Lightning Lane Premier Pass

[Gringrinngghost]

Not exactly true -- SeaWorld offers Platinum annual pass owners free use of Quick Queue, their version of the express lane, for one ride per attraction.

Quick Queue is available to regular day guests throughout the year for as little as $39 to as much as $140 depending on holidays.

You misquoted me. The Notes were for anything that I could not put into the document. I had nothing in particular to note specifically for SeaWorld. I also did not include the benefit of the pass since that pass covers all their parks and would skew that information.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

For years, I've noticed that the wait time is usually 15-20 minutes shorter than the posted time. If it's ever longer, it's probably due to the ride having problems. They likely do it to 1) Deter people from stacking up a ride that has seemingly shorter wait times or because people may completely skip a ride that they feel is not worth the wait, 2) because people are happy that the line moved more quickly than stated. They'd get more upset at the opposite.

Inflated wait times also impact DAS usage.

 

[Splash4eva]

Inflated wait times also impact DAS usage.

Yes they definitely do…

 

[larryz]

You misquoted me. The Notes were for anything that I could not put into the document. I had nothing in particular to note specifically for SeaWorld. I also did not include the benefit of the pass since that pass covers all their parks and would skew that information.

Yup. My bad -- I missed that you were just adding notes to the table. It's gone.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Yup. My bad -- I missed that you were just adding notes to the table. It's gone.

No worries.

 

[LSLS]

The one thing we have to consider is that Posted Wait Times (PWT) and Actual (Reported) Wait Times (AWT) are two different things. PWT is a forecast of how long you may have to wait and AWT is a specific measurement associated with the exact time you entered the queue.

One is actual and one is a forecast/prediction.

There are any number of reasons why PWT vs. AWT might not match - downtime, park events (parades, fireworks etc.) an influx of LL/VIP/DAS users, weather etc. Much like traffic on a highway, you can feel the ripple effects of rubbernecking for a long time after the accident has been cleared.

So comparing AWT vs PWT is a exercise in grading the WDW Ops team is on their forecasting abilities, not on how they can manipulate you in buying a LL.

Somewhat. But, you would think that predictions would not skew heavily one way or the other if that was the case (otherwise they would change their prediction methods) since there are a host of reasons to both under and over predict. Also, Disney has more access to data for rider wait times than any other park out there. It would be fair to assume they would be the most accurate, but my totally unscientific observations is they are among the worst of the parks I have visited at posted vs. actual wait times (note I've not been to Universal in 20 years so I've got no comparison there).

 

[JD80]

Somewhat. But, you would think that predictions would not skew heavily one way or the other if that was the case (otherwise they would change their prediction methods) since there are a host of reasons to both under and over predict. Also, Disney has more access to data for rider wait times than any other park out there. It would be fair to assume they would be the most accurate, but my totally unscientific observations is they are among the worst of the parks I have visited at posted vs. actual wait times (note I've not been to Universal in 20 years so I've got no comparison there).

I don't know enough of how Disney calculates wait times and how they are inputted in to the system. There is a human element to it and I'm not sure how much they add or take away based on wanting to crowd control etc.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I don't know enough of how Disney calculates wait times and how they are inputted in to the system. There is a human element to it and I'm not sure how much they add or take away based on wanting to crowd control etc.

@lentesta literally has people measuring wait times in the parks:

From Len:

• The average posted wait is 45 minutes
• 84% of the time the actual is lower than the posted wait, by ~14 minutes
• 13% of the time the actual is higher than the actual wait, by ~8 minutes
• 3% of the time it's exactly the actual wait

I know Disney does not intentionally inflate wait times 84 percent of the time to sell LLs, but Len's data does prove Disney has no idea how to measure/calculate wait times.

What's worse? Total incompetence or greed?

Disney should sign up for Touringplans.com and simply scrape Len's data and use that.

