Jefro
Active Member
Sometimes when you are so bad, you can only trend "up".
But the numbers are not good for Florida except compared against...Florida.
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Proof of Vaccination or Negative COVID Test required for theme parks soon?
- Thread starter cmwade77
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But the numbers are not good for Florida except compared against...Florida.
Because Regulations and Mandates rarely, if ever are as effective as making recommendations, explaining the reasons why and letting people decide for themselves. If someone tells someone that they have to do xyz, the first inclination is to tell them to go fly a kite and a lot of people stick with that first inclination. But if you provide a reasonable explanation of why, explain both sides accurately (something that has not been done yet with COVID) and then let them make up their own mind based on all of the information, you end up with a lot more cooperation overall. Yes, there will be the outliers on both sides, but overall that is the way things work.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
The same reasons it’s decreased before in multiple places…
Disney Irish
Premium Member
The Delta variant is more contagious (more like chicken pox or measles) and thus spreads a lot quicker, especially and primarily to the unvaccinated. With that quicker spread though means it'll "burn out" quicker as it'll have less people to infect. So in a place like FL which trails in vaccination it spread a lot quicker which is why you saw an explosion of new cases there since June, but with that means over time a quicker drop off in cases as there becomes less people to infect.
CA has a smaller slower increase due to its population being more vaccinated. You'll see a similar drop off in cases here shortly has well.
Note that FL still has a higher 7-day average of new cases compared to CA, so I wouldn't say they are out-of-the-woods yet.
October82
Well-Known Member
The right way to understand this is in terms of SEIR models, which treat the population as consisting of
1. individuals susceptible to infection (S)
2. individuals who are exposed and infected but non-transmissible (E)
3. individuals who are infective (I)
4. individuals who are immune (R)
All of these are functions of time (or other variables) and (essentially) multiply the basic reproductive number R0. Covid definitely does not exhaust the susceptible population, but the infection rate (as measured by the effective reproductive number, a combination of the above and R0), does change and can turn negative. When it turns negative, we see a "peak" in the case numbers.
Vaccination produces a much larger fraction of the population that are immune than infection (at least a factor of several assuming 100 million infections). This essentially sets a maximum limit on the infection rate, which indeed is why you see rapid spread in unvaccinated populations (for example, Florida and Tennessee). What drives the change to negative transmission rates is primarily changes in behavior and not the number infected. People social distance when cases rise and tend to relax their precautions when cases fall.
The problem with the question you're responding to is that it's predicated on several false assumptions. For example, that there is one state wide infection rate, that Florida and California have identical demographics, and that California has significantly different public health policies than Florida. While the latter was true earlier in the pandemic, there are few remaining health restrictions in either California or Florida.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Thanks for better explaining it. But I think it went over the head of a lot of posters here. Sometimes you got to break it down to be a lot simpler for the audience.
October82
Well-Known Member
The important part is that it is human behavior that drives the "cyclical" pattern and not the number infected or something about the virus itself.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Okay gang, let's send this thread into the big holiday weekend with a data dump, which is definitely not "misinformation" as it is courtesy of the California Department of Public Health.
www.ocregister.com
Hospitalizations continue to decline in OC and SoCal in general, from their most recent peak in mid August.
As for vaccinations, they continue a slow yet steady rise in the six SoCal counties that contain 20 Million people. San Diego County (Go Padres!) and Orange County (Go Angels!) continue to outpace SoCal and California as a whole.
San Diego County = 61% Fully Vaccinated
Orange County = 59% Fully Vaccinated
Ventura County = 59% Fully Vaccinated
Los Angeles County = 57% Fully Vaccinated
Riverside County = 46% Fully Vaccinated
San Bernardino County = 43% Fully Vaccinated
State of California = 56% Fully Vaccinated
As a reminder, Sacramento continues its hands off approach ahead of September 14th. There is no statewide mask mandate in California. Orange County and San Diego County have no mask mandates in place for most public accomodations (except public transit, hospitals, public schools, and a few arts facilities). Disneyland requires masks; Knott's Berry Farm, Legoland and Sea World do not.
www.ocregister.com
Coronavirus: Daily cases down 38% in Orange County, with 414 new cases reported Sept. 3
There have been 8,533 new infections reported in the last 14 days.
www.ocregister.com
Hospitalizations continue to decline in OC and SoCal in general, from their most recent peak in mid August.
