Ready to buy, push me over the edge

[Sirwalterraleigh]

After going back and forth for years and with a stimulus check likely on the way, I think we're finally going to jump into DVC if we can get a good price.

What we know:

• 160 to 200 points
• Resale
• Not picky about use year

Resorts we're not considering and why:

• Too expensive upfront: Bay Lake Tower, Beach Club, Boardwalk, Copper Creek, Grand Californian, Grand Floridian, Polynesian
• Decent price per point but contract ends too soon: Boulder Ridge, Old Key West 2042
• High and unpredictable fees: Hilton Head, Vero Beach
• I hate it with a passion: Riviera

That leaves:

• Animal Kingdom
• Aulani
• Saratoga Springs
• Old Key West 2057

Since Old Key West 2057 is just about impossible to find, we're focusing on the other three. Our most common travel pattern will be to bank-and-borrow to do 8 nights in a two bedroom villa every three years in the summer or late April (i.e. not Christmas, Easter, peak Spring Break, Presidents' Week, Thanksgiving, or Food and Wine). Our choice will come down to relative resort availability at the 7 month window. The math makes the most sense at Saratoga, so the crux of my question is what type of availability can I expect to see at Animal Kingdom and Aulani at 7 months? I don't mind being "stuck" at Saratoga once in awhile, but I'd rather not stay there every time, especially since both the Studios and 1BRs only have a capacity of 4.

Direct from Disney doesn’t make sense

None of the 2042 makes sense (that’s a frequent argument that’s actually one sided)

I can Sorta justify GF...but not bay lake (yuck) and wilderness part deux.

That leaves basically Saratoga, poly and AK

AK is your winner.


By the way: pay cash. Never “finance” vacations. So steal you neighbors stimulus checks too

 

[CaptainAmerica]

By the way: pay cash. Never “finance” vacations.

You know I know that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It really is fascinating to me how the lowest points-cost rooms are the first to go at pretty much every resort. I understand the urge to get the most nights for your points, but I think I'll be much more inclined to hunt for value by seeking out the best points-per-dollar-of-rack-rate.

If I'm going to drop $20,000+ on a vacation club, I'm absolutely not going to be staying in a standard view studio at Aulani.

You’re completely backwards from the conventional DVC logic, bub...

In most cases - paying more points for views is just silly. Maybe not Aulani...but at wilderness lodge? Nobody cares.

Less points per room = more value from your deed. And with ticket and room prices no longer reasonable...you want that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You know I know that.

It’s a PSA.

...so few in disneydom get this

 

[CastAStone]

You’re completely backwards from the conventional DVC logic, bub...

In most cases - paying more points for views is just silly. Maybe not Aulani...but at wilderness lodge? Nobody cares.

Less points per room = more value from your deed. And with ticket and room prices no longer reasonable...you want that.

There’s nothing Disney has done that I can remember that took more cajones than calling the parking lot view at Bay Lake Tower a “Theme Park View” because if you squint you can sorta make out the castle and space mountain.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You’re completely backwards from the conventional DVC logic, bub...

In most cases - paying more points for views is just silly. Maybe not Aulani...but at wilderness lodge? Nobody cares.

Less points per room = more value from your deed. And with ticket and room prices no longer reasonable...you want that.

Not just view, but unit size, which to me is the whole point of moving to a villa in the first place. No, I would not like to spend a week in a unit the size of a standard hotel room with five people, three of which are sleeping on pull-out furniture.

There’s nothing Disney has done that I can remember that took more cajones than calling the parking lot view at Bay Lake Tower a “Theme Park View” because if you squint you can sorta make out the castle and space mountain.

I think the fireworks are the main selling point on that one, which is kind of legit. Still not for me, but I can see it.

But obviously it's nothing like the theme park views at the Grand Cali, which I recommend everyone do for at least one night if you can afford it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not just view, but unit size, which to me is the whole point of moving to a villa in the first place. No, I would not like to spend a week in a unit the size of a standard hotel room with five people, three of which are sleeping on pull-out furniture.