 

[LSLS]

I don't know enough of how Disney calculates wait times and how they are inputted in to the system. There is a human element to it and I'm not sure how much they add or take away based on wanting to crowd control etc.

Neither do I, but I'm old enough to remember the red cards to make sure they were accurate, which was then switched to use the RFID in the magic bands to help calculate them (which the other parks I've been to have no access to). They also know within the hour how many fast passes they can expect in a line (again, something other places don't have). So they either have all this data, and intentionally don't use any of it in favor of humans making guesses (who are a lot less accurate than I have been when I just look at the lines), or there is at least SOME intent to the wait times.

 

[UNCgolf]

Disney is stupid if they aren't intentionally inflating the wait times by at least 10-15 minutes.

Putting aside any talk about pushing to sell LLs... it's just good for customer satisfaction. You always want people to wait for a shorter amount of time than they expected, because that makes them happier, even if only a little. If they have to wait longer than expected, though, that makes people angry.

 

[JD80]

Neither do I, but I'm old enough to remember the red cards to make sure they were accurate, which was then switched to use the RFID in the magic bands to help calculate them (which the other parks I've been to have no access to). They also know within the hour how many fast passes they can expect in a line (again, something other places don't have). So they either have all this data, and intentionally don't use any of it in favor of humans making guesses (who are a lot less accurate than I have been when I just look at the lines), or there is at least SOME intent to the wait times.

Naturally there is input lag in update in wait times. If the wait time is 60m and it then becomes 30m. How long does it take to notice and prove that out? If a 60m wait becomes a 40m wait in the spam of 5 minutes, you don't change it right away because it might pop back up to 60m. You have to notice the change in times, observe that it has changed, and then post.

The worst thing to do would be to change wait times on the fly because guests are make decisions on where to go. Changes need to be consistent and reliable.

That being said there is intent with wait times, it's not entirely empirical. There are crowd control elements. If an area of the park is crowded you may want to keep wait times high even if they have lowered just to influence people to go to other parts of the park.

You can create expectations of a long lines at park open because even if it's walk on or 20m now you now by the end of the first hour it'll be longer.

I just don't think they are manipulating wait times to attempt to sell more LLs. People are buying them in droves as it is.

 

[DisneyCane]

Naturally there is input lag in update in wait times. If the wait time is 60m and it then becomes 30m. How long does it take to notice and prove that out? If a 60m wait becomes a 40m wait in the spam of 5 minutes, you don't change it right away because it might pop back up to 60m. You have to notice the change in times, observe that it has changed, and then post.

The worst thing to do would be to change wait times on the fly because guests are make decisions on where to go. Changes need to be consistent and reliable.

That being said there is intent with wait times, it's not entirely empirical. There are crowd control elements. If an area of the park is crowded you may want to keep wait times high even if they have lowered just to influence people to go to other parts of the park.

You can create expectations of a long lines at park open because even if it's walk on or 20m now you now by the end of the first hour it'll be longer.

I just don't think they are manipulating wait times to attempt to sell more LLs. People are buying them in droves as it is.

For ILL it would definitely be a motivator for sales. I would think that if the wait for RotR was posted at 85 minutes more people would be interested in ILL than if it was posted at 55 minutes.

 

[lewisc]

@lentesta literally has people measuring wait times in the parks:

From Len:

• The average posted wait is 45 minutes
• 84% of the time the actual is lower than the posted wait, by ~14 minutes
• 13% of the time the actual is higher than the actual wait, by ~8 minutes
• 3% of the time it's exactly the actual wait

I know Disney does not intentionally inflate wait times 84 percent of the time to sell LLs, but Len's data does prove Disney has no idea how to measure/calculate wait times.

What's worse? Total incompetence or greed?

Disney should sign up for Touringplans.com and simply scrape Len's data and use that.

84% of the guests waited less then the posted wait time . They were happy. 14% waited more then the posted wait time and weren't happy.

Rides seem to be stopping often; possibly due disabled boarding.

