Rapid Fill Mug Program Fails (at more ways than you might think)

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
It's the same thinking that justifies bypassing parking fees... condiment sandwiches... etc.

People abuse leeways and then get upset when the freedoms get taken away.


I blame 'creative accounting' more than soda banditry, but if DCL can give soda away so can the resorts at rates charged, Lets face it the non-resort guests are a tiny fraction of those using machines
 

SirLink

Well-Known Member
It would have been nice if people just didn't steal soda in the first place. Maybe the system doesn't work great, but I think it's the right move to try to at least limit this type of activity. Once you look the other way for a minor theft like soda people start feeling empowered to steal other food items or maybe things from the gift shop. Best to nip that activity up front and weed those kinda people out.

Since they were requiring magic bands for all resort guests anyway it would have been smarter/easier to just build a machine that dispenses soda after you swipe your band/card. If you buy a refillable mug it would get added to your band and you could swipe your band and get soda whenever you wanted. If you buy an individual drink at lunch when you pay it could just add that drink to your band and make it only active for 1 hour. After the hour it's removed. Swipe your band at the scanner on the drink machine and fill up. No need to change the cups or pay for anything more than the cost of installing the scanners on the drink machines which they had to do anyway. In a rare case where an off property guest is eating at a resort quick service restaurant they could be given a temporary card that would be activated for an hour when they pay for the cup and returned at the end of their meal.

The easiest way is to not allow refills, and reduce the price. Or allow refills. Lets use the K.I.S.S. method and not overthink the obvious.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The easiest way is to not allow refills, and reduce the price. Or allow refills. Lets use the K.I.S.S. method and not overthink the obvious.

I guess they could have not allowed refills, moved the drink machines behind the counter like some counter service restaurants in the parks and just gotten rid of the refillable mugs. That would have been relatively easy, but I think people like the refillable mugs and they are probably profitable. You would be decreasing the guest experience and losing money in the process.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
Then you have to ban non-hotel guests from the restaurants. That's hard to enforce. I know it's just anecdotal evidence, but a bunch of people around here who are self proclaimed proud soda thieves aren't staying at a Disney hotel when they are doing it.

Not worth it since Disney resorts have relatively strong access controls the number of non-disney resort guests on property at any time is quite small. Disney really needs to get over the OCD control freak mentality it has been exhibiting recently.

It's like the photons from the field lights in baseball, yes there IS a measurable effect on the balls path but its so small it's lost in the underflow. Or the example from intro to mech eng - When a fly lands on an aircraft carrier the whole structure deflects but not enough to MATTER.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
I guess they could have not allowed refills, moved the drink machines behind the counter like some counter service restaurants in the parks and just gotten rid of the refillable mugs. That would have been relatively easy, but I think people like the refillable mugs and they are probably profitable. You would be decreasing the guest experience and losing money in the process.

Well they have certainly degraded the guest experience along with increasing Opex, the RFID tag costs more than a gallon of water+soda mix...
 

SirLink

Well-Known Member
I guess they could have not allowed refills, moved the drink machines behind the counter like some counter service restaurants in the parks and just gotten rid of the refillable mugs. That would have been relatively easy, but I think people like the refillable mugs and they are probably profitable. You would be decreasing the guest experience and losing money in the process.

Then TDO has to shrug its shoulders, huff and puff, and realise they are only losing about $0.02 worth of syrup per soda ... and understand its just not a worthwhile endeavor - how about they put this amount of scrutiny on guests who destroy property and steal in the parks?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Not worth it since Disney resorts have relatively strong access controls the number of non-disney resort guests on property at any time is quite small. Disney really needs to get over the OCD control freak mentality it has been exhibiting recently.

It's like the photons from the field lights in baseball, yes there IS a measurable effect on the balls path but its so small it's lost in the underflow. Or the example from intro to mech eng - When a fly lands on an aircraft carrier the whole structure deflects but not enough to MATTER.
Probably true at the values and moderates which are off the beaten path, but places like CR or Poly with monorail access and popular restaurants are filled with non-resort guests. I could see it being more of a problem there. Filling up on free soda before hopping the bus back to DTD where you parked for free.

