Lightning Lane Premier Pass

[Splash4eva]

I think Disney definitely inflates wait times but im curious how many people who buy it actually analyze this before going and make a decision on it based on what they say. By everyones admission a ton of people who used Genie didnt get the most out of it so why would anyone think they did any extra leg work before hand. Most people like us on these boards are either buying it or not. Especially that its bought beforehand and in theory 1 day/ park have no bearing on whats happening next. I truly feel it is done for multiple factors. DAS and guest “satisfaction” being a couple along with the illusion that longer wait times imply others to say hey it if there is a long wait this must be good we want to go to Dis ey

 

[mysto]

If the wait time is 60m and it then becomes 30m. How long does it take to notice and prove that out?

30 minutes.

I'm great at exams. Sometimes even math problems.

 

[UNCgolf]

As an addendum to what I posted earlier about inflating wait times -- I assume they'd also generally want a cushion re: wait times in case a bunch of people enter the queue in a very short period of time and spike the actual wait. It would take some time to reflect that in the posted wait, so the built-in cushion is nice to avoid potential guest complaints in that scenario too.

"The wait said 30 minutes, but it ended up taking 45 minutes and I missed a reservation!!"

 

[lentesta]

@lentesta , have your team done any analysis of the inflated wait times in the last hour of park hours?

It would be interesting to see actual data around the often mentioned extra-inflated wait times then.

I haven't, but in my spare time this week I've been working with ChatGPT to automate a bunch of these tasks, including restricting analysis to a specific time of day. Let me see what it comes up with.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I haven't, but in my spare time this week I've been working with ChatGPT to automate a bunch of these tasks, including restricting analysis to a specific time of day. Let me see what it comes up with.

Let us know when the AI starts singing "Daisy Daisy".

 

[lentesta]

Let us know when the AI starts singing "Daisy Daisy".

This is going to be funnier than you think, sooner than you think.

 

[C33Mom]

As an addendum to what I posted earlier about inflating wait times -- I assume they'd also generally want a cushion re: wait times in case a bunch of people enter the queue in a very short period of time and spike the actual wait. It would take some time to reflect that in the posted wait, so the built-in cushion is nice to avoid potential guest complaints in that scenario too.

"The wait said 30 minutes, but it ended up taking 45 minutes and I missed a reservation!!"

I agree with the people who say there should always be a 5-10m cushion— especially for the queues that slow dramatically or pause often when riders with special needs are boarding or frequently issue multi experience passes during breakdowns.

I understand that better accuracy can result in better planning— but having a line that runs 10-15m slower than anticipated is significantly more unpleasant and stressful (especially if you are a planner with a show, dining res, LL to catch) than discovering the line was 10-15 (or even 30) minutes shorter than you thought.

Everyone here talks about exaggerated queue times but I generally haven’t found it to be the case when we are doing rides standby and at least half the time it’s longer…I think the harm of people skipping lines because posted wait is 10m longer is smaller than having people who need to be in and out within a set period of time (whether for LL, dining, medical condition, etc) discovering that “oops, the line is 10m longer than we told you.”

It would be annoying/expensive to update the physical signs, but it might be smarter to have an estimated range instead of standby wait time. It would be more honest too.

 

[Bocabear]

With the variables of humans and ride hiccups, the wait times can never be a science. I think they do a good job of estimating, but that is all it can ever be. Sadly we have been trained over the last few years to become crazy planners... With advance reservations for rides, dining, rooms, shows and I am sure at some point, swimming pool slots and restroom breaks... This is what happens by having an extremely popular product and not enough capacity...and years and years with no meaningful expansion... And I think the over-planning has made these trips more like running a gauntlet than just enjoying time together...

 

[LSLS]

With the variables of humans and ride hiccups, the wait times can never be a science. I think they do a good job of estimating, but that is all it can ever be. Sadly we have been trained over the last few years to become crazy planners... With advance reservations for rides, dining, rooms, shows and I am sure at some point, swimming pool slots and restroom breaks... This is what happens by having an extremely popular product and not enough capacity,,,abd years and years with no meaningful expansion... And I think the over-planning has made these trips more like running a gauntlet than just enjoying time together...

Again, it'd be fascinating to get the same type of data Len gets for other parks, cause my experience has been Disney does the worst job at estimating their wait times, and that says something when they have the most tools to make it accurate.

