Ready to buy, push me over the edge

nickys · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
People keep saying "Aulani dues grow faster" but they're currently sitting at a 3.8% CAGR compared to 3.7% at Beach Club, 4.3% at Boulder Ridge, etc. So they're right in line with everywhere else. Granted, it's a newer resort so you never know for sure.

I already have cash rooms booked at Caribbean Beach in April and Aulani in November, so I'm okay with that. I'm going to target a contract with the 2021 points already spent to keep my $/pt. down.

Looks like the quote function gremlin at work. I didn’t say any of the first quote.

CastAStone · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
People keep saying "Aulani dues grow faster" but they're currently sitting at a 3.8% CAGR compared to 3.7% at Beach Club, 4.3% at Boulder Ridge, etc. So they're right in line with everywhere else. Granted, it's a newer resort so you never know for sure.

The track record of the other beach resorts isn’t promising. And the dues are high to begin with, so those CAGRs hit harder.

Im too lazy to check right now but I believe Aulanis increases the last few years have been much steeper than 3.8%

CastAStone · Feb 25, 2021

WDW is generally fully booked out at 7 months for a number of the days in the first 2 weeks of December, and that’s usually it.

But with all the tinkering they’re doing with the point charts, that is highly subject to change. They’re now annually moving points out of the summer, when it’s unpleasant to be in Florida so DVC popularity has been low, and into the fall, where it’s historically been cheap.

If you’re looking at 1BRs that will make it much easier to move rooms at 7 months.

CaptainAmerica · Feb 25, 2021

CastAStone said:
The track record of the other beach resorts isn’t promising. And the dues are high to begin with, so those CAGRs hit harder.

Im too lazy to check right now but I believe Aulanis increases the last few years have been much steeper than 3.8%

Only 0.3% this year, but this isn't really a normal year.

Sirwalterraleigh · Feb 25, 2021

nickys said:
So it’s not not only about extra nights but multiple trips. If people are doing parks from opening to closing, they don’t care about the view.

Plus some people may not have enough points for a better room, especially if they want to try new resorts.

That’s a good point...studios used to be 8 a night in low season at okw...12-15 at “nicer” spots such as boardwalk, beach club and wilderness lodge...

So they bought points based on those prices...Disney moved the goal posts on them some (which they can do as they did by dumping one bedroom points into the studios)...but they also started doing silly upcharges on points. The new Caribbean place start at 15-18 and go way up from there. Gf and poly are obviously a lot more.

Times change...so do sales angles.

CaptainAmerica · Feb 25, 2021

CastAStone said:
WDW is generally fully booked out at 7 months for a number of the days in the first 2 weeks of December, and that’s usually it.

But with all the tinkering they’re doing with the point charts, that is highly subject to change. They’re now annually moving points out of the summer, when it’s unpleasant to be in Florida so DVC popularity has been low, and into the fall, where it’s historically been cheap.

If you’re looking at 1BRs that will make it much easier to move rooms at 7 months.

Is there a handy chart anywhere that shows unit occupancy by resort? Thinking specifically about which Studios and which 1BR sleep 4 versus 5.

What's the big surge in early December? Seems like a lousy time to take kids out of school.

nickys · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
Is there a handy chart anywhere that shows unit occupancy by resort? Thinking specifically about which Studios and which 1BR sleep 4 versus 5.

What's the big surge in early December? Seems like a lousy time to take kids out of school.

Low points chart, Christmas decorations and parties.

I’m sure there is a chart somewhere, let me have a look ........

CaptainAmerica · Feb 25, 2021

nickys said:
Low points chart, Christmas decorations and parties.

I’m sure there is a chart somewhere, let me have a look ........

That's actually very encouraging because it seems more and more that my travel pattern will work nicely with what's available when. I'm not afraid of summer in Florida and I strongly dislike the parties AND the holiday decorations. Win-win.

ParentsOf4 · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
That leaves:

Animal Kingdom

Aulani

Saratoga Springs

Old Key West 2057

Since Old Key West 2057 is just about impossible to find, we're focusing on the other three. Our most common travel pattern will be to bank-and-borrow to do 8 nights in a two bedroom villa every three years in the summer or late April (i.e. not Christmas, Easter, peak Spring Break, Presidents' Week, Thanksgiving, or Food and Wine). Our choice will come down to relative resort availability at the 7 month window. The math makes the most sense at Saratoga, so the crux of my question is what type of availability can I expect to see at Animal Kingdom and Aulani at 7 months? I don't mind being "stuck" at Saratoga once in awhile, but I'd rather not stay there every time, especially since both the Studios and 1BRs only have a capacity of 4.

Aulani 2-bedroom villa is readily available at 7 months.

Saratoga Springs 2-bedroom also is readily available at 7 months.

Animal Kingdom is the toughest of these 3 but still usually available at 7 months.

In general, 2-bedroom villas are relatively easy to book except for at the Boardwalk Villas, which has no dedicated 2-bedroom villas (and is a popular resort because of its location).

However ...

Animal Kingdom Value rooms and Club level rooms are extremely difficult to book, even at 11 months.

For comparison, a week in late April for a 2-bedroom villa is:

SSR Standard: 280 points
SSR Preferred: 340 points
AKV Value: 220 points
AKV Standard: 278 points
AKV Savannah View: 354 points
AKV Club: 461 points

Two points to take away from this:

If you ever hope to stay at an AKV Value or Club room, you have to own there or get lucky with a cancellation.
When considering the math, and if you can get it, a 2-bedroom AKV Value is going to cost you the least per night. Again, if you can get it.

Another consideration is that the AKV Kidani 1-bedroom sleeps 5 and has 2 bathrooms. We are a family of 6 but have found this works well for us when there are 5 of us.

