Rumor New Monorails Coming Soon?

[montyz81]

I feel like all local transportation in WDW will be handled by buses or gondolas in about 10 years. I feel like openings in the Contemporary will be closed up and a network of gondolas will replace the monorail. Sad, but it seems like Iger and his team will take the cheap route to fix the monorail by getting rid of it. I bet the cost of putting in multiple gondola lines across property will be easier to justify than building 12 new trains.

 

[Rich Brownn]

I feel like all local transportation in WDW will be handled by buses or gondolas in about 10 years. I feel like openings in the Contemporary will be closed up and a network of gondolas will replace the monorail. Sad, but it seems like Iger and his team will take the cheap route to fix the monorail by getting rid of it. I bet the cost of putting in multiple gondola lines across property will be easier to justify than building 12 new trains.

Gondola's would simply not handle the traffic flow on the express lane. Plus it would significantly downgrade the resort's appeal.

 

[janoimagine]

Gondola's would simply not handle the traffic flow on the express lane. Plus it would significantly downgrade the resort's appeal.

Not to mention they heavily feature the monorail in their national TV and print campaigns, and it’s a huge selling point for the prices they charge to be on the resort loop.

 

[NormC]

Gondola's would simply not handle the traffic flow on the express lane. Plus it would significantly downgrade the resort's appeal.

I don't know. What is the hourly capacity of the Express line back and forth between MK and TTC? I bet the gondolas could easily handle it. I agree though that there is a huge appeal to the monorail. It is one of the reasons we bought our DVC points at Bay Lake Tower.

 

[Bender123]

I don't know. What is the hourly capacity of the Express line back and forth between MK and TTC? I bet the gondolas could easily handle it. I agree though that there is a huge appeal to the monorail. It is one of the reasons we bought our DVC points at Bay Lake Tower.

Gondolas are slightly better than the Monorail at peak times and worlds ahead at off peak. People just don't seem to understand the concept of batching in here. Each train carries more than each gondola, but the dispatch rate of the gondola and cycle time is hundreds of times faster, resulting in a greater per hour capacity.

The oft cited "add more trains" argument just doesn't work, because the monorails simply take too long in the station to unload, load and dispatch, which just results in trains stuck at safety blocks. The monorail is fine for where it is, but its not a superior transport option for moving people...you can debate the look/feel/etc...all you want, but the gondola efficiency is just not a debate.

 

[13*Minute*Wait]

The B-52's have a Chrysler that's as big as a whale.

and its about to set sail!

 

[Lensman]

Gondolas are slightly better than the Monorail at peak times and worlds ahead at off peak. People just don't seem to understand the concept of batching in here. Each train carries more than each gondola, but the dispatch rate of the gondola and cycle time is hundreds of times faster, resulting in a greater per hour capacity.

The oft cited "add more trains" argument just doesn't work, because the monorails simply take too long in the station to unload, load and dispatch, which just results in trains stuck at safety blocks. The monorail is fine for where it is, but its not a superior transport option for moving people...you can debate the look/feel/etc...all you want, but the gondola efficiency is just not a debate.

Capacity
Nearly 7,000 guests per direction, per hour. On a typical day, more than 150,000 guests use monorail transportation.

Walt Disney World Monorail System Overview

Walt Disney World Monorail System Overview

www.wdwmagic.com

This is quoted on many sites but I've only found one that listed it as a per-route figure. I'm sure our logistics experts here will chime in with dispatch rates and train capacity (300-372).

At any rate, in previous discussions here it was decided that the monorail had higher throughput/capacity.

 

[Bender123]

Walt Disney World Monorail System Overview

Walt Disney World Monorail System Overview

www.wdwmagic.com

This is quoted on many sites but I've only found one that listed it as a per-route figure. I'm sure our logistics experts here will chime in with dispatch rates and train capacity (300-372).

At any rate, in previous discussions here it was decided that the monorail had higher throughput/capacity.

That is assuming 100 percent people with no room, no strollers and no anything else. You are just incorrect. The actual capacity is about 250-270 per train. The monorail, in any situation will never hit anywhere near those numbers. As for the gondola, they are saying 8 per car, max, and its continuously loading/dispatching without ever stopping.

There is a reason assembly lines exist, and its due to the problems inherent in batching vs continuous systems.

*literally a masters statistician that wrote my thesis on exactly this sort of thing

 

[Bender123]

I will say the monorail has a huge advantage in a situation like the MK...Gondolas do not scale to multiple stops well. They are primarily point to point systems. This is why you see a hub/spoke system at WDW. Midline stops introduce lag and introduce problems of wasted end to end capacity.

