News New Polynesian Resort DVC villas building to open 2024

[CaptainAmerica]

I also believe they would like to continue down the path of resale restrictions.

This is the operative line of your entire post IMO, and it's where I disagree. I think VGF2 absolutely torching RIV in sales has caused them to reconsider resale restrictions, and I wouldn't be shocked if they're eliminated at new resorts and rolled back at Riviera as well.

TL/DR version: I think this resort could stand on it's own if necessary, and as such I believe it will.

It can, but the only reason that Disney would want it to is if they're intent on keeping the resale restrictions, as discussed above.

I just don't think it benefits DVD to do so.

There's financial incentive to sell a shorter contract as "new." It also gives them some flexibility to play with the PVB points charts.

 

[correcaminos]

Sorry all for this long post, so I'll summarize in one line at the end if you don't want to read it all.



I assume new association because they are putting out an entirely new building with additional amenities and on the opposite side of the cash resort from the existing DVC units. I don't read the history the same was as most. Here's how I break it down:

- THV at Saratoga were a conversion and I assume a significant one, but far too remote to be it's own resort and you need substantial transportation to get to a real pool or food.
- Kidani was announced with the AKV project and was just part two. They have a full pool area, a restaurant, sundries shop, and easy access to Jambo, so this could have been it's own resort. However, it was always planned as part of one condo association.
- CCV was a major gut that removed a whole tower of rooms from WL for DVC. It got it's own pool and splash pad rework, all room types, and access to all existing amenities you'd need in a deluxe resort, so that checks all the necessary boxes. Given these factors and the new addition of cabins, I would never expect them to make this part of the existing system. Existing owners might revolt over the idea of the cabin points being able to plug up their rooms. Also given the continued problem with OKW contract dates that was front and center when AKV went on sale, there is no chance they'd do another 2042 date here.
- VGF is doing a fast refurbishment of existing buildings with no new restaurant or major pool refurbishment. As we know there are only studios and they are not even doing any major plumbing work in the buildings for a kitchenette sink. It's also just one building that was changed. So to me this thing couldn't possibly pull it's own weight as a new association or "resort". They made clear when announcing the project that it would be part of the existing VGF offerings also, where that information is left vague at best with the Polynesian DVC expansion.

To me the relevant history is not the time difference between BRV/CCV, though it would have been hard to sell contracts in the $180's with only 25 years on them if you have no direct transportation. So we can see that the relative difference between the new/old areas of DVC at VGF and what is planned at Poly are about the same, but IMO that's where the similarities end. I see a new pool, what seems similar to the outdoor bar/restaurant setup at Riviera, and and entirely new high rise which will have some great views of the castle . This sets up more to me with the CCV example than the VGF example. Now if they refurbed another longhouse and added more room categories without new amenities, then I'd view this differently. Unfortunately for Disney, based on some of the construction info given earlier in this thread, it doesn't seem like they'd easily be able to rework the layouts of the oldest buildings.

I also believe they would like to continue down the path of resale restrictions. This was a calculated change and they could choose to reverse it any day of the week if it was hurting business or operations. Those restrictions can help keep the relative value of resale lower than direct contracts, even though right now it's just Riviera that resale buyers have trouble getting into. My take here is that a new resort with restrictions and direct transportation helps sell more direct contracts across the board. It blunts some of the argument against buying Riviera because of it's potential resale hit, when you can start telling people that moving forward only direct buyers will be able to trade into these places at 7 months.

So again I'm way on the other side of most here, but I just don't see the benefit for Disney to make it the same other than having one less owner's meeting each year and potentially on less spot on the booking site. Combining dues among new/existing contracts for new/different amenities is confusing as would be refurbishment cycles. PVB just got it's "soft goods" refurb, so would they both be getting a full reno 7-8 years from now? I have some other thoughts but this is long winded enough. And I'm not reasonably certain on this, like I was with the cost per point they'd sell the VGF conversion at. Just my two hundred cents.


TL/DR version: I think this resort could stand on it's own if necessary, and as such I believe it will.

