News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Storm should be through the area by Tuesday. And if there's heavy damage, nobody's flying in there anyway.
Yo!

I know...I’m teasing you.

But not about encouraging going to a hurricane zone

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Remember that Andrew also took off like a rocket...it wasn’t that it just was more primitive...Mother Nature pushed the throttle

 

[larryz]

Storm should be through the area by Tuesday. And if there's heavy damage, nobody's flying in there anyway.
Yo!

Through the area by Tuesday? Not based on the current prediction...

 

[worldfanatic]

I think we're going to know a whole lot more in about 24 hours.
I'm all for somebody canceling if a storm is coming in for sure.
But I don't think we're quite there yet.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Through the area by Tuesday? Not based on the current prediction...
View attachment 403453

Right now NOAA thinks it could hang up ON FLORIDA. Maybe 5 days to push through

That makes it the worst scenario possible for Disney and tourism.

A week of rain that makes doing anything a non-starter

 

[worldfanatic]

Through the area by Tuesday? Not based on the current prediction...
View attachment 403453

That's true. It's slowed a bit.
But that could be good.
Allow it more time to spin North before the coast.

 

[donsullivan]

This. This was exactly one of the possible models being discussed on TWC earlier that sparked my positive "gut feeling" of this being more merciful than Irma and other Fla direct hits. But sadly when I said it, it caused a lynch mobbing.

They're still holding onto that possibility, even though saying danger is increasing throughout the southeast this weekend. We're far better off in forecast accuracy than we were 30 years ago, but there is still so much uncertainty surrounding these storms.

Having actually lived through multiple hurricanes passing thru Central Florida over the last 15+ years as an Orlando resident some advice for those trying to maneuver around the facts of this situation to justify a cause or debating whether they should or should not travel.

I don't care what path any weather service tells you the storm is going to take at this point- everything is an educated guess based on various models and it will absolutely keep changing until it gets here. Back in 2004, Charlie was supposed to head up the west coast of Florida and Orlando would only get a glancing blow according to all the models. Then at around 11AM it took a sudden and unexpected right turn and came on shore at Punta Gorde and headed right for Orlando. We got absolutely hammered by a storm that 12 hours earlier was only supposed to be a glancing blow with some rain. The damage throughout the city was insane. And then 2 more hurricanes hit us in Central Florida in the following weeks.

When a major storm like this is approaching and you're trying to decide on travel you need to consider a lot more variables than just the hours the airport is closed. As the storm approaches the airlines will cancel all inbound flights to Orlando because they do not want any planes on the ground at the airport when the storm arrives. Then, when the airport opens up again it takes close to a day for them to get flights back moving and up to full normal operations. This results in 2-4 days of backed up passengers looking to get on a plane out of here. If you have been on a plane in recent years you know they do not typically have a whole lot of empty seats. If you take the thousand of stranded passengers and try to slot them into those empty seats it can take a week plus to unwind things and get back to normal transit. You will not have the option to just push your flight out a few days; there will not be available seats.

There are likely to be massive coastal evacuations heading inland and north beginning late tomorrow or early Saturday. This will put an astonishing amount of traffic on roads like 95 and the turnpike.

No matter what report you've read about some storm that wasn't as bad as was predicted, there are dozens that were just as bad or worse than was predicted. I get that people are worried about their vacations but for all of us who call Florida home it is mandatory that we assume the worst possible scenario, be prepared for it and if it is that bad we're ready. If it isn't we have lots of water and we go back to our lives.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And the euro model (the one that’s fairly accurate) has it going the entire length of Florida...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Having actually lived through multiple hurricanes passing thru Central Florida over the last 15+ years as an Orlando resident some advice for those trying to maneuver around the facts of this situation to justify a cause or debating whether they should or should not travel.

I don't care what path any weather service tells you the storm is going to take at this point- everything is an educated guess based on various models and it will absolutely keep changing until it gets here. Back in 2004, Charlie was supposed to head up the west coast of Florida and Orlando would only get a glancing blow according to all the models. Then at around 11AM it took a sudden and unexpected right turn and came on shore at Punta Gorde and headed right for Orlando. We got absolutely hammered by a storm that 12 hours earlier was only supposed to be a glancing blow with some rain. The damage throughout the city was insane. And then 2 more hurricanes hit us in Central Florida in the following weeks.

When a major storm like this is approaching and you're trying to decide on travel you need to consider a lot more variables than just the hours the airport is closed. As the storm approaches the airlines will cancel all inbound flights to Orlando because they do not want any planes on the ground at the airport when the storm arrives. Then, when the airport opens up again it takes close to a day for them to get flights back moving and up to full normal operations. This results in 2-4 days of backed up passengers looking to get on a plane out of here. If you have been on a plane in recent years you know they do not typically have a whole lot of empty seats. If you take the thousand of stranded passengers and try to slot them into those empty seats it can take a week plus to unwind things and get back to normal transit. You will not have the option to just push your flight out a few days; there will not be available seats.

There are likely to be massive coastal evacuations heading inland and north beginning late tomorrow or early Saturday. This will put an astonishing amount of traffic on roads like 95 and the turnpike.

No matter what report you've read about some storm that wasn't as bad as was predicted, there are dozens that were just as bad or worse than was predicted. I get that people are worried about their vacations but for all of us who call Florida home it is mandatory that we assume the worst possible scenario, be prepared for it and if it is that bad we're ready. If it isn't we have lots of water and we go back to our lives.

So what you’re saying is: you don’t mess with it??

100% agree...and you give completely accurate advise.