As for vaccinations, they continue a slow yet steady rise in the six SoCal counties that contain 20 Million people. San Diego County (Go Padres!) and Orange County (Go Angels!) continue to outpace SoCal and California as a whole.
San Diego County = 61% Fully Vaccinated
Orange County = 59% Fully Vaccinated
Ventura County = 59% Fully Vaccinated
Los Angeles County = 57% Fully Vaccinated
Riverside County = 46% Fully Vaccinated
San Bernardino County = 43% Fully Vaccinated
State of California = 56% Fully Vaccinated
As a reminder, Sacramento continues its hands off approach ahead of September 14th. There is no statewide mask mandate in California. Orange County and San Diego County have no mask mandates in place for most public accomodations (except public transit, hospitals, public schools, and a few arts facilities). Disneyland requires masks; Knott's Berry Farm, Legoland and Sea World do not.
Orange County coronavirus tracker: Cases, vaccines, maps and more
Orange County coronavirus tracker: Cases, vaccines, maps and more The coronavirus pandemic continues to take a toll across Orange County. Here is the latest information available from the county an…
www.ocregister.com
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TP2000
Well-Known Member
You know, I have never had a bad reaction to any vaccine. Not so much as a sore arm.
When I got Shingrix a few years ago my doctor made it sound like I was about to enter a state of near-morbidity; but on both Shingrix shots I felt absolutely fine for days afterward. Flu shots, TDaP boosters, Twinrix shots, Pneumovax and Prevnar, none of them bothered me for a moment! Covid was the exact same way for me, and I found the 15 minute mandatory waiting period to be slightly annoying because of that.
But I'm thrilled that almost all older Americans are now vaccinated. It's the right thing to do. Several friends have already gotten their Covid boosters!
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Dear Prudence
Well-Known Member
I don't mind the idea of the possibility of having to show proof of vaccination, I just hate that I would have to carry my card around and potentially lose it.
Muffinpants
Well-Known Member
Most states are activating a online version and used on an official app. So this would help with having to carry them.I don't mind the idea of the possibility of having to show proof of vaccination, I just hate that I would have to carry my card around and potentially lose it.
FeelsSoGoodToBeBad
Well-Known Member
I would LOVE if IL did this. I'm paranoid I'll lose my card or destroy it somehow. It would be nice to at least be allowed to laminate it. I DO have pics of mine and my kids on my phone, though. So at least there's that...
91JLovesDisney
Well-Known Member
Could not agree with this more - it's fine with me if you get vaccinated, it's fine with me if you don't get vaccinated - completely up to you. Requiring theme parks to require guests to receive a shot to enter feels borderline dystopian
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I left my CDC card in a drawer at home for the summer because it was very awkwardly sized and too big for my wallet (But Good Enough For Government Work), when I decamped down to the family beach house in San Diego County. All summer long no one has asked me for that card to gain access to anything, or asked me to put on a mask in public. San Diego County is like that.
The social circle I'm in here is highly vaccinated. (Actually, when pressed, I don't know anyone who is not vaccinated. I know a few smokers, I know a lot of drinkers, and I even know a bed hopper or two. But the unvaccinated? Heavens, no!)
I'm going back up to Orange County later this week to vote in the Recall Election in person in my home precinct. I originally thought "I should bring that vaccine card back down to La Jolla with me", but now that I just typed out the sentences above and realize that no one in all of San Diego County, much less the village of La Jolla, cares whether I'm vaccinated or not, I think I'll just leave it in the drawer. It's safer there.
And seriously, what idiot bureaucrat decided the paper Covid vaccine card should be sized too big for a man's wallet?
