Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[el_super]

Josh didn’t create Covid and post Covid surge travel and inflation

LOL "covid surge" has just become the new "it's the heat" for you.

 

[GhostHost1000]

LOL "covid surge" has just become the new "it's the heat" for you.

No. See, I know this is complicated so try to follow me here.

Covid and shutdowns aren’t normal. When things opened back up. Many surged to do large vacations and enjoy life again for the first couple of years. Look it up. Not just Disney.

The heat. Now, believe it or not, the summer months are hot in Florida. Always have been. Nothing new there. 90 vs 95 with the same humidity level doesn’t feel much different.

 

[el_super]

Covid and shutdowns aren’t normal. When things opened back up. Many surged to do large vacations and enjoy life again for the first couple of years. Look it up. Not just Disney.

I'm not at all denying the COVID surge is a thing. It just seems silly to try to argue that Disney shouldn't have raised prices, and implemented crowd controls, if your basic premise here is that people would have paid any price to go. You're basically validating their attendance strategy while at the same time trying to deride it as the wrong decision.

The heat. Now, believe it or not, the summer months are hot in Florida. Always have been. Nothing new there. 90 vs 95 with the same humidity level doesn’t feel much different.

It's hotter now than it was before. And people have far more options to spend their entertainment time than standing out in the sun. It's going to have a negative impact on theme park attendance for years to come. It also nicely explains why the Disney parks in more temperate climates are not having the same attendance impacts.

It's a real thing... just like the COVID surge.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Literally... record breaking profits. This has been the problem with this thread since the beginning. Some want the lower attendance to be a referendum on the subjective quality of the experience, but it isn't. So they have to ignore the objectively good financial results the division has been posting.



In the past, they used discounts and annual passes to smooth out the extremes in attendance shifting, but without those discounts in place, you're going to see a general return back to the cyclical nature of the resort. Instead of going once or twice a year, maybe they extend that out to one trip every three or four years. That's definitely in the math for lowering the attendance overall.

People can really only stay away for so long.

You continue to prove you have no sense of the place. Past, present or future

Have you even been to wdw? Nothing you say would hint that to be the case

 

[LSLS]

I'm not at all denying the COVID surge is a thing. It just seems silly to try to argue that Disney shouldn't have raised prices, and implemented crowd controls, if your basic premise here is that people would have paid any price to go. You're basically validating their attendance strategy while at the same time trying to deride it as the wrong decision.




It's hotter now than it was before. And people have far more options to spend their entertainment time than standing out in the sun. It's going to have a negative impact on theme park attendance for years to come. It also nicely explains why the Disney parks in more temperate climates are not having the same attendance impacts.

It's a real thing... just like the COVID surge.

They don't have a strategy to decrease attendance. If they did, they wouldn't be building new lands and rides. Their strategy is to get the maximum amount of profits. And it is not working well at WDW right now, which is why you see the scramble modes going on.

 

[el_super]

Their strategy is to get the maximum amount of profits. And it is not working well at WDW right now

Maybe, but it's not bad enough to be having a significant impact on the revenue coming in. I'm sure their per cap spending is through the roof right now too, which might be a better place to be positioned for long term growth.

Like I said before, we've seen the parks when they had 20M guests per year visiting MK. We know what it's like when it's crowded beyond reason and there is no good way to do everything you want to do. For Disney though, there just wasn't any room for growth with that model, because you can't just keep cramming more and more people into the same parks.

Pushing the reset button was the only way to evolve the parks back into a growth model.

 

[Andrew25]

Regarding price and its impact on WDW attendance... has the Contempo Cafe always been priced higher than in-park QSR locations? Always though they were priced similar since they tend to offer similar options.

At the moment, Chicken Tenders from Contempo cafe are $11.19 while in-park tenders (Cosmic Ray's) are at $10.99. Is another price hike in the works?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They don't have a strategy to decrease attendance. If they did, they wouldn't be building new lands and rides. Their strategy is to get the maximum amount of profits. And it is not working well at WDW right now, which is why you see the scramble modes going on.

Heavy discounts aren’t typically a way to discourage bookings either

They never want less attendance

That is an indisputably stupid concept

 

[Saskdw]

Heavy discounts aren’t typically a way to discourage bookings either

They never want less attendance

That is an indisputably stupid concept

In a perfect world they would offer an industry leading guest experience and find that sweet spot for price. Keeping crowds reasonable and the price within the tolerance level of what people will pay for an industry leading experience.

Unfortunately that is not what's happening here.

 

[MaximumEd]

Having fewer people in the park reduces stress for guests, cast and equipment alike. It costs less and you get more value from it.

I wanna have some of whatever you’re having. In what world does fewer people in the park cost less and provide me more value?

 

[LSLS]

Maybe, but it's not bad enough to be having a significant impact on the revenue coming in. I'm sure their per cap spending is through the roof right now too, which might be a better place to be positioned for long term growth.

Like I said before, we've seen the parks when they had 20M guests per year visiting MK. We know what it's like when it's crowded beyond reason and there is no good way to do everything you want to do. For Disney though, there just wasn't any room for growth with that model, because you can't just keep cramming more and more people into the same parks.

Pushing the reset button was the only way to evolve the parks back into a growth model.

