News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

monothingie

monothingie

Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
Premium Member
Original Poster
Just something to point out with people looking at the models. The GFS model is run 4 times daily 00Z, 6Z, 12Z, and 18Z. ECMWF (euro) model is run twice daily. The NHC track is combination of analysis from different model products including their own data collected to hurricane hunter aircraft. The GFS's (which is freely available and most accessible) most accurate runs are the 00Z and 12Z. The 6Z and 18Z are intermediate runs which don't utilize the same sampling of data as the 00Z and 12Z runs and these tend to be less accurate. Ensemble models are a collection of multiple runs of each model product with the path chosen being what model analysts believe the most likely path will be. They look like spaghetti, hence the term spaghetti models.

Bottom line, the models will look very different 24 hours from now, but everyone on the southeast coast should be on alert.
 
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wdwmagic

wdwmagic

Administrator
Moderator
Premium Member
I just deleted 53 posts of off-topic, or arguing. Please stay on topic and quit the arguing. People are trying to use this thread as a useful resource of information. Anyone who cant do that will be banned from this thread. Apologies to those who are participating in a sensible manner.
 
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wserratore1963

wserratore1963

Active Member
ThatMouse said:
Disney power usually does not go out, because the power lines are buried. There are no room back-up generators at Disney. Edit: Just to add, Magic Bands and cards will not work if the power is out. The room locks are battery operated and have a "memory" so they will let you in even if the wifi is down assuming you've already opened the door once.
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Thanks for supplying such sound logical advice.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Gillyanne said:
Do we know if WDW had a "threshold" of a expected category before opting to close the park? I found a list of the 7 other times the park closed and the lowest hurricanes listed for that (per google so maybe it's the highest they were period) were Cat 3 (the ones in 2004 if I recall) everything else were 4s or 5s.

The last one that damped my vacation was Matthew which google tells me was a 5, it closed the parks at 5pm the evening before expected impact, and stay closed through the next day. That's the one that cancelled our Halloween Party, and I'm curious if this could do the same again (Our tickets are for Monday). The 2016 cancellation (if I recall) gave the option to swap for another party ticket (per capacity availability) OR for a 1 day park hopper. We had opted for the latter as the party was Thurday of a leaving saturday trip, but this year we'd still at least (hopefully) be able to make Friday's party too... I maybe wouldn't be against going Monday if it's still on, but I'm sure the parade, fireworks and shows wouldn't be running in that weather :-/

PS: Here's a pic taken about 30 minutes before park closing from 2016 before Matthew

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I hate to be the voice of common sense here...but if the track holds it doesn’t matter Disney’s “threshold” for closure. There will be a 1-2 day window (8-24 hours) where your holed up in a room.

Again...your choice to avoid it is to not go...other than that, you’re committed.

I think airport Delays could be significant...airlines will be cautious sending planes in, and to get out later in the day or next you have to have an incoming plane first. MCO May have more to deal with than just when the storm moves through.

And do people really fly back on Labor Day to Start school the next? Is that a thing? I suppose.
 
j.piedrafite

j.piedrafite

Premium Member
Do you think that now there's a state of emergency, Disney will issue cancellation waivers? We're flying in on Friday morning and supposed to head out on Tuesday. I'm not worried about getting there, it's getting home.
 
WDW862

WDW862

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Ok...understood.

I thought you might say “the parks”...to which the answer would be: “no...you won’t”
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You can work at the parks during the hurricane, but its 100% volunteer. I knew a guy who was on the clock the 50 hours (didn't work the whole 50 hours, but was paid for it) and was given a hotel room during Irma.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
WDW862 said:
You can work at the parks during the hurricane, but its 100% volunteer. I knew a guy who was on the clock the 50 hours (didn't work the whole 50 hours, but was paid for it) and was given a hotel room during Irma.
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That’s a ride out crew...I ran one once.

It’s actually a hoot. But there’s nobody “reporting for a shift” when you have a direct path storm...which is exactly what this will be if it holds course.

To be fair: the storms that are truly dangerous to central Florida tend to be the storms that take a turn and go there in the last minute...particularly from the gulf side. So that could be the X factor here.
 

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