For comparison, a week in late April for a 1-bedroom villa at Kidani is:

Standard: 214 points
Savannah View: 258 points

Even now, in late February, these 1-bedrooms are available for late April, so you typically don't need to own at AKV to book these.

CaptainAmerica · Feb 25, 2021

ParentsOf4 said:
Aulani 2-bedroom villa is readily available at 7 months.

Saratoga Springs 2-bedroom also is readily available at 7 months.

Animal Kingdom is the toughest of these 3 but still usually available at 7 months.

In genera, 2-bedroom villas are relatively easy to book except for at the Boardwalk Villas, which has no dedicated 2-bedroom villas.

However ...

Animal Kingdom Value rooms and Club level rooms are extremely difficult to book, even at 11 months.

For comparison, a week in late April for a 2-bedroom villa is:

SSR Standard: 280 points

SSR Preferred: 340 points

AKV Value: 220 points

AKV Standard: 278 points

AKV Savannah View: 354 points

AKV Club: 461 points

Two points to take away from this:

If you ever hope to stay at an AKV Value or Club room, you have to own there or get lucky with a cancellation.

When considering the math, and if you can get it, a 2-bedroom AKV is going to cost you the least per night. Again, if you can get it.

Another consideration is that the AKV Kidani 1-bedroom sleeps 5 and has 2 bathrooms. We are a family of 6 but have found this works well for us when there are 5 of us.

For comparison, a week in late April for a 1-bedroom villa at Kidani is:

Standard: 214 points

Savannah View: 258 points

Even now, in late February, these 1-bedrooms are available for late April, so you typically don't need to own at AKV to book these.

Is it fair to assume that Standard View at Kidani is pretty bad? I've had a ton of luck as a cash guest at Jambo where every time I book a standard view room, I've gotten something on the savanna that's just partially obstructed or in some way less-than-perfect where Disney can't sell it as savanna. But I assume Kidani standard is parking lot, period?

nickys · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
Is it fair to assume that Standard View at Kidani is pretty bad? I've had a ton of luck as a cash guest at Jambo where every time I book a standard view room, I've gotten something on the savanna that's just partially obstructed or in some way less-than-perfect where Disney can't sell it as savanna. But I assume Kidani standard is parking lot, period?

The parking at Kidani is underground.

On one wing, farthest away from Jambo, most look out across the road to the pool area. But you can see beyond the boundary too. Further along some have a view of the Pembe Savannah, where the red river hogs live - so no giraffes (the hogs are pretty vicious and bite the legs of the giraffes).
The other wing I guess looks out across the road and some maybe towards the Jambo parking lot. We stayed near the Rafiki elevator and looked over to the pool.

ParentsOf4 · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
Is it fair to assume that Standard View at Kidani is pretty bad? I've had a ton of luck as a cash guest at Jambo where every time I book a standard view room, I've gotten something on the savanna that's just partially obstructed or in some way less-than-perfect where Disney can't sell it as savanna. But I assume Kidani standard is parking lot, period?

nickys said:
The parking at Kidani is underground.

On one wing, farthest away from Jambo, most look out across the road to the pool area. But you can see beyond the boundary too. Further along some have a view of the Pembe Savannah, where the red river hogs live - so no giraffes (the hogs are pretty vicious and bite the legs of the giraffes).
The other wing I guess looks out across the road and some maybe towards the Jambo parking lot. We stayed near the Rafiki elevator and looked over to the pool.

Kidani Standard View essentially looks at bus stops or parking lots.

Mike730 · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
Is there a handy chart anywhere that shows unit occupancy by resort? Thinking specifically about which Studios and which 1BR sleep 4 versus 5.

What's the big surge in early December? Seems like a lousy time to take kids out of school.

No comment on the site, but this is the best data I've seen so far.

DVC Rooms - Charts with detailed room info

I have been working on pulling together information about the various DVC Rooms and all the "numbers" for them. It all started with me wanting to learn more about which rooms were better for 5 people, and then it grew from there. Please let me know if you see any issues or things that need...

easywdwforums.com

Mike730 · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
Resorts we're not considering and why:

Decent price per point but contract ends too soon: Boulder Ridge, Old Key West 2042

I'd like to prod you for some justification here. Why are these definitely out of the picture?

Apparently you stayed at WL twice last year.

CaptainAmerica · Feb 25, 2021

Mike730 said:
I'd like to prod you for some justification here. Why are these definitely out of the picture?

Apparently you stayed at WL twice last year.

I built a financial model and there just aren't enough years yet to get the necessary value out of the upfront cost.

CastAStone · Feb 25, 2021

my standard room at Kidani in 2019 had this view. That is technically savannah in front of us and animals came by regularly. If we had paid for Savannah I’d be disappointed. As we paid for standard I was thrilled.

and if you went on the porch and turned left...

CastAStone · Feb 25, 2021

CaptainAmerica said:
Is there a handy chart anywhere that shows unit occupancy by resort? Thinking specifically about which Studios and which 1BR sleep 4 versus 5.

What's the big surge in early December? Seems like a lousy time to take kids out of school.

The “UK Statement of Key Information” I find to be a pretty useful reference. It’s buried in the footer on all pages of the DVC site.

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/media/dvc/en/_global/footer/Standard-Information-form-for-timeshare-contracts.pdf

CaptainAmerica · Feb 25, 2021

Alright, last question because I'm sure I've exhausted all of you.

With *current* borrowing restrictions in place, can I do the following:

Purchase a 200 point contract, February use year, 130 banked points, 199 current year points.

Borrow 100 points from 2022 and buy 3 single-use points for a total of 432 and use those for an Aulani stay in November 2021 (assuming there's availability by the time I'd be able to close).

KBLovedDisney · Feb 25, 2021