On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[peter11435]

They are already tinkering with the hours correct?

They haven’t yet

 

[PhotoDave219]

It doesn't matter who wins if they can't get the pandemic under control.

That’s the biggest point. I have no idea how to convince people that they need to care about other human beings

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

About the posts that suggest WDW world may be cutting down to being open only five days a week.
I think you would see that in their new park reservation system.

An excellent question...

I could see them doing “wraparound” weeks...especially if the quarantines stay for a long time.

That would be one actually feasible way to limit costs.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

@pheneix - is this you?

 

[GoneViral]

Repeating the same incorrect fact over and over again doesn't make it true, just because you want it to be so. They mentioned Shanghai several times and its contributions to income - not just that "they're open". They did not mention Paris or Tokyo.. So by your logic, those parks are in trouble and Shanghai is doing just fine.

I dig your posts so very much.

 

[GoneViral]

Threads like this remind me of that old mail scam.

A person mails a letter to 8,000 gamblers, claiming to know all the football scores. Half the letters say one team will win, and half say the other. In week two, the "winning" 4,000 letter recipients get another mail saying the same thing. 2,000 of them say one team, and 2,000 say the other.

When the list gets down to 500 after week four, those people get a letter saying, "We can't give the answers away for free. Send us $1,000, and we'll tell you the winners."

Some suckers fall for that, not understanding that it's just math.

So, when someone appears randomly and claims inside knowledge ahead of a known news event, I always laugh, knowing that most of them will vanish as soon as their rumormongering gets disproven.

Disney just got grief from an investor during yesterday's earnings call for HAVING TOO MUCH CAPITAL. You can't miss a prediction more than this.

 

[MichaelaSP]

Also, everyone saw UOR cut August hours today? CM blackout was pulled, they’re allowed back in.

This is Beyond the worst case we imagined.

Disney will survive, but the next few years are going to hurt.

I just checked so as of 5 August at 1323, CMs are blocked out all the way through the end of October. We just had that one week we could go to three out of the four parks. DHS remained blocked. All of this is scary. I do agree that the reservation system is a nightmare. So so broken.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I just checked so as of 5 August at 1323, CMs are blocked out all the way through the end of October. We just had that one week we could go to three out of the four parks. DHS remained blocked. All of this is scary. I do agree that the reservation system is a nightmare. So so broken.

That was for the rest of July. Please check the date of posting.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

when a covid positive person sneezes and his spray gets picked up by that annoying kid with that battery operated mister that blows right in my face, maybe I won’t get infected.

That's a grossly specific scenario and I think I need to take a shower after reading that. Especially considering that could happen easily even in a non-COVID environment.

 

[mwf5555]

So the same guys who have been saying Disney is doomed since 2004 are once again saying just wait and see? Is that what I’m getting from this?

definitely not a source going forward for me.... is there a block feature on here?

 

[mwf5555]

My initial reaction is how mixed the results were. There were stunning highs and stunning lows. We care about Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products (DPEP). DPEP includes the theme parks, cruise ships, and licensing (think toys and clothes) businesses. DPEP was clobbered. It was catastrophic. DPEP made revenues of $26 Billion in 2019. It’s massive. It was The Walt Disney Company’s #1 revenue creating division in 2019. While margins and profitability were still lower than Media Networks, the future looked bright for DPEP. One investor even referred to Disney Parks as “Disney’s Rock of Gibraltar:”

Disney's parks are the 'Rock of Gibraltar' for the brand

Disney delivered more of its magic last quarter. However, Trip Miller at Gullane Capital Partners and Disney shareholder, sees enormous potential for the company to still grow.

www.google.com

Now this massive business has been forced to a halt. 85% YoY reduction in quarterly revenue. $3 Billion in OI losses thanks to COVID. It’s crazy. This is pretty unprecedented. To see a business so massive shutdown so rapidly is stunning. Guys, this quarter’s losses are just mind blowing. DPEP was obliterated. Could any of us imagined this one year ago? Could any of us pictured an 85% YoY collapse? It’s insanity. We may be a little more used to insanity than we were a year ago. But everyone, this was incredible.

Will there be layoffs? Will there be cuts? What happens next?

We need not fear for the company’s immediate future. Disney has accumulated enough cash to survive in perpetuity. But let’s not kid ourselves. Chapek’s #1 priority right now is returning DPEP to profitability. Chapek and Co. have a license to lose money at Direct to Consumer. The same leeway is not granted for DPEP. It HAS to make money- even if only a little bit.

What does that look like in practice? Expect desperate actions and deep cuts to headcount. Layoffs WILL come. It is was remarkably bold to reopen Walt Disney World. The idea there was a bunch of pent-up demand for Orlando was ludicrous. Whether you believe it’s rationale or not, people are scared or not interested in wearing a mask. That’s a reality that Chapek seemed blissfully unaware of. COVID will keep having regional flare ups for the next few months (maybe longer). Welcome to the “new normal.” Projects WILL be reduced in scope or cancelled. The fact that Chapek’s team refused to even mention occupancy is telling. Do you think Chapek wouldn’t be crowing about occupancy if it was strong? The CFO’s dodge was absurd.

