Magic Key Renewals?

[Disstevefan1]

Just an FYI, Chapek was speaking in generalities rather than about DLR specifically. In fact I would say that comment is more directed toward WDW guests rather than DLR guests.

They've gone with the no AP model at DLR and found they weren't getting the amount of guests they wanted in the Park. So they know they need a happy medium of both day guests and an AP guest in order to get the numbers they want.

Totally agree this is not just about DLR APs, is about ALL APs

 

[CaptinEO]

For me personally I can only go on Saturdays and over the years the "break even" point for number of visits has gotten too high to be worthwhile for any weekend annual pass.

I also am not going to pay a premium to have to be in a bad reservation pool.

I know 8 people, including me and my wife that don't have an AP after 2020, so we can't be alone.

Which is fine, it just means I go once a year and don't bother with DCA.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Although true, they seem to have introduced a counter-intuitive system with Genie+ & Individual Lightning Lanes. The overall spending of guests on these services ultimately depends on how long the lines feel (and how high the posted wait times are... for those tricked into believing them lol). A very interesting decision that goes against their whole "PR philosophy" of fewer people = higher spending.

It seems to me, from what I am reading, the lines are feeling long right now with Genie+.

Some could call it a broken system, but could it be this way by design (lines feel longer with less people in the parks), therefore, I need to get Genie+ and ILL?

 

[Disney Irish]

Totally agree this is not just about DLR APs, is about ALL APs

Except this thread is specifically about DLR Magic Keys Renewals, not about APs in general.

So any information discussed should be with it being specific to DLR.

 

[Sailor310]

I've been reviewing Touring Plans historical crowds lately. Even with the two lower keys blacked out, Sundays are lightest, then Saturdays. Mon, Tues, Wed are often the worst days of the week. I don't know if DL is orchestrating it, summer, or what, but it sure goes against my long experience of Tu, Wed, Thurs being lightest.

 

[mickEblu]

I've been reviewing Touring Plans historical crowds lately. Even with the two lower keys blacked out, Sundays are lightest, then Saturdays. Mon, Tues, Wed are often the worst days of the week. I don't know if DL is orchestrating it, summer, or what, but it sure goes against my long experience of Tu, Wed, Thurs being lightest.

A little off topic but your post reminded me how so many people I know are stuck in the 90s when it comes to predicting DL crowd levels. These poor saps will say something like “no way I’m going to go on a Saturday in July. I’m waiting for a weekday in October.” I don’t blame them of course. They think crowds are still primarily dictated by traditional school schedules and not the AP calendar.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Except this thread is specifically about DLR Magic Keys Renewals, not about APs in general.

So any information discussed should be with it being specific to DLR.

In my opinion, everything I posted applies to DLR Magic Keys as well as all AP programs.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I am not sure an opinion can be false, it's just an opinion.

No one wants APs back more than I.

TWDC does NOT want bodies in the parks.

TWDC want the least number of bodies, who spend the most money, in the parks.

Chapek stated this in public:
“AS YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT GUESTS, DEPENDING ON WHERE THEY ARE COMING FROM, HAVE DIFFERENT RELATIVE VALUES IN TERMS OF THEIR CONTRIBUTION AS A GUEST TO THE PARK. TYPICALLY SOMEONE WHO TRAVELS AND STAYS FOR 5-7 DAYS IS MARGINALLY MORE VALUABLE TO THE BUSINESS THAN SOMEONE WHO COMES IN ON AN ANNUAL PASS AND STAYS A DAY OR TWO AND CONSUMES LESS MERCHANDISE AND FOOD AND BEVERAGE.”

And both opinions can be true simultaneously, it’s true Disney prefers higher paying day guests over APs but it’s also true Disney wants a specific number of guests in the parks every day and 99% of the time they needs APs to hit that number.

The Keys are a (poorly devised) program to prioritize day guest sales and then backfill with APs, I’m sure on paper it looked brilliant but in the real world it’s been a disaster with both day guests and APs upset. I’m genuinely curious to see how many Keyholders they lose next month, my guess is the number not renewing will be higher than anything they’ve ever seen in years past.

For me personally I can only go on Saturdays and over the years the "break even" point for number of visits has gotten too high to be worthwhile for any weekend annual pass.

I also am not going to pay a premium to have to be in a bad reservation pool.

I know 8 people, including me and my wife that don't have an AP after 2020, so we can't be alone.

Which is fine, it just means I go once a year and don't bother with DCA.

We are letting ours go this year, we live out of state and have gone one weekend every month or two for a decade, we are ironically Disneys desired APs (we stay in the hotels and eat on property) but the break even point on a Dream Key is so high it doesn’t make sense for anyone but locals who can go several times every month, we barely broke even this year so next year we’ll just go less, save some money, and not deal with the reservations.