 

[DisneyCane]

With the variables of humans and ride hiccups, the wait times can never be a science. I think they do a good job of estimating, but that is all it can ever be. Sadly we have been trained over the last few years to become crazy planners... With advance reservations for rides, dining, rooms, shows and I am sure at some point, swimming pool slots and restroom breaks... This is what happens by having an extremely popular product and not enough capacity...and years and years with no meaningful expansion... And I think the over-planning has made these trips more like running a gauntlet than just enjoying time together...

Good point. It's not like an assembly line that can have processes in place to have a consistent rate. Since those variables exist, it's better to inflate the wait time to minimize upsetting guests. It is a FAR better experience to get in line and end up waiting a few minutes less than it said you would than to have it be a few minutes more.

 

[Purduevian]

Again, it'd be fascinating to get the same type of data Len gets for other parks, cause my experience has been Disney does the worst job at estimating their wait times, and that says something when they have the most tools to make it accurate.

Disney knows how long the wait will be pretty accurately (assuming the ride doesn't break down). It's really not a hard calculation if you know all the variables.

-If the line is within the "official" line cameras can easily track how many people have entered/exited(ridden) the standby line
-If the line is outside the "official" line, people generally space out between each other in a predictable pattern, so if the line reaches X point, they have a pretty accurate number of how many people are in standby
-They know the average % capacity given to standby
-They know the average operational ride capacity

The equation is

Wait time (mins)=People in Standby/{Average ride capacity (people/min)* Percent of capacity given to Standby}

For example, let's assume Pan does 1000 people per hour on average (16.667 people per min), 30% of ride capacity given to standby, and 852 people currently in the standby line

Wait time=852 / {16.667*.3}=170 mins

The longer the line, the more accurate this calculation gets (assuming no downtime) because the peaks and valleys of LL and mobility assistance will average out.

Disney then chooses to add some cushioning number for various reasons, but I have no doubt the number above is calculated and known by the system.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Disney knows how long the wait will be pretty accurately (assuming the ride doesn't break down). It's really not a hard calculation if you know all the variables.

-If the line is within the "official" line cameras can easily track how many people have entered/exited(ridden) the standby line
-If the line is outside the "official" line, people generally space out between each other in a predictable pattern, so if the line reaches X point, they have a pretty accurate number of how many people are in standby
-They know the average % capacity given to standby
-They know the average operational ride capacity

The equation is

Wait time (mins)=People in Standby/{Average ride capacity (people/min)* Percent of capacity given to Standby}

For example, let's assume Pan does 1000 people per hour on average (16.667 people per min), 30% of ride capacity given to standby, and 852 people currently in the standby line

Wait time=852 / {16.667*.3}=170 mins

The longer the line, the more accurate this calculation gets (assuming no downtime) because the peaks and valleys of LL and mobility assistance will average out.

Disney then chooses to add some cushioning number for various reasons, but I have no doubt the number above is calculated and known by the system.

I think they just roll three D20's.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

As an addendum to what I posted earlier about inflating wait times -- I assume they'd also generally want a cushion re: wait times in case a bunch of people enter the queue in a very short period of time and spike the actual wait. It would take some time to reflect that in the posted wait, so the built-in cushion is nice to avoid potential guest complaints in that scenario too.

"The wait said 30 minutes, but it ended up taking 45 minutes and I missed a reservation!!"

This times infinity.

The wait times listed for rides are for informational purposes. There is no for mathematical certainty with them. Disney isn't doing launch windows or orbital calculations here. There is really no reason to expend time/effort/money to make sure every wait time is dead one accurate to the minute. You make an estimate and you post it, and for reasons stated here in the past, and below, you are always going to err on the side of the estimate being longer than shorter.

Second if anything Disney would want, when they are estimating wait times, to OVER estimate the wait. As UNC posted above, they want to avoid that reaction on having missed a reservation or other scheduled event. There is also the general attitude that people would rather find that the wait time turns out to be less, than more. I mean have you ever head anyone complain about thinking a line was going to take 30min, and it turns out it takes them LESSS?

Getting through the line quicker than planned not only give a general better feeling of having gained time, it also now gives you potentially a block of time you didn't think you. Had. For example, we had that dinning reservation in an hour, and line said 45min but it really took 25. We have time now to pop into store to shop on way to the reservation.

 

[Disstevefan1]

This times infinity.