Well you’re talking about category differences...which isn’t the same thing.

I don’t view DVC as anykind of status symbol. The money just made sense when I bought it.

But many do. i like the 2 bedrooms as much as anyone. But it’s not a situation of whether I’m picking between a 2 or a studio. It’s what makes sense.

“Gee...I really wish i could get that 2 bedroom...but I’ll have to settle for a studio”

No. I honestly have never heard anyone else say that either.

But I’m not cooking in my room (defeats the point of going) or entertaining other parties. So to each their own.

Don’t you live in orlando? Why do you want to “sprawl out”? Or are you the Atlanta guy? Can’t remember.


As far a a Disneyland goes. I’ve had the park view at grand Californian...and honestly I like the view at Disneyland hotel better. Personal preference. You’re not gonna get villas in California anyway...except maybe now

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There’s nothing Disney has done that I can remember that took more cajones than calling the parking lot view at Bay Lake Tower a “Theme Park View” because if you squint you can sorta make out the castle and space mountain.

That maybe my least favorite DVC after they improved Saratoga some...

It’s just not good grounds or facilities for the most part. Lack of recreational space being a big one for me.

After my kids passed stroller age...the appeal disappeared.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Don’t you live in orlando? Why do you want to “sprawl out”? Or are you the Atlanta guy? Can’t remember.

Neither. Connecticut.

Lots of reasons... My wife and I do much better in a king bed, we have three kids, and we're often bringing someone along with us for the trip, whether that's a sister or Grandma and Grandpa or whomever.

Plus, we do like to cook breakfast most mornings. We always have hot breakfast at home and I make much better scrambled eggs than Disney does, so that's just part of our routine whenever we're in a villa or cabin.

Besides, my comparison isn't really 2BR-versus-Studio, it's more Studio-versus-not-buying-DVC-in-the-first-place-and-just-staying-in-regular-hotel-rooms. Is a Studio at Saratoga any better than a standard room at Caribbean Beach? I'm not convinced. And if that's the comparison, it's much harder to make the math work.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Neither. Connecticut.

Lots of reasons... My wife and I do much better in a king bed, we have three kids, and we're often bringing someone along with us for the trip, whether that's a sister or Grandma and Grandpa or whomever.

Plus, we do like to cook breakfast most mornings. We always have hot breakfast at home and I make much better scrambled eggs than Disney does, so that's just part of our routine whenever we're in a villa or cabin.

Besides, my comparison isn't really 2BR-versus-Studio, it's more Studio-versus-not-buying-DVC-in-the-first-place-and-just-staying-in-regular-hotel-rooms. Is a Studio at Saratoga any better than a standard room at Caribbean Beach? I'm not convinced. And if that's the comparison, it's much harder to make the math work.

Connecticut?!?

...I’ll add that to your psychological profile

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A studio at Saratoga isn’t leaps and bounds better than a room at Caribbean...

What’s better is a DVC contract so you are paying way less than $275 a night for a room at Caribbean. Access to tables in wonderland is a nice bonus too.

But the contract has to make sense. Anyone telling you to buy because of an 11 months window you likely won’t or likely don’t want to use on a contract that’s 45-60% already used doesn’t make sense. Those prices are 2x higher than originally sold as well. It’s a used timeshare , not a collectors item.

 

[striker1064]

Counter-point.... Aulani is sooooooo good.

That's fair, but counter-counter-point... the general advice is to book your home resort at 11 months so you have a place to stay, and switch at 7 months if you can. What do you do if you've bought Aulani and WDW is completely booked at 7 months? Going to Hawaii I guess, which has its pros and cons.

 

[nickys]

It really is fascinating to me how the lowest points-cost rooms are the first to go at pretty much every resort. I understand the urge to get the most nights for your points, but I think I'll be much more inclined to hunt for value by seeking out the best points-per-dollar-of-rack-rate.

