Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[G00fyDad]

Thanks! Also, next year may be different in terms of crowds because people have "calmed down" getting their covid trips in. At least that's my hope.

I hope it calms down before this October. TP has already bumped up the crowd predictions for my trip week by 1 or 2 points for each park.

 

[Darstarr]

If anyone is there or following crowds this week - let me know how crowd levels/availability looks? This is the week we are looking at next year. The week after Easter and I thought it wouldn't be so crowded, but park reservations are gone for a lot for resort guests.

thanks!

I think reservations are gone because of GotG previews. As soon as the dates were announced I watched the calendar go from green to yellow.

 

[Jeff4272]

This wasn’t true for me. Fwiw.

This is how it works......you can make a selection for a park where you dont have reservations for and options for 2pm or later show up

 

[Disney4Lyfe]

This is how it works......you can make a selection for a park where you dont have reservations for and options for 2pm or later show up

Maybe, but it was showing me all times. Not just 2p or later

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I put a source in the OP

I'm not using anecdotal data... I'm using computer generated data that I trust and is available to everyone. Where do you get your numbers?

Okay.

If you want to trust this source, have at it.
Please report back on your success rate of scoring a Slinky G+ pass at 7:05am or later, because I would like to be wrong.

If I delve into your source, when asked how they collect data, they don't give any details, "The data you see plotted, statistics in etc, is pulled directly from Disney. Any user reported wait times are displayed separately." IMO, that = tracking MDE, not actual wait times, or actual booking of G+ passes.

We all know MDE Tip Board waits are not reality. They are consistently inflated, especially in the morning and evening. Often wildly inflated.

The forum portion of your source is nearly non-existent. It has- as of 4/25/22 at 10am- a grand total of 41 posts. Of the 41, half come from the webmaster.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

If anyone is there or following crowds this week - let me know how crowd levels/availability looks? This is the week we are looking at next year. The week after Easter and I thought it wouldn't be so crowded, but park reservations are gone for a lot for resort guests.

thanks!

When it comes to Easter, there is considerable variability from year to year because Easter is not a fixed date.
Easter 2022 = April 17
Easter 2023 = April 9
Easter 2016 = March 27
Easter 2019 = April 21

Weather-wise, early April is a great time to visit WDW. Late April gets a little warmer.

Historically, if Easter falls late, then crowds tend to drop off shortly after Easter. When Easter falls in March, WDW is still crowded through mid-April.

But even that is far from a complete picture of what might happen next year. There are many unknowns.

 

[dreday3]

When it comes to Easter, there is considerable variability from year to year because Easter is not a fixed date.
Easter 2022 = April 17
Easter 2023 = April 9
Easter 2016 = March 27
Easter 2019 = April 21

Weather-wise, early April is a great time to visit WDW. Late April gets a little warmer.

Historically, if Easter falls late, then crowds tend to drop off shortly after Easter. When Easter falls in March, WDW is still crowded through mid-April.

But even that is far from a complete picture of what might happen next year. There are many unknowns.

Easter is April 9th next year, we're coming around 18th. Hopefully late enough to miss "most" of the spring breakers!

It will be fine, whatever the case.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

This wasn’t true for me. Fwiw.

When you looked up (supposed) available times, or when you actually booked a G+pass?

I don't have a park pass for today, but I can still look at the Tip Board for today. It currently says G+ passes for the 12:30pm B and B show are available, even though I don't have a park pass and have not booked G+.

Are you saying you actually booked a G+ pass in another park that had a pre-2pm return time?

 

[Disney4Lyfe]

When you looked up (supposed) available times, or when you actually booked a G+pass?

I don't have a park pass for today, but I can still look at the Tip Board for today. It currently says G+ passes for the 12:30pm B and B show are available, even though I don't have a park pass and have not booked G+.

Are you saying you actually booked a G+ pass in another park that had a pre-2pm return time?

No, when I looked for them. So I see the disconnect. I’d have to attempt to book, then be given times? How does that even work?

 

[nickys]

Maybe, but it was showing me all times. Not just 2p or later

If you’d tried to book one of them it would automatically have moved it to a time after 2pm.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

No, when I looked for them. So I see the disconnect. I’d have to attempt to book, then be given times? How does that even work?

If you tried to book a time for your 2nd park before 2:00, the system wouldn't allow you to do it and would automatically bump you to later available times. When I stayed in December, we were going to use G+ at DHS, but couldn't even attempt to purchase until 7 AM on the nose because of a "glitch" that only affected APs. So we booked an ILL for Remy instead and we're only able to choose from times after 2 PM since our reservation was for DHS that day.

 

[nickys]

Okay.

If you want to trust this source, have at it.
Please report back on your success rate of scoring a Slinky G+ pass at 7:05am or later, because I would like to be wrong.

If I delve into your source, when asked how they collect data, they don't give any details, "The data you see plotted, statistics in etc, is pulled directly from Disney. Any user reported wait times are displayed separately." IMO, that = tracking MDE, not actual wait times, or actual booking of G+ passes.

We all know MDE Tip Board waits are not reality. They are consistently inflated, especially in the morning and evening. Often wildly inflated.

The forum portion of your source is nearly non-existent. It has- as of 4/25/22 at 10am- a grand total of 41 posts. Of the 41, half come from the webmaster.

People have definitely managed to pick up Slinky at later times. The Touring Plans forum have numerous reports of people using @mikejs78 ’s collated data of drop times successfully. That’s why blog posts refer to those drop times - because they have been shown to be successful.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Easter is April 9th next year, we're coming around 18th. Hopefully late enough to miss "most" of the spring breakers!

It will be fine, whatever the case.

Yes, that late tends to = a drop off - especially towards the very end of April.