I lived in central Florida and trained/ran some wdw hurricane crew ops.
It’s not worth the risk.

 

[Allyp]

Having actually lived through multiple hurricanes passing thru Central Florida over the last 15+ years as an Orlando resident some advice for those trying to maneuver around the facts of this situation to justify a cause or debating whether they should or should not travel.

I don't care what path any weather service tells you the storm is going to take at this point- everything is an educated guess based on various models and it will absolutely keep changing until it gets here. Back in 2004, Charlie was supposed to head up the west coast of Florida and Orlando would only get a glancing blow according to all the models. Then at around 11AM it took a sudden and unexpected right turn and came on shore at Punta Gorde and headed right for Orlando. We got absolutely hammered by a storm that 12 hours earlier was only supposed to be a glancing blow with some rain. The damage throughout the city was insane. And then 2 more hurricanes hit us in Central Florida in the following weeks.

When a major storm like this is approaching and you're trying to decide on travel you need to consider a lot more variables than just the hours the airport is closed. As the storm approaches the airlines will cancel all inbound flights to Orlando because they do not want any planes on the ground at the airport when the storm arrives. Then, when the airport opens up again it takes close to a day for them to get flights back moving and up to full normal operations. This results in 2-4 days of backed up passengers looking to get on a plane out of here. If you have been on a plane in recent years you know they do not typically have a whole lot of empty seats. If you take the thousand of stranded passengers and try to slot them into those empty seats it can take a week plus to unwind things and get back to normal transit. You will not have the option to just push your flight out a few days; there will not be available seats.

There are likely to be massive coastal evacuations heading inland and north beginning late tomorrow or early Saturday. This will put an astonishing amount of traffic on roads like 95 and the turnpike.

No matter what report you've read about some storm that wasn't as bad as was predicted, there are dozens that were just as bad or worse than was predicted. I get that people are worried about their vacations but for all of us who call Florida home it is mandatory that we assume the worst possible scenario, be prepared for it and if it is that bad we're ready. If it isn't we have lots of water and we go back to our lives.

Being a local here for the past 10yrs and who evacuated for Irma, everything you said is spot on.

 

[worldfanatic]

And the euro model (the one that’s fairly accurate) has it going the entire length of Florida...

The Euro center plot has it going through length of Florida.
Plenty of it's tracks currently have the center staying off the coast.
Plenty of possibilities still.
Again, we'll know a lot more tomorrow night.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The Euro center plot has it going through length of Florida.
Plenty of it's tracks currently have the center staying off the coast.
Plenty of possibilities still.
Again, we'll know a lot more tomorrow night.View attachment 403457

Ok...is there a reason why you seem to be encouraging people to take risks?

Even if someone reschedules for next week and the storm sputters, next week will actually still come.

I guarantee it

 

[tribbleorlfl]

That's a way to play it
But after looking forward to the trip for so long, how would they feel if the storm did move south or north, and they didn't really need to cancel or reschedule. That would be brutal.
If it was me, I'd wait a bit longer.

Orlando currently has a 76% probability of TS winds on Tuesday. While Dorian could surprise everyone and take a u-turn out into the Atlantic, it's doubtful. Even with a northern or southern shift, we definitely will be impacted with winds and rain to the point I see no feasible way MCO will be open Tuesday.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[EricsBiscuit]

What worries me most is that it looks so slow. Irma moved through pretty quickly.

 

[Winnie55]

I so appreciate all of the responses! We are going to give it one more day before making a decision. It helps to be able to discuss with people who have empathy for the situation - at work people look at me like I am insane to not have cancelled already. “Just go next month,” like it’s a trip to the beach!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I so appreciate all of the responses! We are going to give it one more day before making a decision. It helps to be able to discuss with people who have empathy for the situation - at work people look at me like I am insane to not have cancelled already. “Just go next month,” like it’s a trip to the beach!

I understand your dilemma...it’s tough to plan and be disappointed.

But think of it this way: isn’t angst gonna eat up a good part of your fun?

Good luck to you

 

[worldfanatic]

Ok...is there a reason why you seem to be encouraging people to take risks?

Even if someone reschedules for next week and the storm sputters, next week will actually still come.

I guarantee it

Probably because before Hurricane Irma, on a very similar WDWMagic thread , many people berated me and several others for not cancelling our vacations.
I was ready to, and certainly would have if I needed to.
But I waited, and had one of the best vacations I've ever had.
This is a Walt Disney World Site.
We talk about the storm as it's related to Walt Disney World.
It's very frustrating for people who have vacations there planned. And I don't think people should be bullied into canceling unless they really have thought it through and want to do that.

 

[worldfanatic]

"Bullied" wasn't the right word.
"Pressured" works better.

 

[larryz]

The Euro center plot has it going through length of Florida.
Plenty of it's tracks currently have the center staying off the coast.
Plenty of possibilities still.
Again, we'll know a lot more tomorrow night.View attachment 403457

 

[Allyp]

Probably because before Hurricane Irma, on a very similar WDWMagic thread , many people berated me and several others for not cancelling our vacations.
I was ready to, and certainly would have if I needed to.
But I waited, and had one of the best vacations I've ever had.
This is a Walt Disney World Site.
We talk about the storm as it's related to Walt Disney World.
It's very frustrating for people who have vacations there planned. And I don't think people should be bullied into canceling unless they really have thought it through and want to do that.

How are we bullying people into cancelling their vacations? We have to take this storm seriously because it will impact us directly as people who live in Disney's backyard and because of that, we can try provide our best opinion to those who might be impacted on their vacation.