Here's a question for the ladies; does that CDC vaccination card fit in your pocketbook?
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Californian Elitist
Well-Known Member
Would any of you be interested in creating a California vs Texas/Florida thread (some of you can’t help yourselves)? That way we can leave the endless conversation to its own thread.
smooch
Well-Known Member
I have to say I really wish Disney would require proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test to enter the parks. I had to get a negative COVID test even with proof of vaccination to travel to Maui earlier this year, and next weekend I am going to a music festival that requires either proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test in order to get in along with required masks and those two things on top of the festival taking place entirely outdoors has helped ease my mind and feel safe. It's not a hard thing to do at all, you can get a vaccine or a COVID test for free and practically at a moment's notice these days, if you want to go to a large gathering then you should have to take the extremely minor inconvenience of getting vaccinated beforehand or getting a test a few days before in order to make sure you aren't going to endanger yourself and those around you. It isn't unconstitutional, I had to provide proof of vaccinations to go to community college when I started almost 4 years ago and then last semester had to provide proof of my vaccinations to my new school I transferred to. Since I have one class on campus this semester I had to upload my vaccination information or a genuine excuse to not be vaccinated in order to go on campus.
I really think this is the way forward to increase vaccination rates to the level they need to be, require people to prove they're vaccinated to go out to any sort of entertainment. Not gonna say to limit things like a grocery store, but if you wanna go out and see a movie or go to a concert or go to a theme park which is not essential at all then you should have to prove you have done your part as a citizen to keep yourself and those around you safe that way you don't spread sickness to those around you. I'm sure some people here will disagree but I don't care at this point, we're over a year and a half into this pandemic with testing and vaccines widely available for free, there's no excuse.
I really think this is the way forward to increase vaccination rates to the level they need to be, require people to prove they're vaccinated to go out to any sort of entertainment. Not gonna say to limit things like a grocery store, but if you wanna go out and see a movie or go to a concert or go to a theme park which is not essential at all then you should have to prove you have done your part as a citizen to keep yourself and those around you safe that way you don't spread sickness to those around you. I'm sure some people here will disagree but I don't care at this point, we're over a year and a half into this pandemic with testing and vaccines widely available for free, there's no excuse.
No. But Amazon is selling a handy dandy plastic passport AND Covid card holder … just in case one is planning to leave the Country!I left my CDC card in a drawer at home for the summer because it was very awkwardly sized and too big for my wallet (But Good Enough For Government Work), when I decamped down to the family beach house in San Diego County. All summer long no one has asked me for that card to gain access to anything, or asked me to put on a mask in public. San Diego County is like that.
The social circle I'm in here is highly vaccinated. (Actually, when pressed, I don't know anyone who is not vaccinated. I know a few smokers, I know a lot of drinkers, and I even know a bed hopper or two. But the unvaccinated? Heavens, no!)
I'm going back up to Orange County later this week to vote in the Recall Election in person in my home precinct. I originally thought "I should bring that vaccine card back down to La Jolla with me", but now that I just typed out the sentences above and realize that no one in all of San Diego County, much less the village of La Jolla, cares whether I'm vaccinated or not, I think I'll just leave it in the drawer. It's safer there.
And seriously, what idiot bureaucrat decided the paper Covid vaccine card should be sized too big for a man's wallet?
Here's a question for the ladies; does that CDC vaccination card fit in your pocketbook?
On another note…I’d have to disagree with you regarding La Jolla being free and easy on the Covid front. They may not ask for your vaccine card and sure, they seem friendly enough but they love their masks and wear them with pride, even outdoors!! Head to Bird Rock and look around!
Stevek
Well-Known Member
My apologies for derailing it. Thank you to the mods for deleting it.
Californian Elitist
Well-Known Member
I wouldn’t say it’s you, but others who continuously bring it up. In fact, I distinctly remember you asking in another thread to keep the California vs Texas/Florida out because it was irrelevant to the topic at hand. So clearly both of us are sick of it lol.
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