I would think they could add $2 per person to the nightly room rate and just provide the mugs for free. Then they could just offer unlimited refills to everyone. A bunch of people are already getting the mugs as part of DDP so it would mean even more profits and less hassle plus you could advertise it as an on property perk. A simple way to solve the off property problem is to go back to resort specific mugs with the year on them or different lid colors rotating through the years. If someone is trying to use last years mug they could simply be asked to leave.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Then TDO has to shrug its shoulders, huff and puff, and realise they are only losing about $0.02 worth of syrup per soda ... and understand its just not a worthwhile endeavor - how about they put this amount of scrutiny on guests who destroy property and steal in the parks?
IMHO the fact that they let people steal soda is a factor in people stealing in the parks. If it's known that Disney looks the other way while people rob them blind it only encourages more of that type of activity. The soda may be a small thing, but it can help set a tone of less tolerance for stealing.
 

wendysue

Well-Known Member
Boy is that the truth, my boyfriend has no debit card...and plenty of disposable income. The computer is great for email and he has figured out how to download his pictures of deer and other wildlife onto the computer from the camera he has set up at the deer stand but still has issues opening attachments.

My mother spent the past 20 years doing computer billing for a doctor's office but still has a flip phone....

And a lot of people simply don't want to use "technology" for the task of eating and drinking. I'm the last person who wants a fuss and a mess trying to get a soda with small ones in tow when you are hungry and trying to get everyone fed and off to more activity.

I agree. We still have flip phones, because we just don't CARE about apps, shopping, gps, or all the other crap you supposedly can do with a phone. Won't pay for it, don't need it. As long as I can make a simple phone call, I'm happy. It will be interesting when guests can't get into their rooms, the parks, buy food, etc. because they are down for a couple hours or days..
We resent that WDW is trying to shove all this technology down our throats. They have taken all the fun out of a spontaneous vacation. (OK, I'll get off my soapbox now) :banghead:
 

SirLink

Well-Known Member
IMHO the fact that they let people steal soda is a factor in people stealing in the parks. If it's known that Disney looks the other way while people rob them blind it only encourages more of that type of activity. The soda may be a small thing, but it can help set a tone of less tolerance for stealing.

Syrup-gate

But in all actuality, stealing $0.02 worth of syrup is no different to taking 5 sachets of Heinz Ketchup, i.e not really stealing - especially compared to stuff that walks out the Emporium on night. They should physically arrest folks in the MK set the precedent right there and then.
 

CDavid

Well-Known Member
It is practically impossible to completely prevent the loss (shrinkage) of any item; Rather, the objective should be to stop the vast majority of unauthorized refills. If a few dozen people manage to swipe free soda at each resort, it really doesn't amount to anything.

Rather than an expensive, needlessly complex technological solution that doesn't work, simply having CM's monitor the soda refill stations and having the authority to say something to persons refilling unauthorized containers (like old mugs) would likely stop much of the problem. Actually, just posting a sign stating that unless your mug looks like the current design, its use constitutes theft would deter many people (I doubt most WDW guests using old mugs are shoplifters; They just know Disney looks the other way, and the practice is tolerated).
 

englanddg

One Little Spark...
To those who think that the issue is a result of poor guest behavior, you would be correct. This is an effort to control F&B costs. Lets do some math.

Lets start with the components that make up these Bev systems.

1) Water. This is pushed through a carbon based filtration system. The filters may or may not cost Disney anything. Generally, Coke will provide the filter replacement for free, and I have no reason to doubt Disney would be any different. But, if not, the cost for a 20" filter (the big boy, they sell smaller) is around $40. In addition, Ice Machines are generally filtered (any good operator would want to, it keeps your ice machine cleaner and in better condition, therefore operating more efficiently and longer). I have no doubt Disney filters their ice machines as well.

These replacement filters cost closer to $60. These filters should be replaced a minimum of once every 6 months (there actually should be a PSI indicator that the manager can look at to see if the system needs a new filter, but most of the time it's just easier to put it on a regular replacement schedule. So, lets assume Disney, due to volume and the incoming (poor) water quality decides to change out the filtration once a month. That means approx $200 a month for filtration for a 4 unit beverage bar, as you'll find at most of the resorts. This comes out to $200 / $30 = ~$7 a day per 4 unit bar. Divide this by the average number of drinks dispensed per day and you come out with a very...very small number. So, we can safely discount these costs from any equation.

