News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[MuteSuperstar]

I guess I just don't buy that the average guest (meaning none of us here) has any clue when SW:GE is opening if they even know about it at all, so I wouldn't think that would be a major factor for a slower Fall. I also don't buy all the cheerleading about the economy either for the average person, but that's another forum. And I also do think that Star Wars has reached a certain level of fatigue with the average person, for whatever number of reasons.

 

[MAGICFLOP]

Labor Day ish time was always slow because school start, but there may be many factors at play..
Yeah the economy is booming, but not as much to allow people to swallow a lot of price increases..

Also as crowds increased over the past several years, so did the hassle. Added security checks have increased the annoyance factor, by the time you fight your way into the parking lot, get on the tram, then choose boat/MR, then security, then get thru gate, wow you are almost spent or at least frustrated. (hopefully you have a ticket and don't kneed to rent a stroller)

LOL, now you ready for a CM to ask you about a brief survey..

 

[monothingie]

Food and Wine is especially bad, it's not "normal" theme park markups. If I walk into Cosmic Ray's with $15, I'm going to leave absolutely stuffed. If I walk into Flame Tree BBQ with $15, I'm going to be pretty full with a fairly high-quality meal. If I visit F&W kiosks with $15, I'm going to still be super hungry.

Yeah but you’re not getting chicken and mashed potatoes or a burger and fries at F&W.

You are going to pay more at F&W I don’t think it’s a secret. It’s not about quantity, Yes it’s more expensive, but you are getting TS quality appetizer plates at about QS prices and convenience. Personally I enjoy the variety even though I know full well it’s going to cost me.

 

[erasure fan1]

I guess I just don't buy that the average guest (meaning none of us here) has any clue when SW:GE is opening if they even know about it at all, so I wouldn't think that would be a major factor for a slower Fall. I also don't buy all the cheerleading about the economy either for the average person, but that's another forum. And I also do think that Star Wars has reached a certain level of fatigue with the average person, for whatever number of reasons.

I think the average person does know there is going to be a "star wars land" now if that translates to people not going, it could I believe. You are right on about star wars fatigue. Every movie won't do a billion, just like the MCU.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

The bad is when they start pulling staffing which then affects rides. Example, Soarin' might be a 20 minute wait today with 3 theaters but if they pull staffing back then they might be only running 2 or even 1 theater. Your wait might be near an hour because of that.

They did a similar move at the beginning of this year, crowds surged unexpectedly, and wait times got terrible. I'd hope they don't pull anything as drastic as then.

Again, I know we would never get this data from Disney but I guarantee they keep an average revenue per guest figure. If I was the head of Disney Parks I would be working with my team to configuring who are “ideal guests” are and doing whatever it takes to cater to their every need and desire. If I drive up profit with a 10-15% in reduction in attendance then I’m a hero. No cast member reductions necessary and in fact I would look to add cast members in certain areas with the increase in profits. Disney’s parks are not an “economy of scale” exercise but rather a fight to the highest quality exercise. The millennial generation spends the largest share of their desposible income in “unique experiences.” So that tells me they don’t want a mass produced theme park experience like prior generations but rather more intimate one of a kind attractions.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

Below 85% is not poor. The target is 80%, per an interview Jay Rasulo gave years ago. 85% is considered "full". Above 85% is when you look to start adding capacity through resort expansion. It's near impossible to get that last 15% because of the way different guests' reservations overlap. You end up with random midweek one- and two-day spots that you can't get anyone to book regardless of the discount.

Coming from somebody whose job it was to fill those holes on the daily, occupancy percentage is based on heads in available beds, not on if every single room in the property is occupied. At any given time rooms can be out for preventative or emergency maintenance, or refurbishment. If every available bed was filled to the point where if another guest came in we'd have no where to place them at our resort, we were considered to be 100% sold out, even if there were technically empty but still out of service rooms. And this happened extremely frequently. Nights where I had an unhappy guest who wanted a resort transfer and I would call literally every resort on property and they would have no availability were not uncommon.

In reality no, that's not 100% but if a room is missing a toilet or a bed or is completely stripped bare due to refurbishment you can't exactly include it in your total room count either.

 

[francism]

We went to the parks 3 times this past week, DHS on Wednesday (also had Passholder PlayTime at TSL), MK on Friday, and AK on Sunday. We also visited AKL to eat at the Mara after our trip to AK.