You can also see a clue if you look at WDW rack rate pricing for next year as to when WDW expects to see a drop off.

This year at ASM, there was a price drop on April 24= 161. (Easter through 4/22 prices for Standard room was $247, but 4/22= Saturday. 4/23 = Sunday- small price drop to = $200, but the 'season' change is on 4/24.

That pricing season runs 4/24 - 5/21. It is one of the lower pricing categories, at least for rack rates.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

No, when I looked for them. So I see the disconnect. I’d have to attempt to book, then be given times? How does that even work?

What we see before we book, and when we book are two different things.

You have to actually book it to see what time you get, but it will be after 2pm. G+ is - at least- consistent there in this circumstance. (I think.)

 

[Disney4Lyfe]

What we see before we book, and when we book are two different things.

You have to actually book it to see what time you get, but it will be after 2pm. G+ is - at least- consistent there in this circumstance. (I think.)

Does it give you options? Or you book what they show and hope the return time is acceptable?

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Does it give you options? Or you book what they show and hope the return time is acceptable?

With ILL's, you get some options when you actually go to pay for it. With G+ passes it is after 2pm but otherwise random.

It seemed to me, early in the day the jumps were wild, but in the middle of the day actual pass times were closer to what we were initially offered.

So like right now, at 1pm, if you see a 3pm pass, it is somewhat likely you will actually be able to book a 3pm pass. At least for MK.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

People have definitely managed to pick up Slinky at later times. The Touring Plans forum have numerous reports of people using @mikejs78 ’s collated data of drop times successfully. That’s why blog posts refer to those drop times - because they have been shown to be successful.

I would like to be wrong on this, because it totally bites.

If a bunch of people here report actually being able to book Slinky passes at 7:15am or later, that will be good news.

If you don't get a G+ pass at 7am, you're stuck refreshing and refreshing. And all the time you're refreshing....you're gambling...and the longer you wait, the lower your odds of success, as you watch the return times creep later and later for the tier2 passes, but you keep hoping for a hit!

AND, all the time I was refreshing was time I wasn't able to get ready (dressed) to actually go to the park. HS opened at 7:30am.

I actually did have SDD - appear- to pop up as available at about 7:07am, but it was only a phantom. I instantly tried to book it, but it disappeared. And I moved quickly!

Also, the hotel quick serve opened at 7am.

In that half hour, we had to sacrifice something: get passes, get dressed, go to the park, or buy something for breakfast? (Okay, I actually had snacks in the room. I knew I couldn't actually hope to eat breakfast in the morning. Ha!)

 

[Jeff4272]

I would like to be wrong on this, because it totally bites.

If a bunch of people here report actually being able to book Slinky passes at 7:15am or later, that will be good news.

If you don't get a G+ pass at 7am, you're stuck refreshing and refreshing. And all the time you're refreshing....you're gambling...and the longer you wait, the lower your odds of success, as you watch the return times creep later and later for the tier2 passes, but you keep hoping for a hit!

AND, all the time I was refreshing was time I wasn't able to get ready (dressed) to actually go to the park. HS opened at 7:30am.

I actually did have SDD - appear- to pop up as available at about 7:07am, but it was only a phantom. I instantly tried to book it, but it disappeared. And I moved quickly!

Also, the hotel quick serve opened at 7am.

In that half hour, we had to sacrifice something: get passes, get dressed, go to the park, or buy something for breakfast? (Okay, I actually had snacks in the room. I knew I couldn't actually hope to eat breakfast in the morning. Ha!)

one of the many flaws of Genie (-)

 

[nickys]

I would like to be wrong on this, because it totally bites.

If a bunch of people here report actually being able to book Slinky passes at 7:15am or later, that will be good news.

If you don't get a G+ pass at 7am, you're stuck refreshing and refreshing. And all the time you're refreshing....you're gambling...and the longer you wait, the lower your odds of success, as you watch the return times creep later and later for the tier2 passes, but you keep hoping for a hit!

AND, all the time I was refreshing was time I wasn't able to get ready (dressed) to actually go to the park. HS opened at 7:30am.

I actually did have SDD - appear- to pop up as available at about 7:07am, but it was only a phantom. I instantly tried to book it, but it disappeared. And I moved quickly!

Also, the hotel quick serve opened at 7am.

In that half hour, we had to sacrifice something: get passes, get dressed, go to the park, or buy something for breakfast? (Okay, I actually had snacks in the room. I knew I couldn't actually hope to eat breakfast in the morning. Ha!)

Thing is with the documented drop times you know the point at which to be ready to “strike” so to speak. It’s not guaranteed of course and it might not calm the nerves much.

I know that as my trip approaches I’ll be monitoring those drop times so I know when that second batch is released.

 

[WDWFREAK53]

I would like to be wrong on this, because it totally bites.

If a bunch of people here report actually being able to book Slinky passes at 7:15am or later, that will be good news.

If you don't get a G+ pass at 7am, you're stuck refreshing and refreshing. And all the time you're refreshing....you're gambling...and the longer you wait, the lower your odds of success, as you watch the return times creep later and later for the tier2 passes, but you keep hoping for a hit!

AND, all the time I was refreshing was time I wasn't able to get ready (dressed) to actually go to the park. HS opened at 7:30am.

I actually did have SDD - appear- to pop up as available at about 7:07am, but it was only a phantom. I instantly tried to book it, but it disappeared. And I moved quickly!

Also, the hotel quick serve opened at 7am.

In that half hour, we had to sacrifice something: get passes, get dressed, go to the park, or buy something for breakfast? (Okay, I actually had snacks in the room. I knew I couldn't actually hope to eat breakfast in the morning. Ha!)

Those vacation mornings sound so enjoyable and stress-free!