Lightning Lane Premier Pass

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Occupancy is flat 2023 vs. 2024. Only up since COVID. Down 5% since peak 2019, and 3% down from 2018. Disney is doing just fine.

Epic isn't selling because they aren't selling single day tickets yet for the majority of prospective people. Epic's largest pool of potential guests is still people going to WDW.

These are SEC filings, and please note available room nights are relatively the same across all these years.

View attachment 847490
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Nobody has said Disney isn’t “fine”

But they tell you why every quarter

So a public company with embattled management is understating their demand with a struggling stock…to what end?

Or maybe…demand is flat or shrinking and revenue increases as due to “cost savings and price increases”?

Que?

Two things can be true at the same time:

You can make money and still have your business regressing
 

Splash4eva

Well-Known Member
Nobody has said Disney isn’t “fine”

But they tell you why every quarter

So a public company with embattled management is understating their demand with a struggling stock…to what end?

Or maybe…demand is flat or shrinking and revenue increases as due to “cost savings and price increases”?

Que?

Two things can be true at the same time:

You can make money and still have your business regressing
Ive been saying this for awhile and on record. Stock has been struggling for an extremely longggggg time. Iger for some reason had been given a pass by Wall St. in simple terms DIS has s$cked in comparison ive posted numbers before. I dont have bberg handy but trust me on this.
 

Dranth

Well-Known Member
Correct…but that trend has been going on for at least 25 years…and repositioning takes time.

It’s not because of Covid…which is becoming a go to excuse for about everything including the Reichstag fire.
The trend of people shifting to "off" times has definitely been going on for 25+ years. I don't think many believe Covid had much impact on that. What it did do was offer an easy out for Disney to reset attendance levels. Combine that, the unpopular changes Disney management have made (main one being prices) and the change in the larger publics travel patterns (more cruising, more local stops, more national parks, etc.) and you get what we have today.
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
Occupancy is flat 2023 vs. 2024. Only up since COVID. Down 5% since peak 2019, and 3% down from 2018. Disney is doing just fine.

Epic isn't selling because they aren't selling single day tickets yet for the majority of prospective people. Epic's largest pool of potential guests is still people going to WDW.

These are SEC filings, and please note available room nights are relatively the same across all these years.

View attachment 847490
View attachment 847491
View attachment 847492
In 2015 the number of available room nights was 10,644,000. A 600k drop in the number of room nights available/year in 9 years, or 1643 rooms no longer available per night every day of the year.

1741387653694.png


Based on stated occupancy rates, there were more rooms occupied in 2015 than in 2019, and 2024's occupancy rate is well below both. Fewer rooms are being occupied overall. I don't even remember where I was going with this... 😂 Suffice it to say, overall room occupancy is down from 10 years ago, let alone the peak attendance years.

Just for grins and giggles, how many rooms were available in 2006?

1741387931744.png


So the company added roughly a gross total of 2740 domestic rooms in Iger's first 9 years, and then the Parks division has proceeded to shut down over half of that increase since. Not to mention one of the favorite past times under Iger has been to convert cash rooms to DVC - BLT, Poly, GF, CC, Riviera, the FW cabins... (I don't recall when AKL rooms were converted to DVC). I don't know if or how DVC rooms are factored into the available room numbers, so I'd be curious to know, if someone has information around that.

Yes, Eisner squeezed guests, but he did have a tendency to provide more for the money. Under Bob, it's been - Reduce the offerings and squeeze the lemon harder, we know there's some more juice in there...
 

Splash4eva

Well-Known Member
The trend of people shifting to "off" times has definitely been going on for 25+ years. I don't think many believe Covid had much impact on that. What it did do was offer an easy out for Disney to reset attendance levels. Combine that, the unpopular changes Disney management have made (main one being prices) and the change in the larger publics travel patterns (more cruising, more local stops, more national parks, etc.) and you get what we have today.
You can argue that spreading crowds was not the best idea…. The really crowded times are still just that and now times that use to be historically dead are no longer.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The trend of people shifting to "off" times has definitely been going on for 25+ years. I don't think many believe Covid had much impact on that. What it did do was offer an easy out for Disney to reset attendance levels. Combine that, the unpopular changes Disney management have made (main one being prices) and the change in the larger publics travel patterns (more cruising, more local stops, more national parks, etc.) and you get what we have today.
Correct…and what we have is thinning margins regardless of huge price bumps and the bleed of longtime current and future clientele

If we’re doing the “truth” thing today 😎
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
In 2015 the number of available room nights was 10,644,000. A 600k drop in the number of room nights available/year in 9 years, or 1643 rooms no longer available per night every day of the year.

View attachment 847505

Based on stated occupancy rates, there were more rooms occupied in 2015 than in 2019, and 2024's occupancy rate is well below both. Fewer rooms are being occupied overall. I don't even remember where I was going with this... 😂 Suffice it to say, overall room occupancy is down from 10 years ago, let alone the peak attendance years.

Just for grins and giggles, how many rooms were available in 2006?

View attachment 847506

So the company added roughly a gross total of 2740 domestic rooms in Iger's first 9 years, and then the Parks division has proceeded to shut down over half of that increase since. Not to mention one of the favorite past times under Iger has been to convert cash rooms to DVC - BLT, Poly, GF, CC, Riviera, the FW cabins... (I don't recall when AKL rooms were converted to DVC). I don't know if or how DVC rooms are factored into the available room numbers, so I'd be curious to know, if someone has information around that.

