JohnD
Well-Known Member
Don't you know anything? It came ashore as Cat 2 near Mexico Beach. It wasn't major! Huff.
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News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019
- Thread starter monothingie
- Start date
Don't you know anything? It came ashore as Cat 2 near Mexico Beach. It wasn't major! Huff.
Good chance your flight will be delayed or won't happen.
dingdangdang
New Member
Ok well I've changed my Sunday evening and Monday morning ADR's so now I'm all set!!
KBLovedDisney
Well-Known Member
This one isn't starting off like Hugo did, is it? 
Better to be there waiting for you than the shelves empty at Target.
Notes from Neverland
Well-Known Member
Our plans include arriving Friday and leaving on a cruise Monday. Both ideas appear to be in jeopardy.
Indeed. Mike suggested driving, but that would present different issues.
We’ll just have to see what unfolds in the next few days and wait for JetBlue updates.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
I'm saying that the earlier story was pointless. As if to dismiss out of hand the destruction that Dora caused because it was recorded one mph less than a Cat 3 storm. Therefore it isn't "major". Any hurricane is "major" for a city depending on where the city is, building codes, storm surge, wind, etc. and the destruction that results regardless of it's ranking on the Saffir Simpson scale.
Dead2009
Horror Movie Guru
It's also not a competition when it comes to hurricanes, I can guarantee the people who went through Hurricane Andrew arent upset that they didnt feel the full brunt of Katrina or Harvey. That entire exchange was unnecessary, to be honest.
18Z model runs are trending south towards Miami/Fort Lauderdale. NHC may adjust the track south with the 5PM update. At this stage out everything from Miami to the South Carolina border is in play. Models will continue to use the "Windshield wiper" effect back and forth back and forth as Meteorologist Bernie Rayno would say.
A cruise departing Canaveral? You're probably right.
Notes from Neverland
Well-Known Member
Correct. Waiting to hear what they plan to do. Departing Tuesday instead of Monday (changes a 4-night to a 3-night) appears to be a possibility.
As expected the last track is further south. Now hitting the coast at as a strong cat 3/weak cat 4 then diminishing to a cat 1 inland right over WDW.
This will change further south by the 11PM update.
JohnD
Well-Known Member
As expected the last track is further south. Now hitting the coast at as a strong cat 3/weak cat 4 then diminishing to a cat 1 inland right over WDW.
This will change further south by the 11PM update.
Don't like the looks of that. That means it will re-enter the Gulf and possibly strengthen again.
In deference to the incredibly unhelpful and insipid arguments going on here I would tell anybody with concerns to just trust your gut. I'm not from Florida, but as a 50 plus year resident of New Orleans, I've experienced a few storms in my life. The big takeaway for anyone should be that intensity forecasts are not nearly as reliable as tracking forecasts. What that means is the Category 2 storm headed your way tonight could blow up into a 3 or a 4 by morning. Don't put yourself or your family in a position where you come to regret your decisions after it's too late to leave. I understand WDW is considered relatively safe and it may very well be. Just know that after a bad storm you'll be surrounded by a lot of destruction, widespread power loss, closed roads, water, food, and fuel shortages, and just general overall human suffering and misery. Every storm is different and taking them on is always a crap-shoot. If it comes in weaker or turns, everybody just wonders what the big deal was. Rarely will you find someone who chose to ride out a major hurricane speaking about how they wish they could do it all again. Good luck to everyone in FL. Make smart decisions, and everyone stay safe.
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KBLovedDisney
Well-Known Member
I can fix this!
*cough*
All hurricanes cause damage.
Alright, now back to my question. This thing isn't starting off like Hugo from 89 is it? Or is it waaaay too early to tell?
*cough*
All hurricanes cause damage.
Alright, now back to my question. This thing isn't starting off like Hugo from 89 is it? Or is it waaaay too early to tell?
The 12Z GFS ensemble has it doing just that. Entering the Gulf and then judging by the pressure level becoming at cat 5 monster with the warm gulf waters.
Again these models are no where near set in stone and will change.
The 12Z GFS ensemble has it doing just that. Entering the Gulf and then judging by the pressure level becoming at cat 5 monster with the warm gulf waters.
Again these models are no where near set in stone and will change
Oh ********
Beacon Joe
Well-Known Member
Have they started to dismantle the castle, yet?