Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The datapoints can be threaded together to form many narratives, and plenty here are comfortable taking things exactly as spun by the company.

Attendance is down, per-guest spending is down, and per-guest spending in high-margin segments is down more.

Onsite hotel bookings are hovering around post-9/11 levels.

Think of the margins on each $18-20 cocktail or $15 beer from the pool bar. Think of the margins on a $234/night "value" resort room whose construction has long since been amortized. Think of the margins on food / beverage when you have a family of 5 captive onsite for a week.

Now cut that volume by 20% or more.

The math is rather definitive if you try to look at it.
The actual realities of the scenario.

Now is Disney gonna go infront of a podium and say “woah…we got a big problem here…”

Of course not. What company on the planet would do that. Especially when they’ve told their bankers they are bullet proof since 2005.

That is the one glaring difference between evil Mike and Saint Bob: evil Mike would acknowledge it…and attack prices to course correct the minute they knew

Bob always has these oh so espionagy “limits”

They knew the wdw attendance was gonna tank last year…so since Slaphead was there…they messed up.

Ok. So what should have already rolled up was serious reset or promos to get the attendance back up. But he hasn’t…trying to “wait out” his trained customers. He should call his pal Moynihan…he’d learn his customers are running out of money. Adapt and survive.

Every person in the park has more intrinsic value to Disney than one priced out. It’s a mass model…and that’s how it functions.

You’ve illustrated why? Brilliantly lost opportunity costs.

But the 8 people on boards who STILL don’t get it…cause they think Robin leach will call to ask them about their dvc contract and their F-250 or A-6 …say “more money! Less people!!”

They won’t have an answer when it’s “less money! Less people!”

Then you have 2 huge problems that feed themselves. Don’t drain your pool and then hit the diving board.

 

[jpeden]

Don't you have to pay full price for your room to get the gift card?

Yes but rack at SSR was cheaper than the discounted room at AKL. Now one could argue that we could have tried to get the discount at SSR and we would have come out about the same (assuming the discount was available for the dates and room type we booked which is not a guarantee) but since we had already committed $x to this vacation we end up getting the spending money for the same amount we would have just spent at AKL.

Regardless we aren’t the person Disney is trying to target with this - we aren’t a new booking - we are an old booking switching to a more advantageous promo and gleaning the benefits of the company trying to pump up attendance. They want this to attract new bookings and I’m not sure it’s going to do that. We shall see.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Every person in the park has more intrinsic value to Disney than one priced out. It’s a mass model…and that’s how it functions.

You’ve illustrated why? Brilliantly lost opportunity costs.

Not to get too far in the weeds, but I think that a full retrospective on this disaster (I hesitate to say post-mortem, but we're close...) will show that the issue is actually much more closely related to the experience of spending money rather than the cost.

With the previous workflow, most of my guests booked a meaty package that included a Moderate or Deluxe hotel room for 5 to 7 nights, 4-5 days of tickets, the Park Hopper option, and the dining plan. They'd book with a $200 deposit and make monthly payments - grocery store gift card fuel points FTW - and were all settled up with the Mouse 30 days before they arrived. SO when they're onsite, they don't have the experience of paying bit by bit here and there. The experience of making a FastPass reservation wasn't a transaction, it was a fun (debatable) bit of planning. Dining reservations? Cool! We have credits to use. The psychology of this surely lead to more liberal swipes on souvenirs, cocktails, and extra experiences.

NOW with today's lego / modular approach, so much of the guest experience is pay-gated. You can ONLY make your (unnecessarily-rebranded) LightningLane reservations AFTER you pay for that day's access. And to make sure you KNOW just how much we're leeching off of you, we're going to make you repeat this step daily. A per person, per day upcharge in the least convenient way possible. Making a reservation for something fancy? You have to prepay. Mobile Ordering a Dole whip? Which high-interest card on file should we use?

Disney was NEVER "cheap," but it has historically presented an ease-of-use and facade of value because so much of your cost was paid up long before you arrive. My guests were typically quite aware of this and still chose to go, because it generally felt easier once they arrived.

