My guess is it will depend on the resort in question and how well or poorly it's weathered. I don't think they'll offer extended contracts. But some resorts - especially OKW and SSR - they might "start from scratch" totally renovate and re-theme before reselling. The resorts that are a section of other Deluxe resorts, they might opt to wait until the entire hotel needs a refurb. At which point they might turn the entire resort into DVC.
I think you're substantially correct. If you look at the old Disney Village Resort that became part of the Disney Institute and then ultimately got bulldozed and the land turned over to become the Saratoga Springs Resort, it seems likely that at least OKW and maybe SSR will be torn down and something rebuilt in their place.[/quote]
Feedback from current customers seems to indicate that convenient non-bus transportation to the park or adjacency is important, so I'd guess that they wouldn't rebuild the low-rise, low-density buildings that OKW or even SSR have, but they'd build towers like we see at Riviera. That could change if self-driving person public transit becomes mainstream, as that would also eliminate the substantial waiting at the bus stops that you see at OKW and SSR today.
As for people whose contracts have expired in those resorts, DVC will probably offer them some kind of discount to buy back in, a little better than what they might offer the general public. It might be significantly better if people are willing to buy before the refurb/rebuild begins because then DVC is using less of its own money on construction. But for people who bought when rates were anywhere under $100/point, how deep a discount would it have to be before the sticker shock didn't give them a heart attack? I remember paying 13K for my first 150 points at Saratoga. Seems like at the rate prices are increasing, we'll be talking $400 a point by the time my deed expires and quite frankly I'll be 84. I think I'd rather give that money to my kids, hopefully I'll be around to make that call and they don't poison my tea for the insurance money to go to buying back into DVC.
LOL. I don't think you'll have many of the people who actually bought at less than $100 a point alive when the contracts expire. At least half of us will be dead and the rest will remember the $60 a point DVC with the same historical fondness that we remember paying $200 for an annual pass. Like you said, the kids will have to make their own decision and probably it'll be the grandkids that will have to decide whether they want to continue taking the great-grandkids. Wow.
OKW '42 = 24 years remaining.
SS '54 = 36 years remaining.
100 - ((24 years/ 36 years) * 100) = 33% more.
What am I missing?
We're supposed to quote percentage increase with the original number in the denominator so 36/24 = 1.5 -> 50%. But the OKW contract extension was to '57 so I was calculating 39/24 = 1.62 -> 62%. BTW, AKV goes to '57 so you can use that as a proxy. But you can find extended OKW contracts at the resale sites.
Where are you getting this from?!?! It's actually worth MORE in the future, no? You are paying 2018 prices for a vacation in 2050.
My inlaw's $8K DVC investment in the late 90's is peanuts compared to what a week in a DVC resort costs today.
Economics says that you normally would pay less now for something that you receive in the future than you would pay now for delivery today. The price you'd pay today for something in the future is known as it's discounted present value.
As you note, this discounted present value methodology only needs to be accompanied by an inflation estimate.
An alternative pricing model for future delivery is the arbitrage pricing model which prices future delivery by using current prices and a "cost of carry" of holding/storing that item for future delivery.
One would normally not use the previous astronomical inflation rate for Disney rooms to adjust future room stay value, btw, but rather a more reasonable number that was closer to the actual general inflation rate. If you use 6% room inflation over general inflation, you'll end up with some ridiculous projection like a hotel room stay at WDW being the price of a new car per night.
I still stand by and endorse my original statement.
BVC, 24 years remaining @ $140/pt
--vs--
SS, 36 years remaining @ $100/pt
That's fine, as long as one believes that 36 = 39, that 36 is 33% more than 24, and that you'd value a room stay 24 years in the future the same as a room stay this year. As I said, my estimate is that the 15-year OKW contract extension is worth $25 a point using my assumptions, but that the market only values it at $6-$9 a point.
I honestly have no clue how you can defend the statement that BVC is a more intelligent choice from a financial standpoint.
I'm not defending that statement at all. As I said in my previous post, I'm just trying to provide a different viewpoint to your statement that if you buy a 24 year contract, "you don't value your money". The bottom line is that if you buy a 39 year contract, you'd better be prepared to never stay at BCV or have to use one of the "tricks" to get it.
We may be talking about two different things. When I say resale, I mean resale via Disney, such as buying at AKV. They do offer contracts at other resorts, but you won't get the full 50 years. If you buy resale through a third party, you won't get 50 years either. I was just reading another thread where it states the minimum add on is 75 points, not 25. We're looking at 200 points or so and want the full 50 years plus any perks and discounts. I totally understand not to buy in for perks or discounts because they're subject to change, but the reality is that there will always be some kind of perk/discount for DVC members. Have they changed over the years, sure...but there will never be a time where there is absolutely no perks for DVC members.
Normally, when people say "DVC resale" they mean points purchased through the secondary market and not direct through Disney.
