-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
PICTURE: Casey Splash n Soak Open
- Thread starter Weather_Lady
- Start date
danlb_2000
Premium Member
The fact that phase 2.0 is coming HAS been officially announced, ironically at the announcement of Potter coming to Universal Hollywood, although no details have been officially announced.
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
You are right...there is a lot of idiocy in this thread.
For the record, I was not suggesting a new e-ticket every 6 months. Nor have we in any way approached that number. By my count, our last E-Ticket opened in early 2006. That's 6 years. And nothing big is under construction, so we are looking at 10 years, bare minimum, between E-Tickets opening at Disney's "flagship" resort that also happens to be their ONLY resort (of 5) that goes that long between major additions. It is laughable, pathetic, and unacceptable. Adding insult to the injury is the widespread policy of running what they have in non-show-ready form.
FLE will be gorgeous, but not groundbreaking. It will be what it was intended to be--an increase in capacity and a beautification of a dated Fantasyland. What they are building is also appropriate for the land. The problem (as I see it) is that this is the only thing firmly on the horizon for WDW.
For the record, I was not suggesting a new e-ticket every 6 months. Nor have we in any way approached that number. By my count, our last E-Ticket opened in early 2006. That's 6 years. And nothing big is under construction, so we are looking at 10 years, bare minimum, between E-Tickets opening at Disney's "flagship" resort that also happens to be their ONLY resort (of 5) that goes that long between major additions. It is laughable, pathetic, and unacceptable. Adding insult to the injury is the widespread policy of running what they have in non-show-ready form.
FLE will be gorgeous, but not groundbreaking. It will be what it was intended to be--an increase in capacity and a beautification of a dated Fantasyland. What they are building is also appropriate for the land. The problem (as I see it) is that this is the only thing firmly on the horizon for WDW.
Ok, I did that for another thread. If you compare the year 2009 (last year without Potter at Universal) and 2011 (first year with 12 months of Potter) you get the following comparison for all parks combined at each resort:
WDW 2009: 47,513,000
WDW 2011: 47,449,000
change: -0,14%
Universal Resort 2009: 10,157,000
Universal Resort 2011: 13,718,000
change: +35,06%
Yes, the total numbers are still small. but within two years Universal gained 3.5 million new visitors while WDW's attendance was stagnant. And those 3.5 millions are nearly 1/3 of the annual attendance of Epcot.
Oh, and just because it was mentioned here. Lee said on the actual thread it was discussed that he had heard about it. Whether you decide to believe him or not, that's up to you! 
This is the post: AVATAR land coming to Disney's Animal Kingdom
This is the post: AVATAR land coming to Disney's Animal Kingdom
threeyoda
Active Member
Oh ok, I didn't know that. Thanks for correcting me!
wannab@dis
Well-Known Member
Your numbers are skewed because it hides just how far Universal had dropped in recent years. If you back up to 2004, you'd have a little better perspective.
WDW: 40,500,000
Uni: 13,000,000
So, looks like 15% increase for WDW and 5% for Universal over that time period, or 7,000,000 for WDW and only 700,000 (factor of 10 difference!). Yes, Potter gave them a boost, but basically just back to where they used to be. Let's see how it holds.
bubbles1812
Well-Known Member
It doesn't change the fact that Universal has had a huge attendance increase while Disney, in the last few years has not. You went back and chose a point before Potter (and 2004 isn't exactly recent when looking for looking at current trends), which was what Bolna's post centered on. You twisted everything his post was saying to fit your own view rather than facing facts. (You also strongly remind me of jt...don't take that as a compliment).
In the last two years, which is what matters for his post because that was when Potter came along, Disney's numbers have remained stagnant. And actually fallen ever so slightly in the last few. Straight up % wise (which is what matters, not total attendance numbers...it's all about market share), Uni has seen the much bigger boost. WDW attendance was growing and then somewhere around 2008/2009 it seems hit a snag and attendance has remained flat. That is a significant issue if growth has stalled, especially after you just pointed out, WDW has a 15% increase in the previous years. Stalled growth isn't good...they can only raise prices to make up that difference so much.
wannab@dis
Well-Known Member
I guess you missed my point that Potter simply brought them back to where they used to be. Between 2004 and 2009, their percentages dropped. Yes, Potter has brought growth over the past year, but, unlike WDW, they are basically back to where they started. WDW added another 7,000,000... 10 times UNI's addition over those years. Let's assume with multiday tickets, the average ticket price is $40/day. Now, multiple 47M times $40 and then multiple 13M by $40. All of a sudden, those total attendance numbers matter!