Now? Not so much.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Yes but rack at SSR was cheaper than the discounted room at AKL. Now one could argue that we could have tried to get the discount at SSR and we would have come out about the same (assuming the discount was available for the dates and room type we booked which is not a guarantee) but since we had already committed $x to this vacation we end up getting the spending money for the same amount we would have just spent at AKL.

Regardless we aren’t the person Disney is trying to target with this - we aren’t a new booking - we are an old booking switching to a more advantageous promo and gleaning the benefits of the company trying to pump up attendance. They want this to attract new bookings and I’m not sure it’s going to do that. We shall see.

These promos are all still running thru Bob's rose-colored glasses: They don't really impact the actual cost for the guest and are engineered to barely impact the margins once the dust settles. They're simply designed to stimulate tire-kicking under the false pretense of value.

 

[JD80]

Making a reservation for something fancy? You have to prepay. Mobile Ordering a Dole whip? Which high-interest card on file should we use?

I generally agree with this sentiment and have often made your exact argument in different mediums.

Only thing I want to nitpick is what I've quoted. Reservations have gotten better (with the recent update) and I welcome the pre-pay deposit on the reservations. Too many people are sitting on them (when they are going to the restaurants) so it's a better change.

Mobile ordering is great and I don't understand the card usage in your post. People will be using the same card anyway. Who is paying cash? MDE is sloooooowly improving. It's almost usable now.

But the rest? Yes. WDW had an amazing pre-vacation cadence that no other vacation had. You had the booking window. The ADR window (180 days), the FP+ window (60 days), the Magic Band window (30 days), and then departure. No other vacation destination had you slowly gearing up to go like WDW. That's all gone now.

I hope the changes to G+ that we'll see next year will take the project management at 7AM away or at least minimize it.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

Only thing I want to nitpick is what I've quoted. Reservations have gotten better (with the recent update) and I welcome the pre-pay deposit on the reservations. Too many people are sitting on them (when they are going to the restaurants) so it's a better change.

Mobile ordering is great and I don't understand the card usage in your post. People will be using the same card anyway. Who is paying cash? MDE is sloooooowly improving. It's almost usable now.

Understood - and in isolation these things work just fine. Compared to the previous workflow where you could prepay for the DDP (or even get it for "Free" with inflated rack rates) and just give up credits, today's method adds to the inescapable feeling of nickel-and-diming. Taking the monetary concept away from these things prior to your arrival - and turning them into things like "meal credits," "snack credits," "MagicalExpress reservation," "Park Hopper availability," "FastPass reservation," et al, liberated spending and increased guest experience. Sure, most people understood that you had absolutely paid dearly for them, but removing the dollar amount and price tag once you're onsite fueled the cognitive dissonance and reality disassociation that makes it all work.

 

[Thepuma]

Yet another sh*t show at Disney.

Get up early, get to the park early - specifically to do Rise at Hollywood Studios. Do the usual wait at the gate, stampede going through the entrance...the fast walk to Rise Of The Resistance...only to find out Rise is "delayed opening"...with hundreds just waiting round not knowing if it's going to be 15 mines, 5 hours...all day?

How on earth can a major ride not be operational when the park opens?

It's garbage like this that has driven me away from Disney - it's totally inept and completely unacceptable. All these people here that have paid over $150 to get into this park and many to solely get onto this ride.

It also negates any benefit of staying in a Disney Resort and it just looks bad.

If it had technical difficulties during the day then fair enough, but to NOT have a ride up and running when the park opens is just amateurish.

Oh well, I guess this should just be expected now. It goes along with the recent theme of paying more and more to get less and less of an experience.

Well done Disney - you've managed to do it again.

 

[Thepuma]

It's gets even worse...

Having been told Rise could be down all day (they staff don't know) - we then walk all the way over to Tower Of Terror - would you believe it, THAT is also down, not working, delayed opening.

This really is totally unacceptable, Two of biggest attractions at Holywood Studios and they aren't working!!

