Is Disney Losing DVC Members/Contracts due to Covid??

TheGuyThatMakesSwords

TheGuyThatMakesSwords

Well-Known Member
Phonedave said:
But that is not guaranteed. Let's say the economy is so bad that when you put your $1 contract on the market, nobody wants it. DVC is not going to come along and buy it either.

But, you say, SOMEBODY will want a contract for $1. Maybe, maybe not. Hopefully that time never comes, but there are other timeshares out there are are being offered for $1, and they are sitting on the market.
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So the Hydrogen option :). Would hate to do it.... we default :(.
 
CastAStone

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
Club Cooloholic said:
I read direct sales just keep hitting new bottoms every month since this started.
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LuvtheGoof said:
To be expected, especially since the sales office has been closed. It probably wonā€™t pick up until September or October.
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Yeah hard to sell things when you aren't returning calls or emails. That said the fact that they are offering direct discounts on BLT, OKW, SSR, AKV, and Poly right now makes me think that they are antsy to unload some points inventory.
 
CastAStone

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
P.S. Here is a chart I did on another board with the current incentives if anyone is interested:

ResortNumber of PointsExisting Member IncentivesExisting Member PriceNew Member IncentivesNew Member Price
Copper Creek
($220)		100-124
125-149
150-199
200-299
300-499
500-999
1000+		$5
$15
$25
$35
$40
$45
$60		$215
$205
$195
$185
$180
$175
$160		None
None
$15
$25
$30
$35
$50		$220
$200
$205
$195
$190
$185
$170
Riviera
($195)

Aulani
($195)		100-124
125-149
150-199
200-299
300-499
500-999
1000+		$5
$15
$25
$35
$40
$45
$60		$190
$180
$170
$160
$155
$150
$135		None
None
$15
$25
$30
$35
$50		$195
$195
$180
$170
$165
$160
$145
Old Key West
($165)

Saratoga Springs
($165)		100-124
125-149
150-199
200-299
300-499
500-999
1000+		$2
$4
$8
$11
$13
$18
$20		$163
$161
$157
$154
$152
$147
$145		None
None
$5
$8
$10
$15
$17		$165
$165
$160
$157
$155
$150
$148
Animal Kingdom Villas
($186)		100-124
125-149
150-199
200-299
300-499
500-999
1000+		$2
$4
$8
$11
$13
$18
$20		$184
$182
$178
$175
$173
$168
$166		None
None
$5
$8
$10
$15
$17		$186
$186
$181
$178
$176
$171
$169
Bay Lake Tower
($235)		100-124
125-149
150-199
200-299
300-499
500-999
1000+		$2
$4
$8
$11
$13
$18
$20		$233
$231
$227
$224
$222
$217
$215		None
None
$5
$8
$10
$15
$17		$235
$235
$230
$227
$225
$220
$218
Polynesian
($245)		100-124
125-149
150-199
200-299
300-499
500-999
1000+		$2
$4
$8
$11
$13
$18
$20		$243
$241
$237
$234
$232
$227
$225		None
None
$5
$8
$10
$15
$17		$245
$245
$240
$237
$235
$230
$228
 
RememberWhen

RememberWhen

Well-Known Member
Tiggerish said:
Good god, OKW is selling at almost $100 pp more than I paid for it?! Bought in at $68pp for 220 points in 1998. Just the right amount for us,never felt the need to add on.
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The prices do seem to have gotten out of hand. My mother bought at Boardwalk, I think in 98. I donā€™t know what she paid for it then, but nothing compared to what the prices are now. I would consider adding on at AKL, but only resale. These prices are too high.
 
eliza61nyc

eliza61nyc

Well-Known Member
RememberWhen said:
The prices do seem to have gotten out of hand. My mother bought at Boardwalk, I think in 98. I donā€™t know what she paid for it then, but nothing compared to what the prices are now. I would consider adding on at AKL, but only resale. These prices are too high.
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Man if I didn't love Disney so much this would be the perfect time to sell if buyers could be found.
 
