Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[MisterPenguin]

Wait times and attendance should correlate.

Ah, you just missed my post showing the correlation is not linear. When you increase overall park attendance, you're not taking all those extra people and putting them on the ride and in line. They all go in the line if you're already past the tipping point. The lines increase exponentially at that point.

And if you're no where near the tipping point, then the extra people have no effect on the lines.

It's not a linear correlation.

 

[mikejs78]

If you'd like to use groceries as a comparison, it's more like a grocery store where people have to book their checkouts ahead of time and you know the day will be a 5/10 but you staff it 2/10 because it's cheaper and the shoppers still show up.

I'm not convinced that FP+ has as much of an impact as people think. Sure, it has some. But the reality is, if everyone was using FastPasses, there wouldn't be 2-3 hour (or more) waits for FoP, 90-120 min waits for 7DMT... There's a finite number of FastPasses, and they don't represent all of capacity. I'd argue that for the supermarket analogy they estimate a 5/10 based on prebookings and staff for that (or maybe for 4/10 to save a little $ and they think they can absorb the extra capacity with slightly longer times), but more people who don't prebook show up, enough to make it a 6/10 day, but because it was staffed for 5/10 or 4/10, it effectively makes it feel like 8/10 (because it's not linear like @MisterPenguin points out).

 

[lazyboy97o]

That's still faulty math.

Case A

• A ride has a throughput of 1,000 pph.
• Last year, there were 1,100 pph showing up to ride it. So, for every hour, the line grew by 100 people. At the end of 10 hour day, there were 1,000 people on line.
• This year, there is a 10% growth in attendance. So, for every hour, there were 1,210 people showing up to ride it. Every hour, the line grew by 210 people. At the end of a 10 hour day, there were 2,100 people on line.
• Even though overall attendance grew by 10% over the year, the line was 110% greater than the previous year.

Case B

• A ride has a throughput of 1,000 pph.
• Last year, there were 1,100 pph showing up to ride it. So, for every hour, the line grew by 100 people. At the end of 10 hour day, there were 1,000 people on line.
• This year, there is a 20% growth in attendance. So, for every hour, there were 1,320 people showing up to ride it. Every hour, the line grew by 320 people. At the end of a 10 hour day, there were 3,200 people on line.
• Even though overall attendance grew by 20% over the year, the line was 310% greater than the previous year.

There is absolutely *not* a linear growth of overall attendance compared to the overall number of people on line. Once you pass the tipping point the percent growth of all people, those on the rides plus those in the queue, wind up all in the queue.


So, Len is seeing wait times increased by 60%?....

Case C

• A ride has a throughput of 1,000 pph.
• Last year, there were 1,100 pph showing up to ride it. So, for every hour, the line grew by 100 people. At the end of 10 hour day, there were 1,000 people on line.
• This year, there is a 5.4% growth in attendance. So, for every hour, there were 1,160 people showing up to ride it. Every hour, the line grew by 160 people. At the end of a 10 hour day, there were 1,600 people on line.
• Even though overall attendance grew only by 5.4% over the year, the line was 60% greater than the previous year.

You’re conveniently ignoring that throughput has been measured.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You’re conveniently ignoring that throughput has been measured.

Yes it has been measured. How does that change any of the examples I gave.

I'm not doing anything "conveniently". Are you accusing me of purposely cooking the numbers?

 

[Jenny72]

Regardless of linearity, etc., it seems to me that Disney *knows* all of this math and should adjust accordingly. They're not idiots, right? Why is the park being run this way? This is not just one aberration when a million people bought tickets at the door by surprise. Presumably they know the math better than we do but are not using it to enhance the experience. The trend is that attendance is going up. This is not the time to be slowing capacity at the rides. But they are doing it.

 

[The_Jobu]

I'm not convinced that FP+ has as much of an impact as people think. Sure, it has some. But the reality is, if everyone was using FastPasses, there wouldn't be 2-3 hour (or more) waits for FoP, 90-120 min waits for 7DMT... There's a finite number of FastPasses, and they don't represent all of capacity. I'd argue that for the supermarket analogy they estimate a 5/10 based on prebookings and staff for that (or maybe for 4/10 to save a little $ and they think they can absorb the extra capacity with slightly longer times), but more people who don't prebook show up, enough to make it a 6/10 day, but because it was staffed for 5/10 or 4/10, it effectively makes it feel like 8/10 (because it's not linear like @MisterPenguin points out).

I was unclear, I don't know what FP does to wait times, but I think between FP, hotel occupancy, restaurant reservations, collected data, etc they must have a pretty good idea how busy a park will be.

 

[mikejs78]

Regardless of linearity, etc., it seems to me that Disney *knows* all of this math and should adjust accordingly. They're not idiots, right? Why is the park being run this way? This is not just one aberration when a million people bought tickets at the door by surprise. Presumably they know the math better than we do but are not using it to enhance the experience. The trend is that attendance is going up. This is not the time to be slowing capacity at the rides. But they are doing it.

I don't think we can say with certainty that Disney knows the math. It may be that they thought they did, but turned out to be wrong.

 

[mikejs78]

I was unclear, I don't know what FP does to wait times, but I think between FP, hotel occupancy, restaurant reservations, collected data, etc they must have a pretty good idea how busy a park will be.