Thank god after this holiday I won't be back to Orlando, the whole theme parks in the area are going downhill at a rate of knotts

 

[celluloid]

It's gets even worse...

Having been told Rise could be down all day (they staff don't know) - we then walk all the way over to Tower Of Terror - would you believe it, THAT is also down, not working, delayed opening.

This really is totally unacceptable, Two of biggest attractions at Holywood Studios and they aren't working!!

Thank god after this holiday I won't be back to Orlando, the whole theme parks in the area are going downhill at a rate of knotts

DHS is the worst attraction lineup in general for operations. When one main attraction is down it is a stress headache for capacity, but two of their biggest in a park that has under ten rides is just a nightmare for all.

If a thunderstorm or weather delay was a part of that at any time, than Slinky would have been down too and that is a pathetic situation. Then the Lightning lane folk all cram to the others as well.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not to get too far in the weeds, but I think that a full retrospective on this disaster (I hesitate to say post-mortem, but we're close...) will show that the issue is actually much more closely related to the experience of spending money rather than the cost.

With the previous workflow, most of my guests booked a meaty package that included a Moderate or Deluxe hotel room for 5 to 7 nights, 4-5 days of tickets, the Park Hopper option, and the dining plan. They'd book with a $200 deposit and make monthly payments - grocery store gift card fuel points FTW - and were all settled up with the Mouse 30 days before they arrived. SO when they're onsite, they don't have the experience of paying bit by bit here and there. The experience of making a FastPass reservation wasn't a transaction, it was a fun (debatable) bit of planning. Dining reservations? Cool! We have credits to use. The psychology of this surely lead to more liberal swipes on souvenirs, cocktails, and extra experiences.

NOW with today's lego / modular approach, so much of the guest experience is pay-gated. You can ONLY make your (unnecessarily-rebranded) LightningLane reservations AFTER you pay for that day's access. And to make sure you KNOW just how much we're leeching off of you, we're going to make you repeat this step daily. A per person, per day upcharge in the least convenient way possible. Making a reservation for something fancy? You have to prepay. Mobile Ordering a Dole whip? Which high-interest card on file should we use?

Disney was NEVER "cheap," but it has historically presented an ease-of-use and facade of value because so much of your cost was paid up long before you arrive. My guests were typically quite aware of this and still chose to go, because it generally felt easier once they arrived.

Now? Not so much.

No I hear ya…

In fact…I used to work dealing with this very thing.

The profit was at world of Disney…so the idea was to package the upfront costs/fees in a manner where the customer had monetarily “reset” when they showed up…
The “pain was over”…so the fun and the atmosphere loosened the wallet again.

The ride all day ticket in any amusement park was designed for just this purpose.

But as you said…that dynamic is switched off.

It’s deliberate. And a failure of Bobism. Instead of “relax them and they’ll spend”…they decided “talk about “premium”…then they’ll spend to keep up with everyone”

It’s a fundamental retinkering of “perception” over reality. And it’s failing.

Turns out…not nearly as many “whales” swimming around bay lake as they thought.

 

[Thepuma]

DHS is the worst attraction lineup in general for operations. When one main attraction is down it is a stress headache for capacity, but two of their biggest in a park that has under ten rides is just a nightmare for all.

If a thunderstorm or weather delay was a part of that at any time, than Slinky would have been down too and that is a pathetic situation. Then the Lightning lane folk all cram to the others as well.

Well, finally got on Rise (opened at 8.50).. got through to the Prisoner holding section and its gone down again, haven't moved in 15 minutes..experiencing technical delays!!

I mean come on Disney!!! - we did Rise last Friday and 3 big parts of the ride were not working!..now this.

Just close the ride for 2 or 3 days and get this ride working!!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well, finally got on Rise (opened at 8.50).. got through to the Prisoner holding section (chess board ), and its gone down again, haven't moved in 10 minutes..experiencing technical delays!!

I mean come on Disney!!!