If I'm going to drop $20,000+ on a vacation club, I'm absolutely not going to be staying in a standard view studio at Aulani.

So it’s not not only about extra nights but multiple trips. If people are doing parks from opening to closing, they don’t care about the view.

Plus some people may not have enough points for a better room, especially if they want to try new resorts.

 

[rreading]

We have 2 contracts: one 80pts at Hilton Head since it was a cheap buy-in; the second 160 at VGC to be able to stay at the Grand Califlornian in DL when we wanted to. Both resale.

We tend to book at 7months out and sometimes it's a studio if it's just the kids and I. If my wife (who's not addicted to Disney) chooses to come then we get a 1BR as she enjoys the space. If we're bringing friends or extended family we love the 2BR.

We usually are able to get the room we're looking for but we don't book over the Xmas/Thanksgiving holidays nor spring break. If not at one nice resort, there's always another good consideration. I've always been amenable to staying at SSR if needed but we've never needed to. Rarely is Beach Club available so if you wanted to stay there, then buy that one; but everything else has been available. We haven't wanted to stay at Jambo House. Kidani is fabulous - the first stop on the bus. Really nice pool area. Easy walk to Jambo (or catch any bus as the next stop will be Jambo). But if Jambo is difficult to get a room in then consider buying it.

It's commonly said that you should buy where you want to stay. But unless it's never available (VGC or Beach Club - maybe Jambo), I wouldn't worry about where you buy.

We've moved away from getting the 2BR spaces since we're wanting to go more often these days...and life is all about choices.

(one other point in favor of buying DVC is that you can sell the points at VGF for $15pp through a broker. In a year in which we don't use them, the points are super easy to unload)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

That's fair, but counter-counter-point... the general advice is to book your home resort at 11 months so you have a place to stay, and switch at 7 months if you can. What do you do if you've bought Aulani and WDW is completely booked at 7 months? Going to Hawaii I guess, which has its pros and cons.

Counter-counter-counter-point, if I *am* going to Hawaii, I'm much more inclined to start planning flights and other logistics at 11 months than I would be if I'm going to Orlando.

Also, it seems from the availability charts that WDW being *completely* booked at 7 months is just about unheard of, assuming I'm flexible with resort and room type.

(Don't stop arguing with me. My very strong instinct is to buy Aulani and I want as much evidence to the contrary as possible.)

 

[rreading]

Counter-counter-counter-point, if I *am* going to Hawaii, I'm much more inclined to start planning flights and other logistics at 11 months than I would be if I'm going to Orlando.

Also, it seems from the availability charts that WDW being *completely* booked at 7 months is just about unheard of, assuming I'm flexible with resort and room type.

(Don't stop arguing with me. My very strong instinct is to buy Aulani and I want as much evidence to the contrary as possible.)

I think buying Aulani is reasonable if HI is where you want to go. Part of the argument in buying HHI initially was that were we going to want to stay there, it would be nice to have priority booking to stay at the nicest part of the year since visiting the beach would be so seasonal on the east coast.

However, we've never visited. We've used all our points then bought more staying at WDW and DL.

But if there's a desirable time to go to HI then you would want to be able to stay there in the room you would want there. Since there aren't Disney alternatives in HI, it would be nice to be able to lock in there - assuming that Oahu is the island you continue to want to visit

 

[striker1064]

Counter-counter-counter-point, if I *am* going to Hawaii, I'm much more inclined to start planning flights and other logistics at 11 months than I would be if I'm going to Orlando.

Also, it seems from the availability charts that WDW being *completely* booked at 7 months is just about unheard of, assuming I'm flexible with resort and room type.

(Don't stop arguing with me. My very strong instinct is to buy Aulani and I want as much evidence to the contrary as possible.)

Yes, I was actually thinking of mentioning it's not often WDW is totally booked at 7 months, but it doesn't fit my narrative. So there.

