Len Testa - “Disney positions itself as the all-American vacation. The irony is that most Americans can’t afford it.”

[JoeCamel]

I know this isnt an exact comparison but Celebrity Cruises came out with a River Cruise product recently. There was a placeholder that you could purchase to be among the first able to book these sailings ( Smaller boats, less guests etc) Those placeholder spots sold out within 6 minutes. Yes you heard correctly, 6 minutes. Those placeholders were filled and on Thursday the 25th, the remainder of the 33 sailings were opened to the general public. Those sold out in 5 hours total for all of 2027 which is 33 cruises, double occupancy, among two ships. All of these sailings will take place on the Danube or Rhine Rivers in Europe. The money and the desire to travel is out there. People want something new and different. Granted this might be a different audience but I do see some overlap. Marie

The days of quiet river cruising are over, they will turn all the ports of call into the same tourist trap on repeat. If it's Tuesday it must be Budapest......

 

[wannabeBelle]

Boomers hold most of the wealth in this country. It’s no surprising that river cruises on celebrity which tend to attract an older demographic were a hot ticket for celebrity fans. I remember when vacations by Disney went to the river cruises market there was a lot of excitement, but that faded pretty quickly.

How were these priced? ABD starts around 5k per person and Tauck a little less than that.
I also don't think the high end vacations selling out means a lot with the wealth divide in this country.

Celebrity is starting at $4200 per person or so for an infinite balcony room, so it isnt far off from the Disney river offerings. My only point is that travel isn't dead because people can't afford it. People can be priced out or valued out. Im willing to say it is a combination of the two.

 

[Miss Bella]

Celebrity is starting at $4200 per person or so for an infinite balcony room, so it isnt far off from the Disney river offerings. My only point is that travel isn't dead because people can't afford it. People can be priced out or valued out. Im willing to say it is a combination of the two.

I never considered river cruises a middle class family vacation. You're looking at over 20k for a family of four. I don't think travel is dead. There are plenty of older wealthy people that can afford those types of vacations. There are also a lot of people that can't afford the vacations they used to take because their discretionary income is shrinking. That is more of a middle class issue. High end river cruises aren't vacations middle class families have ever been able to afford.

 

[Raineman]

I never considered river cruises a middle class family vacation. You're looking at over 20k for a family of four. I don't think travel is dead. There are plenty of older wealthy people that can afford those types of vacations. There are also a lot of people that can't afford the vacations they used to take because their discretionary income is shrinking. That is more of a middle class issue. High end river cruises aren't vacations middle class families have ever been able to afford.

If WDW vacations do transition into being something that only older wealthier people can afford, similar to the river cruises you mentioned, the question has to be asked: do older, wealthier people want to vacation at WDW? Would it be a sustainable business model for Disney to target these kind of people as their main customer base? If it gets to the point where WDW is a luxury vacation based on the cost, is that a vacation choice that the people who can afford it, will want to make? Lower class families have been priced out for a long time, middle class families are on the verge of that, which only leaves the upper class that would be able to afford Disney theme park trips.

 

[jah4955]

more and more discounts being offered today...

 

[Miss Bella]

If WDW vacations do transition into being something that only older wealthier people can afford, similar to the river cruises you mentioned, the question has to be asked: do older, wealthier people want to vacation at WDW? Would it be a sustainable business model for Disney to target these kind of people as their main customer base? If it gets to the point where WDW is a luxury vacation based on the cost, is that a vacation choice that the people who can afford it, will want to make? Lower class families have been priced out for a long time, middle class families are on the verge of that, which only leaves the upper class that would be able to afford Disney theme park trips.

There gets to be a point in life where walking 8 miles a day and standing all day is not enjoyable or doable. Of course there is always the exceptional 80 year old still running marathons, but that's not the norm.

You know those ride warnings about heart conditions and other health conditions....well most of those apply to seniors. You also have to have the ability to use phone technology another reason it doesn't work. To answer your question no I don't think Disney can get that demographic.

 

[Miss Bella]

more and more discounts being offered today...

