On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[Chef Mickey]

Ok Pollyanna. Rose colored glasses look good on all of us but parks are empty and may have to reassess the strategy of keeping open as they currently are, sports are barely happening and those that are are having huge issues...looking at you Miami Marlins and things will pick up again but not until 2021 at the earliest.

I was just at the parks for 10 days. I saw it...plenty of people were there. Again, we are in the early stages. Disney telegraphed that they will be opening with VERY small capacity, like in Shanghai to refine process, gather data, and train staff. You don’t have a pulse on demand because Disney has artificially suppressed it in this early stage and it isn’t known.

Sports are having issues? You literally posted the ONE major issue that hasn’t even stopped other baseball teams from playing and the NBA just reported zero cases in the Disney bubble. Sports are happening bro, there are games on right now. NFL is happening.

Doom and gloom all you want. It’s all going to come back, as usual. Can’t stop American business. Mark it up. It’s happening.

 

[UNCgolf]

Even Universal lags way behind Disney in the food department.

Universal has atrocious food compared to Disney. There are some solid restaurants in CityWalk, but the stuff inside the parks is almost inedible. Had a couple of the worst meals I've ever had anywhere in the Universal parks back in 2017.

 

[UNCgolf]

It comes even sooner than that. Once interstate travel restrictions are rolled back and you can once again come and go with out self quarantining. That was the unexpected fly in the ointment to many reopening plans.

I don't think that's actually stopping people. Those restrictions aren't easily enforced (in most states) and most people (especially among the people willing to travel right now) will just ignore them.

 

[Archie123]

I was just at the parks for 10 days. I saw it...plenty of people were there. Again, we are in the early stages. Disney telegraphed that they will be opening with VERY small capacity, like in Shanghai to refine process, gather data, and train staff. You don’t have a pulse on demand because Disney has artificially suppressed it in this early stage and it isn’t known.

Sports are having issues? You literally posted the ONE major issue that hasn’t even stopped other baseball teams from playing and the NBA just reported zero cases in the Disney bubble. Sports are happening bro, there are games on right now. NFL is happening.

Doom and gloom all you want. It’s all going to come back, as usual. Can’t stop American business. Mark it up. It’s happening.

Based on other reports and updates from actual insiders the parks are empty. And just wait for the NFL season lol. Let’s see the cluster that awaits them. And sorry but you say doom and gloom and I say realism based on facts of what’s really going on across the country. But hey USA!!

 

[Crazydisneyfanluke]

If WDW is Chili’s, what is Sea World?

Taco Bell

 

[monothingie]

I don't think that's actually a big deal in stopping people. Those restrictions aren't easily enforced (in most states) and most people will just ignore them.

I’ll just disagree and leave it at that.

 

[UNCgolf]

I’ll just disagree and leave it at that.

I'm pretty sure most of the states within easy driving distance of WDW don't even have any self quarantine requirements, which is really what I meant. I live in Georgia and there aren't any checkpoints or anything like that when crossing state lines. I know it's different in some states, but they're generally much further away from WDW.

I have no interest in visiting WDW at the moment, though.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Based on other reports and updates from actual insiders the parks are empty. And just wait for the NFL season lol. Let’s see the cluster that awaits them. And sorry but you say doom and gloom and I say realism based on facts of what’s really going on across the country. But hey USA!!

They are not crowded...so what? I just said it was indicated as part of the plan on the last earnings call and I was there 10 days.

I don’t have to be a USA cheerleader. The results of our businesses speak for themselves. US companies are the most resilient, profitable, and have better ideas than any in the world. Disney will be just fine. That’s what we are talking about here.

Your speculation on what will happen with the NFL doesn’t mean anything. They are planning the season...that is huge.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I haven't been to Sea World since the 90s, is the general park upkeep trash there? I know they don't have elaborate Disney quality attractions, but that isn't necessarily correlated with having poor upkeep and cleanliness. Busch Gardens (Tampa and Williamsburg) was always generally very well maintained for example when I visited.

I was there a couple years ago working in the park for a day, I didn’t have too much free time but I did ride the penguin ride (my first trackless experience... yay?) and visit the manatee area. The park seemed to be in good shape and clean and the animal employees are very friendly and passionate about their jobs.

