Lightning Lane Premier Pass

[Dranth]

The point is, in my opinion, Disney does whatever to come up with a wait time and it’s inflated a large majority of time. Folks on the boards want to think it’s pure coincidence that 84 percent of the time Disney over estimates wait times.

The important question is did that percentage change by a meaningful amount post paid line skip? If it has always been overinflated by around that much then the notion that Disney is inflating times to promote sales is not correct. My understanding is they have always overinflated times by similar amounts.

What I think people could argue is that Disney has less incentive than ever to try and be more accurate but if they had changed significantly there would already be a pile of lawsuits.

 

[JD80]

I think my only point of disagreement is that I think Disney COULD if it wanted to narrow down the wait times a bit more accurately. It would likely require devoting more resources and expenses to better dynamically tracking guests as they enter the line and then enter the ride. Likely adding in more magic band/ticket scanners as you enter ride, a certain midpoint, and the scan again right as you get on ride. I just don’t think, and it appears WDW doesn’t think there is any real value/roi on spending anything to get the wait times more accurate. A general number that is close but not less than the actual wait time, serves the purpose just fine.

Pretty much this.

 

[LSLS]

You're assuming Disney can determine an exact waiting time and is intentionally inflating it.
I think Disney has an idea, within a range, of the expected wait times. I'll agree Disney posts a wait time likely to be higher then likely. An accurate wait time, on average, suggests almost half the guests will be waiting longer then.posted

I 100% believe Disney COULD determine very close to exact wait times. They know how many LL's are coming, they know what time people are entering ques any time they have Magic Bands, and what time they get on rides, and how long dispatch times take.

 

[LSLS]

The important question is did that percentage change by a meaningful amount post paid line skip? If it has always been overinflated by around that much then the notion that Disney is inflating times to promote sales is not correct. My understanding is they have always overinflated times by similar amounts.

What I think people could argue is that Disney has less incentive than ever to try and be more accurate but if they had changed significantly there would already be a pile of lawsuits.

I will say, I'm not sure they have changed this for LL. Hey @lentesta, have you ever taken your data and looked at the difference of wait time vs. posted by year? Has it gotten better or worse, and is there a point it started to get really bad? Personal experience, I really noticed it badly the first time in like 2019.

 

[JD80]

I 100% believe Disney COULD determine very close to exact wait times. They know how many LL's are coming, they know what time people are entering ques any time they have Magic Bands, and what time they get on rides, and how long dispatch times take.

They would need extra equipment and software to track all of that stuff. I'm sure they've tested that before and found that it's not worth the cost of maintaining all of it since what they do is accurate enough.

Also, sometimes too much information for a guest is a bad thing. For example, if you are saying your wait times are accurate to the minute, and because of the nature of humans in a queue they often are 5-10m longer than posted - can you imagine the complaints and backup at guest relations? You know that would happen.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The important question is did that percentage change by a meaningful amount post paid line skip? If it has always been overinflated by around that much then the notion that Disney is inflating times to promote sales is not correct. My understanding is they have always overinflated times by similar amounts.

What I think people could argue is that Disney has less incentive than ever to try and be more accurate but if they had changed significantly there would already be a pile of lawsuits.

You bring up a good point. Wait times have always been inflated in my experience.

Back in the red card days, they probably had good measurements but still padded the times a little to make the guests happy that the actual wait was shorter than the posted wait.

I guess the difference today is the posted wait times are way off post red card, and they have less incentive to make it better because making it better could result in less LLs sold.

 

[LSLS]

They would need extra equipment and software to track all of that stuff. I'm sure they've tested that before and found that it's not worth the cost of maintaining all of it since what they do is accurate enough.

Also, sometimes too much information for a guest is a bad thing. For example, if you are saying your wait times are accurate to the minute, and because of the nature of humans in a queue they often are 5-10m longer than posted - can you imagine the complaints and backup at guest relations? You know that would happen.