I understand your reasoning. I disagree on the THVs. That was substantial for sure. Required leveling and rebuilding. It could have been on its own but they chose to add to SSR.

Your views are valid but I completely disagree about CCV and BRV being nothing about timing and that DVC wants the restrictions in place from RR. If they did We'd be having Big Pine Key DVC and not a VGF expansion.

Again we can agree to disagree. As you see I am prepared either way. No skin off my nose to sell and rebuy.

Considering they move refurbish cycles around that's not a big deal either. For the record too THVs did not get refurbed along with SSR. They can break cycles.

Appreciate your thoughts. I'm not strong leaning tbh but going on rumblings I hear. With new leadership for DVC since RR one never knows...

 

[GoofGoof]

To add, now that I'm catching up with the other posts from the past day or so, I would also prefer that the new building be part of the existing association. That would be a great benefit to me, personally. I just don't think it benefits DVD to do so.

This pretty much summarizes my opinion as well. Since I’m not a current owner at Poly I have no horse in the race and I see why some people who do own would want 1 association. As you said in your previous post it all comes down to whether they want those resale restrictions or not.

 

[pdude81]

This is the operative line of your entire post IMO, and it's where I disagree. I think VGF2 absolutely torching RIV in sales has caused them to reconsider resale restrictions, and I wouldn't be shocked if they're eliminated at new resorts and rolled back at Riviera as well.


It can, but the only reason that Disney would want it to is if they're intent on keeping the resale restrictions, as discussed above.


There's financial incentive to sell a shorter contract as "new." It also gives them some flexibility to play with the PVB points charts.

Well they shut off direct VGF sales for several months after letting people know this was coming. Give it a few months and we'll see how it goes on sales numbers. You could be entirely right on this but I think it's far too soon for a real comparison.

I agree they might be able to monkey around with point charts more with this if added to one association, but I think a new tower with resale restrictions is a useful tool to sell direct points here and at Riviera.

I understand your reasoning. I disagree on the THVs. That was substantial for sure. Required leveling and rebuilding. It could have been on its own but they chose to add to SSR.

Your views are valid but I completely disagree about CCV and BRV being nothing about timing and that DVC wants the restrictions in place from RR. If they did We'd be having Big Pine Key DVC and not a VGF expansion.

Again we can agree to disagree. As you see I am prepared either way. No skin off my nose to sell and rebuy.

Considering they move refurbish cycles around that's not a big deal either. For the record too THVs did not get refurbed along with SSR. They can break cycles.

Appreciate your thoughts. I'm not strong leaning tbh but going on rumblings I hear. With new leadership for DVC since RR one never knows...

Understood. I'm prepared to be wrong on this and not worried regardless.

This pretty much summarizes my opinion as well. Since I’m not a current owner at Poly I have no horse in the race and I see why some people who do own would want 1 association. As you said in your previous post it all comes down to whether they want those resale restrictions or not.

Yeah, we'll see. Hopefully they clarify things sooner than later. There have to have been numerous inquiries to as to the planning on this since they came right out with it when announcing changes at Big Pine Key.

 

[flynnibus]

A new tower isn't going to send Poly from VGF levels to OKW levels. And the vast majority of owners (as opposed to message board owners) have one-week-in-a-studio-in-mid-season contracts, not 2BR-at-Christmas contracts.

I doubt it - the people I randomly meet at the parks or on the ships tend to have far greater DVC budgets then people I see chatting away here. I'm not saying they are the true majority, but the probability of hitting so many whales just doesn't add up. They have to be more common than thought.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think a new tower with resale restrictions is a useful tool to sell direct points here and at Riviera.

I should clarify. You might already understand what I was getting at, but I feel like I could have been clearer.

I'm not saying: Resale restrictions help direct sales but Disney might be deciding they're not worth the administrative headache and dissatisfaction among members that they create.

I am saying: Disney might be realizing that resale restrictions actively hurt direct sales by spooking prospective buyers who are worried about being able to sell restricted RIV points when it's time for them to exit DVC 10, 15, 30 years down the road.

