New DAS System at Walt Disney World 2024

[TrainsOfDisney]

We don't know how large the average party size is, but Len said that Disney's numbers showed 75% of people in the LL were DAS users.

Nobody knows Disneys numbers - Disney offered numbers with the old GAC case and some rides were very high - like midway mania.

Naturally a family ride that is very accessible is going to have a larger number of GAC and DAS numbers.

 

[pdude81]

Nobody knows Disneys numbers - Disney offered numbers with the old GAC case and some rides were very high - like midway mania.

Naturally a family ride that is very accessible is going to have a larger number of GAC and DAS numbers.

I note that if Disney's numbers about DAS abuse are to be believed, 3 out of 4 guests in the Lightning Lane are not paying for it. Which means all the revenue Disney's got over these last few years is coming from 1 in 4 guests.

So if Disney can nudge 1 of those 3 into paying for Genie+, they will double their revenue.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I didn’t realize Len was claiming to know Disneys numbers…. If he knows Disneys numbers why is he watching and keeping count at LL entrances and guessing who is DAS and not?

 

[LittleBuford]

I didn’t realize Len was claiming to know Disneys numbers…. If he knows Disneys numbers why is he watching and keeping count at LL entrances and guessing who is DAS and not?

That is not what he’s doing:

Happy to help. Here's the thread with the numbers we counted back in September. I was told on Tuesday afternoon by someone who actually knows, "You're in the ballpark. I wouldn't have done it that way." (I may have said something about their coffee budget being larger than my company in response.)

If you read that and think there's no possible way that 45% of guests at Space Mountain were using DAS and 40% of guests at Peter Pan, let me provide more data:

• In this 2020 lawsuit filed against Disney in the US District Court in Orlando, the court noted that these data collected by Disney about Guest Assistance Card (GAC) use were both unchallenged by the plantiffs and convincing to the court (emphasis mine):
  
  In a two-week study conducted by Disney's Industrial Engineering team in April 2013, the team found that GAC pass usage at five of the most popular attractions at Disney (the "GAC Study") was much higher than the percentage of guests in the park who held a GAC pass.
  
  At that time, approximately 3.3% of guests at Disney used a GAC pass, yet the percentage of guests on the most popular rides who had a GAC pass and entered through the FastPass line was significantly higher than 3.3%.
  
  The GAC Study showed that 11% of riders on Space Mountain, 13% of riders on Splash Mountain, and 30% on Toy Story Mania used a GAC pass to access the ride.
  
  Disney's industrial engineers concluded that the small portion of the guest population who held GAC pass was consuming a substantial portion of the ride capacity.
  
  For example, guests with a GAC pass were riding Toy Story Mania an average of ten times more than guests who did not have a GAC pass.
  
  Cite: A.L. v. Walt Disney Parks & Resorts US, Inc., 469 F. Supp. 3d 1280, 1294 (M.D. Fla. 2020). The quote above is on the right-hand side of page 9.
  
  
• So 3.3% of the people in the park were using 30% of Toy Story's ride capacity.
  
  
• Disney said on Tuesday that use of the system has tripled in the last 5 years. (Second cite here.)

Okay, so if back in 2013, 3.3% of guests were using 30% of ride capacity at a popular ride, and use has tripled since then, you'd think roughly 33% to 90% of riders on popular rides were using DAS to access the ride.

The numbers we estimated were in the lower end of that range.

The top end of that range is too high, but it's closer to right than wrong. If you said 50-75% of Lightning Lane use at popular attractions was DAS, I would absolutely believe that.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Isn't it something like a 10:1 merge now, unless nobody is in the LL (which is rare)? If LL was only 75% of capacity that would average a 3:1 merge.

Now you may not be using DAS to power through the parks, but some are. I think they wanted to make this as convenient as possible for people who needed help, but once the cheat codes got out they had to patch the game.

I’m sure it varies greatly by ride, by time of day, and by park, I’d agree that some rides likely are 90% ILL but other rides still don’t have ILL so they’d be near 0%, toss in VQs and it muddies the water even more. It would be pure speculation to guess an overall number but I wouldn’t be surprised if even less than 75% of rides were the result of ILL though.

The most rides I’ve ever done in a day was using touring plans back in 2013 with FP (+ I think) and no DAS, 27 rides at MK, I was exhausted at the end of the day but it sure was fun, I miss those days. I think I’d struggle to get anywhere near that even with DAS now, and that’s if my GF could physically keep up, which she can’t… unfortunately attendance is up about 20% since then while ride capacity has stayed roughly the same, no line control scheme or cracking down on DAS abuse will ever compensate for that.