…not that great anyway

 

[Disstevefan1]

Well, finally got on Rise (opened at 8.50).. got through to the Prisoner holding section (chess board ), and its gone down again, haven't moved in 15 minutes..experiencing technical delays!!

I mean come on Disney!!! - we did Rise last Friday and 3 big parts of the ride were not working!..now this.

Just close the ride for 2 or 3 days and get this ride working!!

It is sad that I as wall as many, many folks will never be able to experience Rise in full operation. The will always be something not working.

Will the cannons ever work again or have they been shut down permanently (a la the Yeti)?

 

[Thepuma]

Well, finally off the ride and wow...its gets worse. After a week of us being here and going on this almost daily, there are still 3 MAJOR parts of Rise not working!! How long have people been putting up with half the ride not working?

Begs the question..why was this a delayed opening if not to ensure the ride is working?

So now it seems Disney don't even care that half the ride sint working, they will still let thousands experience a much inferior ride, rather than shut it down and get it sorted.

In 6 years of coming to Orlando I've never been so disappointed and deflated at what Dosney are offering as an experience.

It's clear now...they don't give a damn about customer experience in any way shape or form....its just a money grab with little in return

 

[JD80]

Understood - and in isolation these things work just fine. Compared to the previous workflow where you could prepay for the DDP (or even get it for "Free" with inflated rack rates) and just give up credits, today's method adds to the inescapable feeling of nickel-and-diming. Taking the monetary concept away from these things prior to your arrival - and turning them into things like "meal credits," "snack credits," "MagicalExpress reservation," "Park Hopper availability," "FastPass reservation," et al, liberated spending and increased guest experience. Sure, most people understood that you had absolutely paid dearly for them, but removing the dollar amount and price tag once you're onsite fueled the cognitive dissonance and reality disassociation that makes it all work.

True - but the dining plan is coming back.

 

[mysto]

How on earth can a major ride not be operational when the park opens?

I really hate the downtime. I usually try to hit each attraction once when I go, but last time could not ride Test Track because it kept stopping. I actually think this is worse for me than all the other possible issues with the parks.

 

[Thepuma]

I've been coming regularly since Rise opened and the only thing we've ever witnessed not be working is the Cannons.

All this week the following have not worked.

1) Cannons
2) The part where Kylo amd the general are faced away from you looking out and they turn around
3) The part where Kylo gets blown inwards by a blast.

At this point they need to shut it down untill its fixed.

 

[Tha Realest]

Well, finally off the ride and wow...its gets worse. After a week of us being here and going on this almost daily, there are still 3 MAJOR parts of Rise not working!! How long have people been putting up with half the ride not working?

Begs the question..why was this a delayed opening if not to ensure the ride is working?

So now it seems Disney don't even care that half the ride sint working, they will still let thousands experience a much inferior ride, rather than shut it down and get it sorted.

In 6 years of coming to Orlando I've never been so disappointed and deflated at what Dosney are offering as an experience.

It's clear now...they don't give a damn about customer experience in any way shape or form....its just a money grab with little in return

What’s especially risible is the ride takes in hundreds of thousands of dollars a week in ILL fees and THIS is the experience and level of maintenance they permit

 

[mysto]

Now is Disney gonna go infront of a podium and say “woah…we got a big problem here…”

What would you have them do, pack em in? it can't be that simple.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What would you have them do, pack em in? it can't be that simple.

They need certain levels of attendance to generate the high PROFIT sales that come on the ground.

Yep…$18 margaritas and $35 t-shirts mass shipped from the sweatshop outside Shanghai Disneyland they get for $1.67…

So the people feed the engine.

they self promote “guest spending” and “revenue per guest” as the end all.

Those things are important…but some of that revenue/spending is higher profit…some is not. All dollars are not the same in Disney parks.

The problem with lowering attendance because your prices are too high - something inexcusable the bobs have done even though it’s a Cardinal principle no prior management ever broke - is each person becomes so much more important you can’t lose them. And since it costs more…they’ll want things. Things you won’t provide because each one has to be exploited more.

In economics…it’s called “the wheel of stupidity”