 

[Disney Irish]

In my opinion, everything I posted applies to DLR Magic Keys as well as all AP programs.

I mean that is your opinion, but doesn't mean its the reality of the situation. The DLR make up of guests is a lot different than WDW, so should be discussed differently as well. Because what is good for WDW in terms of the guest breakdown doesn't work for DLR, as Disney found out themselves.

As such the discussion of DLR Magic Key has to be separate from all other Disney Parks APs.

 

[Californian Elitist]

Totally agree this is not just about DLR APs, is about ALL APs

Just curious, have you ever been a DLR AP?

 

[CaptinEO]

And both opinions can be true simultaneously, it’s true Disney prefers higher paying day guests over APs but it’s also true Disney wants a specific number of guests in the parks every day and 99% of the time they needs APs to hit that number.

The Keys are a (poorly devised) program to prioritize day guest sales and then backfill with APs, I’m sure on paper it looked brilliant but in the real world it’s been a disaster with both day guests and APs upset. I’m genuinely curious to see how many Keyholders they lose next month, my guess is the number not renewing will be higher than anything they’ve ever seen in years past.



We are letting ours go this year, we live out of state and have gone one weekend every month or two for a decade, we are ironically Disneys desired APs (we stay in the hotels and eat on property) but the break even point on a Dream Key is so high it doesn’t make sense for anyone but locals who can go several times every month, we barely broke even this year so next year we’ll just go less, save some money, and not deal with the reservations.

I totally see your point. For me even as a local I don't see the value of going here 10 or 12 times a year to break even on an annual pass. I think many AP holders forget how cheap multi day tickets are and that you can spread the visits out over two weeks.

The Dream and Believe key make it so if you can only go on weekends and want an AP that you have to visit a dozen times to break even. No thanks from me.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Just curious, have you ever been a DLR AP?

Firstly, I apologize for stating my opinions about APs in general in this DLR thread even if I think they apply. TWDC does not wat annual pass holders in general

I was never a DLR AP, just over a decade of a family of three with the WDW platinum APs our last APs expired in 2020 technically, but our last visit was in December 2019 just before the great reset... Ah, the good old days...

I understand before the great reset, the DLR AP was an EXCELLENT product! and many locals held APs. It was rumored that up to 75 percent of the visitors to DLR entered with an AP, and why not! It was a SUPER VALUE.

A lot of people use that stat to say that APs ARE DLRs core customers, and the loss of these customers will kill DLR.

Apparently not? DLR remained completely closed much longer than WDW, DLR canceled their perfect DLR AP and is doing just fine.

It's clear that WDW makes the most money NOT from locals who enter with APs but from "real vacationers". Maybe, TWDC is using this moment in time to force this kind change at DLR? More "real vacationers" and less locals who stop in to get a bite to eat.

 

[el_super]

And both opinions can be true simultaneously, it’s true Disney prefers higher paying day guests over APs but it’s also true Disney wants a specific number of guests in the parks every day and 99% of the time they needs APs to hit that number.

I think this was the common wisdom for the last ten years, but it's not where Disney wants to be any longer. They reached a point where the only alternative method for getting extra bodies in the park, was to let TOO many people into the park. Feast or famine. It was a bad setup that needed to stop.

Fortunately for them, they have an infinite number of discounting promotions to draw from to start to ween the audience off of APs and into a system that promises far less admission wise, and is far easier to control.

That last three day offer for So Cal residents was significant.

 

[CaptinEO]

Firstly, I apologize for stating my opinions about APs in general in this DLR thread even if I think they apply. TWDC does not wat annual pass holders in general

I was never a DLR AP, just over a decade of a family of three with the WDW platinum APs our last APs expired in 2020 technically, but our last visit was in December 2019 just before the great reset... Ah, the good old days...

I understand before the great reset, the DLR AP was an EXCELLENT product! and many locals held APs. It was rumored that up to 75 percent of the visitors to DLR entered with an AP, and why not! It was a SUPER VALUE.

A lot of people use that stat to say that APs ARE DLRs core customers, and the loss of these customers will kill DLR.

Apparently not? DLR remained completely closed much longer than WDW, DLR canceled their perfect DLR AP and is doing just fine.

It's clear that WDW makes the most money NOT from locals who enter with APs but from "real vacationers". Maybe, TWDC is using this moment in time to force this kind change at DLR? More "real vacationers" and less locals who stop in to get a bite to eat.

People are ignorant about this and tend to forget Disneyland operated for decades before annual pass holders were a big thing.

Disney should adjust their admission price based on actual demand (weekdays that are non holidays would just need to be lowered).

There are many business models they can follow without needing bulk discount admission.

Despite that many APs are entitled enough to assume Disney needs them or something.