Then there is the cost of the water itself. For giggles, lets just assume filtration + water + system maintenance parts and general labor adds 2 cents of cost per drink (this is very high).

2) Carbonation. I have little doubt that Disney is using something like NUCO2's service, with large 750 lb containers. It just makes operational sense. These units add less than 1 cent per drink of cost...but, again, I will round up to be overly generous, and say it's 1 cent. Also note, not all products require infusion of CO2 (like Poweraid, Hi-C, etc.) But, we'll stick with 1 cent.

3) Syrup. BIB (Bag in Box) syrups generally come in 1 gal, 2.5 gal or 5 gal boxes. With an average ratio of 5 oz of water for every 1 oz of syrup, each 5 gal BIB should use 25 gals of water, and therefore 30 gals of mixed product. The 5 to 1 ratio is an average. Some sodas use a 5.0 ratio, some a 5.5 and some a 4.5 ratio. If you've ever seen the little fronts of a soda machine where the flavor is indicated lifted up, behind them you'll find two little dials. These adjust the ratio, one for syrup, one for water. You use a tool called a Brix cup to calibrate your machine for best taste. If you are curious, it looks like this.

12T07186.jpg

Even when it's fully calibrated, it is very rare you'll use all of the syrup in your BIB. I'd estimate 98% usage. So, at 100% usage, that's 30 gallons of product. 128 oz in a gallon, so 30 gal x 128 = 3840 oz. 3840 * .98 = 3763 oz of finished product per BIB.

BIB box costs vary based on various factors (popularity of the product, pricing agreement with Coke, etc...etc...), but lets assume an average cost of around $60 per BIB (this is a bit steep for Disney, I suspect...but it works).

So, with all this information (granted rather dry info) in place, now we can start to estimate cost.

First, lets consider the Disney Mugs, and lets assume (because I don't have one handy) that they hold 12 oz of soda. So, $60 / 3763 = 1.6 cents per oz. $0.016 * 12 oz = $0.192.

So, 19.2 cents per fill is your cost per mug. But, what about ice? If we assume that the average person fills their cup halfway with ice, this means the average mug will contain between 6 and 8 oz of soda. We'll go with 8, for this estimate. So, the initial fill is really closer to $0.016 * 8 oz = $0.128 per initial fill. Add to this the generous 2 cent overhead costs I described above and round and you end up with 15 cents per fill.

Refills, however, are a different story.

People tend not to add more ice to their refill, and the ice melts. Therefore, the actual amount of product distributed is probably closer to 10oz (again being generous) per refill. Using our tried and true cost formula, this means a per refill cost of $0.016 * 10 = $0.16. Add the 2 cent overhead, and you have 18 cents per refill.

So:
Fills with no ice equal ~22 cents
Fills with fresh ice equal ~15 cents
Fills with melted ice or low ice equal ~18 cents

For giggles then, lets say that every drink distributed costs ~19 cents of product.

Now you add in your paper cost (cost of the mug, cost of straws, cost of lids, etc. Generously estimating numbers (especially to account for straw waste), I'd estimate something like this. Cup is around 15 cents, lid is 1 cent, straw (with waste) costs around 2 cents.

Total cost per drink is around 37 cents.

This, if you are every curious, how you can come up with your drink pricing at a restaurant, as you manage a business like that by percents, not by dollar amounts per se.

Anyhow, now lets get creative with the theft issue. Lets take POFQ, which has around 1000 rooms. Lets assume full occupancy and an average occupancy rate of 3 people. So, 3000 people. Now lets assume that 1/5 of them are stealing an average of 4 sodas a day (one for each meal plus one to sip by the pool). So, 2400 sodas are being stolen a day.

These are all very generous numbers, but that's aside the point.

Lets take the highest cost scenario (no ice). 2400 x $0.22 = $528. That's $528 dollars of loss per day, or $192,720 per annum. And, that's only ONE resort, and the smallest one at that.

Disney has what, around 30,000 rooms? Take that same formula with the same assumptions of theft and occupancy rate, and you end up with a very large number.