aliceismad

aliceismad

Well-Known Member
mdktf said:
It was cancelled after9-11 and eventually became AOA.
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Exactly. So maybe when they reimagine this area, the result will be completely different, which should make most people here happy since the opinion on this forum seemed to be that Reflections was a modren Hyatt-esque monstrosity that continued a de-themeing generic hotel trend.
 
aliceismad

aliceismad

Well-Known Member
Mainahman said:
Now lets swap it, and look at it a different way? What if now is the time to buy in resale? while prices are lower etc?
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I'm by no means an expert, but I've looked into buying a few times in the past 5 years or so, and I've been following sales casually since February as the upfront costs without financing are now feasible for us. I've been given the advice to be practical about when you would be able to use points due to the overload right now in points to be used and I've also heard a few times that some people are predicting a fall in prices in the fall in part due to the pressure of upcoming annual dues.

The glut of points out there is causing concern that there will be a high level of competition for DVC rooms for the next year(s) as people try to use up all their banked points. Also the rental market, which was once an easy way for owners to offload points and get cash, is fairly unstable at the moment.

Prices are "lower" but they are not "low" in comparison with prices 10 or even 5 years ago. It also does depend somewhat on which resort you're looking at and what amount of points you're looking at, and the popularity of those preferences. The per point cost on large contracts is considerably less than the cost on small contracts, and small contracts seem to be selling pretty quickly still. Also at some point, Disney will restart rejecting resale contracts that are too low.
 
Mainahman

Mainahman

Well-Known Member
It
aliceismad said:
I'm by no means an expert, but I've looked into buying a few times in the past 5 years or so, and I've been following sales casually since February as the upfront costs without financing are now feasible for us. I've been given the advice to be practical about when you would be able to use points due to the overload right now in points to be used and I've also heard a few times that some people are predicting a fall in prices in the fall in part due to the pressure of upcoming annual dues.

The glut of points out there is causing concern that there will be a high level of competition for DVC rooms for the next year(s) as people try to use up all their banked points. Also the rental market, which was once an easy way for owners to offload points and get cash, is fairly unstable at the moment.

Prices are "lower" but they are not "low" in comparison with prices 10 or even 5 years ago. It also does depend somewhat on which resort you're looking at and what amount of points you're looking at, and the popularity of those preferences. The per point cost on large contracts is considerably less than the cost on small contracts, and small contracts seem to be selling pretty quickly still. Also at some point, Disney will restart rejecting resale contracts that are too low.
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Its something were starting to watch ourselves. Will be interesting for sure.
 
CastAStone

CastAStone

5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Premium Member
aliceismad said:
I'm by no means an expert, but I've looked into buying a few times in the past 5 years or so, and I've been following sales casually since February as the upfront costs without financing are now feasible for us. I've been given the advice to be practical about when you would be able to use points due to the overload right now in points to be used and I've also heard a few times that some people are predicting a fall in prices in the fall in part due to the pressure of upcoming annual dues.

The glut of points out there is causing concern that there will be a high level of competition for DVC rooms for the next year(s) as people try to use up all their banked points. Also the rental market, which was once an easy way for owners to offload points and get cash, is fairly unstable at the moment.

Prices are "lower" but they are not "low" in comparison with prices 10 or even 5 years ago. It also does depend somewhat on which resort you're looking at and what amount of points you're looking at, and the popularity of those preferences. The per point cost on large contracts is considerably less than the cost on small contracts, and small contracts seem to be selling pretty quickly still. Also at some point, Disney will restart rejecting resale contracts that are too low.
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It seems reasonably likely that more contracts will come on the market than usual in the next year, both due to people annoyed with everything (closures, points glut, expiring points, inability to rent, etc) and deciding its time to sell, and due to the recession.

It also seems reasonably likely that demand will be reduced considerably, for the same reasons, and also because with fewer people at WDW fewer people will "catch the bug".