Here's the issues with that. I've mentioned I don't track summer bookings since we rarely travel at that time, but in general the most open options will be SSR, AKV, and OKW. However, there could be breaks in the days/weeks you want to book, so it means you'll have to book a partial stay and keep checking the website for your unavailable days to come open. I've done this a few times before, it's not super pleasant, but it does work. You just have to be ok with continuously checking availability to get what you want, especially if it's a more popular place.

Aulani's dues are also growing pretty quickly. It's possible you can find a subsidized dues contract, but getting a normal contract is much more likely. Aulani's dues are more expensive than all other WDW resorts except for RIV and, strangely, OKW. The accountant in me isn't as comfortable using more expensive points at a less expensive resort.

 

[nickys]

Counter-counter-counter-point, if I *am* going to Hawaii, I'm much more inclined to start planning flights and other logistics at 11 months than I would be if I'm going to Orlando.

Also, it seems from the availability charts that WDW being *completely* booked at 7 months is just about unheard of, assuming I'm flexible with resort and room type.

(Don't stop arguing with me. My very strong instinct is to buy Aulani and I want as much evidence to the contrary as possible.)

All bets are off for availability at 7 months for at least a couple of years, once confidence returns and bookings start taking off.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yes, I was actually thinking of mentioning it's not often WDW is totally booked at 7 months, but it doesn't fit my narrative. So there.

Here's the issues with that. I've mentioned I don't track summer bookings since we rarely travel at that time, but in general the most open options will be SSR, AKV, and OKW. However, there could be breaks in the days/weeks you want to book, so it means you'll have to book a partial stay and keep checking the website for your unavailable days to come open. I've done this a few times before, it's not super pleasant, but it does work. You just have to be ok with continuously checking availability to get what you want, especially if it's a more popular place.

Aulani's dues are also growing pretty quickly. It's possible you can find a subsidized dues contract, but getting a normal contract is much more likely. Aulani's dues are more expensive than all other WDW resorts except for RIV and, strangely, OKW. The accountant in me isn't as comfortable using more expensive points at a less expensive resort.

People keep saying "Aulani dues grow faster" but they're currently sitting at a 3.8% CAGR compared to 3.7% at Beach Club, 4.3% at Boulder Ridge, etc. So they're right in line with everywhere else. Granted, it's a newer resort so you never know for sure.

All bets are off for availability at 7 months for at least a couple of years, once confidence returns and bookings start taking off.

I already have cash rooms booked at Caribbean Beach in April and Aulani in November, so I'm okay with that. I'm going to target a contract with the 2021 points already spent to keep my $/pt. down.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Counter-counter-counter-point, if I *am* going to Hawaii, I'm much more inclined to start planning flights and other logistics at 11 months than I would be if I'm going to Orlando.

Also, it seems from the availability charts that WDW being *completely* booked at 7 months is just about unheard of, assuming I'm flexible with resort and room type.

(Don't stop arguing with me. My very strong instinct is to buy Aulani and I want as much evidence to the contrary as possible.)

So my .02. We have owned at SSR for over 14 years, and while we love the resort, and have stayed there many times, we still want to stay at every other DVC resort at some point. We always book at 11 months at SSR, just to ensure we have a place to stay, and then switch at the 7 month mark. We have travelled in March, May, Sept, Oct, and Dec in different years. We typically get 1 bedrooms just for the 2 of us, as we love the king bed and extra amenities. We've stayed in everything from a studio to a GV at SSR, OKW, Poly, VGF, BWV, BCV, AKL - both Jambo and Kidani, and BLT. BR and CC are the only 2 that have always been booked. We have also stayed at VGC, HH, and Aulani already. We were easily able to book a studio at Aulani in March, and any other size was available as well at the 7 month mark, we just didn't want to use the points for that trip for a 1 bedroom.

I tend to agree with @nickys that availability at 7 months might be a bit harder to come by, but I think that won't really start until next year.

So unless you favor going to Hawaii multiple times, then I would definitely consider AKL or SSR instead. It's very doubtful that you would get "stuck" at SSR very often, and the dues are quite a bit lower. Good luck in your choice!