I have been living in CFL for almost my whole life. Last 60mph at MCO was last month May 4 and with events in April as well. Drop it to 50mph and the number increases dramatically. It will be interesting to know what WDW will post as the max wind for operations. My bet is 35mph and no lightning. While overseas I got to ride gondolas in the Alps for skiing (Garmisch Germany), and the high winds there are no fun in my experience. The Alpine systems use twin cables in a side by side (about 2ft apart) and they still sway a lot despite a wide support platform from the twin cables. I don't get motion sick so no biggie to me, but for drunken skiers on the way off the mountain it can be interesting, never saw anyone lose it but there were concerned looks.
Still in CFL lightning is an almost daily event in the summer. I like the Gondolas but they are far from a panacea for WDW transport. The would not handle the nightly post parade/fireworks departure surge at MK if incorporated there. At least not without building a waiting line, especially since that surge is loaded with strollers for the sleeping kids that just had to stay for those events. I do not expect it to be any worse a wait than the ferry or monorail during that surge to be fair. During fair weather and normal crowd loads they will be a relief to the overall guest movement where they are utilized.
To add complexity to this subject. New monorails mean better reliability as well as potnetial for greater capacity due to design changes, consequently increasing max per hour numbers. Others have mentioned why the current Innova design wont work (beam width). This is just a relatively minor engineering issue, not cheap mind you, but from an engineering stand point I imagine there are several ways around the size issue. New trains might also require redesigns of load ques resulting in faster loads and another increase in capacity. Even the openings at the Contemporary could be massaged to accomodate larger trains if needed, not cheap but from a "it can be done" standpoint enough money can find a solution.
Not saying the house of mouse will be likely to spend it. What I know is they wont abandon the monorail without removing it altogether and that wont be cheap and would be a net loss/loss situation. The system is iconic and does make WDW money even if not in a easily calculated figure. In the end they will replace or overhaul the existing systems with new or fully refurbished trains. Long term they really don't have a choice and all of us here know it. Timing is the question. If a contract has been made for new trains I doubt the manufacturers personnel will have the same discipline as WDW and WDWI insiders have on info. IF contracts exist I expect we would know by now. So again timing. I bet delivery after 2025 IMHO with a contract announcement made after the anniversary. They run and most guests don't see what we see, and even the ones that notice don't raise too much of a fuss for WDW right now.
I hope I am wrong and we get them much sooner.
Someone track down design/accountant people at Bombardier and Toyota, or Honda, etc and please find us a contract.