Something else that will suffer... Quality. I wrote this in February as I decried the state of the parks:

I could not have foreseen that the crises that Disney would face would come so soon and so destructively. It also would be FAR outside Disney’s control. But it pays to remember... Chapek and his management team are horrific. They don’t understand or like theme parks. They have spent the last two decades butchering Walt Disney World. Walt Disney World is on dangerous footing. Quality and value are the first things that Chapek will happily slash. Guys, Walt Disney World is in danger. While low crowds may feel good right now, expect deep and lasting cuts. The Cast Member Corps will be gutted. Chapek will be relentless.

But what about the other businesses? Solid results all around. Media Networks proved more resilient than I was expecting. People were willing to pay top dollar for ESPN even as content slowed to a trickle. The studios will continue to contract. That could be pretty messy for a while. My inclination is Mulan for $30 won’t fair too well... But I’m open to being proven wrong. Cutting out the theatres means Disney could have pretty much half the gross and still make the same amount of money. If it works it would be liberating. COVID has made everything unpredictable. Mulan will be an exciting experiment! Expect Disney to push it hard.

So much unpredictability! Let’s keep our eyes on the parks. If they do anything to harm our Parks, let’s let them know!

are the layoffs speculation or factual from a reputable source? Salaried/Office&Technical/Parks cast members?

 

[Mouse Trap]

definitely not a source going forward for me.... is there a block feature on here?

Click the user's username under their avatar then click ignore.

 

[mwf5555]

Or click their name then insert head in sand.

elaborate?

 

[DDLand]

are the layoffs speculation or factual from a reputable source? Salaried/Office&Technical/Parks cast members?

Sorry, this is speculation. Just an informed guess ultimately. But after looking at the results, and monitoring WDW’s reopening... I feel pretty confident that headcount reductions at Disney Cruise Line, Walt Disney World, and Disneyland are in order...

 

[Chris767]

I personally don’t know anyone who has been laid off, bur I do have friends who are merchandise managers at WDW that are furloughed indefinitely

 

[James Clifton]

Oh man. I have logged in, written drafts, deleted them, and swore I would never do this. Yet here I am. And I'm ready to start some ****.

The Walt Disney Company is about to experience some of the deepest layoffs I have ever witnessed in my adult life. I would call attention to the 2002 and 2009 layoffs after those respective crises. Those separations from the company were orderly. Often via generous voluntary packages. Hell, to his credit, Al Weiss was militant about never laying off a CM against their will after 9/11. I respect that. He was basically a dumbass otherwise.

In 2009, there was a similar "orderly" exit of excess personnel. However, much of this labor was brought back remarkably fast as Disney's business was in far better shape in 2009.

We also have other, smaller layoffs that hit project teams at WDI. These are bull**** layoffs. Flim Flam. Just some accounting tricks. Almost everyone is brought back.

Well, these days are no more. What you are about to see from WDC will be shocking and it will permanently change their business forever. The bloat is about to be gone. The mediocrity that's failed upward all our lives is about to be purged. A new company is emerging.

And no, Bob Chapek is no hero. But he does recognize the value in taking out the trash.

Now, lets talk about attendance at WDW. It's effing bad. Its Hard Rock Park bad. It's Dubai bad. Its the worst attendance in the history of the resort. Epcot is lucky to hit 2500 a day and usually is only hosting a few hundred at a time. Magic Kingdom is tormentingly under performing. There is simply no demand to fill the park out even to its limited capacity. The other two parks are also in dire straits, but due to their smaller size, there are certain days they can make a go of it. And yet still, the resort business is the iceberg and WDW Parks are the titanic. This will not end well.

The situation is dire. Unsustainable. WDW parks will be dropping to five day weeks soon. They will likely not be alone in this practice.

And that brings me to Bob Iger. Mr. Chairman. Mr. Gotta Put Yoda on His Wife's Dress to Bury Some Search Engine Leads. That guy. It is my pleasure to announce that he will be soon tossed on his ***. In disgrace. His sins, his poor judgement, his poor treatment of subordinates. His malicious temper and outrageous displays of "toxic masculinity" as the kids call it. All this and more is coming out. Good riddance.

As I mentioned in a past post! IGER...should be FIRED! Bout time!

 

[mkt]

The hysteria will be played down if Biden wins. You will see more positive stories in the media.

Doubt it.

It'll calm down when a cohesive national strategy is formed beyond "herd immunity"

 

[marni1971]

They posted an 85% loss in theme park revenue and can’t release movies to theaters, and we’re supposed to pretend everything is okay? Come on, people. I have a bridge I can sell you.

I agree the sky isn’t falling, but very few people suggested that.

This. THIS THIS THIS.

For the kids.

 

[King Panda 77]

We really shouldn't let people under the age of 10 post here. Their brains aren't developed enough to understand simple concepts of differentiation.

Sorry I'll stop posting

 

[hopemax]

The hysteria will be played down if Biden wins. You will see more positive stories in the media.

Unlikely. One side will flip overnight to "why hasn't the Biden administration fixed this already?" The other side will be instituting a 3-6 week national lockdown (length dependent on the severity of your local outbreak come February), and institute actual strict guidelines for being open, and for schools (and the Congressional financial backup, that would come with another lockdown). Both of those positions allow ample opportunities for the hysteria, upon which the media thrives.