30,000 rooms * avg. occupancy of 3 people = 90,000 guests
90,000 guests / 5 = 18,000 people who steal drinks daily
18,000 * 4 drinks per day = 72,000 stolen drinks per day
72,000 * $0.22 cents per drink = $15,840 loss per day

Or, $5.78 million dollars of loss per annum.

Note, in every case I skewed the costs up to benefit Disney's mindset. And, that doesn't get into lost potential revenue (say, people reusing the 20oz paper cups or room cups because they don't have mugs. Add this in and not only do you see millions of dollars of cost, but you also see millions in lost revenue.

Lets say each of those people stealing bought an $18 dollar mug, that makes the model a bit more complex as you'd have to factor in average length of stay, etc., to come up with any potential revenue. However, if we just assume they purchased a paper cup for each meal, the math gets easier. For this, we'll assume that of the 4 drinks stolen per day, 2 are refills.

72,000 drinks stolen per day / 2 = 36,000 * $3 per cup = $108,000 in new revenue a DAY. Or $36,420,000 per annum.

Or, likewise, if we assume that they each buy one day allotments on mugs (again, so I don't have to get into average length of stay, etc...). This means that every drink outside of the first would be "free", so we would divide by 4.

72,000 drinks stolen per day / 4 = 18,000 * $9 per mug = $162,000 in new revenue a DAY. Or $59,130,000 per annum.

Now, think like a person being presented this in a meeting room who has never operated a restaurant day to day. It seems like an excellent business decision, don't you think? Current shrink is costing $5.78 million AND we have the potential to make another $36 to $50 million a year in added revenue?

Someone is getting a BONUS this year! :p

Anyhow, I am deeply against this system, but I wanted to run through some of the numbers and considerations Disney certainly looked at as a matter of information for anyone unaware of the details of F&B costing.

Sorry so long!
 
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englanddg

One Little Spark...
It is practically impossible to completely prevent the loss (shrinkage) of any item; Rather, the objective should be to stop the vast majority of unauthorized refills. If a few dozen people manage to swipe free soda at each resort, it really doesn't amount to anything.

Rather than an expensive, needlessly complex technological solution that doesn't work, simply having CM's monitor the soda refill stations and having the authority to say something to persons refilling unauthorized containers (like old mugs) would likely stop much of the problem. Actually, just posting a sign stating that unless your mug looks like the current design, its use constitutes theft would deter many people (I doubt most WDW guests using old mugs are shoplifters; They just know Disney looks the other way, and the practice is tolerated).
Yep.
 

AgeEight-E

Active Member
The smarter managers have disabled their rapid fill sensors on the soda machines (mostly just at deluxe resorts)

It's not working all that well anywhere except for the value resorts where large groups of teens come in and try to steal ice buckets full of soda. (And they're not quite smart enough to try the hot chocolate.)

The classism in these posts gives me the chills. Lower cost resorts don't necessarily equate to dumber guests and managers.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Syrup-gate

But in all actuality, stealing $0.02 worth of syrup is no different to taking 5 sachets of Heinz Ketchup, i.e not really stealing - especially compared to stuff that walks out the Emporium on night. They should physically arrest folks in the MK set the precedent right there and then.
Taking soda from a fountain without paying is no different than taking a 20oz bottle from the gift shop and walking out without paying. It's stealing. That soda refill may cost Disney $0.02 but they are selling the soda for $3 so what you are stealing is a $3 soda not a $0.02 one.

I absolutely agree they should physically arrest anyone stealing from a gift shop. If they brought in new security, made a few highly public arrests and then floated some "inside information" to people who would spread it around the word would get out that Disney is cracking down big time on stealing.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
To those who think that the issue is a result of poor guest behavior, you would be correct. This is an effort to control F&B costs. Lets do some math.

Lets start with the components that make up these Bev systems.

1) Water. This is pushed through a carbon based filtration system. The filters may or may not cost Disney anything. Generally, Coke will provide the filter replacement for free, and I have no reason to doubt Disney would be any different. But, if not, the cost for a 20" filter (the big boy, they sell smaller) is around $40. In addition, Ice Machines are generally filtered (any good operator would want to, it keeps your ice machine cleaner and in better condition, therefore operating more efficiently and longer). I have no doubt Disney filters their ice machines as well.