 

[Chi84]

I suspect Disney is thinking that a large majority of (not all) physical disabilities will be accommodated by mobility devices or a return to line system. If the accommodation proves to be legally sufficient but not satisfactory to those who previously used DAS, Genie + will be available.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m sure it varies greatly by ride, by time of day, and by park, I’d agree that some rides likely are 90% ILL but other rides still don’t have ILL so they’d be near 0%, toss in VQs and it muddies the water even more. It would be pure speculation to guess an overall number but I wouldn’t be surprised if even less than 75% of rides were the result of ILL though.

The most rides I’ve ever done in a day was using touring plans back in 2013 with FP (+ I think) and no DAS, 27 rides at MK, I was exhausted at the end of the day but it sure was fun, I miss those days. I think I’d struggle to get anywhere near that even with DAS now, and that’s if my GF could physically keep up, which she can’t… unfortunately attendance is up about 20% since then while ride capacity has stayed roughly the same, no line control scheme or cracking down on DAS abuse will ever compensate for that.

We should also note the inherent failure of the line system that genie/LL inherited from fastpass+

Everyone loves fastpass plus now…but we are glossing at just how bad it was before the shutdown. The rate on “newer” rides was alluded to being 20:1…which resulted in rather short standby lines taking forever. Word started to get out on that too. It was basically “you’ll waste your day if you don’t have fastpass”…and due to lack of numbers…there wasn’t close to enough fastpasses.

The bobs in their wisdom decided that “we’ll just make them play for fastpass…that will fix the problem”. But it was and still is a numbers problem and the pay system is almost universally detested. Again…word is out.

The first thing an engineer is taught after a problem occurs is to plan how to fix the actual problem/damage. It seems simple but they have not and appear to never be willing to follow step 1/2…

What is the rumor mill geeked about now? A RESKIN of collapsing dinoland…
Hell…they already demoed a ride there and never replaced it!! That’s not gonna fix any of the real problem. Shell game

 

[Indy_UK]

We are going to Disneyland is August. How far ahead can I do the DAS call?

 

[Unbanshee]

We are going to Disneyland is August. How far ahead can I do the DAS call?

"You may have a pre-arrival conversation as soon as 30 days in advance of a park visit"

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/guest-services/disability-access-service/

 

[Splash4eva]

No one in this thread can answer those specific questions. Like it or not, have to wait until people start reporting their actual experience with new policy.

I think the issue is they have not explained how the “new policy” is going to work & that is the biggest problem.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

We are going to Disneyland is August. How far ahead can I do the DAS call?

July.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

I think the issue is they have not explained how the “new policy” is going to work & that is the biggest problem.

They shouldn’t. They should be moving to an individualized accommodation system where they don’t publicize how easy it is to get a free line-skip system. To do otherwise encourages systemic abuse, which they have learned again and again. Even if they’re ultimately going to end up giving DAS to the vast majority of those who qualified previously, they definitely shouldn’t make it seem that way in their public pronouncements.

 

[Splash4eva]

They shouldn’t. They should be moving to an individualized accommodation system where they don’t publicize how easy it is to get a free line-skip system. To do otherwise encourages systemic abuse, which they have learned again and again.

They literally gave anyone who wants to cheat the system a blueprint of it…. How is explaining how the return to line system will work is encouraging an abuse of the system. Maybe im missing something

 

[Ayla]

"You may have a pre-arrival conversation as soon as 30 days in advance of a park visit"

https://disneyland.disney.go.com/guest-services/disability-access-service/

From previous reports, not from the UK (at least at WDW).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They literally gave anyone who wants to cheat the system a blueprint of it…. How is explaining how the return to line system will work is encouraging an abuse of the system. Maybe im missing something

Because how to game the system/avoid the fees becomes commonplace info in our digital world…unfortunately

 

[Weather_Lady]

Isn't it something like a 10:1 merge now, unless nobody is in the LL (which is rare)? If LL was only 75% of capacity that would average a 3:1 merge.

Now you may not be using DAS to power through the parks, but some are. I think they wanted to make this as convenient as possible for people who needed help, but once the cheat codes got out they had to patch the game.

Agreed.

We were stunned the first time we did extra evening hours at EPCOT (when DAS guests would have been the only ones using lightning lanes, since G+ windows ended at park closing.) Even though the standby line looked incredibly short, we waited some 30 minutes for Frozen, while an endless stream of groups of teenagers (with just a couple of younger families and no older adults at all) coursed through the lightning lane and walked on, and the standby line inched forward at a snail's pace. I'd guess that the number of DAS users who breezed by us was triple - and probably even more - the number of people actually standing in the standby line, and every one of them was let onto the ride immediately.

