News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[mikejs78]

I was speculating what the future holds for him. If he isn't successful in 2024 in his bid for the WH I think he could give Senators Scott or Rubio serious competition in the GOP primaries when his 2nd term is up.

He could, but there's no Senate race he could run in until 2028 at the earliest. And then the question would be whether he runs for Senate in 2028 or takes another shot at the Presidency....

 

[LAKid53]

I was speculating what the future holds for him. If he isn't successful in 2024 in his bid for the WH I think he could give Senators Scott or Rubio serious competition in the GOP primaries when his 2nd term is up.

Scott is up for re-election in 2024.

 

[GoofGoof]

Can anybody answer this?

#1 - Was the Lake Nona campus concept designed to as a charity "gift" to Florida or a symbolic "nice gesture" to the state?

#2 - Was Lake Nona part of a REVENUE GENERATING goal or COST SAVING goal of the company? Was it part of a "real" profit/loss BUSINESS model for Disney?

If the answer is #1,...then yes, DeSantis killed it and Disney is taking their "gift" to the state away in angry protest.

If the answer is #2...then there is NO reason why they would "not" continue to build it. If the project had REAL revenue generating or cost saving VALUE, there would be NO reason to kill it because DeSants said "mean" things about Disney.

Lake Nona would have survived SOLEY on it's own profit/loss business model

It seems to me that the Lake Nona concept never had a strong business model backing it up from day one and had no true business value.

Everyone here has agreed since page 1 that Disney cannot move WDW from the state. Not possible due to the massive investment that would have to be written off. Lake Nona was a billion dollar project with 2,000+ jobs tied to it. Once Disney spent that money and relocated workers moving those jobs out of the state would have required a billion dollar write-off. It makes perfect sense for the company to pull out of that project now before it’s too expensive to do so. Why create another situation with massive investment at risk? WDW can’t move but office jobs can.

The original project was a long term cost savings for the company as well as a move to a more business friendly state. The company’s own original press releases confirm that. The primary reason it was a cost savings was the tax credits. Without them the move would not have been proposed. Disney stated yesterday that they cancelled due to a change in the business environment. As others pointed out maybe they view those tax credits as being in jeopardy now as well. What’s to stop the Governor from trying to pull them back with a crazy bill like the monorail one that creates a carve out that only impacts Disney? Difficult but not impossible to do. Even without that fear there is always a risk premium associated with political risk anywhere. FL had a positive outlook for businesses as recently as a year or 2 ago, that has flipped now.

 

[flynnibus]

Obviously...as of yesterday, Disney does NOT believe they need Lake Nona anymore. So, it seems they also think their original concept turned out to be a bad one when placed under their CURRENT economic conditions. The Lake Nona idea was created at a time that was different than it is today.

So what do you believe made it so much more expensive now… vs 2021?

 

[flynnibus]

If the answer is #2...then there is NO reason why they would "not" continue to build it. If the project had REAL revenue generating or cost saving VALUE, there would be NO reason to kill it because DeSants said "mean" things about Disney

You already acknowledged other reasons to kill it on the last page… headwinds with their own people. And knowing the conpany doesn’t live in a bubble (business environment).

You can’t even keep a consistent story 30mins apart.

 

[Cliff]

Everyone here has agreed since page 1 that Disney cannot move WDW from the state. Not possible due to the massive investment that would have to be written off. Lake Nona was a billion dollar project with 2,000+ jobs tied to it. Once Disney spent that money and relocated workers moving those jobs out of the state would have required a billion dollar write-off. It makes perfect sense for the company to pull out of that project now before it’s too expensive to do so. Why create another situation with massive investment at risk? WDW can’t move but office jobs can.

The original project was a long term cost savings for the company as well as a move to a more business friendly state. The company’s own original press releases confirm that. The primary reason it was a cost savings was the tax credits. Without them the move would not have been proposed. Disney stated yesterday that they cancelled due to a change in the business environment. As others pointed out maybe they view those tax credits as being in jeopardy now as well. What’s to stop the Governor from trying to pull them back with a crazy bill like the monorail one that creates a carve out that only impacts Disney? Difficult but not impossible to do. Even without that fear there is always a risk premium associated with political risk anywhere. FL had a positive outlook for businesses as recently as a year or 2 ago, that has flipped now.

The local Lake Nona government never changed anything that would hurt Disney's ability to build there. The state of Florida never did anything to hurt Disney in Lake Nona either. The business and tax conditions in Lake Nona were never under any risk from day one.