Unless I'm mistaking, this is how it was done years ago. First, there were those red cards, then once they gave out magic bands, they had readers in the lines that helped them determine lengths. If so, then I doubt they turned those off, or couldn't get it up and running. I highly doubt it's some large investment. I also don't think they need to promote it being accurate to the minute at all. All I'm saying is that my personal experience, they are the most inaccurate of the parks I've been to in the last 5ish years by a pretty good amount, and I think it's intentional (whether they have the data, or they simply don't collect it at this point). Maybe it's improved a great deal the last few years and I just hit a bad day since we are only there a day or two a year at this point, but when we went a ton from 2019-Covid, it was crazy how inaccurate it had gotten (at least the times we were there).

 

[JD80]

Unless I'm mistaking, this is how it was done years ago. First, there were those red cards, then once they gave out magic bands, they had readers in the lines that helped them determine lengths. If so, then I doubt they turned those off, or couldn't get it up and running. I highly doubt it's some large investment. I also don't think they need to promote it being accurate to the minute at all. All I'm saying is that my personal experience, they are the most inaccurate of the parks I've been to in the last 5ish years by a pretty good amount, and I think it's intentional (whether they have the data, or they simply don't collect it at this point). Maybe it's improved a great deal the last few years and I just hit a bad day since we are only there a day or two a year at this point, but when we went a ton from 2019-Covid, it was crazy how inaccurate it had gotten (at least the times we were there).

I thought I read that the readers were inaccurate and were problematic/didn't work well.

 

[lentesta]

I will say, I'm not sure they have changed this for LL. Hey @lentesta, have you ever taken your data and looked at the difference of wait time vs. posted by year? Has it gotten better or worse, and is there a point it started to get really bad? Personal experience, I really noticed it badly the first time in like 2019.

I can ask our team.

 

[lentesta]

I thought I read that the readers were inaccurate and were problematic/didn't work well.

That's what I heard: a third of the data they collected wasn't usable, and nobody knew which third.

 

[peter11435]

They would need extra equipment and software to track all of that stuff. I'm sure they've tested that before and found that it's not worth the cost of maintaining all of it since what they do is accurate enough.

They already have equipment that does all of that.

 

[nickys]

That's what I heard: a third of the data they collected wasn't usable, and nobody knew which third.

I don’t know which emoji to use. All seem appropriate…..

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

They already have equipment that does all of that.

Each ride has equipment that you scan in when you enter the que/ride.

I have seen some that have a second scan point, usually newer/lightening lane type rides, but certainly not all of them.

I don't recall ANY ride that does a scan of every rider when the leave the ride, and go into the ride vehicle.

Your going to need at least the first and third of those things to do any analysis of wait time from when you enter line to get onto ride. I would argue to make the data significant you are going to want an interim read to, maybe at the point when LL and GA merge, so you can see effects of LL time on GA line time. WDW has no where near all that equipment currently installed on all its rides to do that.

 

[monothingie]

I 100% believe Disney COULD determine very close to exact wait times. They know how many LL's are coming, they know what time people are entering ques any time they have Magic Bands, and what time they get on rides, and how long dispatch times take.

Considering that a significant portion of guests have a wearable tracking bracelet affixed to their wrists, I would wager that they could very accurately track guest wait times.

I would imagine that the posted wait reflects the wait time derived from guest movement in the queue, plus a MOE percentage to act as a buffer.

Higher actual wait times than posted wait times - Annoy guests and sell less LL.
Lower actual wait times than posted wait times - Allows Disney to exceed guest expectations and sell more LL.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Considering that a significant portion of guests have a wearable tracking bracelet affixed to their wrists, I would wager that they could very accurately track guest wait times.

I would imagine that the posted wait reflects the wait time derived from guest movement in the queue, plus a MOE percentage to act as a buffer.

Higher actual wait times than posted wait times - Annoy guests and sell less LL.
Lower actual wait times than posted wait times - Allows Disney to exceed guest expectations and sell more LL.

This.

Also how much more would Disney have to spend, and what impacts it has on the line (multiple scan points in line i assume will have a negative impact on the line itself) to increase the accuracy of the wait times by what percentage?