It was definitely an eye-opening illustration of the significant number and impact of DAS users and their companions on lightning lane usage and standby wait times -- especially considering we were only seeing a subset of DAS users who had the stamina to be touring EPCOT after 10pm.

 

[Dranth]

What I liked about the FP system was you had to physically be there… you couldn’t reserve from your hotel room. That meant as long as you arrived in the park before like 11 or noon, you could still get a FP for a popular ride. It wasn’t a gamble and who can use their iPhone app the best.

FP favors one particular type of guest though and that 11 to noon was not sustainable. On busy days I saw rides gone by 9am. Sure, early in the life of FP you could still get stuff as late as 4 or 5 but each year that time crept lower as attendance continued to rise. Every additional person coming in using FP was reducing how long they were available forcing more people to go early which caused them to run out earlier. It was a self-sustaining cycle.

From 2012 when FP+ was first introduced to the last full year before the pandemic the Magic Kingdom saw a 20% increase in park goers and it was going to hit the point that unless you were there first thing in the morning you got nothing but most certainly not the most popular rides if they had still been on FP.

Also, G+ isn't much of a gamble. SDD might be the only ride that regularly disappears quickly and even with that I regularly get slots waking up at 8 or 9 and just grabbing one for late in the day.

Now if we are talking VQ rides then sure, those are a measure of your phone and finger speed.

I didn’t realize Len was claiming to know Disneys numbers…. If he knows Disneys numbers why is he watching and keeping count at LL entrances and guessing who is DAS and not?

He estimated the numbers based on data he and his team collected combined with public information that was available and statements from Disney. A conversation(s) with Disney people who would know more or less verified his numbers. If I remember correctly, Len was even a bit on the low side with his estimates.

 

[lentesta]

I didn’t realize Len was claiming to know Disneys numbers…. If he knows Disneys numbers why is he watching and keeping count at LL entrances and guessing who is DAS and not?

We're trying a different approach to modeling actual wait times the first hour the park is open.

The two techniques we've tried already:

• Machine learning through gradient boosted trees
• Monte Carlo simulation

Now we're trying essentially classical queuing theory - measuring interarrival times minute by minute. That involves counting how many people are getting in each line, each minute, for various crowd levels, and extrapolating from there.

As part of that, we have to count the number of entries into the standby and LL lines, since LL guests get priorty.

From that, we've built models of each attraction using FlexSim. And then we glue the models together.

 

[lentesta]

He estimated the numbers based on data he and his team collected combined with public information that was available and statements from Disney. A conversation(s) with Disney people who would know more or less verified his numbers. If I remember correctly, Len was even a bit on the low side with his estimates.

This is pretty much it. We had some numbers from Disney's lawsuit testimony and public comments. We added our own data, which fit into that range really well. And then we heard we were a bit low for some popular rides that we hadn't yet counted.

 

[Dranth]

To counter your “abuse” point on though, If you contact Disney and say what accommodation can you make for me, this is my situation, and they offer DAS, I fail to see how thats abuse. Do you need all day every park LL? Maybe not but if they come back and say this is the only thing we offer not sure that’s on you. If you are calling in and claiming you have some hidden problem and you don’t, f you, but if you need accommodation I personally think that is ok.

I think we agree here. I don't think it is abuse for someone to use the system the way it is setup to be used. I am talking about the people who go online and read up what to say to get DAS for their perfectly abled family to skip waiting in long lines for free.

As a separate issue, Disney was also over accommodating on disabilities that may not require a DAS like system which made the whole thing worse. I don't blame guests so much on that as Disney was the one that allowed those but it was a problem and the new system is attempting to address that as well as the actual abuse.

I don’t get the vitriol on both sides of this who blame DAS for all the ills of line waits or those who won’t be able to go to Disney without DAS without knowing what the new system will be for them.

I get the frustration from everyone.

For non-DAS users DAS uses the majority of all LL access so it is one of the primary contributors for standby lines that don't move. The high number of people in a DAS party also impacts the waits in LL lines causing people who legit can't do that parks without to wait longer than they should as well as everyone who paid extra money for the G+ service.

On the other hand, those that needed DAS who now may not qualify are in the dark and have no idea how they will be able to take another trip. I am sure it feels like they are losing access to a place that means a ton to them and brings them a lot of joy.

I personally feel that Disney will find a way to make it work, they are just saying it won't be DAS for all but that is easy for me to say as it doesn't impact me.