Low crowd trends? Is this true?

[RiversideBunny]

I'm a local and have been in the parks a lot recently. I would say that on the whole attendance is marginally down, but certainly cannot be described as dead or empty. MK hit capacity on July 4, and the water parks have hit capacity on several days since.

I suspect that a few factors are contributing (in no particular order)

1. Economy - even during the hope of recovery in Jan 2010, people were remaining cautious and not booking their trips for Summer 2010. The fear of slipping back into recession again now prevents spur of the moment trips now we are actually in the summer.

2. Tour groups - the south american tours groups have been coming in bigger numbers in recent years, and this year is an all-time high in recent years from what I have seen. I know many people who actively avoid WDW during this time purely because of it.

3. "Holiday pricing" - on both resort rooms and dining. Why pay so much more for rooms and dining during the most uncomfortable time of year? Example - so called "holiday pricing" ramps up Boma from $33 to $37 for exactly the same food and service during July and August. The summer simply represents bad value at WDW.

4. Weather - high temperatures and lots of rain this summer have made park conditions not so great. This was particularly evident on July 4 weekend (almost constant rain) - lots of Floridians stayed away.

5. Visitor patterns have distributed out more evenly. The traditional dead times of Jan and Sep have picked up, moving some visitors from the summer to those times.

6. Universal. Nah. Potter may be busy due to it being new, but it's capacity is small and it's cannibalizing visitors from their other attractions. They aren't eating into WDW visitors enough to make an impact.

At last, a rational list of reasons.
Thanks.
:king:

 

[Ignohippo]

Another note:
While Universal is running 300% over last year, their hotels are also staying at nearly 100% occupancy. We stayed at the Portofino last week and were told that they were actually over-booked.

 

[stlbobby]

If there is a decline in attendance, I wonder how much (if any) could be attributed to the possibility that WDW is becoming overpriced? Not just in the current climate of the economy, but in general?

I know, there are always promotions and specials to be found for people looking to go to WDW, and perhaps the diehards on a forum like this might not be the best place to ask. But there is always a perception that Disney is much more expensive than other vacations (in fact, it's comparable to vacations to metro areas that are also popular vacation destinations). Nonetheless, prices of tickets and resort rooms (minus promos) tend to increase higher than the rate of inflation...and WDW tends to attract a lot of repeat guests. Maybe the repeat guest aren't repeating as often as they usually do. Instead of every year, or multiple times a year, they're taking a year off (gotta compensate for that decimated 401K somehow, right?).

I've said this in other threads, but I think WDW is reaching a tipping point where the impression of it being a tremendous expense (and the reality that it IS a tremendous expense for many people) is coming back to bite them on the butt. They've employed a pricing structure similar to department stores who have ridiculous prices on their clothes to begin with, so a half-off sale makes their merchandise affordable while still maintaining a certain aura of prestige. WDW prices their services ridiculously high, so the discounts, where they still take in an impressive profit, comes off as a bargain in comparision. But you can only stretch that concept so far, and perhaps it's at a snapping point.

Another (lesser) factor that may come into play: Diehard Disneyphiles might be waiting for there to be more. The FL expansion, more at DTD, enough new to make the trip much more interesting.

I don't think this is the case because when I quote a vacation most people are pleasantly surprised and I usually start with a deluxe quote. When discounts come in they are even more excited. I think they are playing the overpriced / deep discounts game, but it hasn't hurt them yet. It might down the road, but it don't think it is right now.

There are a lot of people out there that really think they are getting a steal if they are getting 45% off or free dining that wouldn't even consider going if that was the rack rate. There's also a surprising amount of people that will book at the rack rate and then not call back for the discount.

I do think you are right that the FL expansion might actually be hurting them right now, just as I bet IoA was slower earlier this summer. This is the big problem with announcing big projects they want to get it out early enough to generate buzz and explain the mess, but not so early that people start pushing trips back.

They collect a licensing fee on the Marvel rides at Universal. But it's not based on percentages or attendance. It is a simple fee.

Do you have source for this?

 

[wm49rs]

Do you have source for this?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3mVWau.h28g

 

[Ignohippo]

Source please.

Others have posted direct information from the purchase that seems to refute this.

Also... I'm pretty certain we've had more than one report of virtually all Marvel merch pulled from Uni's shelves (because that WOULD increase Disney's take).

I can tell you, since I was there last week, that the shops are completely jammed with Marvel merchandise. I saw absolutely no signs of them backing down from carrying Marvel merchandise. As a matter of a fact, in the shops that carry a wide range of merchandise, there was more Marvel merch than Potter,

I hate people who do this (because it seems so unreliable) but I cannot reveal my source, I can only say it's someone incredibly high up with the Universal parks – on a corporate level. Perhaps they have misinformation (which I would certainly doubt) but this was what I was told over dinner.

 

[stlbobby]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3mVWau.h28g

This article doesn't really breakdown the licensing agreement, and other posters including one on this thread have claimed there is a percentage component. I'm not saying who is right I just want to see an actual break down from something reliable.

 

[wm49rs]

This article doesn't really breakdown the licensing agreement, and other posters including one on this thread have claimed there is a percentage component. I'm not saying who is right I just want to see an actual break down from something reliable.