I doubt it - the people I randomly meet at the parks or on the ships tend to have far greater DVC budgets then people I see chatting away here. I'm not saying they are the true majority, but the probability of hitting so many whales just doesn't add up. They have to be more common than thought.

A member with 2,000 points is going to be in the parks and resorts 20x more often than a member with 100 points. Are you encountering lots of whales, or the same whales over and over? (Not literally the same people, but the same category of people.)

 

[correcaminos]

I should clarify. You might already understand what I was getting at, but I feel like I could have been clearer.

I'm not saying: Resale restrictions help direct sales but Disney might be deciding they're not worth the administrative headache and dissatisfaction among members that they create.

I am saying: Disney might be realizing that resale restrictions actively hurt direct sales by spooking prospective buyers who are worried about being able to sell restricted RIV points when it's time for them to exit DVC 10, 15, 30 years down the road.


A member with 2,000 points is going to be in the parks and resorts 20x more often than a member with 100 points. Are you encountering lots of whales, or the same whales over and over? (Not literally the same people, but the same category of people.)

Maybe? I have what I consider a normal amount of points. Not a ton but not a small contract only (using the sub 100 distinction as small contracts like we do with resale talk). I have a friend with less points than me who goes more often. They don’t have a lot less, but just a little. I plan to add more points to what I have to get maybe one more trip in and at that point with my CCV and potential polynesian stuff I will be double my friend. I still won't go as much.

I do agree that DVC resale restrictions on RR are an issue. I have heard that many times. On the big FB group I help moderate it comes up all the time. Some just counter and say they'll never sell. It could wind up being coin toss but Teri Schultz is gone which this was done under her tenure (just googled to double check dates too Teri was only DVC for 3 years mid 2018-2021)

Well they shut off direct VGF sales for several months after letting people know this was coming. Give it a few months and we'll see how it goes on sales numbers. You could be entirely right on this but I think it's far too soon for a real comparison.

I agree they might be able to monkey around with point charts more with this if added to one association, but I think a new tower with resale restrictions is a useful tool to sell direct points here and at Riviera.

Understood. I'm prepared to be wrong on this and not worried regardless.


Yeah, we'll see. Hopefully they clarify things sooner than later. There have to have been numerous inquiries to as to the planning on this since they came right out with it when announcing changes at Big Pine Key.

Yep, people are definitely wondering. I told my guide that I'll add on at PVB or whatever once I know.

I doubt it - the people I randomly meet at the parks or on the ships tend to have far greater DVC budgets then people I see chatting away here. I'm not saying they are the true majority, but the probability of hitting so many whales just doesn't add up. They have to be more common than thought.

I think it varies. The people who bought on during the super low minimums really are a different mentality too than longer 150+ point owners. I've met quite a few with each. Also have seen those 100 point and less owners begin to sell because they used it every 3 years and now cannot.

There are a lot of longer time owners with totally different mentalities. Some newer owners who could finally buy in themselves too (including just age) who are viewing it differently. There are a lot of budget DVC owners though. Both very much exist.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yep, people are definitely wondering. I told my guide that I'll add on at PVB or whatever once I know.

We might know sooner rather than later once Disneyland Tower goes on sale. My assumption:

If DLT has restrictions, whether PVB2 will or not will hinge on new versus existing association.

If DLT doesn't have restrictions, restrictions are toast.

 

[correcaminos]

We might know sooner rather than later once Disneyland Tower goes on sale. My assumption:

If DLT has restrictions, whether PVB2 will or not will hinge on new versus existing association.

If DLT doesn't have restrictions, restrictions are toast.

I would say if DLT has restrictions it will be down to a coin toss. I'm curious about DLT myself. Something I noticed, is that they are leaning very heavily on studios there. Also a note, a lot of west coast owners do it different than WDW.

I might lean to additional association based on VGF and SSR alone along with a change in leadership. But I know I might be dead wrong. I'm actually even thinking of redoing how I do 2023 UY trips in mind. I still have a glut of points to use in ways to keep me from doing more of my PVB uses.

 

[flynnibus]

A member with 2,000 points is going to be in the parks and resorts 20x more often than a member with 100 points. Are you encountering lots of whales, or the same whales over and over? (Not literally the same people, but the same category of people.)

