Is AK going to have 13, possibly 14 million guests a year after one full year Avatarland opens?

[GoofGoof]

That is one of the major problems with Star Wars if you ask me. I don’t think Star Wars is as big in the “kid” world as Harry Potter is. You ask a first grader someone from Star Wars and someone from Harry Potter, I would bet Harry Potter would be more known then Star Wars. Star Wars for me just seems… old. I think young adults, around my age of 19 would enjoy Harry more then Star Wars and Avatar. Just my opinion though and I’ll probably be flamed for it but… yea.

I think Potter is a lot more popular in the tween and teen world than the kid world.

StarWars is still wildly popular in the kid world. I have a first grader and he has been to multiple b-day parties with StarWars theme. Not a single one with Potter. It comes as much from Star Wars Legos and the Clone Wars cartoon as it does from the movies. Star Wars action figures are still huge too. My kids have a ton of Star Wars figures/toys and Lego sets. They have seen all the movies now, but they started getting the toys well before they had even seen the movies. For kids the toys are more important than the movies. Potter has some toys, but nothing like Star Wars.

 

[GoofGoof]

AK as a park right now pulls in 10 million a year. Until Avatarland opens, the number will only go up. In that time, AK could average another million people, so by 2017 AK is drawing 11 million, which is not far fetched. Adding Avatar and making AK open all day and night like the other parks could easily push AK to 13 million guests in the very least.

The theme park fanbase is far more devoted to Disney than anything Potter.

Jimmy Thick- Night time stroll in AK with a gleaming Pandora? I can't wait.

I'm not sure that the main goal of AK 2.0 is to boost attendance 30%+. It's to keep people at AK longer and to get them to spend more while they are there. If the attendance stayed at 11M but the majority of those people stayed 4 to 6 extra hours and ate 1 more meal the project would be a big success. I do think they are hoping for an overall boost in attendance at WDW, but let's face it if more people come to WDW the MK cannot handle them. If they spread crowds around better it would be possible to increase resort attendance without making MK uncomfortable or downright scary.

 

[danlb_2000]

AK as a park right now pulls in 10 million a year. Until Avatarland opens, the number will only go up. In that time, AK could average another million people, so by 2017 AK is drawing 11 million, which is not far fetched. Adding Avatar and making AK open all day and night like the other parks could easily push AK to 13 million guests in the very least.

The theme park fanbase is far more devoted to Disney than anything Potter.

Jimmy Thick- Night time stroll in AK with a gleaming Pandora? I can't wait.

Between 2008 and 2012 AK grew attendance by 4.58%. To get to 11 million by 2017 number they would have to grow 10%. From 2009 to 2012 they grew .5%, 1%, 1% and 2.15% in 2012. To get to the 10 % growth they would need to sustain the 2% per year growth in the year 2013 to 2017.

So if 2017 was 11,000,000, we would need to see an increase of 15% in 2018 to get to the 13,000,000 number.

All these numbers are from the TEA report.

 

[FettFan]

Question...will the floating mountains be visible from the parking lot?

Because in all honesty, I think that's one of the reasons I never went to Camp Minnie-Mickey. It's practically hidden...there was never a "weenie" to draw the crowds toward it.

 

[danlb_2000]

Between 2008 and 2012 AK grew attendance by 4.58%. To get to 11 million by 2017 number they would have to grow 10%. From 2009 to 2012 they grew .5%, 1%, 1% and 2.15% in 2012. To get to the 10 % growth they would need to sustain the 2% per year growth in the year 2013 to 2017.

So if 2017 was 11,000,000, we would need to see an increase of 15% in 2018 to get to the 13,000,000 number.

All these numbers are from the TEA report.

One more note on the numbers. In 2007, the first full year of Expedition Everest operation) AK saw a 6.5% attendance bump. First full year of operation of Toy Story Midway mania only showed an increase in DHS attendance of 1%.We will need to wait for this years numbers to see the impact of Fantasyland on MK.

 

[Prince-1]

I am thinking they will not move on a Star Wars land/area at DHS until the first new movie comes out. If the movie is a big success, and they do a good job with the Star Wars parks additions, WDW will be in a good position to continue to dominate. Yeah, HP may always beat out Avatar and Star Wars, but Disney can't build a HP park, haha.

It also seems that the attraction and draw to Uni now is just for HP. WDW has much more than that.

IF it is a big success?!?!? IF?!?!!?!? Not to many movies are guaranteed to do gigantic numbers but Star Wars Episode 7 is one if them.

 

[jonesenon4]

i think it all depends on what type of rides thy offer. thrill rides will deffinately bring people in.and the colors and lights it will offer will be a plus .im excited so yes i think it will bring people in.and on a personal note im very excited to see it big plus for animal kingdom.