They could easily replace an Express beam (not that I want them to), but the resort line would be a logistical nightmare.

 

[jt04]

I will say the monorail has a huge advantage in a situation like the MK...Gondolas do not scale to multiple stops well. They are primarily point to point systems. This is why you see a hub/spoke system at WDW. Midline stops introduce lag and introduce problems of wasted end to end capacity.

They could easily replace an Express beam (not that I want them to), but the resort line would be a logistical nightmare.

I don't think the resort monorails will be replaced. The express and epcot lines being reimagined wouldn't surprise me.

 

[danlb_2000]

That is assuming 100 percent people with no room, no strollers and no anything else. You are just incorrect. The actual capacity is about 250-270 per train. The monorail, in any situation will never hit anywhere near those numbers. As for the gondola, they are saying 8 per car, max, and its continuously loading/dispatching without ever stopping.

There is a reason assembly lines exist, and its due to the problems inherent in batching vs continuous systems.

*literally a masters statistician that wrote my thesis on exactly this sort of thing

the gondola cars have a max of 10, how many they actually load is yet to be seen.

 

[Lensman]

That is assuming 100 percent people with no room, no strollers and no anything else. You are just incorrect. The actual capacity is about 250-270 per train. The monorail, in any situation will never hit anywhere near those numbers. As for the gondola, they are saying 8 per car, max, and its continuously loading/dispatching without ever stopping.

There is a reason assembly lines exist, and its due to the problems inherent in batching vs continuous systems.

*literally a masters statistician that wrote my thesis on exactly this sort of thing

So you're saying the gondola handles strollers and ECVs better?

At any rate, I don't think there's any need to get hot and bothered about it.

I suspect that 5,000 passengers per direction per hour per loop is a more realistic figure for the monorail.

We know that the Skyliner is supposed to handle a max of 8 passengers per cabin and a cabin departs every 10 seconds. So that's 6 per minute x 60 minutes = 360 cabins per hour x 8 pax = 2880. This is great throughput!

Using your low figure of 250 passengers per monorail train, they'd have to dispatch 11.5 trains per hour or one every 5 minutes in order to match the capacity of a single gondola line. What's the actual operational maximum dispatch rate for the monorail?

I hesitate to bring it up since the discussion seems to be upsetting you, but there's been some discussion of whether cast members are going to be able to max out the Skyliner with 8 passengers each trip vs some going out with fewer pax. Search for "sweaty", "smelly", "antisocial", or "xenophobia" in the gondola thread!

 

[NormC]

We know that the Skyliner is supposed to handle a max of 10 passengers per cabin and a cabin departs every 10 seconds. So that's 6 per minute x 60 minutes = 360 cabins per hour x 10 pax = 3600. This is great throughput!

 

[Bender123]

So you're saying the gondola handles strollers and ECVs better?

At any rate, I don't think there's any need to get hot and bothered about it.

I suspect that 5,000 passengers per direction per hour per loop is a more realistic figure for the monorail.

We know that the Skyliner is supposed to handle a max of 8 passengers per cabin and a cabin departs every 10 seconds. So that's 6 per minute x 60 minutes = 360 cabins per hour x 8 pax = 2880. This is great throughput!

Using your low figure of 250 passengers per monorail train, they'd have to dispatch 11.5 trains per hour or one every 5 minutes in order to match the capacity of a single gondola line. What's the actual operational maximum dispatch rate for the monorail?

I hesitate to bring it up since the discussion seems to be upsetting you, but there's been some discussion of whether cast members are going to be able to max out the Skyliner with 8 passengers each trip vs some going out with fewer pax. Search for "sweaty", "smelly", "antisocial", or "xenophobia" in the gondola thread!

It doesn't bother me beyond the purely incorrect assumptions parading as facts. The issue is two fold...

The gondola handles "about" the same load at peak...it technically will handle more, but not a huge amount . The difference first is a single slow down loading or dispatching a monorail will cascade the system. You cant send out a train from MK of one is sitting in the CR loading. You just end up parking the train on the tracks or in MK station, which leaves the GF train sitting in limbo...you get the idea. Cascade failures happen all the time. The innovation in the Gondola is the second load Bull Wheel...this virtually eliminates the possibility of a cascade failure caused by a slow loader.

The other how efficient they are during off peak. Each has excess capacity, but think of it this way...Would you rather wait five+ minutes for a monorail when you want to grab a bite at a resort or walk on and get moving immediately? The gondola will never have a line between open and close. There wont ever be a wait for the vast majority of its operating day.

 

[Lensman]

But I thought Disney said they were only going to put 8 in a cabin?