No - I'm encountering people with big budgets. You talk to the 60yr old guy who is funding his room and rooms for 4 of his grown kids and their kids, etc. I don't think I've ever run into the 'I bought 150 points and come every 1.5yr' types in person.. the vast majority I've come across have bought into the whole 'disney is king and this allows me to consume as much as a I can' kind of mindset. Usually people with families, had their kids grow up in this model, and keep expanding as they become grand parents, etc.

The DVC sessions I've done on the boat for instance are largely existing DVC people looking for mawr. It's been a few years so I don't know if the tide has shifted.. but all the high end spots... I'm sure this crowd is loving it.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I would say if DLT has restrictions it will be down to a coin toss. I'm curious about DLT myself. Something I noticed, is that they are leaning very heavily on studios there. Also a note, a lot of west coast owners do it different than WDW.

I might lean to additional association based on VGF and SSR alone along with a change in leadership. But I know I might be dead wrong. I'm actually even thinking of redoing how I do 2023 UY trips in mind. I still have a glut of points to use in ways to keep me from doing more of my PVB uses.

I'm wondering if they're going to see resistance to the 150-point minimum at DLT. 150 is easy to sell at WDW because you can grab a points chart and say "it's a week in a studio at most resorts most times of the year, and you can use banking and borrowing to get a 2BR when Grandma and Grandpa want to tag along." But people don't go to Disneyland for a week, they go to Disneyland for 2 or 3 nights. So now you're trying to upsell people into multiple trips every single year.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

No - I'm encountering people with big budgets. You talk to the 60yr old guy who is funding his room and rooms for 4 of his grown kids and their kids, etc. I don't think I've ever run into the 'I bought 150 points and come every 1.5yr' types in person.. the vast majority I've come across have bought into the whole 'disney is king and this allows me to consume as much as a I can' kind of mindset. Usually people with families, had their kids grow up in this model, and keep expanding as they become grand parents, etc.

The DVC sessions I've done on the boat for instance are largely existing DVC people looking for mawr. It's been a few years so I don't know if the tide has shifted.. but all the high end spots... I'm sure this crowd is loving it.

Yeah I've definitely seen those "old man calls his guide from the Riviera pool deck to add on 300 points on a whim" types.

 

[pdude81]

I'd forgotten about the new tower at Disneyland, even though it's a potential target for me to add on. Since I believe the restrictions are here to stay, I expect them out there as well. As for the 150 point minimum, is that the required buy in for a new member or only for "blue card" benefits? I know they won't price on the site less than 150 but there have been many anecdotal stories over the years of the "minimum buy in" being waived if you had the money and wouldn't budge on your number.

Also we don't know the point charts for these rooms, but a 1BR at VGC is often 40+ points per night. A week in a studio is 150ish in low season, but as some have indicated most don't stay for that long.

What they could do is start giving some priority access to entry or for annual pass reservations to on site hotels like they do with WDW. That could have people popping by a few days per year to get their fill.

 

[GoofGoof]

We might know sooner rather than later once Disneyland Tower goes on sale. My assumption:

If DLT has restrictions, whether PVB2 will or not will hinge on new versus existing association.

If DLT doesn't have restrictions, restrictions are toast.

If restrictions are toast will they (or can they legally) reverse the restriction at RR? Not that I plan to do this, but it could be an arbitrage opportunity to pick up some resale points on the cheap today if a change is imminent and sell them once the change happens and the price spikes. Purely an academic debate. I’m not suggesting anyone go out and do that.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I'd forgotten about the new tower at Disneyland, even though it's a potential target for me to add on. Since I believe the restrictions are here to stay, I expect them out there as well. As for the 150 point minimum, is that the required buy in for a new member or only for "blue card" benefits? I know they won't price on the site less than 150 but there have been many anecdotal stories over the years of the "minimum buy in" being waived if you had the money and wouldn't budge on your number.

Also we don't know the point charts for these rooms, but a 1BR at VGC is often 40+ points per night. A week in a studio is 150ish in low season, but as some have indicated most don't stay for that long.