 

[Horizons1]

nor doesn't mean it wont be as popular either
but how popular the IP is again means zero.....
I ask which is the better franchise Toy Story or Cars? which theme park land is better Toy Story land in hong kong or Cars land at DCA

Apples to Oranges.

 

[Jimmy Thick]

Not shocking the kids that voted star wars were typically boys and for lack of a better word geeky/gamers
So star wars would help for boys thats for sure

One forum in question, which has over 10k visitors on at any given time, is a nice 50/50 mix of both genders. Star Wars won without equal.

Iam not saying Potter is not popular, its a nice fad, but it will never be in the public imagination like Star Wars. Potter and Avatar, apples to apples.

Jimmy Thick- Without question.

 

[twebber55]

Apples to Oranges.

not really
look at the new improvements (mystic manor/grizzly run) and what they have done for Hong Kong

 

[Horizons1]

not really
look at the new improvements (mystic manor/grizzly run) and what they have done for Hong Kong

Yes, really. I am not speaking for any other lands. You wanted to compare Toy Story Land to Cars Land. This is what we will do.

You can not compare Cars Land to Toy Story Land. One is a beautifully detailed, fully fleshed-out land that is anchored by an exciting E-ticket, while also containing several C? Tickets.

The other is a small land done on the cheap consisting of minimal theming and nothing but C tickets.

In other words, you spend money to make money.

 

[danlb_2000]

Don't put a lot of faith in TEA's numbers.
....

But for the purposes of these threads it's the only actual numbers we have to work with.

 

[twebber55]

Yes, really. I am not speaking for any other lands. You wanted to compare Toy Story Land to Cars Land. This is what we will do.

You can not compare Cars Land to Toy Story Land. One is a beautifully detailed, fully fleshed-out land that is anchored by an exciting E-ticket, while also containing several C? Tickets.

The other is a small land done on the cheap consisting of minimal theming and nothing but C tickets.

In other words, you spend money to make money.

which is exactly my point
what matters is the detail and cash poured in..thank you for proving my point...now we agree
IP means squat....what you do with the land and how that IP can translate into a theme park land

 

[Horizons1]

which is exactly my point
what matters is the detail and cash poured in..thank you for proving my point...now we agree
IP means squat....what you do with the land and how that IP can translate into a theme park land

Exactly.

 

[danlb_2000]

Quoting wrong numbers is not particularly helpful.

And it's not the only numbers we have to work with. I trust Disney's legally binding financial disclosures much more than any number published by TEA.

Disney disclosed on their 10K filing that domestic theme park attendance was up 4% for the fiscal year.

During their 4 quarterly earning calls, Disney disclosed that most attendance gains for the fiscal year were at DLR, with some gains at WDW.

Iger and Rasulo could get into serious legal and financial trouble for providing materially misleading statements.

TEA's numbers are not accountable to anyone.

But that number doesn't break down by park, or even resort, and if we don't have a baseline number to work from we can't get the actual numbers from it. I am not talking about using the TEA numbers for investing decisions or something important like that, it's just for discussion.

There was actually bet made recently on these boards about Uni attendance and it was agreed to base it on the TEA numbers,so they are important to some people.

Not to mention that Jimmy appears to be using the TEA numbers, so if there are good enough for the thick one, they are good enough for me.

 

[StarWarsGirl]

I'm just hoping (and I think many will agree with me) that this new section draws enough people that Everest can shut down for a while and they will fix the Yeti.

 

[StarWarsGirl]

I think DHS will really suffer when avator opens, well at least to it gets star wars land haha in 2032 lol

Yes! I now have an excuse to bring this up!

Don't be too proud of this cinematic terror James Cameron has constructed. The ability to rip-off Ferngully is insignificant next to the power of the Force.

 

[danlb_2000]

TEA's numbers are c***. Anyone betting on TEA's numbers are betting on vapor.

Combined attendance at WDW and DLR is up 4%. That's a fact.

Cars Land was a phenomenal success last year at DLR. Another fact.

WDW's gains must be below 4%.

Where do you think TEA gets their numbers? Do you think they have someone at all 4 WDW theme parks monitoring gate clicks throughout the day 365 days of the year?

Read Disney's quarterly earning transcripts and interpret the results anyway you want but don't even remotely think that TEA's numbers are more accurate than WDW's financial disclosures.

I never said they were more accurate. I am just saying that since they are the only number we have access to that cover all the parks at both WDW and Uni, they are worth discussing. Accurate or not, I don't think you are going to be able to stop people on these boards from talking about the numbers. I will continue to use them in discussion, it's up to each person who reads to decide if they care or not.

 

[Club34]

Cannot wait to walk in AK at night again. Everest is awesome as is just the ambiance of the Asian section.

 

[draybook]

Cannot wait to walk in AK at night again. Everest is awesome as is just the ambiance of the Asian section.

My favorite part of the park at night is between EE and Dinoland, especially when the crowds are non-existent.