I mean i don't think we are really seeing wait times being off by huge amounts of time. I mean are people experiencing, wait time was listed as 120 minutes and it turned out to be 20min? Sure i have experienced times where it said 30min and it was 20, or even 15 (and i agree with mono, when that does happen, i don't know anyone who gets upset when they waited less.) I can't think of any objective/business reason to go and spend alot of money, to get the accuracy tightened up to say +/- 5min vs 15/20Min

 

[monothingie]

I mean i don't think we are really seeing wait times being off by huge amounts of time. I mean are people experiencing, wait time was listed as 120 minutes and it turned out to be 20min? Sure i have experienced times where it said 30min and it was 20, or even 15 (and i agree with mono, when that does happen, i don't know anyone who gets upset when they waited later.) I can't think of any objective/business reason to go and spend alot of money, to get the accuracy tightened up to say +/- 5min vs 15/20Min

It's been my experience that:
Posted 90 - Actual: 65-75
Posted 60 - Actual: 35-45
Posted 30 - Actual 15-20
Posted 15 - Actual 5-10
Posted 10 - Walk on.

 

[peter11435]

Each ride has equipment that you scan in when you enter the que/ride.

I have seen some that have a second scan point, usually newer/lightening lane type rides, but certainly not all of them.

I don't recall ANY ride that does a scan of every rider when the leave the ride, and go into the ride vehicle.

Your going to need at least the first and third of those things to do any analysis of wait time from when you enter line to get onto ride. I would argue to make the data significant you are going to want an interim read to, maybe at the point when LL and GA merge, so you can see effects of LL time on GA line time. WDW has no where near all that equipment currently installed on all its rides to do that.

Nearly every attraction has long range readers scanning every guest with magic bands and Bluetooth enabled phones at various points throughout the queues. If you’re wearing a magic band they know what time you entered the queue and what time you boarded/left the attraction.

 

[Disstevefan1]

This.

Also how much more would Disney have to spend, and what impacts it has on the line (multiple scan points in line i assume will have a negative impact on the line itself) to increase the accuracy of the wait times by what percentage?

I mean i don't think we are really seeing wait times being off by huge amounts of time. I mean are people experiencing, wait time was listed as 120 minutes and it turned out to be 20min? Sure i have experienced times where it said 30min and it was 20, or even 15 (and i agree with mono, when that does happen, i don't know anyone who gets upset when they waited less.) I can't think of any objective/business reason to go and spend alot of money, to get the accuracy tightened up to say +/- 5min vs 15/20Min

Iger really wants Disney to be a technology company more than a entertainment company, so he should want to invest in stuff like this

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

It's been my experience that:
Posted 90 - Actual: 65-75
Posted 60 - Actual: 35-45
Posted 30 - Actual 15-20
Posted 15 - Actual 5-10
Posted 10 - Walk on.

Those numbers seem pretty reasonable to me, in a I have no data on my own, but feels not far off.

So based on those numbers, you have the following delta between posted vs. Actual.

Posted 90 - Actual: 25-15
Posted 60 - Actual: 25-15
Posted 30 - Actual 15-10
Posted 15 - Actual 10-5

If you assume that spending money/time on this project, you can cut the delta in half, you would be getting an improvement in posted wait times of

Posted 90 - Actual: 12.5-7.5
Posted 60 - Actual: 12.5-7.5
Posted 30 - Actual 7.5-5
Posted 15 - Actual 5-2.5

I just don't see a ton of value in spending anything, let alone significant money, to narrow the gap

 

[JD80]

I don’t know which emoji to use. All seem appropriate…..

The only way it would really work reliably is if people in standby tapped in at entry and tapped in as they got into the ride vehicle. You would have to do it often enough to correlate decreases and increases to wait times.

RFID chips, especially cheap ones, are very inaccurate. You could potentially pick up chips from people leaving the attractions or being on the attractions. Or reading twice.

Just sayin.