Also, the economy is another factor that's affecting recent years. The Potter addition probably spurred some pent-up spending by fans while the FLE construction may have kept some WDW fans holding off until its completion. Both will be blips in the graphs, but the long term is still unknown. I thought about starting a project a while back to track attendance / revenue at both WDW and Uni over the past decade. But finding all the attendance data and trying to break the $ out of the P&L and filings proved to be a bigger project than I wanted to do and it quickly became more tedious than fun.
bubbles1812
Well-Known Member
I guess you missed my point that Potter simply brought them back to where they used to be. Between 2004 and 2009, their percentages dropped. Yes, Potter has brought growth over the past year, but, unlike WDW, they are basically back to where they started. WDW added another 7,000,000... 10 times UNI's addition over those years. Let's assume with multiday tickets, the average ticket price is $40/day. Now, multiple 47M times $40 and then multiple 13M by $40. All of a sudden, those total attendance numbers matter!
Also, the economy is another factor that's affecting recent years. The Potter addition probably spurred some pent-up spending by fans while the FLE construction may have kept some WDW fans holding off until its completion. Both will be blips in the graphs, but the long term is still unknown. I thought about starting a project a while back to track attendance / revenue at both WDW and Uni over the past decade. But finding all the attendance data and trying to break the $ out of the P&L and filings proved to be a bigger project than I wanted to do and it quickly became more tedious than fun.
Nope. They still don't. They really don't. WDW has greater capacity (see my points again on this with what I wrote to CondorMan earlier) so they are going to accommodate more, have a bigger potential to add just straight total numbers wise. I didn't miss your point that Potter has gotten them back to where they were. But this is all about market share (which Uni has gotten more of) and % increases (when parks have such a difference in capacities, this is the fairest way to compare them). A 35% increase in the last two years is a much more meaningful that a 0% growth (obviously), but it's also that much more meaningful than just raw attendance. And you again went back to a time when WDW was growing and disregarded every point a made...Disney is not really aren't now. Haven't for the last few. None of those extra 7 million came from the last three (even before Potter) to four years. That's not a good thing.
You could also make the same argument about the economy affecting Universal. I'm sure a few more Potter fans were willing to finagle a way to get down there with the crappy economy but it doesn't seem like people were just holding off for NFE...most average guests (of which WDW has a lot more than say DL where they have a much bigger chunk that are local) aren't even fully aware it's being built. It's not exactly like Disney is advertising it currently as coming soon...they instead play the same old same old One Republic commercial.
I will give you that long term is unknown. But as of right now the fact remains that Universal has grown substantially while Disney has remained stagnant.
wannab@dis
Well-Known Member
Sorry, the capacity argument doesn't hold water. Uni Studios + IoA probably has more total capacity than MK, but yet are still 25% lower attendance than just the MK park. Back in 2004, there was a similar contingent of people claiming WDW was falling apart, not adding anything, stagnant, whatever. Same story, similar posters (some even the same) so that point doesn't really stand up either. Claiming Uni is growing in past year is accurate, but probably due to one thing only - Potter. I'd be willing to bet that if they had not built Potter, their numbers would have been negative. WDW is weathering the economic storm and maintaining their numbers during what some would have us to believe are the worse times in the resort's history. While doubtful, there's a chance the Potter investment may have short legs... same is true for FLE! It will be interesting to see the numbers next year. I highly doubt you'll see that 30% increase, may not even see double digit.
Finally, the fact remains that over the past decade, WDW has grown, while Uni remained stagnant. If you ever do any retirement financial planning, you'll probably spend more time studying those 10y trends than the 1y trend.
bubbles1812
Well-Known Member
You can't make that argument combining the total capacity of Uni and IoA...they are two separate parks that you have to pay for individually even if they are right next door to each other. To some people, each park may not be a full day park in it's own right but regardless, they are two separate parks and just comparing them to MK alone doesn't work. Either look at the capacity of each parks entire complex or compare park to park individually. And I was never making the argument that Uni would come close to MK (it can't capacity wise) but I do know it's the number one park in the number one park in the world, and barring a disaster will remain so. That doesn't mean Uni's attendance can't creep up on DHS or even AK in the near future.