These replacement filters cost closer to $60. These filters should be replaced a minimum of once every 6 months (there actually should be a PSI indicator that the manager can look at to see if the system needs a new filter, but most of the time it's just easier to put it on a regular replacement schedule. So, lets assume Disney, due to volume and the incoming (poor) water quality decides to change out the filtration once a month. That means approx $200 a month for filtration for a 4 unit beverage bar, as you'll find at most of the resorts. This comes out to $200 / $30 = ~$7 a day per 4 unit bar. Divide this by the average number of drinks dispensed per day and you come out with a very...very small number. So, we can safely discount these costs from any equation.

Then there is the cost of the water itself. For giggles, lets just assume filtration + water + system maintenance parts and general labor adds 2 cents of cost per drink (this is very high).

2) Carbonation. I have little doubt that Disney is using something like NUCO2's service, with large 750 lb containers. It just makes operational sense. These units add less than 1 cent per drink of cost...but, again, I will round up to be overly generous, and say it's 1 cent. Also note, not all products require infusion of CO2 (like Poweraid, Hi-C, etc.) But, we'll stick with 1 cent.

3) Syrup. BIB (Bag in Box) syrups generally come in 1 gal, 2.5 gal or 5 gal boxes. With an average ratio of 5 oz of water for every 1 oz of syrup, each 5 gal BIB should use 25 lbs of water, and therefore 30 lbs of mixed product. The 5 to 1 ratio is an average. Some sodas use a 5.0 ratio, some a 5.5 and some a 4.5 ratio. If you've ever seen the little fronts of a soda machine where the flavor is indicated lifted up, behind them you'll find two little dials. These adjust the ratio, one for syrup, one for water. You use a tool called a Brix cup to calibrate your machine for best taste. If you are curious, it looks like this.

12T07186.jpg

Even when it's fully calibrated, it is very rare you'll use all of the syrup in your BIB. I'd estimate 98% usage. So, at 100% usage, that's 30 gallons of product. 128 oz in a gallon, so 30 gal x 128 = 3840 oz. 3840 * .98 = 3763 oz of finished product per BIB.

BIB box costs vary based on various factors (popularity of the product, pricing agreement with Coke, etc...etc...), but lets assume an average cost of around $60 per BIB (this is a bit steep for Disney, I suspect...but it works).

So, with all this information (granted rather dry info) in place, now we can start to estimate cost.

First, lets consider the Disney Mugs, and lets assume (because I don't have one handy) that they hold 12 oz of soda. So, $60 / 3763 = 1.6 cents per oz. $0.016 * 12 oz = $0.192.

So, 19.2 cents per fill is your cost per mug. But, what about ice? If we assume that the average person fills their cup halfway with ice, this means the average mug will contain between 6 and 8 oz of soda. We'll go with 8, for this estimate. So, the initial fill is really closer to $0.016 * 8 oz = $0.128 per initial fill. Add to this the generous 2 cent overhead costs I described above and round and you end up with 15 cents per fill.

Refills, however, are a different story.

People tend not to add more ice to their refill, and the ice melts. Therefore, the actual amount of product distributed is probably closer to 10oz (again being generous) per refill. Using our tried and true cost formula, this means a per refill cost of $0.016 * 10 = $0.16. Add the 2 cent overhead, and you have 18 cents per refill.

So:
Fills with no ice equal ~22 cents
Fills with fresh ice equal ~15 cents
Fills with melted ice or low ice equal ~18 cents

For giggles then, lets say that every drink distributed costs ~19 cents of product.

Now you add in your paper cost (cost of the mug, cost of straws, cost of lids, etc. Generously estimating numbers (especially to account for straw waste), I'd estimate something like this. Cup is around 15 cents, lid is 1 cent, straw (with waste) costs around 2 cents.

Total cost per drink is around 37 cents.

This, if you are every curious, how you can come up with your drink pricing at a restaurant, as you manage a business like that by percents, not by dollar amounts per se.