If it had been a percentage arrangement then Bloomberg would have noted it. I'll take their analysis over the supposed insider drivel around here.

 

[floridabill]

Just a thought

I wonder if most people switched over there plans for the free dining, and if disney intentionally pushed dining into the holiday months. I say this because if you give more big ticket items like a dining package and a room discount, maybe they hope people will spend more in the parks because we are approaching major holiday's. plus we have to look at it this way has the very merry christmas party sold out?? how about the halloween party?? if those don't then i'd say we have a issue on hand!

 

[stlbobby]

If it had been a percentage arrangement then Bloomberg would have noted it. I'll take their analysis over the supposed insider drivel around here.

It is the best reference I've actually seen, but I don't think you can just assume there was no percentage component because it wasn't mentioned.

 

[OFTeric]

Ok I have to chime in, regarding the Marvel properties.

@wm49rs is correct. It is a simple licensing deals that has a lot of * in it.

There are 3 different agreements with marvel.
1. Attractions
2. In Park characters
3. Merchandise

These 3 agreements have different terms and fees associated with them.

The attractions agreements are a simple licensing fee agreement. Similar to when Disney paid to use the MGM name and catalog. This includes using those marvel properties in promotional materials for the parks (hence I am most familiar with this agreement).

In Park Characters is really the only thing Disney could pull if they wanted to be a (bad word). Marvel had set up A LOT of room for control of their characters appearance in park.

Merchandise is the agreement I know least about so I will let those who know more share.

But please people think logically and from a purely business stand point.

 

[stlbobby]

Ok I have to chime in, regarding the Marvel properties.

@wm49rs is correct. It is a simple licensing deals that has a lot of * in it.

There are 3 different agreements with marvel.
1. Attractions
2. In Park characters
3. Merchandise

These 3 agreements have different terms and fees associated with them.

The attractions agreements are a simple licensing fee agreement. Similar to when Disney paid to use the MGM name and catalog. This includes using those marvel properties in promotional materials for the parks (hence I am most familiar with this agreement).

In Park Characters is really the only thing Disney could pull if they wanted to be a (bad word). Marvel had set up A LOT of room for control of their characters appearance in park.

Merchandise is the agreement I know least about so I will let those who know more share.

But please people think logically and from a purely business stand point.

Again do you have a source for this?

 

[OFTeric]

Again do you have a source for this?

Myself.

 

[Biff215]

I find it hard to believe that the FLE would have much of an effect on attendance. Sure there may be some people around here waiting, but the general public hardly has a clue that anything is going on until they see the actual construction when they get to WDW. While it was a big announcement, it was really only reported on sites like this within the Disney community.

Potter is another animal entirely. They are marketing it pretty well (especially considering the media keep referring to it as a theme park in itself). But when IoA draws the HP fans, there's a pretty good chance they're going to spend at least a day in Disney, especially after they see the actual size of WWoHP and brave any lines.

 

[stlbobby]

Myself.

I'm sorry, but I'm going to need more than that. Not saying your wrong, I think you're probably right, but why should I believe you over everyone who has posted the exact opposite?

 

[wm49rs]

I'm sorry, but I'm going to need more than that. Not saying your wrong, I think you're probably right, but why should I believe you over everyone who has posted the exact opposite?

Then, with all respect, I would suggest you go out and conduct further research on the matter yourself....

 

[OFTeric]

I'm sorry, but I'm going to need more than that. Not saying your wrong, I think you're probably right, but why should I believe you over everyone who has posted the exact opposite?

redacted

 

[stlbobby]

Then, with all respect, I would suggest you go out and conduct further research on the matter yourself....

I'm not the one posting that I have actual knowledge of the situation. The onus to provide references is on the one making assertions.

If you don't no big deal. It's just an internet thread. I was just looking for some real info out of curiosity, because it keeps coming up on these boards.

 

[magic minnie]

We will be there in a week!! I'm hoping crowds are light, but as our last trip was the week after Christmas, anything will be better than that! I don't think Harry Potter will have a huge impact, I'm a huge fan of the books and my husband and I both love the movies, but we are only going over there for one day and spending the rest of the week at Disney.

 

[wm49rs]

I'm not the one posting that I have actual knowledge of the situation. The onus to provide references is on the one making assertions.

If you don't no big deal. It's just an internet thread. I was just looking for some real info out of curiosity, because it keeps coming up on these boards.

You were given an updated article from Bloomberg News on the acquisition, which you found lacking for some reason. I made no assertions past what was stated in the article. If that is not enough to satisfy your need for information, seek out what you're looking for.

 

[TarzanRocked99-]

just throwing in my input as another local that goes to the parks often. I havnt been to AK or Universal so I cannot comment on crowds there this summer. Epcot and DHS seem to be taking the brunt of the attendance drop from what I can see. The parks just feel empty in a way I havnt felt in years. MK seems just stready, its not empty but not packed as it should be, I usually avoid it completely in the summer but this year its managable and not sooo bad. Sea World seems the same as MK, busy but not your typical summer crowds. Now IOA on the other hand is packed daily, I have been going to Potterland once a week and its consistanly mobbed as is Citywalk. Its really kind of neat to see such a positive reaction to a new offering in Orlando, havnt seen this type of response since the opening of Everest.