And yet, the average wait time in 2019 with all those extra guests was 27.15 minutes, the average wait time in 2022 was 28.31 minutes. So while the parks may be less crowded walking down the street, because of all the other cuts, it's having a negligible impact on your waiting in lines, which guests would care the most about.

 

[Disstevefan1]

And yet, the average wait time in 2019 with all those extra guests was 27.15 minutes, the average wait time in 2022 was 28.31 minutes. So while the parks may be less crowded walking down the street, because of all the other cuts, it's having a negligible impact on your waiting in lines, which guests would care the most about.

So Disney managed to chase away guests resulting in less folks in the parks while keeping the wait times the same.

 

[Tha Realest]

So Disney managed to chase away guests resulting in less folks in the parks while keeping the wait times the same.

I suspect part of that was due to their overly loose and generous DAS system, which is gratefully now being recalibrated.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I suspect part of that was due to their overly loose and generous DAS system, which is gratefully now being recalibrated.

Well the facts are; there are less folks in the parks and they “fixed” DAS.

Looking forward to the wait time data to see if there is any difference in the wait times.

My guess is there won’t be a significant difference.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I'm not at all denying the COVID surge is a thing. It just seems silly to try to argue that Disney shouldn't have raised prices, and implemented crowd controls, if your basic premise here is that people would have paid any price to go. You're basically validating their attendance strategy while at the same time trying to deride it as the wrong decision.




It's hotter now than it was before. And people have far more options to spend their entertainment time than standing out in the sun. It's going to have a negative impact on theme park attendance for years to come. It also nicely explains why the Disney parks in more temperate climates are not having the same attendance impacts.

It's a real thing... just like the COVID surge.

So do you think Epic will have poor attendance next year in the summer months?

 

[monothingie]

This right here. I owned a hotel less than 3 miles from main gate. We did very well and stayed at least 90% occupancy year round but.... We had several rooms that we called suites. They were in reality 2 rooms we connected. Not many people go for a higher priced "suite" at a 2 star hotel. They just wanted a room close to WDW to sleep and shower. So we sold on a non holiday weekday maybe 4 of the 12 "suites", but we almost always sold out every available regular room. In low times many of those were Disney contractors working on new stuff. You have to know how to play the game. I would encourage my staff to scan the families checking in who had good vibes and upgrade them to the empty suites. This would open another standard room which I would almost always rent out. Empty rooms DO NOT make any money! I filled every room I could every time. When I employed this strategy our occupancy was closer to 97% and our reviews soared across the board. WDW right now has no vision and is so short sighted.

The problem they have for themselves is that they've boxed themselves in with absolutely ridiculously inflated rack rates. So much so that once they start undercutting themselves with discounts they won't be able to sell anymore regular rooms and like a house of cards, it all collapses.

They tried to use the free dining and ticket gimmicks to preserve the inflated rack rates, but it appears that it hasn't made a difference.

Now they're being plain out deceptive by only offering discounts on Sunday-Thursday stays with Friday and Saturday nights remaining at rack rate. (The two most expensive and busy nights of the week)

But you can see what they've immediately done to save face is to just shutter sections of resorts and take the rooms out of inventory. Coronado, All Stars, POP/AOA, Boardwalk, Grand Floridian, AKL all have or had this going on.

I'm not sure if they still doing this, but they, to your original point, started wholesaling rooms off to third parties like Priceline and Travelocity. I don't think it made a difference.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

The two most recent promotional releases failed to generate anywhere near the projected interest and subsequent conversion into bookings. Since existing reservations that are not yet paid in full are eligible for new discounts, it's possible that there is a net-negative impact for certain parameters.

The next few promotional cycles will almost certainly be narrower in terms of availability and inclusions.

I've heard rumblings of expanded downstaffing at certain restaurants, and I believe at least some of the resort inventory reductions have recently been extended.

Not great, Bob.

 

[monothingie]

One thing they could do to triage this, is improve the exchange rate between DVC members using points for standard Hotel rooms. I'm probably way oversimplifying this also and there are probably lots difficulties in the doing this.

For the most part DVC inventory is always in high demand. Yes Saratoga and OKW and Kidani are the sometimes exceptions. But allowing DVC members to use points in a more efficient manner opens up supply on the DVC end and also could possibly encourage more demand and justify the high points cost when purchasing direct.

 

[Disstevefan1]

So do you think Epic will have poor attendance next year in the summer months?

If they stay with the ticket packages, and not offer single day tickets, EPIC will have intentionally controlled attendance.

If they allow single day tickets with no restrictions like park pass reservations, EPIC will be SUPER MOBBED because its NEW!!!

Universal allows their guests the freedom to wait on 6 hour lines

 

[Grimley1968]

In a time of high inflation and unavoidable price increases to cope with it, smarter companies find ways to increase or at least enhance the existing value of their product. Those who don't, like WDW, will suffer even when inflation eases because customers will continue to flock to companies that did enhance or increase the value of their product (or guest experience). I'm much more convinced that this is causing WDW's attendance woes more than a hot summer.

Actively reducing the value guests get out of a WDW vacation while also raising their prices to cope with inflation was 100% the wrong direction for the company to take.