Len Testa Crowd Analysis

[Rteetz]

The budget cuts — i.e. decrease in spending — ARE temporary.

The specific things cut may not come back. And thank goodness. They’re often stale or low performers. Keeps the parks fresh to introduce new things. Especially for those of us who are lucky enough to visit often.

Disclaimer: some will always be sad when any particular thing is cut, etc. Sometimes I’m that person. Par for the course in entertainment.

Whatever floats your boat. I think many of us didn’t find Citizens of Hollywood low or stale. Some other offerings sure.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Whatever floats your boat. I think many of us didn’t find Citizens of Hollywood low or stale. Some other offerings sure.

I get it. That one matters to you. It doesn’t to others. That’s always true.

 

[monothingie]

The budget cuts — i.e. decrease in spending — ARE temporary.

The specific things cut may not come back. And thank goodness. They’re often stale or low performers. Keeps the parks fresh to introduce new things. Especially for those of us who are lucky enough to visit often.

Disclaimer: some will always be sad when any particular thing is cut, etc. Sometimes I’m that person. Par for the course in entertainment.

Cuts mean not coming back.
Replacement means something new coming.

We have seen more of the former than the latter.

 

[Rteetz]

I get it. That one matters to you. It doesn’t to others. That’s always true.

It’s not just me. Look at threads here, elsewhere, and social media people really enjoy that entertainment. I get it you may not but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t popular.

 

[winstongator]

It shouldn't have to be a demise at all. In the 2000's things got bad very fast. Right now things are flat or going bad less quickly. For a company like TWDC operating the premier parks and resorts in all of the world, this should never be the case. If all your goal as a division is just to meet quarterly projections and not grow your brand, you will never be the top of anything.

By what measure do you think things are going badly?

I don’t think it’s in demise at all — others seem to on boards like this — despite long positive trends in results. I don’t think things are flat. That ignores all of the current and planned building and activity (and financial results over time). People love to say that all Disney execs are doing is watching their quarterly projections. If they were ONLY doing that, we wouldn’t have the planned and in-progress additions or long term results we can all observe.

People have their pet topics and pet peeves about everything. This is a big one on boards with some of the most vocal posters. Doesn’t make it accurate.

Attendance is fluctuating. It went down in 2016, I believe due to the price increase. Our APs went up something close to 20% because they changed how they were tiered for FL residents. Parks and resorts profits grew modestly in 2016 - you might make more money with slightly less guests with higher prices (I'd need to look up per-guest spending changes). Disney cares about that more than pure attendance. Customer satisfaction is important to that in terms of long-run brand building. 2017 was a banner year for the parks. Their profit was up 14%, while all the other segments declined by double digit percentages. Parks and resorts outperformed in profit growth all other Disney segments by over 25%. 2017 had Pandora. TSL will not bump attendance, revenue and profit anywhere close to how Pandora did. 2018 & 2019 will be slower, growth wise, in Orlando. SWGE will be massive for DL in 2019, and also in 2020 for WDW.

TLDR: attendance dipped in 2016 due to prices. 2017 saw Pandora really grow attendance. 2018, TSL didn't do nearly as much. 2019, DL will boom with SWGE, and it will hit WDW in 2020. They're increasing prices till modest attendance dips, then count on new offerings to reinvigorate attendance.

 

[winstongator]

Uh, yeah. Cyclical in part. What are the year over year trends for the past several years? Even where attendance is flat yoy, per guest spending is up as are profits (unless my info is out of date?).

That may scream “big problem” to some. I disagree.

And to view this in a vacuum — like they don’t have major things coming on line in the next few years — is nonsensical. But many seem to.

I'm not sure it's cyclical as much as a response to price increases as happened in 2016. 2017 also had the 13 months for 12 AP offer - was that for all APs or just FL residents. They are looking to maximize profits, which is something entirely different than maximizing attendance. The biggest boost to attendance: Pandora. There is a pretty significant plan over the next few years to do similar things.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Perhaps they reached a tipping point with guests?