I priced out of few days to check it out and the prices are still shocking.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I know this isnt an exact comparison but Celebrity Cruises came out with a River Cruise product recently. There was a placeholder that you could purchase to be among the first able to book these sailings ( Smaller boats, less guests etc) Those placeholder spots sold out within 6 minutes. Yes you heard correctly, 6 minutes. Those placeholders were filled and on Thursday the 25th, the remainder of the 33 sailings were opened to the general public. Those sold out in 5 hours total for all of 2027 which is 33 cruises, double occupancy, among two ships. All of these sailings will take place on the Danube or Rhine Rivers in Europe. The money and the desire to travel is out there. People want something new and different. Granted this might be a different audience but I do see some overlap. Marie

I think the current cruising boom is a major indicator of the desire to travel, global cruise attendance is expected to hit 40 million in the next year or 2… which in one way shows how big of a draw WDW is (at 50 million guests) but also highlights how many guests they need to retain to avoid a downturn.

I think there’s likely a huge overlap as well, Disney is competing directly against the cruise lines for our vacation dollars, not just DCL but the parks as well.

If WDW vacations do transition into being something that only older wealthier people can afford, similar to the river cruises you mentioned, the question has to be asked: do older, wealthier people want to vacation at WDW? Would it be a sustainable business model for Disney to target these kind of people as their main customer base? If it gets to the point where WDW is a luxury vacation based on the cost, is that a vacation choice that the people who can afford it, will want to make? Lower class families have been priced out for a long time, middle class families are on the verge of that, which only leaves the upper class that would be able to afford Disney theme park trips.

I think that transition happened years ago, we’ve noticed for several years that for every kid we see at a Disney park we see probably a half dozen adults, kids feel like a small percent of Disney guests now.

As for the second question I bet it causes a lot of sleepless nights for Disney executives, they’re constantly trying to find the line between maximizing guest spending and not pushing away too many guests to other options.

 

[dlfan1313]

If WDW vacations do transition into being something that only older wealthier people can afford, similar to the river cruises you mentioned, the question has to be asked: do older, wealthier people want to vacation at WDW? Would it be a sustainable business model for Disney to target these kind of people as their main customer base? If it gets to the point where WDW is a luxury vacation based on the cost, is that a vacation choice that the people who can afford it, will want to make? Lower class families have been priced out for a long time, middle class families are on the verge of that, which only leaves the upper class that would be able to afford Disney theme park trips.

Not to sound all snooty, but I don't think many truly wealthy people vacation at WDW. I mean, I know they do from time to time and drop a lot of money when they do, but not nearly often enough to keep the castle drawbridge open. Disney as a whole and WDW, perhaps more than any other of their ventures, desperately needs the middle class. Most middle-class families already can't afford a WDW vacation, even if they don't realize that, and many more rely on their credit cards to pay for it. Disney has been walking this line for quite some time and managed to weather economic storms rather well, but eventually a Cat. 5 economic downturn will happen, leading to serious financial struggles for the entire company. It might not even take that much. Despite people lining up to throw money away on plastic tubs full of fried corn, oil, and salt, they're walking a tight rope. The canyon between raking in millions year after year and struggling to stay open is not as wide as some might assume.

 

[Nunu]

There gets to be a point in life where walking 8 miles a day and standing all day is not enjoyable or doable. Of course there is always the exceptional 80 year old still running marathons, but that's not the norm.

You know those ride warnings about heart conditions and other health conditions....well most of those apply to seniors. You also have to have the ability to use phone technology another reason it doesn't work. To answer your question no I don't think Disney can get that demographic.

Not a senior yet, but I agree.

The way we approach a WDW vacation these days has definitely changed from our mid 20's go-go-go attitude. We're still active, but have also gotten more selective on how we spend our energy/time/money.

We still enjoy our visits, but to us, the monetary value just isn't the same as before, unfortunately.

 

[Splash4eva]

more and more discounts being offered today...

Nothing to see here…. Guess the parade was not really what they had expected or hope for

 

[Miss Bella]

I think the current cruising boom is a major indicator of the desire to travel, global cruise attendance is expected to hit 40 million in the next year or 2… which in one way shows how big of a draw WDW is (at 50 million guests) but also highlights how many guests they need to retain to avoid a downturn.

I think there’s likely a huge overlap as well, Disney is competing directly against the cruise lines for our vacation dollars, not just DCL but the parks as well.



I think that transition happened years ago, we’ve noticed for several years that for every kid we see at a Disney park we see probably a half dozen adults, kids feel like a small percent of Disney guests now.

As for the second question I bet it causes a lot of sleepless nights for Disney executives, they’re constantly trying to find the line between maximizing guest spending and not pushing away too many guests to other options.

Agree cruising has become very popular. Every time I eat out I remember why. Cruise food may not be great, but it is included. That said DCL is not selling out at the price they want. All kinds of discounts being offered on DCL. I'm relatively new to Royal and NCL I couldn't tell you about their pricing, but I'm happy with prices I booked at.