The profit/loss business model of Lake Nona is today...exactly what it always was from day one. If their busness model made sense 4 years ago, it still valid today. The Reedy Creek drama has nothing to do with the financial profit/loss potential of the Lake Nona campus idea.

Unless.....Lake Nona was a bad business model idea from day one......

 

[Figgy1]

Everyone here has agreed since page 1 that Disney cannot move WDW from the state. Not possible due to the massive investment that would have to be written off. Lake Nona was a billion dollar project with 2,000+ jobs tied to it. Once Disney spent that money and relocated workers moving those jobs out of the state would have required a billion dollar write-off. It makes perfect sense for the company to pull out of that project now before it’s too expensive to do so. Why create another situation with massive investment at risk? WDW can’t move but office jobs can.

The original project was a long term cost savings for the company as well as a move to a more business friendly state. The company’s own original press releases confirm that. The primary reason it was a cost savings was the tax credits. Without them the move would not have been proposed. Disney stated yesterday that they cancelled due to a change in the business environment. As others pointed out maybe they view those tax credits as being in jeopardy now as well. What’s to stop the Governor from trying to pull them back with a crazy bill like the monorail one that creates a carve out that only impacts Disney? Difficult but not impossible to do. Even without that fear there is always a risk premium associated with political risk anywhere. FL had a positive outlook for businesses as recently as a year or 2 ago, that has flipped now.

My guess is that is the very large platters part of the meal

 

[Figgy1]

The local Lake Nona government never changed anything that would hurt Disney's ability to build there. The state if Florida never did anything to hurt Disney in Lake Nona either. The business and tax conditions in Lake Nona were never under any risk from day one.

The profit/loss business model if Lake Nona is today...exactly what it always was from day one. If their busness model made sense 4 years ago, it still valid today. The Reedy Creek drama has nothing to do with the financial profit/loss potential of the Lake Nona campus idea.

Unless.....Lake Nona was a bad business model idea from day one......

Unless the state changes the terms which wasn't a possibility when it was announced. Now who knows what will happen

 

[seascape]

Disney can walk away and still make money off the deal. The value of the property is higher today than when they purchased it 2 years ago. As many have said, this will not stop investments in the area but it may slow down the growth rate and have a small impact due to the 2,000 jobs lost with an annual payroll of $240,000,000.00 plus the lost payroll taxes, property tax, utilities, insurance and other expences. Hopefully they can move the jobs to Georgia as they do a great amount of filming there and could build an East Coast Campus near Atlanta and still be closer to WDW.

 

[durangojim]

It’s official. Disney is moving the Magic Kingdom to Nova Scotia. I just this on Twitter. You hear it here first.

 

[Cliff]

You already acknowledged other reasons to kill it on the last page… headwinds with their own people. And knowing the conpany doesn’t live in a bubble (business environment).

You can’t even keep a consistent story 30mins apart.

No...im pretty clear. Here is what I say in one simple sentence:

"The Lake Nona Campus died because it had no strong profit/loss/savings business model combined with the fact that there was deep, internal Disney staff hatred for it."

DeSantis did NOT kill Lake Nona. The project died completely on it's own internal factors.

 

[Lilofan]

Disney can walk away and still make money off the deal. The value of the property is higher today than when they purchased it 2 years ago. As many have said, this will not stop investments in the area but it may slow down the growth rate and have a small impact due to the 2,000 jobs lost with an annual payroll of $240,000,000.00 plus the lost payroll taxes, property tax, utilities, insurance and other expences. Hopefully they can move the jobs to Georgia as they do a great amount of filming there and could build an East Coast Campus near Atlanta and still be closer to WDW.

Recall a few years ago when Iger disagreed with Kemp of GA over the GA heartbeat law ? Iger threatened to pull Disney filming out of GA in protest.

 

[mikejs78]

it had no strong profit/loss/savings business model

This is false.

that there was deep, internal Disney staff hatred for it.

This is accurate.

 

[GoofGoof]

No...im pretty clear. Here is what I say in one simple sentence:

The Lake Nona Campus died because it had no strong profit/loss/savings business model combined with the fact that there was deep, internal Disney staff hatred for it.

Why would any company green light a project like this if it had no strong profit/loss/savings associated with it? What you are saying makes no sense. There is not a potential revenue stream from this. It’s not a new theme park or new ride that has the potential to drive business or attract customers. It’s just moving overhead costs.

 

[Cliff]

Why would any company green light a project like this if it had no strong profit/loss/savings associated with it? What you are saying makes no sense. There is not a potential revenue stream from this. It’s not a new theme park or new ride that has the potential to drive business or attract customers. It’s just moving overhead costs.