That's extremely unlikely.

You are P&Rs ideal model guest. Which explains so much.

You do realize that most people can no longer afford Disney because they’ve been priced out? Not that it was ever affordable to begin with.

How much extra will a cupcake party on a party night set the average family of 4? On top of hotel airfare park admission food etc.

Perhaps this explains why people aren’t going??

What kind of thinking is that? A company has no obligation to make sure every family of four can afford their product. It's generous if they do (and may or may not be good business) but there is no obligation.

And the prices didn't just go up last month (other than parking fees, which totally suck and I still resent and always will.)

People who can't afford it are not the issue here, but when something is expensive and people want it, ways become available. I have never purchased a $700 iphone, but I have two of them in the household because Verizon makes the purchase manageable (or in this case, completely free.)

I can't afford to stay at Yacht Club, but I just did on an overnight trip because I got an AP discount and paid for it with Chase points 100%. I couldn't do most of what I do at WDW without Chase points. In the past, when I couldn't afford it, I stayed offsite and ate CiCi's pizza $5 buffets. That's how it goes. If it's important to you, you find a way to do it. If it isn't, you don't and that's ok, too.

Last year we ate at V&A's - completely on Chase points.

I'm sure I'm not the only one defraying costs in that manner, if not to that degree.

But let's be real: 1. People are definitely waiting for Star Wars to open before getting their next tickets or AP's. 2. Many people go the same time every year. All the thousands of people who booked last year around this time likely had some issue because of the hurricane. That puts hurricanes prominently in peoples' minds for a year or two until they are willing to take a chance again. That discourages bookings for some.

I suspect that's most of it.

There is a limit with Higher margin guests. Higher spending will not compensate for overall lower attendance, especially when that number peaks.

Says who? They don't need everyone to go. They need enough people who can afford it to go and beat the numbers YoY. That's reality. Yes, business has a cold, heartless aspect to it.

Cuts mean not coming back.
Replacement means something new coming.

We have seen more of the former than the latter.

Cuts are appropriate and necessary when sales/attendance are down. Any business who did not make cuts to match attendance would be irresponsible. When my little business is busier in season, I can put more people on the schedule. In the summer, I have to cut hours and work more shifts myself - because that is what the then-current level of business will support. Not for reasons of heartless budget cutting. If I didn't do that, I'd quickly take on enough debt to become a problem in the near term.

It’s not just me. Look at threads here, elsewhere, and social media people really enjoy that entertainment. I get it you may not but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t popular.

How popular was it, and did it bring people to the parks and/or keep them there? Would a lot of people mention in surveys that this was a highlight of their day and rate it "very important?"

Do more people walk past, or stop and watch?

And is it something that's easy to restore or replace should the time come? I would think so, especially vs. something involving a show building.

 

[MisterPenguin]

There's been unprecedented growth in attendance for a decade with the exception of 2016 where it seems WDW purposely wanted to hit the brakes on the crowds at MK and their price increased did the trick. But attendance went up again in 2017.

And honestly, how could WDW possibly cut back Citizens of Sunset when they decimated them at the height of #ThanksShanghai. Oh yeah, they were cut back during the winter following a surprisingly busy fall in which that extra attendance didn't carry past the New Year. And they eventually hired more citizens later. And they added Green Army Men, and all the Star Wars street entertainment.

The claim of a slow-motion collapse of WDW as proposed by our dearly departed FordExploder and proposed again by SirWordsAlot is simply ridiculous. No need to address it except with laughter.

I think that WDW is overreacting to this fall decline, a decline that WDW used to have every year except for the past three. I'll be there in a few weeks and if the crowds pick up and the entertainment is still reduced, I'll be sending another complaint to the powers that be (I do complain to WDW, not a pixie duster).