 

[Disstevefan1]

84% of the guests waited less then the posted wait time . They were happy. 14% waited more then the posted wait time and weren't happy.

Rides seem to be stopping often; possibly due disabled boarding.

I agree, for the folks in that 84 percent who decided not to purchase LL based on the accidentally inflated posted wait times, did wait less than what was posted and that's great.

 

[GhostHost1000]

He certainly kept it quiet.

I’m hoping my my Touring Plans subscription will include time travel soon.

I’d prefer to travel back in time when the parks were more enjoyable and less chaotic to plan for. Maybe he’ll add a Touring Plans Premier Pass

 

[lentesta]

84% of the guests waited less then the posted wait time . They were happy. 14% waited more then the posted wait time and weren't happy.

One of the issues with inflated wait times is that it doesn't allow guests to make informed decisions about how to best use their own time.

For example, let's say Peter Pan has a posted wait of 60 minutes and an actual wait of 45 minutes.

The term balking is used in queuing theory to describe a line that's longer than the customer is willing to wait.

So if a guest won't wait 60 minutes for Peter Pan but would wait 45 minutes, that bad information has caused the guest to miss out on experiencing Peter Pan, which they would have done if the correct information been presented.

These are contrived numbers, of course. But the idea is the same: Guests can't make the right decisions for themselves with the wrong data from Disney.

 

[JD80]

One of the issues with inflated wait times is that it doesn't allow guests to make informed decisions about how to best use their own time.

For example, let's say Peter Pan has a posted wait of 60 minutes and an actual wait of 45 minutes.

The term balking is used in queuing theory to describe a line that's longer than the customer is willing to wait.

So if a guest won't wait 60 minutes for Peter Pan but would wait 45 minutes, that bad information has caused the guest to miss out on experiencing Peter Pan, which they would have done if the correct information been presented.

These are contrived numbers, of course. But the idea is the same: Guests can't make the right decisions for themselves with the wrong data from Disney.

Question that I always ask is how much is Disney doing this on purpose to push people to other parts of a park? Thought I read an article about it 10 years ago or so.

 

[Disstevefan1]

One of the issues with inflated wait times is that it doesn't allow guests to make informed decisions about how to best use their own time.

For example, let's say Peter Pan has a posted wait of 60 minutes and an actual wait of 45 minutes.

The term balking is used in queuing theory to describe a line that's longer than the customer is willing to wait.

So if a guest won't wait 60 minutes for Peter Pan but would wait 45 minutes, that bad information has caused the guest to miss out on experiencing Peter Pan, which they would have done if the correct information been presented.

These are contrived numbers, of course. But the idea is the same: Guests can't make the right decisions for themselves with the wrong data from Disney.

Totally agree @lentesta . A huge problem is folks are making decisions based on Disney's flawed wait times whether it be balking or possibly purchasing LL.

 

[nickys]

One of the issues with inflated wait times is that it doesn't allow guests to make informed decisions about how to best use their own time.

For example, let's say Peter Pan has a posted wait of 60 minutes and an actual wait of 45 minutes.

The term balking is used in queuing theory to describe a line that's longer than the customer is willing to wait.

So if a guest won't wait 60 minutes for Peter Pan but would wait 45 minutes, that bad information has caused the guest to miss out on experiencing Peter Pan, which they would have done if the correct information been presented.

These are contrived numbers, of course. But the idea is the same: Guests can't make the right decisions for themselves with the wrong data from Disney.

@lentesta , have your team done any analysis of the inflated wait times in the last hour of park hours?

It would be interesting to see actual data around the often mentioned extra-inflated wait times then.

 

[ConfettiCupcake]

I think the idea of overinflated wait times, while once considered more of a pleasant surprise, became more problematic once Disney started directly charging for line skip access. I’d file it under ‘things that are hard to overlook when you’re paying’ alongside the other restrictions and flaws of the system that were in hindsight easier to swallow with FP- and +.