Yes, Eisner squeezed guests, but he did have a tendency to provide more for the money. Under Bob, it's been - Reduce the offerings and squeeze the lemon harder, we know there's some more juice in there...
Dvc took up about 150 or so of the original dak rooms in 2007/2008…then they built kidani
You can argue that spreading crowds was not the best idea…. The really crowded times are still just that and now times that use to be historically dead are no longer.
That was the case until 2019…what they see now is not even close.

That’s the price…plain and simple

And it’s contrary to the overall trend in travel and the economic picture as a whole.
 

Splash4eva

Well-Known Member
Dvc took up about 150 or so of the original dak rooms in 2007/2008…then they built kidani

That was the case until 2019…what they see now is not even close.

That’s the price…plain and simple

And it’s contrary to the overall trend in travel and the economic picture as a whole.
Im curious how many visitors are like me who go annually just to go but still choose other new/different that either stopped doing so or cant afford both now or simply fed up& thats where some of this downtirn is coming from
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Im curious how many visitors are like me who go annually just to go but still choose other new/different that either stopped doing so or cant afford both now or simply fed up& thats where some of this downtirn is coming from
The “fulcrum” that this all pivoted on is the genie/lightning lane…In my opinion

Let’s face it…it sucked in 2017-2019. Miserable

But you weren’t recharged for lines. So now they put pressure on you to not disappoint yourself…your kids…your party and buy that.

So what does your ticket get you? Access to the concrete to buy a $70 character buffet and a $45 “abbreviated line pass if your app gets the right slots”…

…it’s just too far. The psychology is collapsing on the house of cards

And as said a billion times…even if it’s not about the money…it doesn’t provide “luxury” to make it not matter
 

Splash4eva

Well-Known Member
The “fulcrum” that this all pivoted on is the genie/lightning lane…In my opinion

Let’s face it…it sucked in 2017-2019. Miserable

But you weren’t recharged for lines. So now they put pressure on you to not disappoint yourself…your kids…your party and buy that.

So what does your ticket get you? Access to the concrete to buy a $70 character buffet and a $45 “abbreviated line pass if your app gets the right slots”…

…it’s just too far. The psychology is collapsing on the house of cards

And as said a billion times…even if it’s not about the money…it doesn’t provide “luxury” to make it not matter
To use this example & again a small sample size. Just came back from a blended family trip witg my gf & kids 1st time. They had a great time majority bc i did all the bookings etc but would not even entertain coming back in at least 3-4 years. And said the amount of work to do on “vacation” is crazy. The amount of times rideS stopped while on them etc. this is literally the same reaction i get from every 1st timer.
 

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
To use this example & again a small sample size. Just came back from a blended family trip witg my gf & kids 1st time. They had a great time majority bc i did all the bookings etc but would not even entertain coming back in at least 3-4 years. And said the amount of work to do on “vacation” is crazy. The amount of times rideS stopped while on them etc. this is literally the same reaction i get from every 1st timer.
That's a major problem as that's how the parks were built. They need repeat visitors. Which is hard to do if they don't like the first time they visit.
 

Vegas Disney Fan

Well-Known Member
That's a major problem as that's how the parks were built. They need repeat visitors. Which is hard to do if they don't like the first time they visit.
I’ve said for years that I’m thankful my first trip to a Disney park was on a cold rainy DL day in November, I ran all over that park like a little kid in a candy store, still had several waits over 45 minutes but it was just pure fun, it’s where my deep love of the parks, and my hundreds of return trips, began. Had my first trip been one of my far more difficult 2022-2024 trips I’m not sure I’d have ever gone back.

I think this is by far the biggest gamble with their current strategy. If they don’t hook people on their first trip they risk them never coming back.
 

Splash4eva

Well-Known Member
That's a major problem as that's how the parks were built. They need repeat visitors. Which is hard to do if they don't like the first time they visit.
Agreed but sadly these parks imo cant sustain a “full capacity” of people like they use to between less hours lack of entertainment less ride capacity more down time and whatever else ive missed… its not a smart strategy but they seem to be content on charging guests top tier prices bc they are Disney and not worried if they wait 4 years to come back and just keep revolving guests. The parks can be “profitable” BUT the question that needs to be asked is how much was left on table. Its like walking into a casino being up 10k but walking away up 1k. Some can argue both ends of this yea you won but you also left a ton on the table
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Agreed but sadly these parks imo cant sustain a “full capacity” of people like they use to between less hours lack of entertainment less ride capacity more down time and whatever else ive missed… its not a smart strategy but they seem to be content on charging guests top tier prices bc they are Disney and not worried if they wait 4 years to come back and just keep revolving guests. The parks can be “profitable” BUT the question that needs to be asked is how much was left on table. Its like walking into a casino being up 10k but walking away up 1k. Some can argue both ends of this yea you won but you also left a ton on the table
So what you’re saying is…they’re poorly run?

Yeah…that’s kinda the thing
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
That's a major problem as that's how the parks were built. They need repeat visitors. Which is hard to do if they don't like the first time they visit.
I would love to see the real data on repeat visitors. I have heard 70 percent of visitors are repeat visitors? I have no idea if that is true and it would be real interesting to see the data on repeat visitors over time to see if the percentage of repeat visitors is, or is not, going down.

We need the awesome power of @lentesta to get this data!
 

lentesta

Premium Member
I would love to see the real data on repeat visitors. I have heard 70 percent of visitors are repeat visitors? I have no idea if that is true and it would be real interesting to see the data on repeat visitors over time to see if the percentage of repeat visitors is, or is not, going down.

We need the awesome power of @lentesta to get this data!

I can do it. Will take a bit - this week is crammed with stuff. Interesting question!
 

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