Sorry all for this long post, so I'll summarize in one line at the end if you don't want to read it all.
Curious why so many assume new associations?
To most of the articles and discussions, I have read, the assumption is expansion on existing based on past histories of VGF, SSR, and AKL. Only BRV/CCV deviated from the past but the start and end dates for each were just too far apart. Maybe I've been around longer but I do know that VGF wasn't the first time they added the associations after opening.
There is also talk that DVD regrets the RR resale restrictions and this is a way out of it. Keep adding on to existing associations until they eventually change their minds about the only one resort if resale.
For those who think buyers don't care about resale restrictions, this was a very hot topic for DVC people when it was announced for RR. People were shy to buy direct because of it. Resale prices for RR are also low because of it. You have to love it to buy resale. But those I know who buy direct are long time owners and do realize they buy and sell as needed.
I will be prepared for anything since this actually really will affect what I do with points. I will guess we'll hear late 2023 or early 2024 when I expect them to announce sales. Likely before then but that would be the latest we will hear.
I assume new association because they are putting out an entirely new building with additional amenities and on the opposite side of the cash resort from the existing DVC units. I don't read the history the same was as most. Here's how I break it down:
- THV at Saratoga were a conversion and I assume a significant one, but far too remote to be it's own resort and you need substantial transportation to get to a real pool or food.
- Kidani was announced with the AKV project and was just part two. They have a full pool area, a restaurant, sundries shop, and easy access to Jambo, so this could have been it's own resort. However, it was always planned as part of one condo association.
- CCV was a major gut that removed a whole tower of rooms from WL for DVC. It got it's own pool and splash pad rework, all room types, and access to all existing amenities you'd need in a deluxe resort, so that checks all the necessary boxes. Given these factors and the new addition of cabins, I would never expect them to make this part of the existing system. Existing owners might revolt over the idea of the cabin points being able to plug up their rooms. Also given the continued problem with OKW contract dates that was front and center when AKV went on sale, there is no chance they'd do another 2042 date here.
- VGF is doing a fast refurbishment of existing buildings with no new restaurant or major pool refurbishment. As we know there are only studios and they are not even doing any major plumbing work in the buildings for a kitchenette sink. It's also just one building that was changed. So to me this thing couldn't possibly pull it's own weight as a new association or "resort". They made clear when announcing the project that it would be part of the existing VGF offerings also, where that information is left vague at best with the Polynesian DVC expansion.
To me the relevant history is not the time difference between BRV/CCV, though it would have been hard to sell contracts in the $180's with only 25 years on them if you have no direct transportation. So we can see that the relative difference between the new/old areas of DVC at VGF and what is planned at Poly are about the same, but IMO that's where the similarities end. I see a new pool, what seems similar to the outdoor bar/restaurant setup at Riviera, and and entirely new high rise which will have some great views of the castle . This sets up more to me with the CCV example than the VGF example. Now if they refurbed another longhouse and added more room categories without new amenities, then I'd view this differently. Unfortunately for Disney, based on some of the construction info given earlier in this thread, it doesn't seem like they'd easily be able to rework the layouts of the oldest buildings.
I also believe they would like to continue down the path of resale restrictions. This was a calculated change and they could choose to reverse it any day of the week if it was hurting business or operations. Those restrictions can help keep the relative value of resale lower than direct contracts, even though right now it's just Riviera that resale buyers have trouble getting into. My take here is that a new resort with restrictions and direct transportation helps sell more direct contracts across the board. It blunts some of the argument against buying Riviera because of it's potential resale hit, when you can start telling people that moving forward only direct buyers will be able to trade into these places at 7 months.
So again I'm way on the other side of most here, but I just don't see the benefit for Disney to make it the same other than having one less owner's meeting each year and potentially on less spot on the booking site. Combining dues among new/existing contracts for new/different amenities is confusing as would be refurbishment cycles. PVB just got it's "soft goods" refurb, so would they both be getting a full reno 7-8 years from now? I have some other thoughts but this is long winded enough. And I'm not reasonably certain on this, like I was with the cost per point they'd sell the VGF conversion at. Just my two hundred cents.
TL/DR version: I think this resort could stand on it's own if necessary, and as such I believe it will.
