People will QUICKLY forget and pent up demand to get the *** out of their houses will rule 2021 and beyond. Disney Parks will be packed again, mark it up. Disney will also get every cent back over time. This is temporary, even if it lasts 18 months.
I think it all depends on a few things:
1. How long the economic downturn lasts and how bad it is. Yeah, people want to go out and do things, but the basics will take priority over a trip to WDW. If people are out of work, and jobs are slow to return, people wont be saving for a trip, they'll be scraping by until they land comfortably again. Layoffs are coming, Americans aren't coming to WDW for a multitude of reasons, but a large one is people are in survivor mode. Not just from the virus but from potential job losses and economic uncertainty.
2. How aggressively TWDC prices themselves. Many are dipping into savings at the moment, they wont have the cash to go at today's prices. The premium customer that Disney wants is generally being conservative with cash right now. With hotels seeing a downturn in business, TWDC will need to reconsider its pricing structure. Hell, the entire hospitality industry is trying to figure that out right now. Business travel is going to be gutted for the foreseeable future. As the backbone of many large hotels business, expect to see some hotels trend consumer rates up to offset the losses, while others re-baseline their business and price aggressively to fill rooms consistently. Contrary to popular belief, your average Marriott isn't super profitable. Expect them evaluate where they can save such as less frequent housekeeping, scrapping planned renovations, keeping furniture longer, removing free shuttles, etc.
3. How much of the experience returns. Disney parks are great, but when you shave off entertainment, meet and greets, nighttime spectaculars, etc., you have a product that isn't as different from something you can receive elsewhere. Many of us absolutely say the quality is still higher and see value, but for many it becomes a lot harder to justify $120+ a day when $60-80 is still a fun experience at a local Kings, Busch, or Six Flags.
4. Travel availability - double edged sword here. If Americans can't travel abroad, they will look closer at US destinations obviously. International travel has been over-hyped in these forums for the contributing factor. Last I heard it was between 15 to 20% of WDWs crowd levels? (insiders please correct me!) While not insignificant, there's no doubt the bulk of guests are domestic. However, air travel is about to be really different. Flight capacity and availability will be finicky while airlines adjust to the loss of business travel. The consulting firm I work for has been in the top 5 customers of every airline for a while because we fly so much. Our clients aren't just expecting us to not travel right now, they are demanding we adjust our MSAs to be remote first, and help them develop virtual workplace strategies. Everyone agrees business travel is forever changed, which will reduce flights, raise costs, etc. Consumers used to be what filled in excess capacity from those of us flying for a living. Airlines were on razor thin margins before, sure they will look to cut costs where possible, but they have a lot of fixed costs that aren't easy to renegotiate like long term fuel price contracts.