The parks were as quiet as I've seen them in a long time. We did our TSL "preview" which was excellent and allowed us to walk on the rides as fast as we could walk the queues and have no longer than a 1-2 group wait ahead of us for character meet and greets. Then we walked to Jedi Training Academy once the regular guests started filing into TSL and got into the second show of the day (they were still doing signups for the third show when we went back to get ready for the show). The meet and greets for Olaf, Minne, and Mickey were basically walkons as was Star Tours. We also got a reservation at the Sci Fi Dine-In the day before, along with a Slinky Dog FP+.

MK was similarly quiet on Friday. Even though we didn't have the benefit of EMH, we still did very well, likely in part to the MNSSHP keeping people away. We rode BTMRR at Frontierland rope drop, then Splash Mt which had technical issues for about 10 minutes but did start back up again. Ate at Gaston's where the lines were nonexistent and there were plenty of empty tables to choose from. We rode the carousel which was maybe ~30% full and watched Philharmagic with a few dozen people. We used a FP+ for Haunted Mansion but when we got to the split, there was no backup at the standby area. Managed to get a same day FP+ for the Mine Train, various times popped up when I was refreshing, mostly near the start of the party but was able to get some for ~1 PM. Went to Buzz and encountered our longest wait of the day, ~6 minutes and I blame that on the fact that there was a brief downpour that no doubt sent people running towards the indoor rides. by the time we were off Buzz, the rain had stopped and we rode the 7DMT before heading out for the day.

Finally, AK. Arrived around rope drop and easily got on the first parking tram that pulled up. We've usually had to wait for at least the second, if not the third so this was a pleasant surprise. The security area was very well staffed, more than I have seen even on busy days. My niece got her face painted and then we rode the safari and saw most of the animals, including the new baby giraffe. Afterwards, we rode KRR and went up to Rafiki's planet watch to get the photo with Rafiki and do the petting zoo. Stopped in Pandora to use a FP+ for Navi River Journey before heading out to AKL to grab some food at the Mara. The Mara was pretty much empty. I joked that you knew it was a slow day at the Mara because you could actually get ice from the soda machines. The lines to order food were short, most people seemed to walk up and look at the menu before ordering as there was no one behind them (usually you'd have plenty of time in line). The pool area is now closed at AKL so maybe this had something to do with the smaller crowds.

But this past week has definitely felt "quiet" and it's interesting that Disney is worrying about it.

 

[DisAl]

Maybe, just maybe, enough people are finally so fed up with price increases, service decreases, parking fees, getting thrown out of the park early for special events, and so on that it is having an impact on attendance. Disney may have finally found where the tipping point is....

 

[Giraffiki]

Just arriving to the thread, but I think there's a decent portion of guests who aren't attending because of the Irma impact combined with really short park hours at MK due to parties

 

[aladdin2007]

General causes (AFAIK):
-Food and Wine doesn't pack the punch it used to. It takes Epcot's attendance numbers from abysmal to decent.
-Everyone is/was underwhelmed by TSL, GP included. Only some people in corporate on funny gas thought it would have that much pull.
-The whole Star Wars thing. It was pretty inevitable.
-The new "cool" park's new additions being bad
-Halloween at MK screwing up vacation schedules

It really irks me they can't see this beforehand by now (or refuse to to save money), yet all of us on here discussed just that way before it was done,, other examples would be new fantasyland etc etc,,,they continue to make choices blindfolded. Of course the studios is a mess right now and just one giant dead end, great movie ride gone etc, guest satisfaction has to be fairly low.

 

[dennis-in-ct]

Maybe, just maybe, enough people are finally so fed up with price increases, service decreases, parking fees, getting thrown out of the park early for special events, and so on that it is having an impact on attendance. Disney may have finally found where the tipping point is....

Maybe WDW could take a tip from the Tokyo Disney Resort and Paris resort with the seasonal offerings (decorations, parades, etc) available for the regular paying day guests. Give people a reason to revisit.

I also feel Disney could double the prices and people would still show-up.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I forget what the number is, but there's an "optimal" number of attractions for a guest to see in a given day. I think it's either 9 or 11. After that, the marginal satisfaction a guest gets from seeing additional attractions is negligible. In other words, a guest who sees 11 attractions is much happier than a guest who sees 6 attractions. But a guest who sees 15 attractions is not any happier than a guest who sees 11 attractions. So throwing labor at the parks in order to get guests from 11 to 15 isn't worth the cost because it doesn't actually result in the guests getting a "wonderful experience, making them much more likely to return" as you posited.