Clearly Disney raised priced and slashed the number of benefits and the number of APs sold (and people still buy into it). I think they are just seeing exactly how thin they can stretch people who are used to having APs.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I think this was the common wisdom for the last ten years, but it's not where Disney wants to be any longer. They reached a point where the only alternative method for getting extra bodies in the park, was to let TOO many people into the park. Feast or famine. It was a bad setup that needed to stop.

Fortunately for them, they have an infinite number of discounting promotions to draw from to start to ween the audience off of APs and into a system that promises far less admission wise, and is far easier to control.

That last three day offer for So Cal residents was significant.

I agree, I think on both coasts, they are going to erase APs and offer these multi day ticket deals to locals (when they feel they need to) instead. I wish these multi day deals would come with free parking but I am a dreamer..

If/when they ever feel the theme parks are not bringing in enough money, (not people as in attendance) then they are always free to offer some sort of “AP like” product.

 

[Californian Elitist]

Firstly, I apologize for stating my opinions about APs in general in this DLR thread even if I think they apply. TWDC does not wat annual pass holders in general

I was never a DLR AP, just over a decade of a family of three with the WDW platinum APs our last APs expired in 2020 technically, but our last visit was in December 2019 just before the great reset... Ah, the good old days...

I understand before the great reset, the DLR AP was an EXCELLENT product! and many locals held APs. It was rumored that up to 75 percent of the visitors to DLR entered with an AP, and why not! It was a SUPER VALUE.

A lot of people use that stat to say that APs ARE DLRs core customers, and the loss of these customers will kill DLR.

Apparently not? DLR remained completely closed much longer than WDW, DLR canceled their perfect DLR AP and is doing just fine.

It's clear that WDW makes the most money NOT from locals who enter with APs but from "real vacationers". Maybe, TWDC is using this moment in time to force this kind change at DLR? More "real vacationers" and less locals who stop in to get a bite to eat.

No need to apologize.

I asked because it definitely sounded like you may have been speaking from a WDW standpoint and had little experience with DLR/DLR APs. It’s definitely a different thing here, and I think to apply the WDW AP experience to ours doesn’t work. I don’t see a pass program completely going away forever, but who knows? We’ll see.

Also, the stopping in just to eat thing is no longer.

 

[Disstevefan1]

No need to apologize.

I asked because it definitely sounded like you may have been speaking from a WDW standpoint and had little experience with DLR/DLR APs. It’s definitely a different thing here, and I think to apply the WDW AP experience to ours doesn’t work. I don’t see a pass program completely going away forever, but who knows? We’ll see.

Also, the stopping in just to eat thing is no longer.

I totally agree, the AP experience is different on both coasts.
To be honest, before the great reset, I always thought DLR as a local park and DLR truly needed APs to make enough money to satisfy TWDC
To be clear, TWDC does not care about anyone's experience. They only care about money.
The "Disney Data" will determine what TWDC does with APs for a given park.
Can TWDC make enough money in DLR without AP? Time will tell.

 

[freebird72]

That last three day offer for So Cal residents was significant.

The current 3-day extends to ALL California residents (us Northern California folks too!). Which I think is very significant.

I am an AP/MK holder from the Bay Area--I am still on the fence as to whether I renew or not.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

That last three day offer for So Cal residents was significant.

Which feels kind of odd, massive discounts for locals but not many discounts to entice non locals to stay longer. Their words indicate they want more tourists but their actions indicate they still prefer locals.

Since we’re letting our Keys expire we’ve been looking at DL ticket options and have been a bit surprised the diminishing prices for extra days don’t seriously kick in until day 4, that makes sense at WDW but seems very odd at DL with only 2 parks. $150 for 1 day, $250 for 2 days, $330 for 3 days… not much incentive to spend the morning in the park on travel day, compared to our WDW trips where we buy tickets for arrival and departure day because additional days are so cheap.

We currently do 3 day weekends with travel (1/2 day Friday, full day Saturday, and 1/2 day Sunday) but without much of a discount for day 3 we’ll likely just buy 2 day tickets, arrive earlier Friday and skip Sunday mornings, unfortunately this makes the entire trip less desirable because it’s a lot of driving for less time in the parks, or we’ll do a full day Sunday and drive home Monday which requires taking a day off work, his unfortunately means fewer trips because we’re now burning PTO. Either way we‘re much less likely to spend days in their hotels and in their parks as non locals facing new hurdles.

To us it feels like everything they’re doing makes trips more difficult for non locals and favors locals over tourists.

 

[shambolicdefending]

It's worth remembering that whatever Disney is trying to do, it's going to be part of a long-term strategy that extends well beyond one or two summers.

Assuming they're trying to increase the share of tourists and decrease the share of locals, that's not going to happen quickly. It'll likely take a multi-year effort of various price and operational adjustments before an investment in that strategy might pay off. It's also possible it won't pay off. But, again, they won't really know for years.