 

[NormC]

I thought Corless or Hill said they could cram 16 in a cabin if people stood between the seated 10. LOL

Actually they are Omega IV-10 Si 10 person cabins with space for 10 18 inch butts. Why would Disney want to put less in one?

 

[Lensman]

It doesn't bother me beyond the purely incorrect assumptions parading as facts. The issue is two fold...

The gondola handles "about" the same load at peak...it technically will handle more, but not a huge amount . The difference first is a single slow down loading or dispatching a monorail will cascade the system. You cant send out a train from MK of one is sitting in the CR loading. You just end up parking the train on the tracks or in MK station, which leaves the GF train sitting in limbo...you get the idea. Cascade failures happen all the time. The innovation in the Gondola is the second load Bull Wheel...this virtually eliminates the possibility of a cascade failure caused by a slow loader.

The other how efficient they are during off peak. Each has excess capacity, but think of it this way...Would you rather wait five+ minutes for a monorail when you want to grab a bite at a resort or walk on and get moving immediately? The gondola will never have a line between open and close. There wont ever be a wait for the vast majority of its operating day.

I just don't think that replacing the iconic monorail system with gondolas is all that exciting a prospect, just to eliminate cascade failures. Plus they'd probably end up spending half a billion to do it. There are other issues about the routing that I'd love to discuss, but I don't want to derail the thread any more than we've already done.

All in all, I think I prefer keeping the monorail to replacing it with another set of Skyliner systems, though I would like a new trainset.

Speaking of which, I wonder if they placed the order but we're in the 2-4 year backlog period now? Though you'd think we would have heard about it.

 

[Lensman]

I thought Corless said they could cram 16 in a cabin if people stood between the seated 10.

They are Omega IV-10 Si 10 person cabins with space for 10 18 inch butts. Why would Disney want to put less in one?

You said eight.

Eight is correct.

At any rate, in the voluminous Gondola thread, it was reported by insiders that although the cabins are rated by Doppelmayr for 10 passengers, Disney was internally using 8 as their capacity for some reason. I'm currently looking for the origin of that statement, but it is referred to multiple times by people, including yourself!

 

[s8film40]

It doesn't bother me beyond the purely incorrect assumptions parading as facts. The issue is two fold...

The gondola handles "about" the same load at peak...it technically will handle more, but not a huge amount .

I believe this has been discussed many times and the monorail has significantly more capacity. Rather than assumptions as you say since I've had some experience with the monorail’s I’ll break down the numbers and perhaps someone else can share the numbers for the gondala system.

We’ll assume the peak time at park closing and I’ll use conservative number rather than actual capacity.

Express monorail 4 trains running 12 minute cycles with 300 passengers would be 20 trains per hour multiplied by 300 gets us to 6,000 passengers per hour.

Resort monorail running 4 trains at 15 minute cycles with 250 passengers (accounting for the possibility of train coming in partially loaded) so that’s 16 trains per hour multiplied by 250 gets us to 4,000 passengers per hour.

So all total a conservative number for the level of service the monorail’s are providing at peak time at the MK is about 10,000 per hour.

 

[SirWillow]

I think it depends on what you're working with. If you're working with a quality product from the start then, yes, you can just maintain it and keep it going. If you're starting with something that wasn't quality, then it's just a hole you're pouring money into.

Sort of like the difference between properly maintaining a Toyota / Honda vs maintaining a Dodge. With the Toyota/Honda, properly maintained, you can get multiple 100K+ miles out of it and, perhaps, 20 years. With the Dodge, the maintenance costs start at the very beginning (though you do save on the original price) and they're dying 5-7 years out.

While I agree with you on the Toyota, you might be off on the Dodge comparison. Our last Dodge (technically a Chrysler) van had over 350,000 miles on it when we traded it in- and not because there was really anything wrong with it, it was just old and well used. We got another Dodge which is at almost 200k miles and is still running flawlessly.

Now if you'd said Ford, Hyundai, or Kia, you might have had a good point there. lol

Back on topic- just because we aren't hearing public stories about monorail issues doesn't mean they aren't having them, and on a regular basis. I know a couple of people who work on them, and let's just say that it's nowhere near as smooth operating at the moment as some seem to believe. Is it better? Well, as you said, doors haven't fallen off recently. But getting up to zero from a negative 3 still doesn't put you in the positive. The mechanics are doing a great job with the very limited resources they have, but it's not really what's needed.

And the sad observation is that massive overhaul- which is what they need if they want to keep operating these trains- or buying new trains, either one is going to cost $$. And it seems that the Mouse lately is more and more unwilling to spend money to fix, upkeep or improve what they already have, while the pour the funds out on the new additions. I'm not holding out hopes for either one anytime soon, even though they need, and have needed, something done for a while now.