 

[Rteetz]

How popular was it, and did it bring people to the parks and/or keep them there? Would a lot of people mention in surveys that this was a highlight of their day and rate it "very important?"

Do more people walk past, or stop and watch?

And is it something that's easy to restore or replace should the time come? I would think so, especially vs. something involving a show building.

None of these cuts brought people to the parks. That’s not the point. You need these smaller entertainment things in these parks. It’s part of theme and giving people things to do outside of just rides. The Citizens seem to be getting a slow death. The cut it little by little. Why not just cut the entire thing?

 

[Rteetz]

I think that WDW is overreacting to this fall decline, a decline that WDW used to have every year except for the past three. I'll be there in a few weeks and if the crowds pick up and the entertainment is still reduced, I'll be sending another complaint to the powers that be (I do complain to WDW, not a pixie duster).

This I agree with but ask why do they have to overreact? In the grand scheme of this multi billion company do these few entertainment options really save them that much in the long run?

 

[LSLS]

That's extremely unlikely.

How popular was it, and did it bring people to the parks and/or keep them there? Would a lot of people mention in surveys that this was a highlight of their day and rate it "very important?"

Do more people walk past, or stop and watch?

And is it something that's easy to restore or replace should the time come? I would think so, especially vs. something involving a show building.

Yeah, but that was something that I always liked about Disney. There were little things here and there that you could go to. Things that some may not like, others loved. There are plenty of classic attractions that don't really bring people to the parks. In fact, you could probably make an argument that for the vast majority of people, there is NOT a single ride that brings them to the parks. If you asked 100 people why they made a trip to the Magic Kingdom, I bet you would get a 0 for a large amount of offerings. My guess is the atmosphere and the ambiance top that one. I may be a cynic, but it feels like an excuse to make a bunch more cuts to me.

Anyways, I doubt this is some sort of greater demise. This won't be a concern unless it continues for multiple months. I've hit my breaking point with the parks for the most part, but I also accept I'm in a great minority. Now, if October is down, and Thanksgiving is light, then there can be some real questions asked.

 

[disneyflush]

I remember when it felt like the social media team took up shop on these forums a few years ago. Completely escapes me how we ultimately were able to identify them though.

 

[wdwfan22]

Whatever floats your boat. I think many of us didn’t find Citizens of Hollywood low or stale. Some other offerings sure.

I think what a lot of people on here fail to see is that not all people who go to Disney are die hard Disney fans. And not all entertainment is great entertainment. Perfect example. This August my travel party had 5 guests who had never been before. On our Hollywood Studios visit not one of them found the Citizens of Hollywood to be entertaining and most opted we keep walking and not watch. Same can be said for other entertainment offerings and attractions. This is not to say that some people don't like them. It's just that not all are as popular as the forums and twitter would have you believe. Disney bloggers are the worst at making hype out of nothing. I think Disney uses the slower time to re-evaluate the entertainment offerings. I also believe it's not as big of a slow down as many on here are claiming it to be.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

FWIW, there is one attraction/event that consistently brought hordes of people to HS, that was The Osbourne Lights.
I really miss them, and can't understand why they got rid of them when they obviously brought a lot of people to the park and they were well loved. It was an annual event for our family, but no more....

 

[JoeCamel]

I think what a lot of people on here fail to see is that not all people who go to Disney are die hard Disney fans. And not all entertainment is great entertainment. Perfect example. This August my travel party had 5 guests who had never been before. On our Hollywood Studios visit not one of them found the Citizens of Hollywood to be entertaining and most opted we keep walking and not watch. Same can be said for other entertainment offerings and attractions. This is not to say that some people don't like them. It's just that not all are as popular as the forums and twitter would have you believe. Disney bloggers are the worst at making hype out of nothing. I think Disney uses the slower time to re-evaluate the entertainment offerings. I also believe it's not as big of a slow down as many on here are claiming it to be.