The wait times listed for rides are for informational purposes. There is no for mathematical certainty with them. Disney isn't doing launch windows or orbital calculations here. There is really no reason to expend time/effort/money to make sure every wait time is dead one accurate to the minute. You make an estimate and you post it, and for reasons stated here in the past, and below, you are always going to err on the side of the estimate being longer than shorter.

Second if anything Disney would want, when they are estimating wait times, to OVER estimate the wait. As UNC posted above, they want to avoid that reaction on having missed a reservation or other scheduled event. There is also the general attitude that people would rather find that the wait time turns out to be less, than more. I mean have you ever head anyone complain about thinking a line was going to take 30min, and it turns out it takes them LESSS?

Getting through the line quicker than planned not only give a general better feeling of having gained time, it also now gives you potentially a block of time you didn't think you. Had. For example, we had that dinning reservation in an hour, and line said 45min but it really took 25. We have time now to pop into store to shop on way to the reservation.

I think this really proves Disney intentionally posts longer wait times. Its better for the guest and and better for Disney with the possible side effect (albeit unintentional) of selling more LLs, also good for Disney.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

I think this really proves Disney intentionally posts longer wait times. Its better for the guest and and better for Disney with the possible side effect (albeit unintentional) of selling more LLs, also good for Disney.

I don't disagree. I guess maybe you could argue the point of intentionally post longer wait times, vs. erroring on the side of a higher estimate in order to make sure your estimate is never LOWER than the actual wait time.

Overall even before line skip was monetized, i think the same motivation of not caring if the wait time was accurate, but more caring that the wait is generally never MORE than posted wait time was the goal.

 

[Andrew25]

There is also the general attitude that people would rather find that the wait time turns out to be less, than more. I mean have you ever head anyone complain about thinking a line was going to take 30min, and it turns out it takes them LESSS?

The issue with that is that lots of people aren't (or can't) wait in line after a certain point. People have balking points which can lead to missing out on attractions.

 

[Nubs70]

I think this really proves Disney intentionally posts longer wait times. Its better for the guest and and better for Disney with the possible side effect (albeit unintentional) of selling more LLs, also good for Disney.

WDW earns more from attractions the more inefficient the attractions operate.

 

[lewisc]

I think this really proves Disney intentionally posts longer wait times. Its better for the guest and and better for Disney with the possible side effect (albeit unintentional) of selling more LLs, also good for Disney.

You're assuming Disney can determine an exact waiting time and is intentionally inflating it.
I think Disney has an idea, within a range, of the expected wait times. I'll agree Disney posts a wait time likely to be higher then likely. An accurate wait time, on average, suggests almost half the guests will be waiting longer then.posted

 

[Disstevefan1]

You're assuming Disney can determine an exact waiting time and is intentionally inflating it.
I think Disney has an idea, within a range, of the expected wait times. I'll agree Disney posts a wait time likely to be higher than likely. An accurate wait time, on average, suggests almost half the guests will be waiting longer then.posted

I am not assuming anything. To be clear, I know no one can determine exact wait times. @lentesta gets close because he is literally making measurements, not trying to calculate.

The point is, in my opinion, Disney does whatever to come up with a wait time and it’s inflated a large majority of time. Folks on the boards want to think it’s pure coincidence that 84 percent of the time Disney over estimates wait times.

84 percent of the time does not feel coincidental to me.

In my opinion, Disney knows they can’t calculate wait times accurately so they err on over estimating the times as it’s better for the guest experience and as a side effect may possibly sell more LLs

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

I am not assuming anything. To be clear, I know no one can determine exact wait times. @lentesta gets close because he is literally making measurements, not trying to calculate.

The point is, in my opinion, Disney does whatever to come up with a wait time and it’s inflated a large majority of time. Folks on the boards want to think it’s pure coincidence that 84 percent of the time Disney over estimates wait times.

84 percent of the time does not feel coincidental to me.

In my opinion, Disney knows they can’t calculate wait times accurately so they err on over estimating the times as it’s better for the guest experience and as a side effect may possibly sell more LLs

I think my only point of disagreement is that I think Disney COULD if it wanted to narrow down the wait times a bit more accurately. It would likely require devoting more resources and expenses to better dynamically tracking guests as they enter the line and then enter the ride. Likely adding in more magic band/ticket scanners as you enter ride, a certain midpoint, and the scan again right as you get on ride. I just don’t think, and it appears WDW doesn’t think there is any real value/roi on spending anything to get the wait times more accurate. A general number that is close but not less than the actual wait time, serves the purpose just fine.