What they could do is start giving some priority access to entry or for annual pass reservations to on site hotels like they do with WDW. That could have people popping by a few days per year to get their fill.

The 150 point buy in is the required minimum for a new member to get a blue card, and has to be bought all at once on a single contact. Not sure where you would have heard that the minimum buy in was waived as there is absolutely no incentive for DVC to ever do that. They couldn't care less if you buy in or not, so no reason to budge.

 

[correcaminos]

I'm wondering if they're going to see resistance to the 150-point minimum at DLT. 150 is easy to sell at WDW because you can grab a points chart and say "it's a week in a studio at most resorts most times of the year, and you can use banking and borrowing to get a 2BR when Grandma and Grandpa want to tag along." But people don't go to Disneyland for a week, they go to Disneyland for 2 or 3 nights. So now you're trying to upsell people into multiple trips every single year.

I expect it to be similar in points to VGF lake view based on current points. 150 points wouldn't go quite as far. When I go to DLR I do go for 3 or so nights. Locals might want weekends or expensive holiday times. Those will cost more. I think given how VGC is going in resale, that people won't mind having extra to rent if not doing a 1 bedroom.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The 150 point buy in is the required minimum for a new member to get a blue card, and has to be bought all at once on a single contact. Not sure where you would have heard that the minimum buy in was waived as there is absolutely no incentive for DVC to ever do that. They couldn't care less if you buy in or not, so no reason to budge.

I think the question is whether you're allowed to buy a 100 point contract with the understanding that you would not qualify for the blue card, or if they'd refuse to sell you 100 points all together.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I think the question is whether you're allowed to buy a 100 point contract with the understanding that you would not qualify for the blue card, or if they'd refuse to sell you 100 points all together.

At this time, they would refuse to sell you the 100 point contract.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I expect it to be similar in points to VGF lake view based on current points. 150 points wouldn't go quite as far. When I go to DLR I do go for 3 or so nights. Locals might want weekends or expensive holiday times. Those will cost more. I think given how VGC is going in resale, that people won't mind having extra to rent if not doing a 1 bedroom.

I don't know, I can't imagine Disneyland Hotel getting a higher points chart than Grand Cal. I know Disney can do that, I just don't think they will. It would be the first time in DVC history where the points charts would be completely detached from cash prices at the corresponding hotels.

With the exception of Old Key West, points chart inflation is a myth.

 

[correcaminos]

I'd forgotten about the new tower at Disneyland, even though it's a potential target for me to add on. Since I believe the restrictions are here to stay, I expect them out there as well. As for the 150 point minimum, is that the required buy in for a new member or only for "blue card" benefits? I know they won't price on the site less than 150 but there have been many anecdotal stories over the years of the "minimum buy in" being waived if you had the money and wouldn't budge on your number.

Also we don't know the point charts for these rooms, but a 1BR at VGC is often 40+ points per night. A week in a studio is 150ish in low season, but as some have indicated most don't stay for that long.

What they could do is start giving some priority access to entry or for annual pass reservations to on site hotels like they do with WDW. That could have people popping by a few days per year to get their fill.

The minimum of 150 is for direct new owners. It is also minimum required for resale to get blue card status. Based on point charts for the resorts, I expect less than VGC which might put it at the lake view for VGF.

There is no waiving minimum buy in for new. The minimum buy in was just raised last year so what you think you heard from years ago isn’t valid.

If restrictions are toast will they (or can they legally) reverse the restriction at RR? Not that I plan to do this, but it could be an arbitrage opportunity to pick up some resale points on the cheap today if a change is imminent and sell them once the change happens and the price spikes. Purely an academic debate. I’m not suggesting anyone go out and do that.

They could.... or so I recall it being discussed that the wording for Riviera is written so it could be reverse - and conversely more added.

I think the question is whether you're allowed to buy a 100 point contract with the understanding that you would not qualify for the blue card, or if they'd refuse to sell you 100 points all together.

They will only sell sub 150 to current owners. No new could buy in with this. They would have to buy resale.