Why would Disney spend years developing a 200 million dollar Nightime Spectacular...only to say "woops...we screwed up" and yank it all out just one year later? They even made a "live" Disney + show to help promote it...just one month before they axed the whole thing!!

Why would Disney spend millions doing research and development and construction on an elaborate, emersive hotel....only to close it less than two years later.

Makes no sense...right? Years and years of thoughtfull work and planning and research....all flipped upside down like a pancake overnight. Yep....Disney actually does this.

 

[GoofGoof]

Why would Disney spend years developing a 200 million dollar Nightime Spectacular...only to say "woops...we screwed up" and yank it all out just one year later? They even made a "live" Disney + show to help promote it...just one month before they axed the whole thing!!

Why would Disney spend millions doing research and development and construction on an elaborate, emersive hotel....only to close it less than two years later.

Makes no sense...right? Years and years of thoughtfull work and planning and research....all flipped upside down like a pancake overnight. Yep....Disney actually does this.

Those projects were all tied to revenue streams and bringing customers in and increasing sales. This is an office building for support staff. The model for the Star Wars hotel wasn’t negative when they built it and they just built it anyway. They had a model that showed that if the resort sold a certain number of rooms it would be profitable. They failed to bring in the sales. It wasn’t profitable so it’s closing. That is nothing like relocating office employees. The only benefit to doing that is cost savings. The project does not get approved otherwise.

 

[el_super]

DeSantis did NOT kill Lake Nona. The project died completely on it's own internal factors.

Both things can be true. Disney didn't cancel Lake Nona because of their current legal fight with the governor.

But did 90% of the people asked saying no to moving, have something to do with the recent laws enacted in Florida? Probably.

Did the relocation costs increasing because of housing issues and insurance play a part? Probably.

Did construction delays seem imminent because of the exodus of construction workers in the state? Probably.

Did a sudden glut of office space causes by layoffs make the expense redundant and unnecessary? Yeah probably.

Will Disney continue to invest in Florida? Yep.

 

[LAKid53]

Disneyland fights Anaheim all the time. Maybe its time to move Disneyland to another place where the local government wont tell them "no"??

The relationship between the City and TWDC has improved.

 

[GoofGoof]

Both things can be true. Disney didn't cancel Lake Nona because of their current legal fight with the governor.

But did 90% of the people asked saying no to moving, have something to do with the recent laws enacted in Florida? Probably.

Did the relocation costs increasing because of housing issues and insurance play a part? Probably.

Did construction delays seem imminent because of the exodus of construction workers in the state? Probably.

Did a sudden glut of office space causes by layoffs make the expense redundant and unnecessary? Yeah probably.

Will Disney continue to invest in Florida? Yep.

I agree with this. The RCID lawsuits was certainly not the only reason for Disney cancelling, but I do think it played a part. There were certainly other factors. The hostile climate in the state and the issues related to housing and insurance are all directly related to the Governor. He bares some of the blame for that. The current layoffs at TWDC means less of a need for more office space. Certainly a factor. So it wasn’t that the move never made sense at all it’s that some of the cost savings are gone. The original proposition was rent/buy space in CA or add space in FL and the FL plan was cheaper long term especially with the tax credits. Now that plan makes less sense since they have some excess space in CA. Long term they will likely need the space again but I suppose then they can redo the math and see if it makes sense then.

The fact that the CMs don’t want to go is at least somewhat related to the fight with DeSantis. There’s no way to deny that. Not the only factor but still a part of it.

 

[DCBaker]

DeSantis has filed a motion to disqualify Chief Judge Mark E. Walker.

DEFENDANTS’ MOTION TO DISQUALIFY
CHIEF JUDGE MARK E. WALKER

Defendants move to disqualify Chief Judge Mark E. Walker (the Court) under
28 U.S.C. § 455(a) because the Court’s impartiality in this matter might reasonably
be questioned. This case involves claims that Defendants retaliated against Walt Dis-
ney Parks and Resorts U.S., Inc. based on Disney’s viewpoints. Yet two previous
times, in two unrelated cases, the Court sua sponte offered “Disney” as an example
of state retaliation. Those remarks—each derived from extrajudicial sources—were
on the record, in open court, and could reasonably imply that the Court has prejudged
the retaliation question here. Because that question is now before this Court, and
because that question involves highly publicized matters of great interest to Florida’s
citizens, the Court should disqualify itself to prevent even the appearance of impro-
priety.

Here's the full motion.