peter11435
Well-Known Member
Schedules are created 2-3 weeks out based on park hours and forecasted attendance. Staffing is adjusted in real time based on fluctuations in attendance.
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Len Testa Crowd Analysis
- Thread starter GeneralKnowledge
- Start date
1. I don’t subscribe to Touring Plans and never have.
2. It’s not that plain and simple. Touring Plans is going out and counting ride throughput. They’re running rides well below normal capacity despite long waits. If there is a 2+ hour wait for an E ticket. It better damn well be running at full capacity.
3. You say that MyMagic+ is making crowds unpredictable? That’s the opposite of reality. With MM+, Disney has a much better handle on attendance projections than they ever have before. They know how many fast passes are booked, they know how many rooms are filled, they know better than ever what kind of attendance to expect and ought to be staffing accordingly. Instead they are cutting back to save money, figuring if people are willing to wait in long lines when the park is busiest, why wouldn’t they be willing to wait just as long no matter how crowded it is.
I have yet to hear any suggestion by anyone other than Len what would cause January wait times to exceed those of the summer in previous years.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Crowding is not a direct function of attendance. But yes, let’s just attack Len instead of accepting two decades of work for inexplicable reasons.
themarchhare
Well-Known Member
While I do understand that Disney is self-adjusting staffing levels, I can also attest to the fact that the sheer physical number of people in the park also had to have been much higher than an average January. Travelled for a long weekend (one week after marathon weekend) Jan 18-22 and I was blown away. I'm a past CP & frequent visitor and I was shocked at how difficult it was to exit the park after HEA.
Ultimately, though, it's still a great time to travel: mild weather, less crowded resorts, and less pricey (for now).
And in regards to TP: the app including actual wait times vs. posted really was helpful and was alone worth the cheap price for annual membership.
Ultimately, though, it's still a great time to travel: mild weather, less crowded resorts, and less pricey (for now).
And in regards to TP: the app including actual wait times vs. posted really was helpful and was alone worth the cheap price for annual membership.
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
That's simply not true. The crowd calendars we're pretty accurate for most of 2017. Len is very transparent, you can go see every day how accurate they were down to a ride level. It was Jan / Feb 2018 where the crowd Calendar broke down, but since they tweaked it in mid-Feb, it's been pretty accurate again.
mikejs78
Well-Known Member
Although I'm sure you're right about it being more crowded, I don't think the HEA exit is a good comparison to past years. With Wishes, people would be dispersed throughout the park to see it. With HEA, because of the projections, everyone is on Main Street.
themarchhare
Well-Known Member
The rest of the park was still packed and this was just one of many examples from the trip of the parks having quite a few people. While I agree that Wishes definitely spread people out more, this doesn't take away from the fact that this was not your average January at WDW.
I feel like I see this every year. "Not your average January" "Not your average February" so on and so on.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Well...it's possible that the "breaking point"
On crowd control is aggregate attendance in the 50-52 mil range...that does seem to be the benchmark point...
But it is also possible that they are using the tech upgrade data to shave the costs, emboldened that the effect won't matter to the bottomline. People are being tracked and have opened their wallets to a string of gimmicks and price hikes for a solid decade...it only emboldens the wolf pack.
The one thing is that prebooked fastpasses may actually drive the waits up artificially...as in not having to get the paper tickets and having to be in the parks to see what the waits were often discouraged some from actually using the rides...and instead drove them to the giftshops...which was the Eisner way...
...I don't think they do as well their anymore...just a hunch.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Seems like everything is "unusual" these days, huh? Every Halloween or Christmas party is "unusually"
Crowded...every running event...every weekend in the winter...every day of food and wine...
MuteSuperstar
Well-Known Member
Pretty much how it's working at every big corp these days, including the one I toil for. Disney is actually kind of late to this party relatively speaking.
NearTheEars
Well-Known Member
We just did that today. Had a pleasant time and ate at Skipper Canteen.
Being local, the crowded days don’t stress me out. We have the luxury of coming back whenever we want.
Now that doesn’t mean we don’t get excited to see light crowds. And we try to at least check for FPs a few hours before we arrive.
beertiki
Well-Known Member
I think what we are seeing is a shift in the baseline for crowding. A 10 will always be packed almost to capacity, a 2 used to be 15 minutes or less for most rides. What used to be a 2, does not happen anymore. Now a 2 is 25 minutes or less. What used to be the slow times of the year, are now average, 3 rides at rope drop is now 2.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
According to your description...you actually reinforced the point: you paid a price to walk to a lunch you paid for.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The problem there is they can lie about the data as much as they want. Not saying they will, but it's entirely up to chapek
Dutch Inn '76
Well-Known Member
I know that crowds are up. We were also there in January and the MASSES were there with us. Yes the waits were long. It took forever to get from Country Bears to Tomorrowland simply because of the humanity in the way.
Disney World is not a national attraction anymore; it's a worldwide attraction. People come from everywhere, and they don't care about the school calendar. That's for regional parks. Also, younger generations of Americans don't mind pulling their kids out of school for vacation, while older ones wouldn't do this.
That's why there's no down time at WDW.
Is Disney using as few employees as they can? OF COURSE. As a business they'd be irresponsible if they did anything else; but the crowds are huge no matter what. We're not far from the MK being able to reach capacity on any given day. I'll betcha that The Mouse loves that fact.
Disney World is not a national attraction anymore; it's a worldwide attraction. People come from everywhere, and they don't care about the school calendar. That's for regional parks. Also, younger generations of Americans don't mind pulling their kids out of school for vacation, while older ones wouldn't do this.
That's why there's no down time at WDW.
Is Disney using as few employees as they can? OF COURSE. As a business they'd be irresponsible if they did anything else; but the crowds are huge no matter what. We're not far from the MK being able to reach capacity on any given day. I'll betcha that The Mouse loves that fact.
MuteSuperstar
Well-Known Member
So when you're at the grocery store on a crazy busy day and they have 2 of 20 checkout lines open, you just shrug and say hey it's ok, they're a business? You are more sanguine than I.
I mean I understand that American corporations are doing the best they can to condition people to expect way less for way more money....and wow is it working.
Bob Harlem
Well-Known Member
Other indicators of crowds aren't rising like it would normally in the busy times, though (hotel capacity, other parks, disney springs, open areas). People with fast passes aren't in the standby lines. So I think there is something to the fact that My Magic + is using to hyper optimize based on projections, and if reality is slightly larger than predicted this causes the big "crowds" to appear, because they underestimated. You aren't getting what you paid for.
The analogy of the packed store with 20 checkout lines, 2 of which are actually open is a good one.