The big negative in atmosphere is all the games / fun zones that just feel six flags. To be fair, even Dollywood has this in some areas but at sea world it just feels extra gross to me.

Several years ago (like 2005 era?) the sea world shows were really top notch. blue horizons, odysea, Clyde & Seymour, and Beleive were really well done.

 

[UNCgolf]

They are not crowded...so what? I just said it was indicated as part of the plan on the last earnings call and I was there 10 days.

The plan was to have lowered capacity, but they were expecting to max out that capacity. They're not even coming close, which is why attendance is a serious problem.

 

[hopemax]

Not to be disagreeable to the pile on here, but...prior to the virus, Parks were the best part of Disney’s business, posting growth nearly every quarter since the recession of 2008-2009. The data is there and irrefutable.

Call me a Pollyanna, but you’re all going to be mistaken if you think this persists much after a vaccine comes, which will happen, possibly by end of 2020.

People will QUICKLY forget and pent up demand to get the *** out of their houses will rule 2021 and beyond. Disney Parks will be packed again, mark it up. Disney will also get every cent back over time. This is temporary, even if it lasts 18 months.

Disney will have an awful quarter, but it’s only been about 4 months of hell with signs of recovery already. Parks are open, sports are coming back, and things will pick up again.

The growth you see post-Great Recession was pretty light. MK had less growth from 2007 to 2011 then they had from 2011 to 2012. So if that took 4 years to break out of a plateau...With the way unemployment is looking, we're going to be talking about a lost decade, between the years with the virus and the years to recover from the virus.

People may want to get out of their houses and travel all they like. But first people need a home and for the first time in a very long time, we are talking about that not being a given in class levels above poverty level. This kind of shock might do some things we didn't foresee, like forcing the rest of the "baby boomers" out of the job market to provide jobs for younger folks, forcing some people back to one income households because people can't afford childcare. The tax implications we know are coming. Stuff that's going to be a drag on discretionary spending.

There will be some winners after all of this, but if they are anything like we are hoping to be, there are going to be a lot of places competing to earn our travel dollars. WDW better be willing to compete on quality and price. We already have had our trips to Tokyo and Hawaii delayed, but if Europe is cheap, any of those could beat out WDW easily.

 

[Chef Mickey]

The plan was to have lowered capacity, but they were expecting to max out that capacity. They're not even coming close, which is why attendance is a serious problem.

Parks have only been open for 2 weeks, at least all 4 parks.

Everything a problem now, but it’s day by day. My bigger picture is demand WILL return for Disney parks. It’s insane to think it won’t because there is no evidence anything but the virus is hindering it and that’s short term.

 

[Chef Mickey]

The growth you see post-Great Recession was pretty light. MK had less growth from 2007 to 2011 then they had from 2011 to 2012. So if that took 4 years to break out of a plateau...With the way unemployment is looking, we're going to be talking about a lost decade, between the years with the virus and the years to recover from the virus.

People may want to get out of their houses and travel all they like. But first people need a home and for the first time in a very long time, we are talking about that not being a given in class levels above poverty level. This kind of shock might do some things we didn't foresee, like forcing the rest of the "baby boomers" out of the job market to provide jobs for younger folks, forcing some people back to one income households because people can't afford childcare. The tax implications we know are coming. Stuff that's going to be a drag on discretionary spending.

There will be some winners after all of this, but if they are anything like we are hoping to be, there are going to be a lot of places competing to earn our travel dollars. WDW better be willing to compete on quality and price. We already have had our trips to Tokyo and Hawaii delayed, but if Europe is cheap, any of those could beat out WDW easily.

I stopped reading at lost decade. You are waaaayyyy too negative and are doing way too much predicting. Park capacity was already too crammed and profits increased every single year.

Arguing the parks weren’t successful enough is just a silly argument, because it’s disproven with the annual reports. I’m too lazy to put it all together for you, but operating margins, operating income, and revenues from parks did extremely well the last 10 years, setting records every year since the last recession.

You are predicting 10 years and the virus has only been a thing for Disney for FOUR MONTHS.

 

[mkt]

Taco Bell

Don't insult Taco Bell like that.

