90% of people on this thread already know this but I think it's worth observing that the cone of uncertainty from this forecast has a certain explanatory power, given what we know.
We know that the models anticipate a weakening of the ridge to the north late Monday and into Tuesday and that this weakening means that Dorian will turn to the north instead of continuing west, but that there is uncertainty about how far west Dorian will get before the ridge weakens and this turn begins.
We can see this in the cone above. If Dorian stalls a lot, it will follow a track represented by the right-hand side of the cone and stay far out to sea. If Dorian moves west faster or if the ridge takes longer to weaken or both, Dorian will follow the left edge of the cone and make landfall around Palm Beach. Under this "bad" scenario, Dorian would then turn north up the spine of Florida towards Orlando, following the left-hand edge of the cone. Note also that upon landfall Dorian will lose integrity and its wind field will expand beyond the already massive Tropical Storm force windfield represented by the tan area around the Bahamas.