Anyhow, now lets get creative with the theft issue. Lets take POFQ, which has around 1000 rooms. Lets assume full occupancy and an average occupancy rate of 3 people. So, 3000 people. Now lets assume that 1/5 of them are stealing an average of 4 sodas a day (one for each meal plus one to sip by the pool). So, 2400 sodas are being stolen a day.

These are all very generous numbers, but that's aside the point.

Lets take the highest cost scenario (no ice). 2400 x $0.22 = $528. That's $528 dollars of loss per day, or $192,720 per annum. And, that's only ONE resort, and the smallest one at that.

Disney has what, around 30,000 rooms? Take that same formula with the same assumptions of theft and occupancy rate, and you end up with a vary large number.

30,000 rooms * avg. occupancy of 3 people = 90,000 guests
90,000 guests / 5 = 18,000 people who steal drinks daily
18,000 * 4 drinks per day = 72,000 stolen drinks per day
72,000 * $0.22 cents per drink = $15,840 loss per day

Or, $5.78 million dollars of loss per annum.

Note, in every case I skewed the costs up to benefit Disney's mindset. And, that doesn't get into lost potential revenue (say, people reusing the 20oz paper cups or room cups because they don't have mugs. Add this in and not only do you see millions of dollars of cost, but you also see millions in lost revenue.

Lets say each of those people stealing bought an $18 dollar mug, that makes the model a bit more complex as you'd have to factor in average length of stay, etc., to come up with any potential revenue. However, if we just assume they purchased a paper cup for each meal, the math gets easier. For this, we'll assume that of the 4 drinks stolen per day, 2 are refills.

72,000 drinks stolen per day / 2 = 36,000 * $3 per cup = $108,000 in new revenue a DAY. Or $36,420,000 per annum.

Or, likewise, if we assume that they each buy one day allotments on mugs (again, so I don't have to get into average length of stay, etc...). This means that every drink outside of the first would be "free", so we would divide by 4.

72,000 drinks stolen per day / 4 = 18,000 * $9 per mug = $162,000 in new revenue a DAY. Or $59,130,000 per annum.

Now, think like a person being presented this in a meeting room who has never operated a restaurant day to day. It seems like an excellent business decision, don't you think? Current shrink is costing $5.78 million AND we have the potential to make another $36 to $50 million a year in added revenue?

Someone is getting a BONUS this year! :p

Anyhow, I am deeply against this system, but I wanted to run through some of the numbers and considerations Disney certainly looked at as a matter of information for anyone unaware of the details of F&B costing.

Sorry so long!
Great post. I think the concept of lost sales is what people are missing. They focus on the fact that the drinks cost very little, but the lost potential revenue is a much, much larger problem.
 

SirLink

Well-Known Member
Taking soda from a fountain without paying is no different than taking a 20oz bottle from the gift shop and walking out without paying. It's stealing. That soda refill may cost Disney $0.02 but they are selling the soda for $3 so what you are stealing is a $3 soda not a $0.02 one.

I absolutely agree they should physically arrest anyone stealing from a gift shop. If they brought in new security, made a few highly public arrests and then floated some "inside information" to people who would spread it around the word would get out that Disney is cracking down big time on stealing.

Are you talking about refills? Disney should in reality eat the cost, if at Cheesecake Factory you get free refils on cheaper priced Coke, just give free refils. 75% of guests wouldn't keep the paper cups for more than a couple of hours and your giving a value add to customers.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
It's an issue every McDonalds, Burger King, Subway and Taco Bell in the country has found a way to ignore without adding 5-cent RFID chips or hassling guests. Creative accounting is about the only rational explanation.

The situation is nothing alike except both being counter service

1) You don't tend to pass through burger king on your way to and from your bedroom every day
2) Scale
3) Existing design/layout

And many of these places do NOT ignore soda fountain abuse. It tends to depend on your location... because the biggest factor is the environment and demographics.

If Disney just freaking stood up to their customers, such a system would not be necessary in the first place. Same with photo flashes, etc. Every guest has an ID associated with them.. room card or ticket.. and now MDE profiles. Track problem people and punish them. Don't want to give up your 'id'? Fine, we'll escort you off property.

It doesn't take running a prison to get the message across... just change the mentality and expectations that Disney isn't going to let you walk all over them.
 
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