Does anyone know a figure for what the percentage of guests is that come from offsite hotels and locals? In reality that defines the limit of how far off their staffing projections could be. They know about everyone else.
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Len Testa Crowd Analysis
- Thread starter GeneralKnowledge
- Start date
You are right, they need more capacity. However they could massively expand magic kingdom to the west, build in the area leading to Rafiki, and expand HS too or as you say build a 5th gate. I used to think a 5th gate was the best way to go but now I am not sure.
winstongator
Well-Known Member
Take Pandora: has its added capacity translated to shorter waits for Everest? Compare Saturday of weekend before Prez day weekend 2018 & 2017...75 min in 2018 vs. 55 min in 2017. My hypothesis is that the attendance at AK has grown at least as fast as the capacity increase from Pandora. NRJ holds about 324 riders per hour of wait, and FoP 432. If NRJ has 1.5 hr wait, FoP 2.5 hrs, that's 1566 guests in line. Say an equal number eating & shopping, so 3k added capacity. x365 = around a million. I could easily see AK's attendance being up almost that much, not in 2017, but maybe half that in 2017 (Pandora opened in May), and close to a million more in 2018.
I looked into this stuff because I wondered: how many more people will go to HS because of SWGE?
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
I’m concerned by how they choose to develop their land holdings. They really don’t have the blessing of size they once had. The outside world encroaches on the resort in a way it hasn’t before.
Increase capacity at the existing parks, expand land holdings by 5000-10,000 acres, then build a fifth gate.
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winstongator
Well-Known Member
I'm a terrible gambler, and bad prognosticator in general, but I'd bet that overall WDW attendance will be at least 5M guests per year higher in 2021 than in 2016, and a high-end estimate of 10M more.
http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?t=97030
Had MK attendance bumping a great deal for the 25th.
http://www.mouseowners.com/forums/showthread.php?t=97030
Had MK attendance bumping a great deal for the 25th.
winstongator
Well-Known Member
They are effectively building a 5th gate over the past few years and a few years in the future. Pandora, TSL, SWGE, Tron, Ratatouille, Guardians, Frozen Ever After, and 7DMT. It's a mishmash, but would be one heckuva park.
Jenny72
Well-Known Member
I wonder what it would take for this trend to hit a wall. It's clear from that attendance chart that attendance at WDW ebbs and flows (and of course, the ever-increasing attendance is just a projection, even though it makes it look like it's a sure trend; it may or may not turn out that way if there are significant world events, economy shifts, etc.).
What would it take for TDO to address the wait time and overcrowding situation? Massive complaints? Dropoffs in profits? Fights breaking out in line? None of the above?
What would it take for TDO to address the wait time and overcrowding situation? Massive complaints? Dropoffs in profits? Fights breaking out in line? None of the above?
Nubs70
Well-Known Member
Adding additional rides within the existing square footage will only relieve the feeling of congestion if more people are waiting in the qeues. The number of people in the parks.are.reaching the point where the western sense of personal space is being violated. When two unknown persons are within 18" of each other, both people feel intruded upon.
MM+ aims to keep people out of the queue which adds to the uncomfortable feeling of congestion. Only a fifth gate will allow for additional attractions and reduce the feeling of congestion.
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
So, my take away about MM+ is:
1. It provides the data Disney needs to staff so that most stand by lines have a 60 min. wait even during the slow period.
2. FP+ rolls all those not willing to wait an hour for a spinner out into the walkways waiting their next FP+.
Both of those contribute to the feeling of over crowding.
1. It provides the data Disney needs to staff so that most stand by lines have a 60 min. wait even during the slow period.
2. FP+ rolls all those not willing to wait an hour for a spinner out into the walkways waiting their next FP+.
Both of those contribute to the feeling of over crowding.
Whenever attendance dipped, within a few years it was up to where it was before and then increased for several years after that. It has pretty much increased regularly over the past five year, even with faster-than-inflation price increases. And the current economy is roaring. It will go up, and probably more than the 1% per year projection.
Attendance is up. With no kids, I purposely seek and go the most off-peak times of the year. And the off-peak times this past year were very crowded compared to just 3 years ago (though nothing like summer or a holiday week).
People keep blaming reduced staffing for long lines, and yes, that does contribute, but only to a point. I'm sure 3 years ago they also reduced staffing in the fall and winter. However, you can't reduce-staff and artificially slow down the People Mover or the Haunted Mansion or the Treehouse or Magic Carpets or Peter Pan or PhilharMagic.
During the off-peak times you'll find weeks where Disney doesn't have any rooms. A conspiracy on their part? I doubt they could get Marriott to go along with that chicanery and yet the Swolphin is also booked solid the same times.