You're right - but any system like this isn't be perfect. If they're a little bit off in their estimates, it can lead to pretty extreme results.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Regardless of linearity, etc., it seems to me that Disney *knows* all of this math and should adjust accordingly. They're not idiots, right? Why is the park being run this way? This is not just one aberration when a million people bought tickets at the door by surprise. Presumably they know the math better than we do but are not using it to enhance the experience. The trend is that attendance is going up. This is not the time to be slowing capacity at the rides. But they are doing it.

When I went a few years ago in the off-peak season mid-winter and the place seemed empty and many of the rides were 'walk-ons', are you (or anyone else) implying that the parks were fully staffed back then? That both Dumbos and both PotC loading docks were being used and that is the reason why there were 'no lines'?

I don't know as a fact, but I'm pretty sure that Disney has been cutting back on staffing during off-peak for years. And it's doing the same now, but there are big lines now, which indicates that there has been a serious jump in attendance. Should WDW adjust and put on more staff now? Yes. But I don't think it's likely that WDW decided to reduce staffing at traditionally off-peak times beginning just now to create false illusions of crowdedness. The fault of WDW isn't that they just started this practice, the fault is that given the increased off-peak attendance, they should end it.

 

[The_Jobu]

You're right - but any system like this isn't be perfect. If they're a little bit off in their estimates, it can lead to pretty extreme results.

It could, that's true, I just find it hard to believe Disney doesn't have an idea what's going on and are just continually shocked by rising wait time averages.

 

[Jenny72]

I think I agree with you, Mr. Penguin! I'm not good at quoting yet.

But if they really can't figure out the math by now, I'd say they need to clean house and get some better numbers people. They should be experts at this! I always thought they were, much more so than Universal when they opened.

 

[xdan0920]

When I went a few years ago in the off-peak season mid-winter and the place seemed empty and many of the rides were 'walk-ons', are you (or anyone else) implying that the parks were fully staffed back then? That both Dumbos and both PotC loading docks were being used and that is the reason why there were 'no lines'?

I don't know as a fact, but I'm pretty sure that Disney has been cutting back on staffing during off-peak for years. And it's doing the same now, but there are big lines now, which indicates that there has been a serious jump in attendance. Should WDW adjust and put on more staff now? Yes. But I don't think it's likely that WDW decided to reduce staffing at traditionally off-peak times beginning just now to create false illusions of crowdedness. The fault of WDW isn't that they just started this practice, the fault is that given the increased off-peak attendance, they should end it.

How do you explain the sudden, huge, jump that is being talked about here though? You really think that many more people are now pulling kids from school that wait times are reaching summer numbers? What makes more sense? Disney purposely understaffing and not giving a toot about guest experience. Or thousands upon thousands of new guests all descending on WDW when they would normally not? And just starting this year?

I dunno. I’m just gonna ride with @lentesta on this. For him it’s not just message board banter. It’s his job, he knows what he’s talking about.

 

[larryz]

All I know is as being a local AP holder, popping over to a Disney park for the day is functionally useless.

So Disney says, "Thanks for the money, pal" and goes on catering to the one-time guests...

 

[Jenny72]

Not to mention that other guest experiences are being cut that you would expect during periods of peak attendance, such as parades. So it can't be the case that poor Disney is so overwhelmed by throngs that the rides can't keep up, and they're busy scrambling to make up for the lack. There's just no evidence (yet) of them making an effort to deal with this.

 

[larryz]

Regardless of linearity, etc., it seems to me that Disney *knows* all of this math and should adjust accordingly. They're not idiots, right? Why is the park being run this way? This is not just one aberration when a million people bought tickets at the door by surprise. Presumably they know the math better than we do but are not using it to enhance the experience. The trend is that attendance is going up. This is not the time to be slowing capacity at the rides. But they are doing it.

In "Roller Coaster Tycoon III," the program will periodically tell you to raise prices if the "peeps" keep saying the park is a really good value. In addition, if you cut back on park staff, the rides will eventually blow up, but people will still pay enormous gate prices just to get in.

More fodder to support that the suits are running WDW based on a master instance of "Disney World Tycoon III" running somewhere in the corporate offices...

 

[larryz]

You're right - but any system like this isn't be perfect. If they're a little bit off in their estimates, it can lead to pretty extreme results.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

They are effectively building a 5th gate over the past few years and a few years in the future. Pandora, TSL, SWGE, Tron, Ratatouille, Guardians, Frozen Ever After, and 7DMT. It's a mishmash, but would be one heckuva park.

That’s mostly replacing existing capacity. Only FoP and NRG are net capacity increases.

 

[mikejs78]

I dunno. I’m just gonna ride with @lentesta on this. For him it’s not just message board banter. It’s his job, he knows what he’s talking about.

All @lentesta is saying conclusively is they aren't running rides to full capacity. I'm not sure he even knows if the reduction in capacity is the same or different from previous January/February's...

It's one factor and it's an important one, but until/unless we know what attendance was this year vs previous years, we can't know for sure.

 

[MuteSuperstar]

That’s mostly replacing existing capacity. Only FoP and NRG are net capacity increases.

Agree, but Rat is too, no? They are keeping Impressions aren't they?

 

[EricsBiscuit]

Let's hope that rides are automated in the future so that we don't have to worry about staffing affecting our experience.