How do you know that the reputational damage isn't due to the fact that Disney didn't speak up sooner? Or that a decent portion of it is?
I don't. But not speaking up sooner, or taking the "neutral" position originally, may also contribute to it being a bad business decision.
Regardless, short-term polls don't always (and frequently don't) translate to long-term brand damage. If these polls are the same or similar 6 months to a year from now, then we can talk. But just the fact that there's an immediate reaction (even though we don't know what that reaction is, exactly, we can only speculate) doesn't make it a bad business decision.
I disagree. Companies should never be ok with such dramatic hits to their reputation, short-lived or otherwise. In Disney's case, it's even worse considering how they were among the most beloved American brands for the better part of a century.
Well, then it isn't a bad business decision if that's the case, no?
It is bad business if it negatively affects their reputation.
The reason why I said I wouldn't count on it affecting their bottom line to any measurable amount, and which can be tied to this issue, is because most parents aren't willing to look their small kids in the eye and tell them that they're canceling their WDW vacation because of Disney's stances on LGBT issues. Same thing with D+ subscriptions, tickets to the latest Marvel movie, etc.
The reputation matters long-term, when parents of children who are not already being brought up on Disney stories and experiences begin to avoid introducing them to these things because they don't trust Disney. This is highly speculative, to be fair, but if we are to believe the polling, and, as you said, it holds up over time, I can see this becoming an issue.
Who could have predicted that? Seriously? A normal reaction might be for the Governor of FL to speak out, encourage boycotts, attack Disney publicly. It is completely abnormal to have a reaction like we had with RCID, and it should not be normalized in this country. It's authoritarian. In hindsight, this might be the only case that could be made so far that it was a bad business decision, but no one could have predicted this scenario we are in today.
It was an unprecedented response, to be sure. But, as the saying goes, "hindsight is 20:20." When evaluating if a decision was a bad one, you have to look back on what was decided originally and what the consequences were.