Sea World is Del Taco.

 

[hopemax]

I stopped reading at lost decade. You are waaaayyyy too negative and are doing way too much predicting. Park capacity was already too crammed and profits increased every single year.

Arguing the parks weren’t successful enough is just a silly argument, because it’s disproven with the annual reports. I’m too lazy to put it all together for you, but operating margins, operating income, and revenues from parks did extremely well the last 10 years, setting records every year since the last recession.

You are predicting 10 years and the virus has only been a thing for Disney for FOUR MONTHS.

See you in 10 years.

BTW, A quick Google search turned up this. So it hasn't exactly been sunshine and roses.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/04/1588601423000/Introducing--the-Disney-Park-Indicator/

 

[Chef Mickey]

See you in 10 years.

BTW, A quick Google search turned up this. So it hasn't exactly been sunshine and roses.

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/04/1588601423000/Introducing--the-Disney-Park-Indicator/

View attachment 487665

Yeah, I told you they had record revenue every year since 2009...that chart proves it. It doesn’t mean the revenue growth rate will be a record, but the total revenue has been. So since 2009, it actually has been sunshine and roses.

Do you know how to read the chart? It basically says that in 20 years, only 2 years had negative revenue growth neither of which had anything to do with people not liking Disney or anything in Disney’s control.

The 2 dips were 9/11 and the worst recession since 1930s.

And look what happened afterward.

This chart doesn’t help your “lost decade“ argument at all. It shows a 1 year hiccup followed by a V-shaped recovery and record revenues the following year. So yeah, that will likely happen again.

 

[Tom Morrow]

I've been a member of this forum for almost 20 years now.. (*depressed sigh*)... and while I'm not going to claim to be anyone of importance, I do know that this is a recurring thing on this forum. Every so often, a nuclear bomb of a thread drops and all the alleged insiders come out of the woodwork to spread ultimate doom and gloom, how will WDW bounce back from this? Etc.

I'm not going to deny that things are bad, or that this isn't the greatest challenge Walt Disney World has ever faced. It's just, these threads are always balls to the walls "the worst case scenario is guaranteed!", and then it never happens. The truth is most likely considerably less extreme.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I've been a member of this forum for almost 20 years now.. (*depressed sigh*)... and while I'm not going to claim to be anyone of importance, I do know that this is a recurring thing on this forum. Every so often, a nuclear bomb of a thread drops and all the alleged insiders come out of the woodwork to spread ultimate doom and gloom, how will WDW bounce back from this? Etc.

I'm not going to deny that things are bad, or that this isn't the greatest challenge Walt Disney World has ever faced. It's just, these threads are always balls to the walls "the worst case scenario is guaranteed!", and then it never happens. The truth is most likely considerably less extreme.

It’s always less extreme than the media and by association, the doom and gloomers portray.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Parks have only been open for 2 weeks, at least all 4 parks.

Everything a problem now, but it’s day by day. My bigger picture is demand WILL return for Disney parks. It’s insane to think it won’t because there is no evidence anything but the virus is hindering it and that’s short term.

The summer heat breaks mid-October plus schools have fall break at that time. Perhaps demand will increase at that time.

 

[tirian]

Not sure if you’re using hyperbole but I think there is a lot of talent at WDI it would be a shame to lose. In fact it’s the only department where I’m truly afraid of the effects of layoffs...technical issues aside Rise of the Resistance is widely considered a masterpiece that demonstrates what WDI can accomplish without gratuitous corporate meddling.

Read:

• Diversity committee
• Pink corporate castle
• Cartoons slapped onto things at Epcot
• Mickey’s Runaway Railway through cheap TV Land
• Reduced SWGE attractions, cantina capacity, entertainment, etc.
• Mandate to lock SWGE into a specific sequel trilogy time period

Ditto Pirates in Shanghai. The rides they’re designing for Tokyo also look great. Not saying there aren’t any talentless hacks at imagineering, but at least some of the rank and file imagineers are truly talented and have created ingenious visual effects lately.

The WDI team in Asia is practically a different division versus the ones who work on projects in the States. Once you get assigned to a Tokyo or Shanghai project, you’re there for a long time.