going to be about saving storage costs... It's probably more about productizing and focus. Dunno.. it's highly unlikely to be technical issue and more about strategy or liabilities.

 

[celluloid]

I'm just responding to the idea that pulling a dozen shows is somehow going to be about saving storage costs... It's probably more about productizing and focus. Dunno.. it's highly unlikely to be technical issue and more about strategy or liabilities.

Why is it mutually exclusive?
It is quite expensive to host material for millions of people to be able to watch.


Whatever it is, it is not a sign of healthy business.