 

[Miss Bella]

Not a senior yet, but I agree.

The way we approach a WDW vacation these days has definitely changed from our mid 20's go-go-go attitude. We're still active, but have also gotten more selective on how we spend our energy/time/money.

We still enjoy our visits, but to us, the monetary value just isn't the same as before, unfortunately.

My 86 year old mother in-law is doing great for her age. She still lives independently and drives. WDW no way. She did go on a cruise last year. I think the last time she went to Disneyland she was in her late 60's and just did it for the grandkids.

 

[Miss Bella]

Not to sound all snooty, but I don't think many truly wealthy people vacation at WDW. I mean, I know they do from time to time and drop a lot of money when they do, but not nearly often enough to keep the castle drawbridge open. Disney as a whole and WDW, perhaps more than any other of their ventures, desperately needs the middle class. Most middle-class families already can't afford a WDW vacation, even if they don't realize that, and many more rely on their credit cards to pay for it. Disney has been walking this line for quite some time and managed to weather economic storms rather well, but eventually a Cat. 5 economic downturn will happen, leading to serious financial struggles for the entire company. It might not even take that much. Despite people lining up to throw money away on plastic tubs full of fried corn, oil, and salt, they're walking a tight rope. The canyon between raking in millions year after year and struggling to stay open is not as wide as some might assume.

Celebrities, athletes and I'm sure lots of super wealthy people in other professions take their kids to WDW, but I don't think it's a yearly thing. I agree with you I do think it's primarily been supported by middle, upper middle class and a some a little above that.
A cat 5 economic storm which I believe is coming is going to effect a lot more than just Disney.
I don't much about Disney's balance sheets. Are they leveraged? It always comes down to debt.

 

[Biff215]

I priced out of few days to check it out and the prices are still shocking.

I fully agree, the discounts aren’t great and the rack rates are outrageous. Over $250/night after tax to stay at Pop in January at the “discounted” rate. That’s saving you a whopping $13/night.

So instead of paying that we’ll either stay off property or rent DVC points. The sky may not be falling just yet, but this simply isn’t sustainable as many have pointed out.

 

[lentesta]

... There are plenty of older wealthy people that can afford those types of vacations. There are also a lot of people that can't afford the vacations they used to take because their discretionary income is shrinking. That is more of a middle class issue. ...

A NYMag article a while back noted that 2/3rds of New Yorkers under age 43 were rent-subsidized by their parents.

I don't have the direct data, but I'm assuming that parents and grandparents are also covering any big trips as well.

Or as my DD27 says, "any trip can be an all-inclusive if you just bring your parents."

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

A NYMag article a while back noted that 2/3rds of New Yorkers under age 43 were rent-subsidized by their parents.

I don't have the direct data, but I'm assuming that parents and grandparents are also covering any big trips as well.

Or as my DD27 says, "any trip can be an all-inclusive if you just bring your parents."

The funny part about that to me is people from cities like NY apparently see Disney prices as not bad at all. Can't count how many times I've read in these forums when talking about the price of a steak or drink, "That's what we pay in NY".

Yes I can afford that bourbon steak meal over at the Dolphin, just need someone to cover my mortgage.
'

 

[networkpro]

So are talking about economic relativism, regional median incomes, or capitalism in general ? There's no open ended supply of resources so there is going to be value seeking behavior on both sides of the equation: suppliers and consumers. Consumers are going to reach for the most expensive option available on a dining plan and the supplier is going to increase the cost of what bundled purchase is required to obtain that option.

 

[Splash4eva]

The funny part about that to me is people from cities like NY apparently see Disney prices as not bad at all. Can't count how many times I've read in these forums when talking about the price of a steak or drink, "That's what we pay in NY".

Yes I can afford that bourbon steak meal over at the Dolphin, just need someone to cover my mortgage.
'

As someone who has lived & worked in NY that is 100% accurate. No sticker shock here no matter where i go.

 

[Bocabear]

I think part of the issue is the whole pre-planning every second of your vacation that also makes a WDW vacation just a huge pain in the a__. We used to go to WDW multiple times a year....we now only really go once... River Cruises are expensive but what you get to see and experience is far outweighing the nickel-and-diming of a Disney trip. We literally just got home last night from a European river cruise and had an amazing time...and it all felt less stressful than a long weekend at WDW. Maybe I have just grown past that age where I enjoy all the crowds and planning.... that is possible....