It's more crowded. We're hitting the tipping point more often. Everyone knows they hit the tipping point and lines balloon during the summer. And during the summer, no one is blaming that on understaffing. With attendance up and up and up, it is not surprising the tipping point is being hit also during off-peak times... which are hardly 'off peak' at all any more.
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
Pandora was an E ticket driver of attendance. The problem is the rest of the park can't handle the additional crowds. The parks need more quality C and D tickets to eat up the crowds without bringing in huge additional numbers.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Who's gonna work this fifth gate? And what stock analyst is gonna support the $3+ billion dollar initial outlay when the amount of time off by the wdw customer is declining?
I'm not saying that it's a "big factor"...I'm saying It's really the only one.
Jenny72
Well-Known Member
I think we're all in agreement that attendance is up. The difference is that the wait times are up *more* than they should be. As Len Testa pointed out, wait times are up 60% in some cases. There's no way attendance is up 60%. So this is a case of both things being true: cuts in staffing and increases in attendance. A perfect storm.
And while it's true that the People Mover probably runs the same amount of people regardless of staffing, the wait times on it are up because of people being driven away from high waits at other attractions that are running at lower capacity. For instance, that's why we fled there. We wandered around for a while looking at 120 min for Small World, etc. and were going to leave the park, but then I said, let's just ride the People Mover since there's never a wait there....
If attendance is as high and wonderful as a lot of people are arguing here (which may well be the case), why isn't Disney celebrating by rolling out every staff person they have, adding staff, adding street shows, parades, etc., etc.??
And while it's true that the People Mover probably runs the same amount of people regardless of staffing, the wait times on it are up because of people being driven away from high waits at other attractions that are running at lower capacity. For instance, that's why we fled there. We wandered around for a while looking at 120 min for Small World, etc. and were going to leave the park, but then I said, let's just ride the People Mover since there's never a wait there....
If attendance is as high and wonderful as a lot of people are arguing here (which may well be the case), why isn't Disney celebrating by rolling out every staff person they have, adding staff, adding street shows, parades, etc., etc.??
The_Jobu
Well-Known Member
If you'd like to use groceries as a comparison, it's more like a grocery store where people have to book their checkouts ahead of time and you know the day will be a 5/10 but you staff it 2/10 because it's cheaper and the shoppers still show up.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Excellent
MuteSuperstar
Well-Known Member
I don't agree with this narrative at all, especially for the average middle class person, but that's for another thread. Otherwise you make a lot of excellent points. It just seems to be a perfect storm of many different factors right now. But I remain convinced there are some behind the scenes shenanigans going on and that the customer experience has fallen way way down the list of things the hallowed C-suite geniuses care about, as is the case in most other large companies now.
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That's still faulty math.
Case A
- A ride has a throughput of 1,000 pph.
- Last year, there were 1,100 pph showing up to ride it. So, for every hour, the line grew by 100 people. At the end of 10 hour day, there were 1,000 people on line.
- This year, there is a 10% growth in attendance. So, for every hour, there were 1,210 people showing up to ride it. Every hour, the line grew by 210 people. At the end of a 10 hour day, there were 2,100 people on line.
- Even though overall attendance grew by 10% over the year, the line was 110% greater than the previous year.
Case B
- A ride has a throughput of 1,000 pph.
- Last year, there were 1,100 pph showing up to ride it. So, for every hour, the line grew by 100 people. At the end of 10 hour day, there were 1,000 people on line.
- This year, there is a 20% growth in attendance. So, for every hour, there were 1,320 people showing up to ride it. Every hour, the line grew by 320 people. At the end of a 10 hour day, there were 3,200 people on line.
- Even though overall attendance grew by 20% over the year, the line was 310% greater than the previous year.
So, Len is seeing wait times increased by 60%?....
Case C
- A ride has a throughput of 1,000 pph.
- Last year, there were 1,100 pph showing up to ride it. So, for every hour, the line grew by 100 people. At the end of 10 hour day, there were 1,000 people on line.
- This year, there is a 5.4% growth in attendance. So, for every hour, there were 1,160 people showing up to ride it. Every hour, the line grew by 160 people. At the end of a 10 hour day, there were 1,600 people on line.
- Even though overall attendance grew only by 5.4% over the year, the line was 60% greater than the previous year.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Not the best comparison though because disney was in its largest phase of significant additions in that period and the "vacation length wall" hadn't been met...it was when DAK opened
xdan0920
Think for yourselfer
Len addressed this. Sure attendance is up. But wait times are up exponentially more. This is a strategy by TDO to staff to the absolute minimum. Wait times and attendance should correlate. They aren’t even coming close. The whole point of @lentesta was saying on the podcast is to figure out why this is happening.
This is well summarized. Simple, to the point, and damning.