And duh...of course it is do to Potter. Without Potter revitalizing Uni, it would have continued to slowly die. That doesn't take away from Universal's growth just because it was due to one main thing. And it's allowing them to do more and more and I'm not just talking about Potter 2.0.
I don't think Potter is going to have short legs...forget which thread I discussed that in, but it's out there. You could argue that Universal has even been more successful then than Disney in "weathering the economic climate" via their growth attendance % wise but also in infrastructure (NFE is nice but it isn't on the same scale). I doubt NFE will bring a substantial increase in attendance but I'm sure it will see a little. Also to note...I'm not claiming that WDW is falling apart at the seems. Its not. I do however think they are risking becoming stale...we will see about Avatar but that is seemingly being scaled back. And NFE, while again nice, isn't pushing any boundaries creativity wise.
And, I don't think it's quite fair to claim Uni has remained stagnant. Again Uni before Potter was dying. That has radically changed in the past two years. It hasn't remained stagnant at all. Trends of the past few years show that WDW growth is slowing while Uni's is rising. A trend of the past full decade doesn't do me any good when radical changes have been made that have changed the entire landscape. Again, you are twisting the facts.
wannab@dis
Well-Known Member
My apologies... you made the point that capacity at WDW was larger so they could accommodate more guests - which sounded like you were combining all the parks at both locations. If you want to go individual parks, all of them probably have similar capacities, but yet neither Uni park gets within 30% of any park at WDW. Any way you try to combine it, capacity does not equal visitors. If so, Epcot would have more guests than MK. The capacity argument is moot.
Now, I'm really confused. First you say, without Potter, Uni would be dying. But, WDW didn't add anything on that magnitude and they are not losing any ground and nowhere near dying. So, apparently the only reason Uni weathered the storm was due to the addition of Potter. That's scary! What if the popularity wains? While FLE may not be as "radical" as Potter, there's a good chance it will also change the last couple of flat years.
I'm not twisting facts, just looking at them from a different perspective. A "noisy" up and down trend is nowhere near as good as a nice trend up over the long term. In the past decade, Uni went up, way down, back up to the starting point. WDW simply went up. But, again the future will tell the story. If the Uni trends continue to post double digit gains (doubtful) and WDW remains flat or goes negative (possible, but doubtful), that will be a different picture.
bubbles1812
Well-Known Member
Uni has much less capacity than MK...a simple google will tell you that. I'm not going to do that for you. Capacity is still a large part of the reason though no, it is not everything when it comes to visitors, but it is still a descent part of why they get more guests.
Again, doubt popularity from Potter wains. But you missed my point..Universal is not only adding a Potter 2.0. They are adding more. Go read the Universal thread. They aren't putting all their chickens in one basket. They have a substantial cash inflow and rather than just sitting on it and paying for mostly the bare minimum (Disney is very prone to this now), they are investing in new infrastructure. Again, not just Potter 2.0. Also, NFE may succeed in changing the flat curve on growth, but I don't see it sustaining growth as well as Potter will for Universal. Especially if the Mine Train does not people's expectations as an E-ticket ride (I don't think it was ever really designed as an E-ticket but it is clearly the crowning jewel of the expansion and many are putting it on a pedastel).
Lastly, I will repeat for you what I said before since you seemed to have missed it. The numbers from before Potter for Universal are a lot less meaningful because it so radically changed the landscape for Universal. It was a massive change. It doesn't matter again, so much what their total attendance numbers are or that they are now back up to some of their peak levels from when they originally opened...again, it's about market share, % increase, ect. And a 35% growth in two years is not stagnation going from the point of radical change (Again, just to make sure you get it through your head..trends before the radical change are relatively moot). I would actually say the same thing for DCA...they made massive massive changes to a park in sore need of it. Their numbers of the previous decade aren't going to be that meaningful going forward because the park is different from before. WDW's trend has simply been this. They grew steadily and now have flat lined over the last about four years. If it were just a one year trend, I wouldn't find it so significant, but it is a four year trend.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
In this discussion I think what the respective owning corporations have to say about their parks also says a good bit. The Walt Disney Company is talking about scaling down spending on their theme parks significantly and nothing points to the contrary for Walt Disney World. Comcast on the other hand surprised many by seeing how their newly acquired parks are an asset that were neglected for years under General Electric's leadership. Yes, this was spurred on by the success of the Wizarding World of Harry Potter, and yes more is being built related to that intellectual property, but it is not the only thing happening at not just Universal Orlando Resort, but all of the Universal theme parks.