It’s not optimal satisfaction, but minimal satisfaction. Guests who have 7.5 experiences (which is broader than attractions and includes things like parades and nighttime spectaculars) are at the point where the won’t say they are dissatisfied.

 

[Thelazer]

Other area theme-parks already noticed this trend and started making adjustments last month.

And yes they are also gravely concerned.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yes it’s more expensive, but you are getting TS quality appetizer plates at about QS prices and convenience.

Disagree on the quality. It's DIFFERENT stuff than normal QS, but it's still QS.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Coming from somebody whose job it was to fill those holes on the daily, occupancy percentage is based on heads in available beds, not on if every single room in the property is occupied. At any given time rooms can be out for preventative or emergency maintenance, or refurbishment. If every available bed was filled to the point where if another guest came in we'd have no where to place them at our resort, we were considered to be 100% sold out, even if there were technically empty but still out of service rooms. And this happened extremely frequently. Nights where I had an unhappy guest who wanted a resort transfer and I would call literally every resort on property and they would have no availability were not uncommon.

In reality no, that's not 100% but if a room is missing a toilet or a bed or is completely stripped bare due to refurbishment you can't exactly include it in your total room count either.

That's incorrect, at least in regard to the information published in Disney's quarterly reports. Disney includes total room inventory in the denominator. If 10% of rooms are being refurbished and 100% of the remaining rooms are filled, Disney reports 90% occupancy, not 100%.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Earlier this year Disneyland offered "bring a friend" rates (a la Cedar Fair) to encourage APs to bring more people in. They got 40% off one-day hoppers.

If the parks are truly underperforming, why is Disney still insisting on charging at least $102 + tax to see what's left of Epcot or DHS? You'd think they'd figure out a way to get more people in before downgrading the experience for those who already paid.

Offering free hopper upgrades to those who buy a one [or two]-day MK ticket would be so easy for WDW to do, and be a great value for guests.

 

[monothingie]

Disagree on the quality. It's DIFFERENT stuff than normal QS, but it's still QS.

And that’s your opinion. You may not see any value in it, but others do and enjoy the variety.

 

[MuteSuperstar]

I'm a card-carrying gloom and doomer but even I still think the prices for the offerings at F&W have not quite crossed the rubicon into absurdity, relatively speaking. Yet. They'll get there though, without question.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Bring on the discounts.

After Irma last September, and the projections from NWS of future hurricane seasons... I can understand why too many people wouldn't be in a hurry to book around this time of year, especially way far ahead- as a good WDW vacation requires these days.

Yes. There is always overreaction for a couple of years after a big hurricane; just as there is underreaction after a few quiet seasons.

I know a few people who came back from F&W and were disappointed with what they felt was poor value for the money. These were different folks - not related - not one said they would return. Again, just a few people's opinions, but for what it's worth....

We used to visit most booths, but they have seemed less impressive in the last few years, with dry/overcooked food.

So we’ve gotten more picky about booth selections, and find the special luncheons a much better value and experience. I don’t know how much of that is us “outgrowing” the booths.

Maybe that’s OK.

Will locals using annual passes be allowed to go during the Star Wars opening? Hope not, they will cause the majority of the crowd levels.

Did we pay for our tickets? Hello!

3 of my last 4 vacations have been spent just using points to stay at the resort and NEVER setting foot in a park. And I'm guessing there are more of us than some would care to admit.

And that needn’t bother anyone at WDW.

 

[monothingie]

That's incorrect, at least in regard to the information published in Disney's quarterly reports. Disney includes total room inventory in the denominator. If 10% of rooms are being refurbished and 100% of the remaining rooms are filled, Disney reports 90% occupancy, not 100%.

Calling you out for BS. Please actually look at any of TWDC quarterly filings. There is no such information in there. For accounting perspective assets that are under renovation or construction are treated differently.

This is however partially reflected in the 10-K report where it was noted that the occupancy calculation is based on available room nights . What was noted was that there was a decrease in capacity because of this, but the occupancy calculation was based on the available inventory number. As the previous poster mentioned.