If a drop in prices is caused by excess supply, Disney will be unable to support prices via ROFR, as they simply aren't in a position to buy up a ton of contracts. Anything they buy they need to sell, and they are already offering incentives on 5 sold out resorts as it is, an indication that their demand is already too low. Offering incentives on sold out resorts isn't something they've done in at least 10 years.

As a result I think a return to 2016ish prices within 12 months is fairly likely. Possibly lower.
 
LuvtheGoof

LuvtheGoof

DVC Guru
Premium Member
aliceismad said:
I'm by no means an expert, but I've looked into buying a few times in the past 5 years or so, and I've been following sales casually since February as the upfront costs without financing are now feasible for us. I've been given the advice to be practical about when you would be able to use points due to the overload right now in points to be used and I've also heard a few times that some people are predicting a fall in prices in the fall in part due to the pressure of upcoming annual dues.

The glut of points out there is causing concern that there will be a high level of competition for DVC rooms for the next year(s) as people try to use up all their banked points. Also the rental market, which was once an easy way for owners to offload points and get cash, is fairly unstable at the moment.

Prices are "lower" but they are not "low" in comparison with prices 10 or even 5 years ago. It also does depend somewhat on which resort you're looking at and what amount of points you're looking at, and the popularity of those preferences. The per point cost on large contracts is considerably less than the cost on small contracts, and small contracts seem to be selling pretty quickly still. Also at some point, Disney will restart rejecting resale contracts that are too low.
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As long as you buy where you want to stay - which you should do anyway - you are really pretty much guaranteed a room at the 11 month mark. The only exception might be the value studios at AKL, which do go the first day, or even before if someone is walking a reservation (which I disagree with, but that's another conversation). Nowhere else is going to go in the first month or so, and I'm willing to bet that during slower DVC times, there will be some availability at 7 months for certain resorts. Even now at 5 months or so, there is quite a bit of availability, especially for 1 bedroom units, at almost every resort. SSR and AKL have studios available as well.
 
nickys

nickys

Premium Member
LuvtheGoof said:
As long as you buy where you want to stay - which you should do anyway - you are really pretty much guaranteed a room at the 11 month mark. The only exception might be the value studios at AKL, which do go the first day, or even before if someone is walking a reservation (which I disagree with, but that's another conversation). Nowhere else is going to go in the first month or so, and I'm willing to bet that during slower DVC times, there will be some availability at 7 months for certain resorts. Even now at 5 months or so, there is quite a bit of availability, especially for 1 bedroom units, at almost every resort. SSR and AKL have studios available as well.
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Certain other categories can go very quickly and may require some walking.

BWV standard view (not sure about Boardwalk view); BLT standard view; AKL club level.

And you really canā€™t judge general availability by todayā€™s availability either. Normally by now October to mid Jan would be pretty much gone everywhere.
 
LuvtheGoof

LuvtheGoof

DVC Guru
Premium Member
nickys said:
Certain other categories can go very quickly and may require some walking.

BWV standard view (not sure about Boardwalk view); BLT standard view; AKL club level.

And you really canā€™t judge general availability by todayā€™s availability either. Normally by now October to mid Jan would be pretty much gone everywhere.
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True. Our BWV stays were 2 Garden View and 1 Boardwalk View (loved this view!). Standard were already gone, but we're ok with that.
 
nickys

nickys

Premium Member
LuvtheGoof said:
True. Our BWV stays were 2 Garden View and 1 Boardwalk View (loved this view!). Standard were already gone, but we're ok with that.
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It also shows that when calculating the points you need to buy, you should never rely on the cheapest category of rooms being available. Always allow for the next level up.

And by ā€œcategoryā€œ weā€™re talking ā€œviewā€.

At BLT, look at the lake view points charts
At BVW, look at the pool/garden view points charts
At AKL, look at the standard view points charts
and so on.
 

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