I also see that the large discounting that has taken place at Walt Disney World has been rather ignored. Attendance is nice to look at, but tells a very incomplete story. Guest spending at Walt Disney World has been down for years and Disney could not break this. Discounting on admission, food and lodging did not help. Defeat was essentially admitted in regards to raising guest spending, it was a new "norm." The Wizarding World of Harry Potter has shown this to be wrong, because the so many of the people being frugal at Walt Disney World are letting the cash flow for unique and interesting merchandise that is an integrated part of the show, the opposite of Walt Disney World's philosophy. The Wizarding World of Harry Potter is in many ways not just a hit, it is proof that Disney's wisdom is misguided at best and flat out wrong at worst. It has a huge, technologically advanced centerpiece attraction. The shops are too small, do not carry proven high volume items and far too much unique merchandise. There are no character meet and greets. There is no cheap, high volume soda. The whole land ignores what Disney says a contemporary theme park needs to be relevant to modern guests and the response has not been good, it has been phenomenal.
I also see that the large discounting that has taken place at Walt Disney World has been rather ignored. Attendance is nice to look at, but tells a very incomplete story. Guest spending at Walt Disney World has been down for years and Disney could not break this. Discounting on admission, food and lodging did not help. Defeat was essentially admitted in regards to raising guest spending, it was a new "norm." The Wizarding World of Harry Potter has shown this to be wrong, because the so many of the people being frugal at Walt Disney World are letting the cash flow for unique and interesting merchandise that is an integrated part of the show, the opposite of Walt Disney World's philosophy. The Wizarding World of Harry Potter is in many ways not just a hit, it is proof that Disney's wisdom is misguided at best and flat out wrong at worst. It has a huge, technologically advanced centerpiece attraction. The shops are too small, do not carry proven high volume items and far too much unique merchandise. There are no character meet and greets. There is no cheap, high volume soda. The whole land ignores what Disney says a contemporary theme park needs to be relevant to modern guests and the response has not been good, it has been phenomenal.
RSoxNo1
Well-Known Member
Universal has it's largest share of the market it has ever had. Those numbers are as follows:
2011: 20.67%
2004: 20.48%
Following 2004, Disney opened Soarin' (2005) Expedition Everest (2006) and Toy Story Mania (2008). That helped take guests away from Universal, and The Wizarding World of Harry Potter and to a much lesser extent Rip Ride Rock It undid all that.
Investing in E-ticket attractions moves attendance numbers. The two most recent examples of this are Everest (adding 1 million to DAK's attendance) and Forbidden Journey (adding 1.3 million to the previous attendance high at IOA).
ToTBellHop
Well-Known Member
Exactly--because E-Tickets are highly marketable. I don't know what they can market w/ the FLE..."Come enjoy the magic of new trees and waterfalls"? It'll be pretty, no doubt, but I doubt there will be much of a bump in attendance. It'll just make the rest of the MK more bearable crowd-wise (and will be much appreciated for that result). Disney still seems to think (only on the East Coast) that individual attractions are not worth marketing outside of the local area--and yet Universal has successfully marketed WWoHP and I've even seen Cars Land commercials here in Connecticut. TDO seems content to just rest on marketing magic and heavy discounts--which has kept attendance at WDW flat. TDO seems to be waking up to its errors (slowly) though. Despite the nonsense here, if you are a penny pincher and see the park next door raising its attendance by 30% while your numbers are flat, you are concerned and feel foolish (which is why TDA will not repeat these mistakes and there are rumblings that TDO will finally do something in Orlando since the investors surprisingly like fresh, new, hip theme parks even if money must be spent).