So your group chose not to experience something and you judge it to be uninteresting? If you had experienced it and then came to that conclusion then that would be valid for you. But what you say makes no sense. Like saying a play is not worth it because you choose not to participate. Just escapes my logic or maybe you are physic and know the content without having to see/hear it.

 

[wdwfan22]

So your group chose not to experience something and you judge it to be uninteresting? If you had experienced it and then came to that conclusion then that would be valid for you. But what you say makes no sense. Like saying a play is not worth it because you choose not to participate. Just escapes my logic or maybe you are physic and know the content without having to see/hear it.

I believe i said that most of them opted that we keep walking and to not watch the full performance. We did view the performance. I've seen them many of times and even as a die hard disney fan, I don't find the show overly entertaining by any means. Again the point is that not all Guests find the entertainment acts as entertaining as others. And just because the forums and social media bloggers find them entertaining doesn't mean that the majority of guests feel that way.

 

[geekza]

Another likely reason for the cuts: Raises for the unionized workers. They are going to be paid something closer to a living wage. Instead of swallowing the cost and lowering profits a miniscule amount, they're making cuts. I'm sure Iger's bonus is solid, though, so no worries.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

But attendance went up again in 2017.

Serious question: did it go up in 2017 over 2015? Or just up over the already lower 2016? Asking cuz I don't know.

Yeah, but that was something that I always liked about Disney. There were little things here and there that you could go to.

Completely agree. But if they have to cut somewhere, they have to cut somewhere. Hopefully it's temporary.

 

[winstongator]

Serious question: did it go up in 2017 over 2015? Or just up over the already lower 2016? Asking cuz I don't know.



Completely agree. But if they have to cut somewhere, they have to cut somewhere. Hopefully it's temporary.

I think the increase was pretty massive. The drop from '15-'16 was around 1%. The increase from '16-'17 was closer to 5%, iirc. I'll edit with the wikipedia link & numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amusement_park_rankings
2015 2016 2017
MK 20,492,000 20,395,000 20,450,000
EP 11,798,000 11,712,000 12,200,000
HS 10,828,000 10,776,000 10,722,000
AK 10,922,000 10,844,000 12,500,000
54,040,000 53,727,000 55,872,000

Up 3.3% from 2015, probably close to exactly 4% from 2016 (lazy & didn't add up). Should be noted, almost all the gain was from AK & Epcot. MK & HS didn't rebound. HS suffered due to closures, especially as @Minnesota disney fan mentioned the Osborne lights, but also the general idea that it had become a 'half day' park. MK seems to be bouncing around its limits, which will definitely be tested in 2021. Was down 0.6% in 2016.

I should have noted that 2016 had one full day of hurricane closure and one day they shut down early where the parks were quite empty. 2017 had 2 full closure days for Irma. So on an per-day attendance, it’s actually up 2015-2017, but really, it’s flat.

 

[JoeCamel]

I think the increase was pretty massive. The drop from '15-'16 was around 1%. The increase from '16-'17 was closer to 5%, iirc. I'll edit with the wikipedia link & numbers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amusement_park_rankings
2015 2016 2017
MK 20,492,000 20,395,000 20,450,000
EP 11,798,000 11,712,000 12,200,000
HS 10,828,000 10,776,000 10,722,000
AK 10,922,000 10,844,000 12,500,000
54,040,000 53,727,000 55,872,000

Up 3.3% from 2015, probably close to exactly 4% from 2016 (lazy & didn't add up). Should be noted, almost all the gain was from AK & Epcot. MK & HS didn't rebound. HS suffered due to closures, especially as @Minnesota disney fan mentioned the Osborne lights, but also the general idea that it had become a 'half day' park. MK seems to be bouncing around its limits, which will definitely be tested in 2021. Was down 0.6% in 2016.

So MK down15 -17
Epcot up but added another festival
AK up - pandora
DHS down

Tell me again how this is not a decline?

Also remember where those numbers come from